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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

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Ispyin said:
I’m not sure what he’s hearing so not here to refute that but I’m quite certain he’s wrong on the numbers behind his theory. Not a shot at Flo to be clear but the math he’s indicating even if big 12 renegotiates a new deal up because of higher value schools joining is wrong imo. I truly like Flo and all that his crew does. Maybe there is some 8d chess version where suddenly big 12 territory is no longer in bum**** with few exceptions (unlike the deal they just got a year ago with 4 larger metros and states added and yet still 🤷‍♂️)

Simplest version (and I may update this later with more detail- edit I did )
- new big 12 deal ends with 2030 football season, big ten is 2029 season I believe (maybe 2030- I’ve seen both out there but I think that’s confusion over academic vs calendar year)

- even in the worst estimate range for big ten and best estimate range for the big 12, the annual payment per team is more than twice in the big ten (thus 50% in big ten is more than 100% in big 12). Those are 71m and 31.7m respectively annualized average (there are no higher numbers reported for big 12, but there are estimates for big 10 that by the last year of deal are in the $85M to $100m+ range- remember big 12 deal starts this year, while lowest $ deal year of big ten that lowers the average already happened in 2023). Using annualized because not great sources of how it escalates per year but a good rule of thumb could be 5-10% a year.

- let’s say Miami rights are worth as much as Notre Dames (they aren’t as we all know but giving best benefit of doubt to how much a premium brand school could add vs just the same existing per school 100% share payout) all in rights under their new football deal with nbc, plus their all other sports acc revenue- that’s reported to be $67M total. Now divide that among 17 members if Miami was the only one added - if all get equal share that’s 3.9m - essentially making the two deals even if big ten gave you 50% share in worst case of annual revenue, but as I showed you above it’s more likely to still not be close to big ten especially if towards higher range of estimate… but wait there’s more

Add another ND level school? First there aren’t any from media rights perspectives but in alternate universe each team gets 7.4M, so slightly eclipsing lowest range of big ten at half share… but wait, there still more…

- cfp playoff gap- 2026 on $10m gap added on 🤷‍♂️ (at least through 2028 look in most likely)

So even if you give Miami the same juice as Notre dame in allowing big 12 to renegotiate up, and take the lowest end of big ten estimates and with only a 50% share you’re still, worst case , +$10m and very likely $25+ million better, you’re in the big ten, your contract comes up a year later and you don’t have to get excited over rivalries with Oklahoma state instead of Ohio state.

This doesn’t even touch on attendance gains at home or competing for recruits. (Can you imagine home attendance against most of big 12 teams no one cares about vs having at least in rotation usc, penn st, Ohio state, Michigan, etc - and yes I know that includes Indiana northwestern- but all those schools have tons of snowbird alumni that will fill seats)

Not trying to be a **** but this is accurate and playing to most benefit of the doubt for Miami and the big 12 $. The only way this could work for Miami vs less share in big ten would be if Miami got 125% or greater share- up to 200% share if big ten were to reach their top end projections. And there is truly no scenario where Miami (or Clemson or fsu) rights are worth more (initially) than the 67M Notre dame new deal is worth. If those numbers are off by even $10 m it still works out better in most scenarios

And even then it’s a wash on money and you’re stuck there with crap schedule and having to recruit players against the p2. Personally I’d take half share that paid $5m less through 2029 to lock into one of the two main conferences and secure the future
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Agreed, the B1G will still pay more and their TV contract gets renegotiated sooner. It would be a total no brainer to go B1G if the offer is on the table.
 
Canesrule230 said:
Agreed my fear is that he made it sound like Miami was thinking about taking the $ from the B12 and expecting to get into the BIG in 6ish years. Hoping that’s not our approach.
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Bad News Nbc GIF by Law & Order
 
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5NC4 said:
Agreed, the B1G will still pay more and their TV contract gets renegotiated sooner. It would be a total no brainer to go B1G if the offer is on the table.
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Miami and BigTen have been sexting for awhile

I’m not saying Clemson won’t go to the BigTen, but for reasons that have been outlined almost a year ago, BigTen is more interested in Miami than Clemson in a vacuum
 
Cane6 said:
Miami and BigTen have been sexting for awhile

I’m not saying Clemson won’t go to the BigTen, but for reasons that have been outlined almost a year ago, BigTen is more interested in Miami than Clemson in a vacuum
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Clemson does not have the academic acumen to be considered for B1G membership.
Not an AAU member and does not have a Medical School.
 
Canesrule230 said:
So flo just asked the question if we would rather take 50% share of big10 (30-40M) vs big12 full shares (40-50M). With the context that in 6 years we would go P2.

He also said Miami’s position will be leaking out in the next few weeks.

I don’t know how accurate those numbers are but wondering if any of the insiders had heard anything like that. I personally would take the b10 offer and move on - we can’t afford to be left out.
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Flo was insistent that the B12 offer was larger in the short term and it wasn't a mistake. He seemed to be implying why not take the full B12 share now then join the B10 with a full share in a couple of years. There are multiple problems with this approach:

  1. There's absolutely no guarantee that the B10 will accept you in a couple of years when all the spots are full
  2. If you fail to get into the P2, your program is doomed to irrelevancy
  3. The B12 money will dry up when the networks focus on the P2.
Fail Take That GIF by Fort Wayne TinCaps
 
Flo also was saying/implying the B12 schedule would overall be stronger? Don't get that at all. Without Texas and OK, what does the B12 offer from a marquee or even mid-tier standpoint?

He also said FSU would continue to schedule us even after moving to the B10. I just can't see them having a B10 schedule and then guaranteed UF/FSU OOC schedule each year. Suspect something (us) would need to give as they're legally required to play UF yearly.
 
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B10 only. Under no conditions should Miami ever consider the B12. The programming ... visibility ... recruiting ... the B10 and SEC will totally dominate within 4 years on a level that has not been experienced. The "leftover leagues" will simply become transfer portal talent suppliers for the P2, with most "proven" players transferring after they actually produce.
 
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Badbart43 said:
And Clemson has chosen the absolute WRONG moment to not engage in the transfer portal/NIL era...irrelevance is gaining ground on Dabo
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I agree... Miami + FSU adds more value to B1G then FSU + Clemson.

Winning all of Florida is way bigger than part of Florida + part of SC..I still think South Carolina actually has more SC fans than Clemson fans. Once Clemson falls back to just average or even slightly above average, their value to networks will plummet.
 
The North Carolina schools are squirming

It was only a matter of time until they joined the fight

 
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lindend said:
Flo was insistent that the B12 offer was larger in the short term and it wasn't a mistake. He seemed to be implying why not take the full B12 share now then join the B10 with a full share in a couple of years. There are multiple problems with this approach:

  1. There's absolutely no guarantee that the B10 will accept you in a couple of years when all the spots are full
  2. If you fail to get into the P2, your program is doomed to irrelevancy
  3. The B12 money will dry up when the networks focus on the P2.
Fail Take That GIF by Fort Wayne TinCaps
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Like I said love him and his shows and takes but IMO he’s off on the numbers and in a generous world at best evenish barring the scenario Miami gets way more than a 100% share in a big12 deal which I don’t see as realistic but then again welcome to 2024. I know he does have access so not sure if why he’s saying it is based on opinion or someone stating things to him that maybe I’m missing but I’m pretty **** sure I’m not far off.

Someone else wants to intelligently show me I’m wrong with numbers, have at it.

I will have no problem owning the L If I’m off but even then you’re judged by the company you keep… there are not enough good brands to jump over to big 12 to suddenly make it a p3 even if you had fsu Clemson going too (don’t think ND going would happen or change that either )
 
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Ispyin said:
Like I said love him but IMO he’s wrong on the numbers IMO and in a generous world at best evenish barring the scenario Miami gets way more than a 100% share. I know he does have access so not sure if why he’s saying it is based on opinion or someone stating things to him that maybe I’m missing but I’m pretty **** sure I’m not far off. Someone else wants to intelligently show me I’m wrong with numbers, have at it.

I will have no problem owning the L If I’m off but even then you’re judged by the company you keep… there are not enough good brands to jump over to big 12 to suddenly make it a p3 even if you had fsu Clemson going too (don’t think ND going would happen or change that either )
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I agree with you.

There’s no world where the Big 12 makes sense. And I’ve had no indication whatsoever, on what I’ve been told on this topic, that it’s a realistic option.
 
Ispyin said:
Like I said love him but IMO he’s wrong on the numbers IMO and in a generous world at best evenish barring the scenario Miami gets way more than a 100% share. I know he does have access so not sure if why he’s saying it is based on opinion or someone stating things to him that maybe I’m missing but I’m pretty **** sure I’m not far off. Someone else wants to intelligently show me I’m wrong with numbers, have at it.
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There is always the possibility that UM is leaking/floating this idea as leverage in the B10 negotiations. That to me is the most logical reasons, but I'm sure there are others.
 
Ispyin said:
Like I said love him but IMO he’s wrong on the numbers IMO and in a generous world at best evenish barring the scenario Miami gets way more than a 100% share. I know he does have access so not sure if why he’s saying it is based on opinion or someone stating things to him that maybe I’m missing but I’m pretty **** sure I’m not far off. Someone else wants to intelligently show me I’m wrong with numbers, have at it.

I will have no problem owning the L If I’m off but even then you’re judged by the company you keep… there are not enough good brands to jump over to big 12 to suddenly make it a p3 even if you had fsu Clemson going too (don’t think ND going would happen or change that either )
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He said that he wouldn’t trust the $ figures out there about conference payouts. He said the lawyer he’s talking to is plugged in with Miami and that the dollars to be offered by the B12 at full share are bigger than B10 half shares. In his opinion he would take the $ now from the B12 and move to the B10 eventually.

I have no idea if his dollar figures are correct but in my mind if you have a B10 offer you take it ala Oregon and Washington. Securing that spot is more important than short sighted dollars (if the full B12 shares really does offer more than half B10 shares which I doubt). I hope our administration isn’t being short sighted on this decision.
 
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