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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

Reading one "connected" guy on Warchant ... he says the FSU to the B10 deal is done and the exit fee (ACC fee) will be partially paid by the B10 and some financing. Announcement will be made when appropriate due to several legal matters (believe it has to do with ACC conference payout / distribution issues). @Genetics56 is saying that he is hearing that Clemson is SEC bound and he has no information on details from that program or the SEC ... just believes that they will get a partial share for 5 years, the exit fee will be "financed" by the SEC, and GOR will be worked out "in house" by ESPN since they have the rights and broadcast both ACC and SEC games. Therefore GOR not an issue with Clemson and for FSU FOX will negotiate with ESPN. As far as "travel partners" for FSU to the B10 and Clemson to the SEC ... anybody's guess. Could be Miami with FSU to the Big 10 and UNC with Clemson to the SEC. So far just rumors and more speculation.

ACC fans can hope that in the aftershock of the ACC "snub" by the CFP committee that there is a mood to go nuclear, blow up the ACC, with 6 programs going to the B12 and 4 or more to the P2.
 
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Rickd said:
Reading one "connected" guy on Warchant ... he says the FSU to the B10 deal is done and the exit fee (ACC fee) will be partially paid by the B10 and some financing. Announcement will be made when appropriate due to several legal matters (believe it has to do with ACC conference payout / distribution issues). @Genetics56 is saying that he is hearing that Clemson is SEC bound and he has no information on details from that program or the SEC ... just believes that they will get a partial share for 5 years, the exit fee will be "financed" by the SEC, and GOR will be worked out "in house" by ESPN since they have the rights and broadcast both ACC and SEC games. Therefore GOR not an issue with Clemson and for FSU FOX will negotiate with ESPN. As far as "travel partners" for FSU to the B10 and Clemson to the SEC ... anybody's guess. Could be Miami with FSU to the Big 10 and UNC with Clemson to the SEC. So far just rumors and more speculation.

ACC fans can hope that in the aftershock of the ACC "snub" by the CFP committee that there is a mood to go nuclear, blow up the ACC, with 6 programs going to the B12 and 4 or more to the P2.
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The Genetics guy is dangerous. He knows a little and then extrapolates it into all these prognostications. He's batting 0-10 thus far.
 
ssvir said:
The Genetics guy is dangerous. He knows a little and then extrapolates it into all these prognostications. He's batting 0-10 thus far.
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Disagree ... he has very solid B10 contacts. He has been all in on the fact that the B10 wants to expand and become a legit national conference ... and also the fact that the "southern tier" would have been launched by now if it weren't for the crazy ACC contract with the $100 M + exit fee and the separate issues surrounding the GOR. The "how and when" it all happens is closely guarded by all directly involved.
 
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Tony4Canes said:
What's your list??
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Uhhh...it's not "my list". And "my list" is not a list being pushed by one of Pete Thamel's sources at UVa.

To put UVa in the second slot of ANY list is beyond insane. It's just nuts. It's not supported by the demographics, it's not supported by the TV ratings, and I'm not sure why anyone still believes the old "Rutgers will deliver the NYC market, and Maryland will deliver the DMV market" nonsense.

UVa ONLY has value to the Big 10 in the sense that it opens up a new market for them, BUT SO WOULD VATECH. Oh, and SO WOULD MIAMI/F$U IN FLORIDA. So if the argument is "Virginia activates the Big 10 contractual clause that says the Big 10 gets more carriage fees in any new state it goes into", then...OK...I guess...but I'm still not sure why UVa, in the 12th largest state with a population of 8.6 million, would EVER EVER EVER be ranked ahead of UM and/or F$U, who would bring a "new-state" Big 10 carriage-fee activation in the THIRD-LARGEST state with a population of 22.2 millon.

So without going ANY farther, I would say that it is COMPLETE BULL**** for either the Big 10 (under the enhanced carriage-fee argument) or the SEC (under the cutthroat "we want the best teams" argument) would EVER rank UVa over F$U and/or Miami. It's beyond insane, and it is clearly biased and false.

Now, having said that, the ROUGH tiers (with caveats) are as follows:

Tier 1 - Notre Dame - Not only would any conference WANT Notre Dame, those conferences would also alter their financial arrangements and/or TV deals to make room for Notre Dame and the NBC deal. However, having said that, the new NBC deal appears to be so lucrative (and with the 12-team playoff coming) that Notre Dame does not need to join a conference at this time.

Tier 2a - F$U/North Carolina - These schools are on Tier 2a because they have the credentials and "informal" invitations to both the Big 10 and SEC. I know that Genetics would tell you that Clemson is on this tier as well, but I'm not sure that is actually true, the information I have said that Clemson has an SEC offer only. The point of creating a separation between Tiers is not to say that F$U/UNC are inherently more valuable, but that they have invitations from both conferences. F$U is the biggest TV draw of the Tier 2a/2b schools, and UNC is the smallest TV draw of the Tier 2a/2b schools.

Tier 2b - Clemson/Miami - These schools currently have one invitation only, though that could change. The SEC wants Clemson and the Big 10 wants Miami. We are the #2 and #3 TV draws among Tier 2a/2b. Whether the whole F$U/Alabama debacle changes any minds on (a) how many teams do you want to lockdown the 12-team playoff spots, and (b) how much "conference-killer" flak that the Big 2 are willing to endure, now that it is beyond obvious that nobody REALLY wants to stay in the ACC/Big 12.

Tier 3 - Virginia/Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech/maaaaybe NC State - with all due respect to other ACC programs, Georgia is the #8 state, North Carolina is the #9 state, and Virginia is the #12 state by population. Could Pitt be a Big 10 consolation prize or Louisville be an SEC consolation prize if those conferences go especially large? Sure, but the real prizes are the four schools I mentioned. This tier depends entirely on the Big 10 and/or SEC "going big".

So...having said that...

A lot depends on whether the SEC expands along with the Big 10. As made clear above, F$U/Clemson to the SEC and UM/UNC to the Big 10 make incredible sense on many different levels. Sure, the Big 10 doesn't get its pick of the litter, but this is a 2-way street and both F$U and Clemson would prefer to be in the SEC and maintain in-state rivalries, everything else being equal.

So I'll leave it at this, @Tony4Canes , if you can articulate any reasonable reason why UVa and/or UNC would be ranked higher than F$U/Clemson, feel free to articulate YOUR viewpoint. Not Pete Thamel's.

We've seen a TON of misinformation in this process. We've seen a TON of self-serving "our school is one of the most desired" nonsense. But what I've just presented are the cold hard facts about demographics and TV ratings that both the conferences and TV partners care about.

******* UVa at #2...you have GOT to be kidding me...
 
But blowing up the ACC reduces each team's chances for the CFP. All conference champs get in. By joining a larger conference, you reduce your proability of becoming an at large selection. Not stating my druthers, just looking at the numbers. If they go to a super conference for NIL, the whole design is up for grabs.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Uhhh...it's not "my list". And "my list" is not a list being pushed by one of Pete Thamel's sources at UVa.

To put UVa in the second slot of ANY list is beyond insane. It's just nuts. It's not supported by the demographics, it's not supported by the TV ratings, and I'm not sure why anyone still believes the old "Rutgers will deliver the NYC market, and Maryland will deliver the DMV market" nonsense.

UVa ONLY has value to the Big 10 in the sense that it opens up a new market for them, BUT SO WOULD VATECH. Oh, and SO WOULD MIAMI/F$U IN FLORIDA. So if the argument is "Virginia activates the Big 10 contractual clause that says the Big 10 gets more carriage fees in any new state it goes into", then...OK...I guess...but I'm still not sure why UVa, in the 12th largest state with a population of 8.6 million, would EVER EVER EVER be ranked ahead of UM and/or F$U, who would bring a "new-state" Big 10 carriage-fee activation in the THIRD-LARGEST state with a population of 22.2 millon.

So without going ANY farther, I would say that it is COMPLETE BULL**** for either the Big 10 (under the enhanced carriage-fee argument) or the SEC (under the cutthroat "we want the best teams" argument) would EVER rank UVa over F$U and/or Miami. It's beyond insane, and it is clearly biased and false.

Now, having said that, the ROUGH tiers (with caveats) are as follows:

Tier 1 - Notre Dame - Not only would any conference WANT Notre Dame, those conferences would also alter their financial arrangements and/or TV deals to make room for Notre Dame and the NBC deal. However, having said that, the new NBC deal appears to be so lucrative (and with the 12-team playoff coming) that Notre Dame does not need to join a conference at this time.

Tier 2a - F$U/North Carolina - These schools are on Tier 2a because they have the credentials and "informal" invitations to both the Big 10 and SEC. I know that Genetics would tell you that Clemson is on this tier as well, but I'm not sure that is actually true, the information I have said that Clemson has an SEC offer only. The point of creating a separation between Tiers is not to say that F$U/UNC are inherently more valuable, but that they have invitations from both conferences. F$U is the biggest TV draw of the Tier 2a/2b schools, and UNC is the smallest TV draw of the Tier 2a/2b schools.

Tier 2b - Clemson/Miami - These schools currently have one invitation only, though that could change. The SEC wants Clemson and the Big 10 wants Miami. We are the #2 and #3 TV draws among Tier 2a/2b. Whether the whole F$U/Alabama debacle changes any minds on (a) how many teams do you want to lockdown the 12-team playoff spots, and (b) how much "conference-killer" flak that the Big 2 are willing to endure, now that it is beyond obvious that nobody REALLY wants to stay in the ACC/Big 12.

Tier 3 - Virginia/Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech/maaaaybe NC State - with all due respect to other ACC programs, Georgia is the #8 state, North Carolina is the #9 state, and Virginia is the #12 state by population. Could Pitt be a Big 10 consolation prize or Louisville be an SEC consolation prize if those conferences go especially large? Sure, but the real prizes are the four schools I mentioned. This tier depends entirely on the Big 10 and/or SEC "going big".

So...having said that...

A lot depends on whether the SEC expands along with the Big 10. As made clear above, F$U/Clemson to the SEC and UM/UNC to the Big 10 make incredible sense on many different levels. Sure, the Big 10 doesn't get its pick of the litter, but this is a 2-way street and both F$U and Clemson would prefer to be in the SEC and maintain in-state rivalries, everything else being equal.

So I'll leave it at this, @Tony4Canes , if you can articulate any reasonable reason why UVa and/or UNC would be ranked higher than F$U/Clemson, feel free to articulate YOUR viewpoint. Not Pete Thamel's.

We've seen a TON of misinformation in this process. We've seen a TON of self-serving "our school is one of the most desired" nonsense. But what I've just presented are the cold hard facts about demographics and TV ratings that both the conferences and TV partners care about.

******* UVa at #2...you have GOT to be kidding me...
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Your list is good. Try to remember all of this! Of all the National writers I follow on X, he seems to be plugged in compared to others. Guess we will see eventually!
 
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Rickd said:
Disagree ... he has very solid B10 contacts. He has been all in on the fact that the B10 wants to expand and become a legit national conference ... and also the fact that the "southern tier" would have been launched by now if it weren't for the crazy ACC contract with the $100 M + exit fee and the separate issues surrounding the GOR. The "how and when" it all happens is closely guarded by all directly involved.
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How do you know that he has very solid Big Ten contacts?
 
SPAMM said:
But blowing up the ACC reduces each team's chances for the CFP. All conference champs get in. By joining a larger conference, you reduce your proability of becoming an at large selection. Not stating my druthers, just looking at the numbers. If they go to a super conference for NIL, the whole design is up for grabs.
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Sure.

BUT...

Right now, the ACC only has ONE team in the Top 12. So you would NEED to be the #1 team in the ACC (out of a 14, soon to be 17 team conference) to make the 12-team playoffs.

HOWEVER, with the soon-to-be additions of Texas/Oklahoma, the SEC has SIX of the teams in the Top 12. So now, is it EASIER to be a Top 6 (of 16) teams, easier than it is to be the #1 team out of 12 (or 17) teams? Very possibly.
 
Tony4Canes said:
Your list is good. Try to remember all of this! Of all the National writers I follow on X, he seems to be plugged in compared to others. Guess we will see eventually!
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Right. But "plugged in" is a double-edged sword, as we have seen. Meaning, if he has a GREAT connection at UVa, but that connection is using Thamel like a ***-rag, then it doesn't exactly provide for accurate reporting.
 
I'll also say this.

It is BEYOND OBVIOUS that both F$U and Clemson would be ideal and perfect fits for the SEC, though it would not "expand the SEC footprint". In every possible way, those schools "should be" SEC schools.

And while "expanding the footprint" would be great to the Big 10 when it comes to F$U/Clemson, the only reasons IN FAVOR OF having F$U and Clemson pick the Big 10 are...academic reasons...

Because on a rivalry standpoint, Clemson DEFINITELY would want to keep South Carolina as a forever-rival in the SEC. And F$U would just swap-out Miami for Florida as its "in-conference rival" while trying to schedule the "OOC rival" on an annual basis.

But the reasons for F$U/Clemson to desire the SEC are too numerous to mention.

So then the only issue becomes whether the SEC is ready to take 2 more (F$U/Clemson) and get to the "2 schools per state" model in Florida and South Carolina. And I have LONG spoken of the SEC lust for reuniting the 13 stars of the Confederate flag by taking a North Carolina and a Virginia school. But I don't think that happens unless the SEC goes "big-big" and takes 4 schools.

For the Big 10, they are at 18 schools (soon), and you would think that they would either go to 20 (short-term) and maybe 24 (short-term or long-term). If you go to 20 by taking two schools in the southeast (to pair with Rutgers/Maryland for a 4-team scheduling pod), then you would need two really strong southeastern schools. UVa doesn't get you there. If the Big 10 goes to 24 teams by taking 6 ACC teams, then there are no problems. The ONLY possible world where Miami gets "left out" is if the Big 10 somehow takes F$U and UNC, with the SEC taking Clemson and NOT MIAMI. At which point, I'm not sure who the second SEC team would be? GaTech? I realize Georgia is booming, but why take 2 Georgia schools and NOT NOT NOT 2 Florida schools? Weird.

As much as The Gator is struggling, I find it hard to believe the SEC wouldn't want a second Florida school, even if it's "Harvard of the South" Miami.
 
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kmwcane said:
How do you know that he has very solid Big Ten contacts?
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He worked for two Big 10 programs and does know on a personal level several of the B10 presidents / chancellors. He is not just a Nebraska fan who is purely speculating on conference alignment. There is a reason he has many university presidents and athletic directors following him on Twitter.
 
SPAMM said:
But blowing up the ACC reduces each team's chances for the CFP. All conference champs get in. By joining a larger conference, you reduce your proability of becoming an at large selection. Not stating my druthers, just looking at the numbers. If they go to a super conference for NIL, the whole design is up for grabs.
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WRONG. SEC and B10 bias wins out....bet the farm that 75% of the 12 teams will be SEC and B10
 
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Rickd said:
Disagree ... he has very solid B10 contacts. He has been all in on the fact that the B10 wants to expand and become a legit national conference ... and also the fact that the "southern tier" would have been launched by now if it weren't for the crazy ACC contract with the $100 M + exit fee and the separate issues surrounding the GOR. The "how and when" it all happens is closely guarded by all directly involved.
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He hasn't been correct on a single thing yet. I can say FSU is going to leave for the B10 at some point. Does that make me accurate if it happens 2 years from now and in the interim I've said 10x "there's going to be an announcement on *** date".
 
Tony4Canes said:
Depends if news from yesterday happens with FBS and NCAA break away
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I wonder how that would work with the GOR since as it is proposed, it would be an optional division for schools to join. One obvious thing could be if enough schools want to go that route and could dissolve the ACC.

One would think if this division ever becomes a reality, it is an opportunity to reset the conferences altogether as there are going to be schools in each conference that would and would not want to be part of this (ex: does Vandy want to be part of this new division and/or do the big schools want to keep supporting the likes of Vandy).
 
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