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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Hold My Beer said:
When has there ever been more than 40 or so teams that had a least a puncher's chance at the highest level?

Indiana — pretty much a doormat since the 1960's — just engineered the greatest two-year turnaround in College Football history.

Wherever the supersized SEC and B1G end up numbers-wise, the remaining Big XII and/or ACC schools will assuredly be allowed to tag along. Nobody's taking on that lawsuit.

But the G6 programs have no business competing in the postseason at schools with 10 or 20 times larger football budgets. They'll be priced out and rightly so
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No one's talking about the G6. They should be in their own division of college ball. I'm talking about the 20 or so teams in the P4 that would be left out (and also, the handful of historic bottom dwellers that may get the boot from the existing P2 in the future - never say never).
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
You are comparing apples to brusselsprouts.


The Big 12 gets $380M because their ratings are split across 16 teams, most of which don't draw a national audience.
A $1.4B contract is just taking the money networks are *already* spending and concentrating it into a smaller, elite group.
Here is the simple math:

1. **The Core Cash Already Exists:** Right now, ESPN pays the ACC roughly $400M, and ESPN/Fox pay the Big 12 $380M. That’s

**$780 Million** currently spent on 34 teams.

2. **Trim the Dilution:** If you cut the lower-drawing teams entirely and pack the top 16 brands into one league, the average viewership per game doubles. Networks will bump that pool to $850M ($425M each for ESPN and Fox) because every single Saturday game is a primetime ad-revenue goldmine.

The 850 million essentially what they pay now
between the two conferences, most of their money is to get the eyeballs on the top drawing teams. Big12 teams like Cincy and Houston get less than 400k viewers for non marquee games. Thats worth nothing to the networks.

3. **The Tech/CFP Cushion:** Fox and ESPN aren't paying the whole $1.4B. They only pay the $850M base. The rest comes from Big Tech (Apple/Amazon) paying $200M for Friday night streaming, and the $240M College Football Playoff pool.

the money that would go to the new deal is already being spent. You aren't asking the networks to print new money. You are telling them to stop subsidizing teams that don't draw ratings, and hand that exact same cash to the heavy hitters instead, which they would jump at the chance to do.
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I agree that one could engineer the media rights money for some of the teams to do well financially when they were successful.

But this concept won't ever get off the ground because:

1) Every ACC/Big XII school would immediately jump at the chance to join one of the P2 conferences because the overall value (not to mention security) is far, far greater — eveything from institutional prestige to branding to ticket sales to local economic impact and so on

2) SEC and B1G leadership are well aware of this dynamic and would immediately put the kibosh in any potential threat by simply inviting Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, et al while leaving the also-ran programs behind to pick up the pieces.

Thus the whole idea is a non-starter
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
You are comparing apples to brusselsprouts.


The Big 12 gets $380M because their ratings are split across 16 teams, most of which don't draw a national audience.
A $1.4B contract is just taking the money networks are *already* spending and concentrating it into a smaller, elite group.
Here is the simple math:

1. **The Core Cash Already Exists:** Right now, ESPN pays the ACC roughly $400M, and ESPN/Fox pay the Big 12 $380M. That’s

**$780 Million** currently spent on 34 teams.

2. **Trim the Dilution:** If you cut the lower-drawing teams entirely and pack the top 16 brands into one league, the average viewership per game doubles. Networks will bump that pool to $850M ($425M each for ESPN and Fox) because every single Saturday game is a primetime ad-revenue goldmine.

The 850 million is essentially what they pay RIGHT NOW
between the two conferences, most of that money is to get the eyeballs on the top drawing teams. The dregs just benefit because the conference forces the top drawing teams to subsidize the losers. Big12 teams like Cincy and Houston get less than 400k viewers for non marquee games. Thats worth nothing to the networks.

3. **The Tech/CFP Cushion:** Fox and ESPN aren't paying the whole $1.4B. They only pay the $850M base. The rest comes from Big Tech (Apple/Amazon) paying $200M for Friday night streaming, and the $240M College Football Playoff pool.

the money that would go to the new deal is already being spent. You aren't asking the networks to print new money. You are telling them to stop subsidizing teams that don't draw ratings, and hand that exact same cash to the heavy hitters instead, which they would do backflips if got the chance to do.
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I hope you are right......

That being said, you gotta tell me where you get your stash. It is amazing!
 
Hold My Beer said:
I agree that one could engineer the media rights money for some of the teams to do well when they were successful.

But this concept won't ever get off the ground because:

1) Every ACC/Big XII school would immediately jump at the chance to join one of the P2 conferences because the overall value (not to mention security) is far, far greater — eveything from institutional prestige to branding to ticket sales to local ecomomic impact and so on

2) SEC and B1G leadership are well aware of this dynamic and would immediately put the kibosh in any potential threat by simply inviting Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, et al while leaving the also-ran programs behind to pick up the pieces.

This, the whole idea is a non-starter
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That’s fine if it makes the P2 nervous and forces them to give an invite. You need some kind of leverage for the top ACC teams to avoid being forced to accept partial shares because they look desperate.
 
CaneinBroward said:
No one's talking about the G6. They should be in their own division of college ball. I'm talking about the 20 or so teams in the P4 that would be left out (and also, the handful of historic bottom dwellers that may get the boot from the existing P2 in the future - never say never).
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You could be right mi amigo

I just don't think there will be 20 or so teams left out. Probably less than five Power Conference schools if you count the Cougars and Beavers.

Looking at there being around 72-75 teams among the SEC, B1G and (likely) similarly expanded Big XII made up of the "second-tier" brands.

Don't see anybody kicked out of one of these three leagues, either. Wazzu and Oregon State didn't get shown the door; everybody else just left for greener pastures. Those greener pastures won't exist unless the super league comes to pass, which I don't believe is happening any time in the near future.

The SEC and B1G can just adjust the media rights shares to keep the more successful programs happy. No need to go through the massive headache of kicking out programs who serve the important purpose of providing mostly easy wins for the big dogs
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
That’s fine if it makes the P2 nervous and forces them to give an invite. You need some kind of leverage for the top ACC teams to avoid being forced to accept partial shares because they look desperate.
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I would be surprised if there weren't partial shares for at least a few years just because the current schools will want to be compensated for agreeing to the expansion Sankey, Petitti and the networks want.

Everybody needs to get something out the deal:

Media companies get all the best brands consolidated into two conferences

Sankey and Petitti control even larger shares of the revenue pie

SEC and B1G presidents get fatter checks for their schools

Miami and the other call-ups get immediate security with the promise of much bigger payouts in the future
 
Hold My Beer said:
I agree that one could engineer the media rights money for some of the teams to do well when they were successful.

But this concept won't ever get off the ground because:

1) Every ACC/Big XII school would immediately jump at the chance to join one of the P2 conferences because the overall value (not to mention security) is far, far greater — eveything from institutional prestige to branding to ticket sales to local ecomomic impact and so on

2) SEC and B1G leadership are well aware of this dynamic and would immediately put the kibosh in any potential threat by simply inviting Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, et al while leaving the also-ran programs behind to pick up the pieces.

Thus the whole idea is a non-starter
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For the sake of argument - let’s pretend for a moment that such a deal could be made and the ACC Deluxe Edition could mean top acc teams get 40 million more in annual payouts than the top P2 teams could in their respective conferences.

Would you still want to go the P2 because of the reputation of being the top football conferences, while leaving up to 40 million on the table?

I mean as it stands, Miami should run through the ACC with low difficulty for the forseeable future, meaning an almost guaranteed 1st round bye into the playoffs and just having to win 2 times to make to the championship game. With the travel stipend and the keep what you kill model, that puts 23 million directly into Miamis pocket. I am a simple man, I like making money and winning national championships, and prefer the easiest road to both. Don’t care if we’re in the P2 or in a refurbished ACC. Whatever gets us to the prize.

One thing I am confident about is that if we were part of the P2, we would get f#cked on a regular basis by their referees and it would make it exponentially harder to make the playoffs. Call me a crazy person but I actually think the B1G would treat us worse than the SEC (if we do join the P2 I would prefer the SEC)
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
For the sake of argument - let’s pretend for a moment that such a deal could be made and the ACC Deluxe Edition could mean top acc teams get 40 million more in annual payouts than the top P2 teams could in their respective conferences.

Would you still want to go the P2 because of the reputation of being the top football conferences, while leaving up to 40 million on the table?
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Kind of hard to answer hypotheticals, but yes to your question about choosing the SEC (or B1G) over the ACC even with latter's $40M edge initially.

For the same reason why the PGA Tour was always destined to outlast the LIV circuit. It was buiilt on much more established and secure financial ground.

That reconfigured ACC would soon fail because the lower-resource schools at the bottom end of the conference would be so overmatched due to their lack of resources as a result of the conference's financial imbalance.

(Apologies if I misinterpreted how the ACC would be run under your aforementioned scenario)
 
Hold My Beer said:
USC, UCLA, U-Dub and Oregon are all better off having left the Pac-12 for the B1G.

Same thing for us if we go to the SEC (hopefully) or Big Ten.

It's a mindset thing. Iron sharpens iron.

There are too many Triple-A programs with pearl-clutching administrators and reluctant boosters for the ACC to ever rise above what it is right now
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Miami is going to the B1G. We're not an SEC School like we might have thought of ourselves as being in the early '90's when Florida blackballed us. We're much more of a Northern School than FSU or Florida, and we match up much better with Michigan, Indiana or Taint.
 
They need to cull the herd in all conferences. Too many bottom dwelling free riders. Then create a premier league with the top 40
 
caneworld said:
They need to cull the herd in all conferences. Too many bottom dwelling free riders. Then create a premier league with the top 40
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Wins and losses are a zero-sum game and thus perennial bottom-feeders serve a purpose. Administrators (and of course coaches) like looking at the schedule in August and seeing at least a few games that are probable W's. Helps with job security.

The media-rights and CFP/March Madness shares always can (and likely will) be adjusted to appease the more successful programs.

The cellar dwellers won't gripe publicly, either. They'll just be happy to just have a seat at the big boys table
 
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Hold My Beer said:
Wins and losses are a zero-sum game and thus perennial bottom-feeders serve a purpose. Administrators (and of course coaches) like looking at the schedule in August and seeing at least a few games that are probable W's. Helps with job security.

The media-rights and CFP/March Madness shares always can (and likely will) be adjusted to appease the more successful programs.

The cellar dwellers won't gripe publicly, either. They's just be happy to just have a seat at the big boys table
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I don't know why people can't see this. The more you shrink college football to a smaller number of teams that are able to compete within a narrowed conference structure, many in that top 30-40 are going to be disappointed when they become the new bottom dwellers. Someone has to lose every game that's played. If you remove current "bottom dwellers" the losses will instead come to teams that are used to more wins. The 32-team NFL is protected from this because they have a draft and salary cap to keep competition stable. That doesn't exist in cfb.
 
Echtcane said:
I don't know why people can't see this. The more you shrink college football to a smaller number of teams that are able to compete within a narrowed conference structure, many in that top 30-40 are going to be disappointed when they become the new bottom dwellers. Someone has to lose every game that's played. If you remove current "bottom dwellers" the losses will instead come to teams that are used to more wins. The 32-team NFL is protected from this because they have a draft and salary cap to keep competition stable. That doesn't exist in cfb.
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Agreed. Plus, you need a place where the Manny Diaz's of the world go to mature as coaches. Remember, before he became a Defensive Superstar, Golden was at Temple. Yeah, though he soiled the bed here, he went on to become an in-demand DC.

Let's also be clear that the culture of football demands that it be widespread in the country, with schools be regionalized. We can't become like the European Super League idea, which would have killed off Club Football in Britain and Europe.

There's a problem with killing the goose that laid the Golden Egg here.
 
Hold My Beer said:
Kind of hard to answer hypotheticals, but yes to your question about choosing the SEC (or B1G) over the ACC even with latter's $40M edge initially.

For the same reason why the PGA Tour was always destined to outlast the LIV circuit. It was buiilt on much more established and secure financial ground.

That reconfigured ACC would soon fail because the lower-resource schools at the bottom end of the conference would be so overmatched due to their lack of resources as a result of the conference's financial imbalance.

(Apologies if I misinterpreted how the ACC would be run under your aforementioned scenario)
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I am not a golfer so I don’t know anything about LIV. I vaguely remember hearing something about Saudi Arabia trying to make a competitor to the PGA. You might be right that’s it’s a fair comparison, I can’t judge.

But I do think there is a plausible model for a 3rd major conference that pays the best teams A LOT more than than P2, the good teams still get paid more than the best teams in the P2, and bottom tier teams make far more than they do now.

Like I said, the hypothetical Big12/ACC hybrid conference wouldnt make the networks pay much more than they currently do so it’s very favorable for the networks. The big12 already has the split model 60/40 with ESPN/fox respectively so it also wouldn’t require making some exotic, “never before seen” contract arrangement. It would simply require expanding out the existing structure so that it incorporates the best teams of the ACC. ESPN is happy with the split deal because if the ACC votes to disband it could lose all the top ACC teams permanently (which is what happens if the ACC best leave for B1G), and fox is happy because they get a bunch of new teams with massive audiences.

Although the easiest thing to do would be to just dump the dregs of both conferences, you could also do something unprecedented that would make the conference unique and also make every single game carry massive implications- top 16 teams get 100 million plus, bottom 16 teams get 60 mil plus, and the last two spots of top 16 are subject to relegation. Makes a late season matchup between to 7 win teams absolute must see tv since it could mean winning or losing 50 million dollars.

Here’s the breakdown

### The 32-Team Super-League Annual Payout Matrix


| **Premier Division Elite**

*(Top 4 Teams on the Field)* | **$140,000,000** | $560,000,000 | The top 4 finishers in the Premier Division standings. Hits the absolute maximum ceiling by swallowing 100% of the league's playoff cash retention. |
|
**Premier Division Standard**
*(Remaining 12 Teams)* | **$110,000,000** | $1,320,000,000 | The teams that survive in the top flight but miss the 4-team playoff. This baseline completely clears the current Big Ten and SEC payouts. |

| **Championship Division**
*(Bottom 16 Teams)* | **$60,000,000** | $960,000,000 | The relegated teams and secondary draws. They get an immediate upgrade over current Big 12 ($39M) and ACC ($47M) averages, keeping their programs fully funded while they fight for promotion. |

### The Financial Mechanics: Where the $2.84 Billion Comes From

To fund these massive individual payouts, the combined conference leverages its scale to draw from four distinct media and postseason buckets:

* **The Linear Blockbuster ($1.4 Billion):** espn/fox Split 50/50 or use existing 60/40 big12 model.
.
Because the Premier Division features zero low-rating inventory, networks see record-breaking, weekly Saturday afternoon and primetime ad revenue.

* **The Promotion Playoff Tech Tier ($400 Million):** An exclusive package sold to Apple TV, Amazon Prime, or Netflix. Tech giants pay a massive premium to stream the post-Thanksgiving, winner-take-all 4-team tournament where Championship programs are fighting for a $50 Million promotion upgrade.

* **The Notre Dame Independent Premium ($160 Million):** NBC retains ND's home game rights, but the network pool pays out a massive premium for the high-viewership road games when the independent Irish travel to Premier stadiums. (Carriage rights means the networks could charge 4x as much to watch ND away games)

* **The Expanded Postseason Pool ($880 Million):** Total revenue secured via the College Football Playoff contract and tier-one bowl tie-ins based on the massive league’s reconstructed footprint.

> **The $50 Million Relegation Cliff:** The ultimate driver of this model is the cash gap between the tiers. If a program finishes in the bottom two of the Premier Division, they plummet from a $110M base to a $60M base. That massive penalty ensures every single regular-season game carries a high-stakes, postseason atmosphere.

Joining P2 is obviously the simplest path, but just looking at all possibilities, I do see an opportunity where the ACC/Big12 merge to make a far more interesting conference than the P2 and with substantially higher payouts.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
I am not a golfer so I don’t know anything about LIV. I vaguely remember hearing something about Saudi Arabia trying to make a competitor to the PGA. You might be right that’s it’s a fair comparison, I can’t judge.

But I do think there is a plausible model for a 3rd major conference that pays the best teams A LOT more than than P2, the good teams still get paid more than the best teams in the P2, and bottom tier teams make far more than they do now.

Like I said, the hypothetical Big12/ACC hybrid conference wouldnt make the networks pay much more than they currently do so it’s very favorable for the networks. The big12 already has the split model 60/40 with ESPN/fox respectively so it also wouldn’t require making some exotic, “never before seen” contract arrangement. It would simply require expanding out the existing structure so that it incorporates the best teams of the ACC. ESPN is happy with the split deal because if the ACC votes to disband it could lose all the top ACC teams permanently (which is what happens if the ACC best leave for B1G), and fox is happy because they get a bunch of new teams with massive audiences.

Although the easiest thing to do would be to just dump the dregs of both conferences, you could also do something unprecedented that would make the conference unique and also make every single game carry massive implications- top 16 teams get 100 million plus, bottom 16 teams get 60 mil plus, and the last two spots of top 16 are subject to relegation. Makes a late season matchup between to 7 win teams absolute must see tv since it could mean winning or losing 50 million dollars.

Here’s the breakdown

### The 32-Team Super-League Annual Payout Matrix


| **Premier Division Elite**

*(Top 4 Teams on the Field)* | **$140,000,000** | $560,000,000 | The top 4 finishers in the Premier Division standings. Hits the absolute maximum ceiling by swallowing 100% of the league's playoff cash retention. |
|
**Premier Division Standard**
*(Remaining 12 Teams)* | **$110,000,000** | $1,320,000,000 | The teams that survive in the top flight but miss the 4-team playoff. This baseline completely clears the current Big Ten and SEC payouts. |

| **Championship Division**
*(Bottom 16 Teams)* | **$60,000,000** | $960,000,000 | The relegated teams and secondary draws. They get an immediate upgrade over current Big 12 ($39M) and ACC ($47M) averages, keeping their programs fully funded while they fight for promotion. |

### The Financial Mechanics: Where the $2.84 Billion Comes From

To fund these massive individual payouts, the combined conference leverages its scale to draw from four distinct media and postseason buckets:

* **The Linear Blockbuster ($1.4 Billion):** espn/fox Split 50/50 or use existing 60/40 big12 model.
.
Because the Premier Division features zero low-rating inventory, networks see record-breaking, weekly Saturday afternoon and primetime ad revenue.

* **The Promotion Playoff Tech Tier ($400 Million):** An exclusive package sold to Apple TV, Amazon Prime, or Netflix. Tech giants pay a massive premium to stream the post-Thanksgiving, winner-take-all 4-team tournament where Championship programs are fighting for a $50 Million promotion upgrade.

* **The Notre Dame Independent Premium ($160 Million):** NBC retains ND's home game rights, but the network pool pays out a massive premium for the high-viewership road games when the independent Irish travel to Premier stadiums. (Carriage rights means the networks could charge 4x as much to watch ND away games)

* **The Expanded Postseason Pool ($880 Million):** Total revenue secured via the College Football Playoff contract and tier-one bowl tie-ins based on the massive league’s reconstructed footprint.

> **The $50 Million Relegation Cliff:** The ultimate driver of this model is the cash gap between the tiers. If a program finishes in the bottom two of the Premier Division, they plummet from a $110M base to a $60M base. That massive penalty ensures every single regular-season game carries a high-stakes, postseason atmosphere.

Joining P2 is obviously the simplest path, but just looking at all possibilities, I do see an opportunity where the ACC/Big12 merge to make a far more interesting conference than the P2 and with substantially higher payouts.
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did @TheOriginalCane hack your account or his evil twin?
 
Ispyin said:
did @TheOriginalCane hack your account or his evil twin?
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Hank Hill Lol GIF
 
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