forums

MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

Handsome Squidbum said:
F&ck off with your accusations of trolling. I started posting on UM fan forums while you were still trying to fingerbang your fat 6th grade girlfriend on the back of the school bus.

Big12 will probably raid the ACC if the ACC doesn’t survive in some form. Big12 has a joint media deal where Fox and ESPN both carry games. So from a networks perspective, what is the disincentive to tell the P2 it wants to see if UM has turned a corner or not by giving us a trial run in the B12 (whose media agreement ends in 2030). If we prove to be contenders , then we get an invite when the B12 deal runs out. If we aren’t, both networks say they dodged a bullet by not getting played by a UM admin that literally only started taking football seriously when Kirk Herbstreit publicly embarrassed UM, which resulted in the BOT being embarrassed by the snickering at the Country Club. And even then, we saw investments in football and basketball, but baseball has been the same old garbage .

We are not in a UNC situation where both B1G and SEC know if they don’t reel them in, they are going to the other conference.
We are really only be considered by the B1G. The problem is leverage. We have none, so they have the luxury of time, knowing we will still be available 7 years from now.
Click to expand...
Why would Miami be the only team in the P4 to have to get a “trial run” to get into the P2 when no other team has to? Despite us having better metrics, NIL, brand recognition, and a much larger investment in our program than almost any other schools that are considered shoe ins? It only makes sense if you ignore what we bring to the table and magnify every negative.

I’ll tell you what the incentive is for the BIG to pick us up as soon as possible. Let’s play out your scenario despite how unlikely I think it is to transpire (I’ll reiterate what I’ve said before, Miami is not going to the Big 12). FSU, Clemson, and UNC go to the Big or SEC, and we end up in the Big 12. We continue our investment and become consistent CFP contenders despite being in the Big 12. When the contract is up, we get a Big 10 invite. Except now because we’re contenders, and since we’re the only big prize left in realignment, we also get an invite from the SEC. Now because we’re contenders, the networks will put more pressure on the Big or SEC to land us. Now because we’re contenders, we have leverage and we won’t initially take a partial share. Instead, we’ll demand a full one. Now because we’re a contender, instead of getting us on the cheap just a few years earlier, the Big would have to pay up big time. And if you think both conferences would just hold out till we accepted the cheapest offer, that’d be the equivalent of two gluttons staring down the last piece of cake on a table. And we all know one of them is gonna get that piece eventually.

The incentive is pretty clear. Get us now on the cheap while they have leverage, or leave it to chance and pay an arm and a leg down the road, and maybe even lose the chance altogether. Sure, there’s the chance we don’t become a contender. That can happen and is realistic. But to me, it seems the Big would rather have a brand in its club that could very quickly appreciate in value then pass on it and regret it down the road, even if the brand doesn’t become a contender. Why do I think this? Because half of the Big is comprised of non-contender brands that we already beat out in almost every metric. And that’s with us not being great. It’ll cost them a **** of a lot more if it turns out that we’re right and they’re wrong.
 
Advertisement
Handsome Squidbum said:
I doubt you are older, but if you are, then you should be old enough to know not to post stupid accusations.
Click to expand...
It was a reasonable response to your "will still be available in 2033" comment, in my opinion. As far as age, whew, been a lot of places and done a lot of things. One of my most enjoyable summers was '67, OCS at NAS Penscola, before my senior year in college. Was supposed to be flying Phantoms, but a back injury resulted in a medical discharge and never made it into flight school. That's almost 57 years ago, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

I really do believe Miami has a legit shot at the B10 in this next go around. A lot depends on how aggressive the SEC becomes. If they take Clemson, UNC, UVA, NcSt, then good chance the B10 takes FSU + Miami.
 
Rickd said:
It was a reasonable response to your "will still be available in 2033" comment, in my opinion. As far as age, whew, been a lot of places and done a lot of things. One of my most enjoyable summers was '67, OCS at NAS Penscola, before my senior year in college. Was supposed to be flying Phantoms, but a back injury resulted in a medical discharge and never made it into flight school. That's almost 57 years ago, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

I really do believe Miami has a legit shot at the B10 in this next go around. A lot depends on how aggressive the SEC becomes. If they take Clemson, UNC, UVA, NcSt, then good chance the B10 takes FSU + Miami.
Click to expand...
Thank you for your service.
 
FL Cane said:
Why would Miami be the only team in the P4 to have to get a “trial run” to get into the P2 when no other team has to? Despite us having better metrics, NIL, brand recognition, and a much larger investment in our program than almost any other schools that are considered shoe ins? It only makes sense if you ignore what we bring to the table and magnify every negative.

I’ll tell you what the incentive is for the BIG to pick us up as soon as possible. Let’s play out your scenario despite how unlikely I think it is to transpire (I’ll reiterate what I’ve said before, Miami is not going to the Big 12). FSU, Clemson, and UNC go to the Big or SEC, and we end up in the Big 12. We continue our investment and become consistent CFP contenders despite being in the Big 12. When the contract is up, we get a Big 10 invite. Except now because we’re contenders, and since we’re the only big prize left in realignment, we also get an invite from the SEC. Now because we’re contenders, the networks will put more pressure on the Big or SEC to land us. Now because we’re contenders, we have leverage and we won’t initially take a partial share. Instead, we’ll demand a full one. Now because we’re a contender, instead of getting us on the cheap just a few years earlier, the Big would have to pay up big time. And if you think both conferences would just hold out till we accepted the cheapest offer, that’d be the equivalent of two gluttons staring down the last piece of cake on a table. And we all know one of them is gonna get that piece eventually.

The incentive is pretty clear. Get us now on the cheap while they have leverage, or leave it to chance and pay an arm and a leg down the road, and maybe even lose the chance altogether. Sure, there’s the chance we don’t become a contender. That can happen and is realistic. But to me, it seems the Big would rather have a brand in its club that could very quickly appreciate in value then pass on it and regret it down the road, even if the brand doesn’t become a contender. Why do I think this? Because half of the Big is comprised of non-contender brands that we already beat out in almost every metric. And that’s with us not being great. It’ll cost them a **** of a lot more if it turns out that we’re right and they’re wrong.
Click to expand...

Your math doesn’t quite add up. Whether they get us now or later isn’t going to make it substantially more expensive. Let’s say the media full shares are 100 million per team in the SEC and B1G. That’s the price. Add another team, the P2 teams aren’t going to dilute their shares. Network has to kick in 100 million more for each new team. The networks aren’t getting into a bidding war against each other for a particular team- espn isn’t going to offer 300 million per year to UM to steal us from Fox. So if we take partial shares (let’s say 50%) now for 5 years, then after 5 years it becomes the full 100 million.

If we go to the Big 12 and dominate for 5 years, the full offer shares to join the P2 is still 100 million. 5 years from now it costs the network the same as if we joined now. The only big difference is they would have had UM at a discount price for 5 years.

Thing is the networks could already get the milk for free without buying the proverbial cow. They both own part of the Big 12. Partial shares in the P2 are probably about the same as full shares in the Big 12. They could require the conferences to schedule UM and FSU every year ,or UM and OSU /PSU every 3 years. They would get the great ratings they want ,but without having to make a commitment to UM that over a 10 year span would cost them 1 billion dollars and risk UM doing what is has for the last 15 years. Even someone with orange and green glasses would admit that UM did not pull its weight in the ACC ,and ESPN frequently stuck us on the Ocho because no one was tuning in to watch a bad UM team play Boston College.

Again this is a question of "why would you trust that the UM administration will continue to invest in the program after it gets a P2 invite?" It wasn’t just UM being cheap for the last 15 years, we’ve been cheap since the beginning. We won despite that ,but the game changed. You have to spend to win. And as I said before- if Herbstreit doesn’t pull down UMs pants on national tv , there is a decent chance we’d still have Manny Diaz as HC. The university didn’t have sudden realization that we need to spend, it only made big changes after getting ridiculed on live tv. I dont trust the UM administration and I wouldn’t be surprised if network execs feel the same way.
 
Rickd said:
It was a reasonable response to your "will still be available in 2033" comment, in my opinion. As far as age, whew, been a lot of places and done a lot of things. One of my most enjoyable summers was '67, OCS at NAS Penscola, before my senior year in college. Was supposed to be flying Phantoms, but a back injury resulted in a medical discharge and never made it into flight school. That's almost 57 years ago, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

I really do believe Miami has a legit shot at the B10 in this next go around. A lot depends on how aggressive the SEC becomes. If they take Clemson, UNC, UVA, NcSt, then good chance the B10 takes FSU + Miami.
Click to expand...

From one veteran to another , thank you for your service, and knock it off with the insults.
 
Advertisement
Handsome Squidbum said:
Your math doesn’t quite add up. Whether they get us now or later isn’t going to make it substantially more expensive. Let’s say the media full shares are 100 million per team in the SEC and B1G. That’s the price. Add another team, the P2 teams aren’t going to dilute their shares. Network has to kick in 100 million more for each new team. The networks aren’t getting into a bidding war against each other for a particular team- espn isn’t going to offer 300 million per year to UM to steal us from Fox. So if we take partial shares (let’s say 50%) now for 5 years, then after 5 years it becomes the full 100 million.

If we go to the Big 12 and dominate for 5 years, the full offer shares to join the P2 is still 100 million. 5 years from now it costs the network the same as if we joined now. The only big difference is they would have had UM at a discount price for 5 years.

Thing is the networks could already get the milk for free without buying the proverbial cow. They both own part of the Big 12. Partial shares in the P2 are probably about the same as full shares in the Big 12. They could require the conferences to schedule UM and FSU every year ,or UM and OSU /PSU every 3 years. They would get the great ratings they want ,but without having to make a commitment to UM that over a 10 year span would cost them 1 billion dollars and risk UM doing what is has for the last 15 years. Even someone with orange and green glasses would admit that UM did not pull its weight in the ACC ,and ESPN frequently stuck us on the Ocho because no one was tuning in to watch a bad UM team play Boston College.

Again this is a question of "why would you trust that the UM administration will continue to invest in the program after it gets a P2 invite?" It wasn’t just UM being cheap for the last 15 years, we’ve been cheap since the beginning. We won despite that ,but the game changed. You have to spend to win. And as I said before- if Herbstreit doesn’t pull down UMs pants on national tv , there is a decent chance we’d still have Manny Diaz as HC. The university didn’t have sudden realization that we need to spend, it only made big changes after getting ridiculed on live tv. I dont trust the UM administration and I wouldn’t be surprised if network execs feel the same way.
Click to expand...
First, when they add us absolutely has an effect on potential revenue that the Big 10 could make or miss out on, considering the share that we would have.

Second, if the "networks could already get the milk for free without buying the proverbial cow," why even add us to begin with? Why add any team? Why would Miami agree to that and forfeit any leverage it has or any chance it has to get into another conference? Because once Miami agrees to that type of arrangement, there's no incentive whatsoever for any network to change it. If they can get the ratings they want without addings us, they'll never add us to begin with.

Also, the past doesn't matter to the networks or the conferences. Why the school choose to make this investment doesn't matter, what actually matters is that the school has made the investment to begin with. We have the $$$, funding, NIL, and backing to compete with any school in the country. The final of the equation piece is those investments turning into positive on the field results. There's plenty of metrics to trust this version of UM's admin with its financial commitment to CFB, at the least.

You can certainly disagree with me and believe that the past does matter or that we won't get picked in this round of realignment. What I don't understand though is why you think Miami is the equivalent of a toxic asset with nothing to offer. Like anything, we have drawbacks, but you don't seem to believe we have anything whatsoever to offer the Big. That, or we have to do some penance in the Big 12 to meet a standard that no other team in realignment has ever been held to. Which also begs the question, why do you want us in the Big 12 so bad? This isn't meant as a negative comment or anything like that, just that in reading through some of your posts, all your roads lead to the Big 12, so I'm curious why you think that's the best landing spot for us.
 
FL Cane said:
What I don't understand though is why you think Miami is the equivalent of a toxic asset with nothing to offer.
Click to expand...

The UM admin made it a toxic asset by 20 years of neglect. If I told you in 2004 that UM would have one 10 win season and one division title in the next 20 years, you would think that the only possible explanation is that UM got the death penalty. It would be somewhat comforting if that was the simple answer. But sadly it’s an even worse answer. Complete and total incompetence at the highest levels. The reality is that it was just bad hire after another, passing over far better coaches because they weren’t "UM guys".

I think UM has plenty to offer but the expansion is a game of musical chairs. Other teams offer a lot too. No one disputes that FSU and UNC are the two most coveted ACC programs for the P2. No knows how many teams the B1G or SEC want to add right now. We are in ok shape if the B1G takes 4 teams, but If the B1G only takes two teams, I personally don’t think we control our fate- it’s all depends on what happens with other teams. If the B1G is taking two teams and gets FSU and UNC, I think we’re screwed until the next expansion, whenever that is. If the B1G takes 4 teams and it includes FSU and UNC, we still have a fair shot at being one of the last two selections. If the SEC takes FSU and UNC, that is the best scenario possible for UM because I think it all but guarantees a B1G invitation. It’s just probabilities.

So I’m not saying UM is a totally unattractive program, Im saying that once upon a time we had the juice to reject the SEC and tell them we were going to play in the smart conference instead. We don’t have that kind of juice right now and unfortunately we have to sit quietly and hope we get thrown a bone. I don’t like it .
 
Advertisement
Handsome Squidbum said:
The UM admin made it a toxic asset by 20 years of neglect. If I told you in 2004 that UM would have one 10 win season and one division title in the next 20 years, you would think that the only possible explanation is that UM got the death penalty. It would be somewhat comforting if that was the simple answer. But sadly it’s an even worse answer. Complete and total incompetence at the highest levels. The reality is that it was just bad hire after another, passing over far better coaches because they weren’t "UM guys".

I think UM has plenty to offer but the expansion is a game of musical chairs. Other teams offer a lot too. No one disputes that FSU and UNC are the two most coveted ACC programs for the P2. No knows how many teams the B1G or SEC want to add right now. We are in ok shape if the B1G takes 4 teams, but If the B1G only takes two teams, I personally don’t think we control our fate- it’s all depends on what happens with other teams. If the B1G is taking two teams and gets FSU and UNC, I think we’re screwed until the next expansion, whenever that is. If the B1G takes 4 teams and it includes FSU and UNC, we still have a fair shot at being one of the last two selections. If the SEC takes FSU and UNC, that is the best scenario possible for UM because I think it all but guarantees a B1G invitation. It’s just probabilities.

So I’m not saying UM is a totally unattractive program, Im saying that once upon a time we had the juice to reject the SEC and tell them we were going to play in the smart conference instead. We don’t have that kind of juice right now and unfortunately we have to sit quietly and hope we get thrown a bone. I don’t like it .
Click to expand...
Everything hinges on what the SEC does in this next round. If the B10 succeeds in grabbing FSU & Clemson and the SEC takes UNC / UVA and stops ... then we are stuck in a weak ACC most likely for some time, unless the math works on leaving a very weak ACC (new media deal without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA might be ?? $25M per year?), and it made $$ sense to join the B12. Really hoping that the SEC takes 4 to get to 20, and those 4 are Clemson, UNC, UVA, NC State. That would give us a decent shot at moving to the B10 with FSU. Heck, right now Stanford is calling the B10 and probably Cal as well, trying to get in for minimal share due to the perception that the ACC is going to implode. IF the ACC does implode ... how many programs can the B10 and SEC absorb by 2026 given current media deals? The SEC has been dragging their feet on going to 9 conference games.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
4 games a year, which may not be scheduled every season (other than FSU) justifies paying for 100 million per year for a team that, if the trend of the last 15 years continues, could hover around .500 in perpetuity? Look I am a UM fan so I’ll put the most positive spin on it to any outsiders. But here in the family, truth is I can see a network saying , "UM will still be available in 2033. We will have a much better idea by then of whether this sudden surge in investment was window dressing or is permanent.”

Let me ask you- let’s say you were best friends with a girl who was a knockout for a few years. She put on a little weight for a while, but lost it and was looking great again for around 5 years. Then she got enormously fat for 15 years and had to use one of those motorized carts to shop at Walmart. Now she discovered Ozempic and has slimmed back down and is a super MILF. You are a single guy , and she says she wants to get married and settle down with you. Do you jump at the chance and put a ring on her finger, or do you flirt for a few years to find out whether she only lost weight to catch your eye and trick you into getting married,or if she made a real permanent lifestyle change?
Click to expand...
He gained, and then lost, @Paranos attention all in a single porst.

Well done.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
4 games a year, which may not be scheduled every season (other than FSU) justifies paying for 100 million per year for a team that, if the trend of the last 15 years continues, could hover around .500 in perpetuity? Look I am a UM fan so I’ll put the most positive spin on it to any outsiders. But here in the family, truth is I can see a network saying , "UM will still be available in 2033. We will have a much better idea by then of whether this sudden surge in investment was window dressing or is permanent.”

Let me ask you- let’s say you were best friends with a girl who was a knockout for a few years. She put on a little weight for a while, but lost it and was looking great again for around 5 years. Then she got enormously fat for 15 years and had to use one of those motorized carts to shop at Walmart. Now she discovered Ozempic and has slimmed back down and is a super MILF. You are a single guy , and she says she wants to get married and settle down with you. Do you jump at the chance and put a ring on her finger, or do you flirt for a few years to find out whether she only lost weight to catch your eye and trick you into getting married,or if she made a real permanent lifestyle change?
Click to expand...
IMG_6892.jpeg

IMG_6820.jpeg
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
Rickd said:
Everything hinges on what the SEC does in this next round. If the B10 succeeds in grabbing FSU & Clemson and the SEC takes UNC / UVA and stops ... then we are stuck in a weak ACC most likely for some time, unless the math works on leaving a very weak ACC (new media deal without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA might be ?? $25M per year?), and it made $$ sense to join the B12. Really hoping that the SEC takes 4 to get to 20, and those 4 are Clemson, UNC, UVA, NC State. That would give us a decent shot at moving to the B10 with FSU. Heck, right now Stanford is calling the B10 and probably Cal as well, trying to get in for minimal share due to the perception that the ACC is going to implode. IF the ACC does implode ... how many programs can the B10 and SEC absorb by 2026 given current media deals? The SEC has been dragging their feet on going to 9 conference games.
Click to expand...

Good post. The thing that worries me greatly , maybe more so than it does others, is that as you say , a lot of this is out of our hands. You seem to agree that UMs fate depends on the conferences getting (or not getting) certain teams. It doesn’t look like we are in the B1Gs top 2 and probably not on the SECs list at all (though I hope I am wrong).

Again I’m not saying UM is an unattractive program, just that we have to wait and hope that the SEC takes certain teams off the table for the B1G. There is a real possibility that we’re going to be stuck in the ACC or the slightly better option of the Big 12 if we don’t catch some breaks.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
Good post. The thing that worries me greatly , maybe more so than it does others, is that as you say , a lot of this is out of our hands. You seem to agree that UMs fate depends on the conferences getting (or not getting) certain teams. It doesn’t look like we are in the B1Gs top 2 and probably not on the SECs list at all (though I hope I am wrong).

Again I’m not saying UM is an unattractive program, just that we have to wait and hope that the SEC takes certain teams off the table for the B1G. There is a real possibility that we’re going to be stuck in the ACC or the slightly better option of the Big 12 if we don’t catch some breaks.
Click to expand...
Wow. Far cry from from what everyone thought at the beginning. We're making noise this year on the field, minds will change.
 
Advertisement
Advertisement
Back
Top