1. Highly unlikely.
2. Absolutely yes.
3. Big 10, but because the SEC may take more teams than the Big 10, it's nice to have both options.
Yes, there are a number of ACC schools that would like to get into the AAU.
The primary issue usually revolves around "having a med school", since there is so much research money associated with a med school. And the AAU is all about research money.
USF got in because they've had a med school for a while. F$U got snubbed (I LOVE that phrase) because they only recently added a med school, and they sold it to the FL legislature as "we are going to have lots of small local campuses in north Florida, because we want to fill the practitioner gap", so F$U is a long way from having a top research-oriented med school. Clemson doesn't have a med school, and really needs to work a deal to acquire the USC-Greenville med campus. Virginia Tech MIGHT, surprisingly, get an AAU bid before F$U/Clemson.
Overall, the problem that many "college town" universities have in creating a med school from scratch is that it is incredibly expensive to do so in a less-populated area. Possibly even cost-prohibitive, especially if there are bigger cities in the state with a greater need for medical services.
Since we are finally getting around to discussing things I brought up years ago, the SEC would lock the Big 10 out of the southeast with a "jumbo expansion":
Miami
F$U
GaTech
Clemson
UNC
NC State
UVa
VaTech
Anything less than an 8-team SEC expansion gives the Big 10 a southeastern opening (including, possibly, Duke, whom the SEC likely would not take, though one could argue that Duke-NC State might be interchangeable to the SEC, but possibly not the NC legislature).
Outside of UNC-UVa to the SEC (likely to be the first domino) and Miami to the Big 10, the rest is wide open.
And for the long-term, in case Notre Dame doesn't join a conference in the next wave, I'd expect the long-term Big 10 plan to be "take Notre Dame whenever they are ready, and pair them with USF".
Great posts tOCC.
I've been on the ACC to SEC mass migration train for a couple years now.
My 2 cents on repeat:
1. The eight schools you mentioned (bold-faced above) are no doubt on Sankey's radar -- and I think it's very telling that even with the repeated UNC+UVA and FSU+Clemson speculation, we haven't heard a peep out of NC State and VA Tech. Not even after the dueling lawsuits were shelved in March and the clock officially begin ticking toward the demise of the ACC as we know it. Do folks not think there wouldn't
already be ****-raising in the North Carolina/Virginia legislatures and governor's offices if the NCSU and VT leadership knew or believed their insitutions were about to be left behind while their arch-rivals left for a promotion to the top tier of College Sports? The Wolfpack and Hokies attract a different but sizable demographic than the Heels and Hoos. Those are two large (and growing) states — and Sankey isn't gonna settle for just part of the pie while dealing with a major political headache.
2. The Miami-Duke-Georgia Tech conundrum is an interesting one for the SEC.
The pluses for each:
- Canes have a great market, a national brand and a sky-high ceiling bolstered by a renewed commitment to football.
- GT has very good academics, an easily accessible Ground Zero location for an expanded SEC while providing a second presence in Georgia (a la VT, NCSU, Clemson and FSU)
- Duke is an Ivy League quality institution with hands-down the best basketball brand in the country.
The negatives for each:
- Duke has half-assed it in football for many years. But spending $8M on a 2-year NIL deal for Darien Mensah when the Devils already had a very serviceable QB in Maalik Murphy suggests the Devils -- even with their tiny fanbase in football -- are willing to do whatever it takes not get left out of the SEC/B1G takeover.
- GT is 19 games over .500 in the ACC since the turn of the century (+31 if one sets aside the Geoff Collins debacle from 2019-22), which isn't spectacular but is certainly better than I would've anticipated and indicates the Jackets wouldn't necessarily be locked in as a
bottom-feeder free-loader.
- We all are aware of UM's negatives ... feel free to hash them out (or not)
There is, imo, also one (very) important distinction between Miami and the other two candidates:
It's doubtful UNC and NC State would be opposed to Duke also joining the SEC (knowing full well the Devils could act upon a B1G invite instead).
Same goes for Georgia wrt Georgia Tech.
"We already play Tech, that would make it a conference game while opening up our non-conference schedule and, oh yeah, they're not a threat in football -- which is the only sport we care about."
Now do the same equation as it pertains to UF and FSU. Does
anyone here think those two would be supportive or even neutral when it comes to adding Miami and a third Florida school to the SEC?
...What about Bama and UGA? Think there'd be a "yes" vote for the Canes from either of those two SEC heavyweights? Me, either.
I do think the SEC will end up bringing in a 9th school as a defacto replacement for Mizzou (B1G), but as mentioned here before I don't think it'll be an ACC member.
I believe it'll be WVU from the Big 12 for a combination of political reasons and quid pro quo.
Mountaineer alum and retired U.S. senator Joe Manchin has low-key played a major role in helping grease the skids in DC for congressional action to help meet the objectives of Sankey and his fellow power conference commissioners. And who's been in the spotlight recently dealing with Trump and others in Washington trying to set the table for favorable legislation? Nick Saban, a fellow West Virginian and Manchin's best friend since childhood.
Add WVU along with the NC and VA schools and that would put the SEC in 13 states to go along with roughly 16-17 states for the B1G, which provides the two most powerful conferences a tremendous amount of clout in the Senate
