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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

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Rickd said:
I just believe that there has been some degree of horse trading going on between FOX / ESPN intermingling realignment and CFP.
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Absolutely — and the same goes for the conference commissioners in Sankey and Petitti.

A lot of folks think the "magic number" is 20 for the SEC and B1G, but imo it's gonna be 24 each.
  • Consolidates and thus controls more of the big-name sports brands and prestigious academic brands
  • Additional inventory to pump up the overall viewership numbers for both linear TV and digital streaming with SEC Network and B1G Network platforms
  • Nine conference games in football (2 permanent opponents, play the other 21 schools once home and one away in a 6-year span)
  • Four 6-team "regionalized" divisions is ideal for non-revenue sports (and perhaps basketball, too)

Respectfully disagree with those who insist ESPN and FOX are calling all the shots here; IMO, it's ultimately the decision of Greg Sankey and Tony Petiitt who have four key constituencies of varying significance:
  • Media partners writing the big checks and wanting programs that move the viewership needle
  • University Presidents prioritizing academic prestige, collegial relationships and the like
  • Athletic Directors juggling multiple priorities, including filling luxury suites, selling season tickets and generating excitement (see big brand successful programs coming to town) while also keeping their jobs (need weaker opponents mid-tier schools feel good about beating)
  • Governors and state legislatures who don't want School B left behind if School A gets called up to the SEC or B1G (see UNC/NC State and UVA/VA Tech in particular, but FSU and Clemson, too, if they were actually in real danger of being left behind)
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
Thats my hope, but I think you are vastly underestimating the strength of Disney's position. They have barely lifted a finger so far in the litigation besides accusing FSU of committing a felony for trying to publish trade secrets, probably because they know the purpose of the lawsuits is to get the acc to settle.

You have competing lawsuits in different states, my guess is they end up with exactly opposite results, then it goes to more litigation. All parties know this, so I expect a settlement soon. FSU + Clemson go to the SEC. That ends the chance of getting out of the acc via a court declaring the GOR void.

So then we try to go to dissolution, but with FSU and Clemson out, it will be tough to get a majority. The worst case scenario is if UNC and NC St get invites to the SEC as well, and espn pays their way like it did for Texas/Oklahoma . We can't block the move. And if the Carolina schools leave, we have no shot at dissolving the conference.

At that point our only hope is that espn declines to pick up the option and then that ends the GOR, and we can walk.

But what happens if the majority of the remaining teams ( plus some possible new additions) tell ESPN "We'll agree to take a haircut if you extend the deal." We don't have the votes to block it. Again, we are putting our fate in the hands of the other acc teams. I don't like sitting back and hope others with different interests solve our problems.

The B1G is the grand prize, but so many things have to fall in line for that to happen that it's like putting all your life savings into lottery tickets. If you are managing risk, then you have to ask, is it better to push espn to let us join the big 12 now with full shares , or do we stay in the acc and put our life savings in a lottery ticket- hoping that espn doesn't pick up the option, other acc teams don't make a deal behind our backs locking us into the acc, and the B1G extends an invitation with full shares? Everyone has a different tolerance for risk. Mine just happens to be very low.
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Why would you cement yourself in a conference with permanently lower payouts when you can get into the P2? The BIG at a 20% share is infinitely better than the Big 12 at full. Also if you’re so risk averse that you choose to basically kill yourself, what’s the point.

Managing risk means that you do not choose the option that will annihilate your program. Once you go down that path there’s no way back. Also it’s nowhere near a lottery ticket to get into the BIG. That’s completely off the mark.
 
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Ispyin said:
You legally can’t do that dude in the way you’re implying.
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Legally? Come on, everything has been discussed by FOX and ESPN as part of the CFP negotiations. Also, going forward, I believe you have to look at the "ACC Bylaws" as almost fictional documents that neither FSU or Clemson will pay much attention to since a). The ACC has had NO issue acting on multiple occasions as thought the bylaws didn't exist b). The schools were ruled NOT to have any fiduciary responsibility to the conference or members.

Right now the ACC and FSU / Clemson are in a staring match. ESPN wants NOTHING to do with the suits going forward as they don't want the highly secret ESPN media agreement to be bared to all via discovery. We are entering uncharted waters, with ****ed off universities who have been lied to, had pertinent facts hidden from them, had the ACC act illegally without adhering to bylaws , and a ****ed off ESPN that didn't want the 3 schools added, and seems to be at a point where keeping the ACC media agreement alive, just is no longer worth the effort, cost, and distraction.

Right now they are running BIG events ... The Masters. The SECN. Enhancing the SECN by adding a couple of key ACC programs, and letting the ACC go, would likely be very attractive and is something I believe they are getting ready to do if the ACC doesn't "settle" soon with FSU & Clemson. All very entertaining for sure.
 
TpaBayFlyFisher said:
Every time I look I hope there is an official statement that we are joining the B1G in 2026….
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Patience Calm Down GIF by Brat TV
 
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FL Cane said:
The BIG at a 20% share is infinitely better than the Big 12 at full.
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How do you figure? The Big 12 deal is only for six years and ends in 2031. It pays out approximately 50 million per school, not including CFP money. If the B1G is paying out 100 million per year (it's doesn't get north of 90 million until 2028 but I'll round up in your favor) and offers UM 20% shares for four years then 100% shares for the following two, you think giving up more than $100+ million in revenue and being able to move conferences in 2031 if we don't like the Big 12's new contract offer is the better option?

You must be including non monetary factors, because at 20% share in the B1G, UM would be losing a massive amount of money compared to if we had joined the Big 12 at full shares.

Are you valuing something non tangible like "conference prestige" as being worth 20-30 million per year in your math ?
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
How do you figure? The Big 12 deal is only for six years and ends in 2031. It pays out approximately 50 million per school, not including CFP money. If the B1G is paying out 100 million per year (it's doesn't get north of 90 million until 2028 but I'll round up in your favor) and offers UM 20% shares for four years then 100% shares for the following two, you think giving up more than $100+ million in revenue and being able to move conferences in 2031 if we don't like the Big 12's new contract offer is the better option?

You must be including non monetary factors, because at 20% share in the B1G, UM would be losing a massive amount of money compared to if we had joined the Big 12 at full shares.

Are you valuing something non tangible like "conference prestige" as being worth 20-30 million per year in your math ?
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What if ESPN and Fox can't pay SEC and Big10 teams the payouts because the ad dollars just aren't there????
 
Small picture stuff.

Have UM file suit in NY state with a RICO act against ESPN and B1G Fox for colluding on CFP payouts and bidding.

With Leticia on our side lol we get a 1 billion or I put pinky up ….mhaaahaaaa 1 trillion dollar settlement.

We work with Amazon as an independent for all streaming services and promotions. They have inside the U like HBO has their program for the NFL. We work on athletic apparel with the Amazon logo as we can buy out adidas.

I kid. I kid.
 
fraggle said:
...the ACC wins in court?
...FSU and Clemson end up with no invites?
...the 2024 schedules get cancelations?
...neither the Big or SEC want more teams?
...our recent history leaves us off anyone's desirable list? ( we have been insignificant for 20 plus years).

Personally I don't like what is happening to college football. Oklahoma and Nebraska started this fiasco and now butt hurt fsu is expanding it. I am happy with being in the ACC for all our sports. If you boil it down the bottom line is not the fan, not the students, but just about the MONEY! Face it, no matter if it is SEC or B1G we will be the smaller fish in a B1G pond (or SEC pond)!
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fail old man GIF
 
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Empirical Cane said:
What if ESPN and Fox can't pay SEC and Big10 teams the payouts because the ad dollars just aren't there????
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There is that as well. Cable TV is dying, but we keep looking at this as if Fox and ESPN have infinite money and will happily agree to proportionally increase the payouts to the SEC and Big 10. If the networks don't see new teams as being worth 100 million per year each in ad revenue (which is what is has to be to keep adding teams), will the conferences agree to get a haircut? Its one thing to say the B1G loves UM, it's other to say Fox Sports sees UM as being worth 100 million in ad revenue. They aren't the same thing.

I think it's more realistic that ESPN/Fox would agree to paying an extra $50 million per year for UM in the Big 12 than that either network would pay $100 million for UM to go to the P2. It's still a huge risk on their part - everyone says "just wait til we start winning and our TV ratings will go through the roof." We have been saying that for 20 years now. I have my doubts that the networks will be eager to invest 600-700 million on UM (assuming full shares in the P2 for 6-7 years) based on the hope that Mario Cristobal is the real deal. And before I get accused of being a troll, I'm not saying Cristobal is doomed to failure, I'm saying that businesses don't usually make half billion dollar decisions lightly.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
How do you figure? The Big 12 deal is only for six years and ends in 2031. It pays out approximately 50 million per school, not including CFP money. If the B1G is paying out 100 million per year (it's doesn't get north of 90 million until 2028 but I'll round up in your favor) and offers UM 20% shares for four years then 100% shares for the following two, you think giving up more than $100+ million in revenue and being able to move conferences in 2031 if we don't like the Big 12's new contract offer is the better option?

You must be including non monetary factors, because at 20% share in the B1G, UM would be losing a massive amount of money compared to if we had joined the Big 12 at full shares.

Are you valuing something non tangible like "conference prestige" as being worth 20-30 million per year in your math ?
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You take the short term revenue loss for the long term gain. The Big 12 is a death sentence for Miami football. By the time you could hypothetically move you’re nearly six years behind other peer P2 teams. Also, bold to think the Big or SEC will want to expand with the next contract. You get in as soon as you can. Conference prestige and access to the playoff absolutely matters. Again, the Big 12 would be a death sentence. There’s no way around it. You can’t say join the equivalent of Tier 2 CFB and hope you get picked up nearly six years later. You do whatever you need to get in asap.

It’s a permanent loss of prestige and relegation to Tier 2 level football. Recruiting will crater and the program would be done for. There is no long game here. You do everything you can to get into the BIG or SEC, even if that means taking barely any revenue for a few years.
 
fraggle said:
...the ACC wins in court?
...FSU and Clemson end up with no invites?
...the 2024 schedules get cancelations?
...neither the Big or SEC want more teams?
...our recent history leaves us off anyone's desirable list? ( we have been insignificant for 20 plus years).

Personally I don't like what is happening to college football. Oklahoma and Nebraska started this fiasco and now butt hurt fsu is expanding it. I am happy with being in the ACC for all our sports. If you boil it down the bottom line is not the fan, not the students, but just about the MONEY! Face it, no matter if it is SEC or B1G we will be the smaller fish in a B1G pond (or SEC pond)!
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You were my muse for Porster 2.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
There is that as well. Cable TV is dying, but we keep looking at this as if Fox and ESPN have infinite money and will happily agree to proportionally increase the payouts to the SEC and Big 10. If the networks don't see new teams as being worth 100 million per year each in ad revenue (which is what is has to be to keep adding teams), will the conferences agree to get a haircut? Its one thing to say the B1G loves UM, it's other to say Fox Sports sees UM as being worth 100 million in ad revenue. They aren't the same thing.

I think it's more realistic that ESPN/Fox would agree to paying an extra $50 million per year for UM in the Big 12 than that either network would pay $100 million for UM to go to the P2. It's still a huge risk on their part - everyone says "just wait til we start winning and our TV ratings will go through the roof." We have been saying that for 20 years now. I have my doubts that the networks will be eager to invest 600-700 million on UM (assuming full shares in the P2 for 6-7 years) based on the hope that Mario Cristobal is the real deal. And before I get accused of being a troll, I'm not saying Cristobal is doomed to failure, I'm saying that businesses don't usually make half billion dollar decisions lightly.
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Why would Miami willingly take tens of millions of dollars in revenue loss year to year compared to our biggest competitors, with the hope of being the equivalent of six years late to the party? You take the revenue loss now to get into the conference that’ll give you major long term gains.

Also, why is it always the worst case scenario with us? If we’re not getting into the P2, does that mean you believe that only FSU and Clemson are getting taken in the next round of expansion? Because our metrics are better than any other team that’s not them.
 
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