MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[Ispyin]

One expansion reality that you need to add to the equation is the fact that the BIG 12 is taking the tactic that they can enhance their value by becoming THE basketball conference. No way they will compete with the Big 10 or SEC in football. But right now they are after UCONN and Gonzaga for BB and could very well add Arizona and might be very interested in grabbing Duke and Louisville.

From all accounts the next Big 10 additions will be Oregon and Washington ... they have been vetted and approved but are apparently holding off as they don't want the risk (legal ... tortious interfering) of being blamed for causing the Pac 12 to implode. Expectations are the Big 12 will grab a couple of the lesser Pac 12 programs then the Big 10 will grab Oregon and Washington. That takes them to 16.

Who would be next?

Big 10: ND, Miami, UNC, Ga Tech (for geographic expansion)
SEC: Clemson, FSU, Va Tech, NC State
Big 12: Duke, Louisville, BC, Pitt, UVA

Going to be interesting to see how it actually shakes out.

Washington and Oregon are by most accounts not the next to big10. Almost all accounts have said they were passed on initially but MAY come back in play depending on if big10 goes to 24.

Could that change? Of course.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Washington and Oregon are not the next to big10. Almost all accounts have said they were passed on initially but MAY come back in play depending on if big10 goes to 24

I think there are some interesting dynamics there.

For one thing, neither Washington State nor Oregon State are in the AAU. So I wonder if those state legislatures would take protective action to link the "State" universities to the "flagship" universities, and try to push Washington/Oregon towards a recharged Pac 12 or a bigger Big 12.

I suspect that you are correct in that those schools might make it in if the Big 10 goes to 24. But I also wonder if the Big 10 wouldn't push for Stanford/Cal over Washington/Oregon. Washington would bring Seattle, but Stanford/Cal would pull the entire Bay area, plus a lot of inland California.

This ride is going to be fun...and bumpy...

 

[RVACane]

That guy appears to be a Duke/Tobacco road homer. No chance Duke & UNC are 2 of the top 3 most valuable ACC brands when most of their value is derived from hoops, and actual revenue realized from basketball is a small fraction of football revenue. If this were true, we'd hear about every conference clamoring for Duke, which I have not heard at all lol. Notice at the bottom that basketball is valued at 86% of football, which is simply not true. Has anyone on this board ever actually watched a Duke or UNC football game that didn't also feature Miami/Clemson/FSU?

Agreed on Duke but, not counting Notre Dame, UNC is considered the most desired ACC team by both the BIG 10 and SEC. It’s not even a close call for them. When @TheOriginalCane , a known UM “academic and research institutional” slurper, is agreeing, it’s guaranteed. Lol

 

[Dream School]

Agreed on Duke but, not counting Notre Dame, UNC is considered the most desired ACC team by both the BIG 10 and SEC. It’s not even a close call for them. When @TheOriginalCane , a known UM “academic and research institutional” slurper, is agreeing, it’s guaranteed. Lol

yeah UNC is a potential gem for geographic footprint, academics, and tradition. Would expand the SEC borders north, or Expand the B1G borders south into SEC country. The latter is part of the appeal for GT in the B1G, they get a foothold in Atlanta for recruiting and geography. Would Ohio State and Michigan rather the chance to play in front of Atlanta recruits every few years or Charlottesville? UMD gives the DMV foothold way more than UVA.

 

[Canesrule230]

in all seriousness, watching this episode of Miami football at the voice should be required viewing to stay in this thread. It should be pinned. So much info and context.

Thank you for this link - phenomenal breakout of data and clearly shows Miami's strength compared to other expansion targets.

 

[Ispyin]

Agreed on Duke but, not counting Notre Dame, UNC is considered the most desired ACC team by both the BIG 10 and SEC. It’s not even a close call for them. When @TheOriginalCane , a known UM “academic and research institutional” slurper, is agreeing, it’s guaranteed. Lol

THIS. IS. ABOUT. FOOTBALL. TV. $$$

its not even just about the internal school factors - it’s
also about external. Big picture.

networks want Florida over North Carolina - population

miami metro is 9 Charlotte is 23. Not even close population wise

recruiting Hotbeds - south Florida.

Big 10 alum populations- Miami
roadtrip desire for visiting schools fans. Miami.

im less and less convinced even as I try to avoid being a homer that outside of nd, Miami isn’t 2 or 3 on big 10 list.
Maybe not sec because of Florida but who knows.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Their tv and social media brand value is higher as is their academics. The SEC and BIG 10 would both claw it out for them.
Football and men’s basketball combined:

You have a flawed metric when phrases like "complicated formula" and "editorial mentions, social media, etc" are major components of something clearly overvaluing hoops in the grand scheme of things.

I don't question UNC's value in expansion but I'm always going to push back on any metric that essentially makes preposterous assertions about Dook while doing so.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Washington and Oregon are by most accounts not the next to big10. Almost all accounts have said they were passed on initially but MAY come back in play depending on if big10 goes to 24.

Could that change? Of course.

I thought so too (regarding UDub and Nike U) as it seemingly makes a lot of sense. There have been sporadic leaks in the interim though that have been along the lines of "pump your breaks on thinking more invites are guaranteed to west coast schools" and that nothing is actually imminent with either of those schools.

My opinion is that you definitely add them, raid the ACC and call it a day. Forget about most of the (non-coastal) South and Texas and "basketball schools" and label the SEC as a "regional NASCAR conference" when necessary.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

im less and less convinced even as I try to avoid being a homer that outside of nd, Miami isn’t 2 or 3 on big 10 list.
Maybe not sec because of Florida but who knows.

I'm very confused by the way that you seem to be arguing with people for no apparent reason. Perhaps it is your use of double and/or triple negatives.

I'm not sure that anyone has said otherwise.

The Big 10's top 3 are ND, UNC, and Miami, in that order. Which seems to mean that, outside of ND, Miami is 2 on the Big 10 list.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I thought so too (regarding UDub and Nike U) as it seemingly makes a lot of sense. There have been sporadic leaks in the interim though that have been along the lines of "pump your breaks on thinking more invites are guaranteed to west coast schools" and that nothing is actually imminent with either of those schools.

My opinion is that you definitely add them, raid the ACC and call it a day. Forget about most of the (non-coastal) South and Texas and "basketball schools" and label the SEC as a "regional NASCAR conference" when necessary.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I thought so too (regarding UDub and Nike U) as it seemingly makes a lot of sense. There have been sporadic leaks in the interim though that have been along the lines of "pump your breaks on thinking more invites are guaranteed to west coast schools" and that nothing is actually imminent with either of those schools.

My opinion is that you definitely add them, raid the ACC and call it a day. Forget about most of the (non-coastal) South and Texas and "basketball schools" and label the SEC as a "regional NASCAR conference" when necessary.

 

[Cane6]

I'm very confused by the way that you seem to be arguing with people for no apparent reason. Perhaps it is your use of double and/or triple negatives.

I'm not sure that anyone has said otherwise.

The Big 10's top 3 are ND, UNC, and Miami, in that order. Which seems to mean that, outside of ND, Miami is 2 on the Big 10 list.




View attachment 240369

DannyBoyCane thinks Miami remains in acc

Which seals Miami to bigten. This dude still thinks Marcus arroyo is the OC too

 

[Dari Jabs]

Agreed on Duke but, not counting Notre Dame, UNC is considered the most desired ACC team by both the BIG 10 and SEC. It’s not even a close call for them. When @TheOriginalCane , a known UM “academic and research institutional” slurper, is agreeing, it’s guaranteed. Lol

I wasn't saying UNC isn't necessarily the most desirable in their eyes (it might very well be, though I don't understand why..), just that the data in that tweet was inherently flawed.

As for UNC being the most desirable, why is that? Please don't say cable + TV markets, cable is dying quick. NFL just put Sunday Ticket on YouTube, something like that is the future.

In terms of football, they get little national media coverage, and their football tv numbers aren't great. In terms of expansion, ND is a clear cut #1 on a tier of their own. After that? In no order, I think its us, FSU, Clemson, Oregon, and Washington. I think most here have watched a game where one of the 5 aforementioned teams was the bigger 'brand' in said game. I've never watched a game where UNC was the bigger brand in a matchup, and I think the same could be said for most cfb fans. The same goes for a lot of the names getting tossed around in expansion i.e. UVA, GT, etc. As much as our team has been middling for several years now, we get good TV #s because outside our fanbase people love to hate us, and often want to watch us lose. We elicit an emotional reaction. Teams like UNC & UVA elicit no such reaction in football, I really have no opinion of either.

Ultimately, the main driver of expansion decisions is football revenue, which is primarily driven by # of eyeballs watching. I just don't see how any team outside ND + Us/FSU/Clem/UoO/UDub could increase viewership more than those 6 teams.

 

[Rickd]

Washington and Oregon are by most accounts not the next to big10. Almost all accounts have said they were passed on initially but MAY come back in play depending on if big10 goes to 24.

Could that change? Of course.

Saw the "vetted and approved" notices ... but it looks like they are simply "approved resumes" being held in hand for evaluation AFTER ACC program additions to the Big 10 are confirmed.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I wasn't saying UNC isn't necessarily the most desirable in their eyes (it might very well be, though I don't understand why..), just that the data in that tweet was inherently flawed.

As for UNC being the most desirable, why is that? Please don't say cable + TV markets, cable is dying quick. NFL just put Sunday Ticket on YouTube, something like that is the future.

In terms of football, they get little national media coverage, and their football tv numbers aren't great. In terms of expansion, ND is a clear cut #1 on a tier of their own. After that? In no order, I think its us, FSU, Clemson, Oregon, and Washington. I think most here have watched a game where one of the 5 aforementioned teams was the bigger 'brand' in said game. I've never watched a game where UNC was the bigger brand in a matchup, and I think the same could be said for most cfb fans. The same goes for a lot of the names getting tossed around in expansion i.e. UVA, GT, etc. As much as our team has been middling for several years now, we get good TV #s because outside our fanbase people love to hate us, and often want to watch us lose. We elicit an emotional reaction. Teams like UNC & UVA elicit no such reaction in football, I really have no opinion of either.

Ultimately, the main driver of expansion decisions is football revenue, which is primarily driven by # of eyeballs watching. I just don't see how any team outside ND + Us/FSU/Clem/UoO/UDub could increase viewership more than those 6 teams.

OK, let's scramble this around.

If the Big 10 invites UNC, they are (initially) getting the flagship school without any competition in the state (unless the SEC takes NC State). North Carolina is the 9th largest state and is growing.

And while I love my alma mater, the contrast is that if the Big 10 enters the Florida market with UM, we are still a private school that will have to compete with Florida in the SEC, as well as (PRESUMABLY) F$U in the SEC and UCF in the Big 12.

I've made this argument previously, it's not just "does your state have the most eyeballs", it's also whether you have enough affinity and willingness to carry support in your home market(s).

And PURELY from a sports viewership standpoing, UNC offers a couple of things that UM isn't as strong at, namely a "flagship" state school with a lot more alums, and a "lead dog" status with very little competition from Duke/Wake and who-knows-what from NC State. Whereas, Miami brings viewers BUT ALSO has to compete with 2 or 3 OTHER in-state SEC/Big 12 programs.

I think UNC can deliver a higher PERCENTAGE of viewers in a smaller state (NC is #9 in population and is about half the population of FL), compared to Miami's lower percentage of viewers in a larger state (FL is #3 in population).

Sooo...larger slice of a smaller pie vs. smaller slice of a larger pie...

 

[RVACane]

I wasn't saying UNC isn't necessarily the most desirable in their eyes (it might very well be, though I don't understand why..), just that the data in that tweet was inherently flawed.

As for UNC being the most desirable, why is that? Please don't say cable + TV markets, cable is dying quick. NFL just put Sunday Ticket on YouTube, something like that is the future.

In terms of football, they get little national media coverage, and their football tv numbers aren't great. In terms of expansion, ND is a clear cut #1 on a tier of their own. After that? In no order, I think its us, FSU, Clemson, Oregon, and Washington. I think most here have watched a game where one of the 5 aforementioned teams was the bigger 'brand' in said game. I've never watched a game where UNC was the bigger brand in a matchup, and I think the same could be said for most cfb fans. The same goes for a lot of the names getting tossed around in expansion i.e. UVA, GT, etc. As much as our team has been middling for several years now, we get good TV #s because outside our fanbase people love to hate us, and often want to watch us lose. We elicit an emotional reaction. Teams like UNC & UVA elicit no such reaction in football, I really have no opinion of either.

Ultimately, the main driver of expansion decisions is football revenue, which is primarily driven by # of eyeballs watching. I just don't see how any team outside ND + Us/FSU/Clem/UoO/UDub could increase viewership more than those 6 teams.

Because they’re considered a more desirable brand right now as the premier state school in North Carolina with a more stable following/viewership… and a better academic institution than UM. It’s known that they’re the top ACC pick for both the ACC and the SEC. If you want to believe otherwise, and think that both or either the SEC and/or ACC would pick UM over UNC then that’s fine.

 

[QuattroCane]

Because they’re considered a more desirable brand right now as the premier state school in North Carolina with a more stable following/viewership… and a better academic institution than UM. It’s known that they’re the top ACC pick for both the ACC and the SEC. If you want to believe otherwise, and think that both or either the SEC and/or ACC would pick UM over UNC then that’s fine.

How do you come to the reasoning that they're a more desirable brand? Miami has improved their basketball program and I honestly think you'd be hard pressed to find many people that would chose to watch UNC vs anybody vs Miami vs anybody. What metrics are you using when you say they have a more stable following/viewership, for basketball sure, but football...They trail Miami by approx, 4k people in average attendance over the last four years.

 

[AuoraCane]

THIS. IS. ABOUT. FOOTBALL. TV. $$$

its not even just about the internal school factors - it’s
also about external. Big picture.

networks want Florida over North Carolina - population

miami metro is 9 Charlotte is 23. Not even close population wise

recruiting Hotbeds - south Florida.

Big 10 alum populations- Miami
roadtrip desire for visiting schools fans. Miami.

im less and less convinced even as I try to avoid being a homer that outside of nd, Miami isn’t 2 or 3 on big 10 list.
Maybe not sec because of Florida but who knows.

Chapel Hill is in the Raleigh Durham Metropolitan area not Charlotte. UNC is unique that when factoring its TV draw you would need to include the whole state of North Carolina (and the 3 or 5 largest Tv markets there). As someone that has lived in both North Carolina and Florida, UNC is much more woven into the fabric of the population and culture of the state. It is very similar to Ohio State as compared to University of Florida.

 

[Tad Footeball]

OK, let's scramble this around.

If the Big 10 invites UNC, they are (initially) getting the flagship school without any competition in the state (unless the SEC takes NC State). North Carolina is the 9th largest state and is growing.

And while I love my alma mater, the contrast is that if the Big 10 enters the Florida market with UM, we are still a private school that will have to compete with Florida in the SEC, as well as (PRESUMABLY) F$U in the SEC and UCF in the Big 12.

I've made this argument previously, it's not just "does your state have the most eyeballs", it's also whether you have enough affinity and willingness to carry support in your home market(s).

And PURELY from a sports viewership standpoing, UNC offers a couple of things that UM isn't as strong at, namely a "flagship" state school with a lot more alums, and a "lead dog" status with very little competition from Duke/Wake and who-knows-what from NC State. Whereas, Miami brings viewers BUT ALSO has to compete with 2 or 3 OTHER in-state SEC/Big 12 programs.

I think UNC can deliver a higher PERCENTAGE of viewers in a smaller state (NC is #9 in population and is about half the population of FL), compared to Miami's lower percentage of viewers in a larger state (FL is #3 in population).

Sooo...larger slice of a smaller pie vs. smaller slice of a larger pie...

I get what you're saying but I think even if we accept your entire premise that national eyeballs would easily negate UNC getting a larger share of a smaller market. UNC Football simply isn't a "national brand" at this point.

Answer me this and even use the current state of both Miami and UNC Football as the test subject. Is there a single Week 1 same timeslot game against a hypothetical B1G opponent where UNC being the ACC opponent would get higher ratings than Miami in that slot even if they crush it in the local market? I don't think it would be remotely close even if Maryland was the opponent.

 

[Dari Jabs]

OK, let's scramble this around.

If the Big 10 invites UNC, they are (initially) getting the flagship school without any competition in the state (unless the SEC takes NC State). North Carolina is the 9th largest state and is growing.

And while I love my alma mater, the contrast is that if the Big 10 enters the Florida market with UM, we are still a private school that will have to compete with Florida in the SEC, as well as (PRESUMABLY) F$U in the SEC and UCF in the Big 12.

I've made this argument previously, it's not just "does your state have the most eyeballs", it's also whether you have enough affinity and willingness to carry support in your home market(s).

And PURELY from a sports viewership standpoing, UNC offers a couple of things that UM isn't as strong at, namely a "flagship" state school with a lot more alums, and a "lead dog" status with very little competition from Duke/Wake and who-knows-what from NC State. Whereas, Miami brings viewers BUT ALSO has to compete with 2 or 3 OTHER in-state SEC/Big 12 programs.

I think UNC can deliver a higher PERCENTAGE of viewers in a smaller state (NC is #9 in population and is about half the population of FL), compared to Miami's lower percentage of viewers in a larger state (FL is #3 in population).

Sooo...larger slice of a smaller pie vs. smaller slice of a larger pie...

Thank you for providing a detailed, nuanced take.

Obviously ND is the white whale here. Lets say UNC is definitively the #2 option (not saying they aren't, but like who knows what every shot-caller is actually thinking).

Not sure where you rank Miami and FSU, but expansion historically occurs in pairs. A la "the whole is greater than the sum of the parts", us and FSU are not #1 targets on an individual basis, but looking at targets in terms of packages? I agree with your point about big slice/small pie & small slice/big pie, but what about majority stake in (arguably) the biggest pie? 4 biggest states in terms of talent are Florida, Texas, Georgia, Cali. SEC has Texas/Georgia & B1G has Cali. I think ~2/3 of Florida is worth more than NC (lmk if you disagree on that notion). Wouldn't B1G prioritizing us as a package over UNC be more advantageous? Having a majority share in Florida and diminishing SEC influence, instead of the other way around, would be a massive power shift, imo. Would surely be beneficial for us.

If the B1G adds us and FSU tomorrow and no one else, I think that instantly becomes the second best conference rivalry? For the record, as much as I dislike FSU, I hope we play each other forever. With the future of cfb scheduling looking unknown, I worry us ending up in different conferences may put an end to the rivalry.