He's a very, very, very good college QB. D said it on a pod this week and I agree with him, if it wasn't for just being blessed with Cam, what he's doing at practice would be blowing people's weaves back. From everything I've heard and been told, he has been nothing short of sensational for the vast majority of camp. It's just that, everyone there just saw 1.1 for a whole year. So this is nothing new. But if Cam wasn't here last year, what he's doing on Greentree would have the building ready to burst at the seams.
I'm very, very excited and incredibly confident that this dude is going to play well enough to make the playoffs. He's got an elite arm and it's accurate as ****. However, it's not all pie in the sky. If he has some issues, here's where I have my concerns. Again, not enough to feel like he can't lead the team to the playoffs (if the rest of the dudes pull their weight too), but kind of where I think the dropoff from Cam might show up:
1. The OL will be fantastic, but when there are breakdowns and/or when defenses send a free rusher, Beck doesn't have near the escapability or pocket presence of Ward. There were a lot of times last year where Ward made things happen *in the pocket*, only to then make an insane play down the field. Shining example #1 is the play to George in the gator game. Beck can't make that play. To be fair, very, very few college QBs can. So it's not a knock on Beck, that's otherworldly talent. But those types of plays are probably going be few and far between this year, whereas Cam seemed to do that a couple times a game. He had one against Duke for a TD to X, he had one against Louisville for a long gain to X, etc. Now, this was sometimes detrimental. He held onto the ball too long at times looking for massive plays and either took sacks or turned it over. So there was a boom/bust situation there. I expect Beck to play a lot more "in structure" and not have those plays where he's evading guys in the pocket.
2. Along those same lines, his accuracy dips when he has to throw off-platform, whereas Cam's really did not. So in those times he is pressured, will he be able to evade in the pocket, and will he be able to deliver accurately? I think this will be a downgrade from what we saw last year.
3. Will the receivers be able to get open? A lot of us are thinking the ball will come out quicker, on average, versus Cam. For the reasons I said above. But for the ball to come out quick, a receiver has to be open quickly. Do we have kids who can win off the line consistently? X was elite in this area. Horton was, too. How many passes did he catch at a less than 10 yard aDOT? He used that big body well (pause), and Cam peppered him. A lot of it is Dawson, but think back to last year. We had a LOT of guys open by a considerable margin. Can this group follow suit?
4. Can we catch the football as well as we did last year? I said it time and time again, the collective group had VERY few drops. Guys made sensational catches all year, but just as importantly, they made routine catches consistently. The UGA WR struggles are well-documented. Those clowns couldn't have caught COVID in a Cuomo nursing home. The ball is going to be accurate most of the time, can the kids get open, and more importantly, can they catch the football time and time again?
These are my overall concerns for Beck and the passing game. It's almost certainly not going to be what we saw last year. We all know that. But it doesn't have to be. If the defense can be Top 25-30 (or god forbid better), and the offense can just stay in the Top 20 this year, that's one of the ~5 best teams in the country. I hope Dawson is preaching over and over, just be yourself, you don't need to do too much on this team. Make your pre-snap and post-snap reads, hit your back foot, hit MFs in the chest with footballs. If he doesn't turn the ball over, we're going to win a ton of games.
He threw 6 INTs on 417 attempts in 2023. Yes, he had McConkey and Bowers. But those dudes weren't stealing INTs from DBs. They were open, and he was hitting them, and he wasn't putting the ball in harm's way. Of the kids that year with as many attempts as Beck or more (and there were 21 such players), only 4 threw six or fewer picks. Bo Nix (3), Shedeur Sanders (3), Chandler Rogers (5), and Gunnar Watson (6).