MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[Handsome Squidbum]

Problem is that the CURRENT DEAL only runs through June 2027. ESPN has not exercised their option to EXTEND their agreement and they have until February 2025 to do so. NO WAY they extend the CURRENT contract (paying $40M) without FSU, ND, UNC, UVA in the conference. They will simply either renegotiate a drastically lower contract (think maybe $30M for year on the upside) or let it go to another party. The current ESPN media contract only covers 2024, 2025, 2026.

Agreed espn would be unlikely to renew the contract, problem is that even if they don't extend, it still does not terminate UMs GOR to the ACC. And if the acc adds the aforementioned G5s to replace the 4 acc teams, there is no chance of having enough votes to end the GOR. So we would be stuck. Im channeling my inner "Dr Strange" and looking at all possible outcomes. I see around 9 or 10 scenarios, only one of which ends positively with UM in the P2.

The especially bad news is that in that one positive outcome scenario, our AD has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes so that we already have our spot in the P2. Unfortunately it looks to me like he's mostly focused on fundraising for new buildings and then cruising into retirement. I submit to you the JD Arteaga hire as evidence that Rad is not going to rock the boat and have our exit from the ACC already in place.

 

[ssvir]

Agreed espn would be unlikely to renew the contract, problem is that even if they don't extend, it still does not terminate UMs GOR to the ACC. And if the acc adds the aforementioned G5s to replace the 4 acc teams, there is no chance of having enough votes to end the GOR. So we would be stuck. Im channeling my inner "Dr Strange" and looking at all possible outcomes. I see around 9 or 10 scenarios, only one of which ends positively with UM in the P2.

The especially bad news is that in that one positive outcome scenario, our AD has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes so that we already have our spot in the P2. Unfortunately it looks to me like he's mostly focused on fundraising for new buildings and then cruising into retirement. I submit to you the JD Arteaga hire as evidence that Rad is not going to rock the boat and have our exit from the ACC already in place.

 

[Rickd]

Agreed espn would be unlikely to renew the contract, problem is that even if they don't extend, it still does not terminate UMs GOR to the ACC. And if the acc adds the aforementioned G5s to replace the 4 acc teams, there is no chance of having enough votes to end the GOR. So we would be stuck. Im channeling my inner "Dr Strange" and looking at all possible outcomes. I see around 9 or 10 scenarios, only one of which ends positively with UM in the P2.

The especially bad news is that in that one positive outcome scenario, our AD has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes so that we already have our spot in the P2. Unfortunately it looks to me like he's mostly focused on fundraising for new buildings and then cruising into retirement. I submit to you the JD Arteaga hire as evidence that Rad is not going to rock the boat and have our exit from the ACC already in place.

You need to read the GOR ... it is actually tied to the ESPN contract. That is one of the FSU issues in the legal action. Don't renew the contract ... GOR expires.

 

[CaneinBroward]

This board has gone from its Miami's pick to choose from SEC and Big 10, to the SEC is out, but the Big 10 is still a lock, to now Miami may be out of the P2 altogether within 6 months. God I love this place.

 

[Ispyin]

This board has gone from its Miami's pick to choose from SEC and Big 10, to the SEC is out, but the Big 10 is still a lock, to now Miami may be out of the P2 altogether within 6 months. God I love this place.

Not the board. Some on the board.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Well I'd be happy to discuss something else during the football offseason. What do you suggest, UM baseball or UM basketball?

 

[FL Cane]

I posted the rumor from the BC crowd. ACC would swap FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Louisville (first 3 P2, UL to B12) with UCONN, Memphis, Tulane, and a few other G5s.

I could definitely see that happening to the ACC as the espn deal is based on the # of teams, not any specific teams having to be part of the conference. There must be at least 15 teams in the acc or espn can renegotiate the current deal. It would be a really good deal for the Tulane type schools as they wouldn't get close to the amount of money if they stuck with their own conference.

I personally don't think we get an invitation to the P2 until the 2030s at the earliest. Even if ESPN ends the tv deal in 2027 because they have a bunch of teams in the acc they don't want, the P2 dont see the value of adding UM in the short term. Sec won't do it because it knows that it gives UM a big advantage in the local recruiting game if we can say we belong to the sec. Its to their advantage to keep us kneecapped. If the B1G gets FSU, it gets a bigger Florida market with a far bigger alummi base. From their perspective, I think they'd say there is no need to dilute the payouts by also adding UM.

So our options for the foreseeable future will be the B12, ACC, or independence. I'm not cheering for this outcome, but IMO that's where everything is pointing.

This isn’t meant as a knock on you or anything, but there is objectively nothing pointing to us getting left out of the P2 until the 2030’s. The only public info that’s out there, if you even want to call it public, is based off of conjecture and speculation. We don’t know what hand we currently have or are trying to play.

 

[Rickd]

This isn’t meant as a knock on you or anything, but there is objectively nothing pointing to us getting left out of the P2 until the 2030’s. The only public info that’s out there, if you even want to call it public, is based off of conjecture and speculation. We don’t know what hand we currently have or are trying to play.

Discussion is basically regarding "public" comments that are either "leaked and agenda driven" or pure speculation that is correct. The most widely read X source, good ol Genetics ... says the B10 will be capped at 20 this go around and that is done with FSU + ND ... while one other much smaller B10 podcaster has stated that he believes it is FSU, ND and Miami. A couple of media analysts have stated there is NO REASON to take Miami after FSU as it is not additive in carriage fees and therefore is in fact dilutive financially, and for financial reasons the B10 would be wiser to add new geographic areas that bring in added carriage fees (Texas, Georgia). So nobody knows if they will look at carriage fees vs "built in rivalry + big game programming" as the determining factor for the next go around. It has been stated that the B10 COVETS rivalries ... and Miami / FSU, Miami / ND are tremendous rivalries. Add to that the old Miami / Nebraska rivalry ... just makes too much sense.

 

[Angry Ibis]

This isn’t meant as a knock on you or anything, but there is objectively nothing pointing to us getting left out of the P2 until the 2030’s. The only public info that’s out there, if you even want to call it public, is based off of conjecture and speculation. We don’t know what hand we currently have or are trying to play.

Couldn't the same be said for the opposite -- the only information out there is 2036 GORs, so there is absolutely nothing objectively out there point us to getting out of the ACC until 2036...

It is a message board.... we are also 18 months into this thread and we are still moving in silence like a ninja.... with insiders saying relax, we got this, trust me and then getting mad when the calendar flips from 2022 to 2023 to 2024 and teams move around, and FSU goes from idiots to smart, etc. etc...

Everything takes time, but elements of this thread are certainly more like "watch the finish" than always be closing...

 

[Hold My Beer]

This board has gone from its Miami's pick to choose from SEC and Big 10, to the SEC is out, but the Big 10 is still a lock, to now Miami may be out of the P2 altogether within 6 months. God I love this place.

LOL. the only collective opinion of this board will be the countless "I told you so" posts we'll see when this thing comes to a conclusion.

 

[CaneinBroward]

LOL. the only collective opinion of this board will be the countless "I told you so" posts we'll see when this thing comes to a conclusion.

Agreed. It's just amazing how like up until a month ago, any poster that even suggested Miami could be left out was derided, mocked, called a loser, etc. The swings in confidence level are awesome.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Agreed. It's just amazing how like up until a month ago, any poster that even suggested Miami could be left out was derided, mocked, called a loser, etc. The swings in confidence level are awesome.

In 2037, they’ll be tagging a 15 year old post, and then this clearly joking post to say things didn’t age well…

 

[Hold My Beer]

Just to be on the record here, I'll stick with what I've been saying for the past year or two:

The SEC doesn't want us, but ultimately WGAF as we're going to the B1G (which "likely?" would've been the choice anyway were both options on the table).

B1G adds UM, the Leprechauns, MIzzou, KU, Cal and Stanford to get to 24

SEC adds fsu, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech, Duke, GA Tech and WVU to get to 24

The Noles back out of the annual series with UM

Miami-Pedo State becomes one of the B1G's top-marketed rivalries as we're both high-profile brands and neither has a natural rival in the conference

 

[Hold My Beer]

Just to be on the record here, I'll stick with what I've been saying for the past year or two:

The SEC doesn't want us, but ultimately WGAF as we're going to the B1G (which "likely?" would've been the choice anyway were both options on the table).

B1G adds UM, the Leprechauns, MIzzou, KU, Cal and Stanford to get to 24

SEC adds fsu, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech, Duke, GA Tech and WVU to get to 24

The Noles back out of the annual series with UM

Miami-Pedo State becomes one of the B1G's top-marketed rivalries as neither school has a natural rival in the conference

Also, me however long from now:

 

[AuoraCane]

Just to be on the record here, I'll stick with what I've been saying for the past year or two:

The SEC doesn't want us, but ultimately WGAF as we're going to the B1G (which "likely?" would've been the choice anyway were both options on the table).

B1G adds UM, the Leprechauns, MIzzou, KU, Cal and Stanford to get to 24

SEC adds fsu, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech, Duke, GA Tech and WVU to get to 24

The Noles back out of the annual series with UM

Miami-Pedo State becomes one of the B1G's top-marketed rivalries as we're both high-profile brands and neither has a natural rival in the conference

In this scenario why would BIG prefer to dilute with Cal and Stanford and opt for Kansas and MO over schools in Georgia, NC, VA with much larger populations? I understand that market size is not the primary focus, but the schools mentioned don't exactly attract eyeballs either.

 

[Ispyin]

Just to be on the record here, I'll stick with what I've been saying for the past year or two:

The SEC doesn't want us, but ultimately WGAF as we're going to the B1G (which "likely?" would've been the choice anyway were both options on the table).

B1G adds UM, the Leprechauns, MIzzou, KU, Cal and Stanford to get to 24

SEC adds fsu, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA and VA Tech, Duke, GA Tech and WVU to get to 24

The Noles back out of the annual series with UM

Miami-Pedo State becomes one of the B1G's top-marketed rivalries as we're both high-profile brands and neither has a natural rival in the conference

I agree with a bit here on Miami but there is no way that is the list. For starters Stanford burned their bridge to the big ten to the ground and extremely unlikely that changes.

Also who wants to let you know about Miami and Notre Dame as rivals as a very obvious retort to no rivals. And once upon a time Miami - Nebraska and a few others happened regularly

Think you need to hold some beers tbh

 

[Hold My Beer]

In this scenario why would BIG prefer to dilute with Cal and Stanford and opt for Kansas and MO over schools in Georgia, NC, VA with much larger populations? I understand that market size is not the primary focus, but the schools mentioned don't exactly attract eyeballs either.

I don't think the ACC schools in North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia will be available to the B1G because the SEC wants to lock down the top brands from the remaining Southern states that aren't currently in the SEC footprint.

While (for multiple reasons) the B1G isn't in position to take all of UNC+NC State and UVA+VA Tech, the SEC can do so. That's a massive political advantage for Sankey, who won't have to face blowback in the North Carolina and Virginia legislatures for leaving their "peer" schools behind.

I also think regardless of the familiar "presidents make the final realignment decisions" talk, that the big money athletic boosters will have their say so as presidents come and go and these are multi-generational decisions. Most of those rich old-timers are more likely to prefer a Southern-centric conference with many neighboring schools than a far-flung collection of institutions from the Midwest and West Coast.

For sure, UNC is the school to watch here and the most likely for other ACC schools to follow.

As far as GA Tech, I think most folks would agree Atlanta is Ground Zero for the SEC — and I don't see Sankey letting the B1G plant its flag in that spot.

Again, just my opinions on the subject. Lots of folks got one and everyone has a chance to call or not call their shots and people can revisit them when the time comes if they so choose.

 

[AuoraCane]

I don't think the ACC schools in North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia will be available to the B1G because the SEC wants to lock down the top brands from the remaining Southern states that aren't currently in the SEC footprint.

While (for multiple reasons) the B1G isn't in position to take all of UNC+NC State and UVA+VA Tech, the SEC can do so. That's a massive political advantage for Sankey, who won't have to face blowback in the North Carolina and Virginia legislatures for leaving their "peer" schools behind.

I also think regardless of the familiar "presidents make the final realignment decisions" talk, that the big money athletic boosters will have their say so as presidents come and go and these are multi-generational decisions. Most of those rich old-timers are more likely to prefer a Southern-centric conference with many neighboring schools than a far-flung collection of institutions from the Midwest and West Coast.

For sure, UNC is the school to watch here and the most likely for other ACC schools to follow.

As far as GA Tech, I think most folks would agree Atlanta is Ground Zero for the SEC — and I don't see Sankey letting the B1G plant its flag in that spot.

Again, just my opinions on the subject. Lots of folks got one and everyone has a chance to call or not call their shots and people can revisit them when the time comes if they so choose.

Your response has some valid points. thanks.

 

[Hold My Beer]

Also who wants to let you know about Miami and Notre Dame as rivals as a very obvious retort to no rivals.

To clarify, I was referring to annual rivalries to where both schools consider it necessary to keep the game on the schedule every (non-Covid) season, e.g. Michigan-Ohio State, Notre Dame-USC, Oregon-Washington, Indiana-Purdue and so on).

As opposed to where the two schools have played five or less regular-season games since 1990 because one is ducking out (e.g. UM-UF and UM-ND)

 

[Hold My Beer]

Your response has some valid points. thanks.

Gracias mi amigo. Fascinating process to watch unfold for sure.

Brains aka JeddTheFisch posted a poll here a while back and, IIRC, about 60% or so preferred the B1G over the SEC.

As a born and bred North Floridian, I'd much prefer the SEC myself ... but the Big Ten would be terrific, too.

We just gotta get out of the dead-end street ACC sooner rather than later