Canes open -14.5 over the Rockets

[scrantoncane]

Yes, have to give Tulsa credit for being a good rushing team. They ran the ball well last year (5.12/attempt) and returned 91 starts on the OL for 2017 and are at (5.46/attempt) this year.

Looking at Toledo, they were not very good last yr ,ranking #93 vs the run and are #112 this year. I have to think we run , run ,run all game and just wear them out. Their O and QB are very good and we will find out if our D is for real. Right now I say they are not after giving up +300 to Bethune while FAU shut them out the next game.

I totally forgot to look at last year's run defense - I saw they gave up 400+ last weekend and figured it just skewed the stats.

That they were bad last year is encouraging. I am with you - run it all day long, keep their offense off the field, get a few stops, and we should cruise. They shouldn't stop us on more than one or two drives.

 

[CaneOil]

Toledo cannot stop the run at all. We run on them all day and score on nearly every possession. I was initially worried about this game but looking at the stats from previous Toledo games they have no answer to the running game. We roll !

They gave up 129, 109 & 423 in 3 games this season. Tulsa, who ran for 423 on them last weekend, has ran for 244, 424, 423 in its 3 games. So not sure if Toldeo can't stop the run, or Tulsa has a solid rush offense.

Toldeo looks like they have a balanced and potent offensive attack. Last weekend, they committed 15 penalties, lost the turnover battle and lost the TOP battle by more than 10 minutes, but still came out with a W because Tulsa couldn't slow them down.

From what I read, they are multi-dmiensional - they don't run to open the pass, they just take what you give them. Most of their scoring drives this season have been long, sustained drives (as opposed to long TDs), so they may very well turn to the quick pass, dink-and-dunk offense that we saw BC have success with.

Last season, their QB threw for 4100+ yards on 69% completion percentage with a 45/9 TD/Int ratio. That is no joke. He already has thrown for 1000+ yards this year, with an 8/1 ratio. They also have a 1st team all-MAC WR (Cody Thompson), who went for 64/1,300/11 TDs in 2016 and already has 22/391/4 TDs this year. They did, however, lose their LT and both starting guards from last year's squad.

The obvious differentiating factor is the quality of opponent. Toledo plays no one. Their only decent matchup in the past 2 seasons was a 55-53 loss at BYU (a game Toledo had won until a facemask penalty bailed BYU out on their last drive). Other than BYU, there is only G5 teams.

This is the type of game where, IMO, we should dictate the tempo and let our superior athletes smash them in the mouth. I would expect Walton and Homer to both go for 100+ again, and for us to win TOP by a similar margin as Tulsa did. BYU and Tulsa both busted a few long TD runs. Our OL should give them fits.

Hopefully we will see a lot more dime coverage and 4-man rushes than we did against BC. We will see this weekend whether BC was a scheme issue, or if it was just a scrimmage where Manny was ******** around in base, seeing who showed up when the lights came on. I suspect it was the latter.

Although we have been known to play down to the opponent, Toledo simply doesn't have or play against the quality of player that we have. I like us to win and cover, although not enough to bet it. Something right around the number, like 35-21.

If we only put up 35 on them we need to look for an offensive coach. If we give up 21 points without scoring 60 we better start looking for D coaches too. I just don't buy it with our athletes. This game shouldn't be close unless we play rusty all day long! We have the athletes to make this a *** whipping. At least 3 turnovers by Toledo because we will hammer them all day on both sides of the ball. JMO

 

[Novacane32000]

Already down to -12.5 and F$U is down to -11.

In Vegas it's between 12.5 and 13.5. One major casino has it at 12.5 the rest 13-13.5. My take on this game. I think this is a **** line, should be higher, maybe 21. I guess the time off kept that line down. I watched the highlights of the Toledo/Tulsa game, there is a big difference between them and a legit top 20 team which I think Miami is. Miami is a match up nightmare for Toledo.

Speed all over the place for us, Toledo has a couple players with speed that I saw. Toledo's D is just horrible, looks like a div 2 team. So many reason this line should be higher. The last time I bet on Miami was like 4 years ago against pit. I bet to make money betting on your favorite team in most cases is stupid, heart over brain. I try to find bad lines, I think this is one of them.

We might come out a little rusty but that won't last. Is Toledo really going to stop our RB's? Say what you want about BC but they have speed, they match up better against Miami for that reason alone even with inferior athletes at some positions. Do you really think Tulsa has a better offense than us? I wish we had last years bull FB and this would be a 40+ point win with a good called game. Richt needs to up his game, this is an easy one. So many reasons why this game shouldn't be close it isn't funny. I'll be betting Miami this week! Coaches, do your **** jobs and this is a runaway.

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

 

[CaneOil]

Already down to -12.5 and F$U is down to -11.

In Vegas it's between 12.5 and 13.5. One major casino has it at 12.5 the rest 13-13.5. My take on this game. I think this is a **** line, should be higher, maybe 21. I guess the time off kept that line down. I watched the highlights of the Toledo/Tulsa game, there is a big difference between them and a legit top 20 team which I think Miami is. Miami is a match up nightmare for Toledo.

Speed all over the place for us, Toledo has a couple players with speed that I saw. Toledo's D is just horrible, looks like a div 2 team. So many reason this line should be higher. The last time I bet on Miami was like 4 years ago against pit. I bet to make money betting on your favorite team in most cases is stupid, heart over brain. I try to find bad lines, I think this is one of them.

We might come out a little rusty but that won't last. Is Toledo really going to stop our RB's? Say what you want about BC but they have speed, they match up better against Miami for that reason alone even with inferior athletes at some positions. Do you really think Tulsa has a better offense than us? I wish we had last years bull FB and this would be a 40+ point win with a good called game. Richt needs to up his game, this is an easy one. So many reasons why this game shouldn't be close it isn't funny. I'll be betting Miami this week! Coaches, do your **** jobs and this is a runaway.

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

 

[The Franchise]

Toledo shouldn't be able to stop us. They're a horrible defensive team. They'll come out with a good plan on offense, and their QB is very accurate .

But if we don't overwhelm them with talent, power and speed like we did App State, then we're probably not very good. We should make a team like this with no real depth of talent completely wilt in the savage heat.

Teams like Toledo can have a handful of very talented players who can play anywhere. Teams like Miami have those types of guys all over the roster and also in the depth.

 

[mackjones]

Already down to -12.5 and F$U is down to -11.

In Vegas it's between 12.5 and 13.5. One major casino has it at 12.5 the rest 13-13.5. My take on this game. I think this is a **** line, should be higher, maybe 21. I guess the time off kept that line down. I watched the highlights of the Toledo/Tulsa game, there is a big difference between them and a legit top 20 team which I think Miami is. Miami is a match up nightmare for Toledo.

Speed all over the place for us, Toledo has a couple players with speed that I saw. Toledo's D is just horrible, looks like a div 2 team. So many reason this line should be higher. The last time I bet on Miami was like 4 years ago against pit. I bet to make money betting on your favorite team in most cases is stupid, heart over brain. I try to find bad lines, I think this is one of them.

We might come out a little rusty but that won't last. Is Toledo really going to stop our RB's? Say what you want about BC but they have speed, they match up better against Miami for that reason alone even with inferior athletes at some positions. Do you really think Tulsa has a better offense than us? I wish we had last years bull FB and this would be a 40+ point win with a good called game. Richt needs to up his game, this is an easy one. So many reasons why this game shouldn't be close it isn't funny. I'll be betting Miami this week! Coaches, do your **** jobs and this is a runaway.

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

 

[mackjones]

Being off for all this time, we may come out a little rusty. We win, but hard to predict final score. Just happy with a win and get on with the rest of our schedule.

Voila! Yes, it is ' hard ' to predicate the final score. All because Miami has been on turf sabbatical. hUh.

 

[scrantoncane]

Toledo shouldn't be able to stop us. They're a horrible defensive team. They'll come out with a good plan on offense, and their QB is very accurate .

But if we don't overwhelm them with talent, power and speed like we did App State, then we're probably not very good. We should make a team like this with no real depth of talent completely wilt in the savage heat.

Teams like Toledo can have a handful of very talented players who can play anywhere. Teams like Miami have those types of guys all over the roster and also in the depth.

Accurate post. They will have a few guys who play on Sundays, but 11-on-11 we should overwhelm them.

BC had a nice game plan to neutralize our DL, and Toledo has the QB and WRs to do the same, so adjustments better be made. But I don't see them stopping us - if you can't stop our run game without loading the box, it is over. When they are forced to give us single coverage outside, it'll be TDs in a hurry.

I can see Malik having one of those games with low attempts and huge numbers. Like a 14/18, 325, 3TDs type game.

 

[The Franchise]

Toledo shouldn't be able to stop us. They're a horrible defensive team. They'll come out with a good plan on offense, and their QB is very accurate .

But if we don't overwhelm them with talent, power and speed like we did App State, then we're probably not very good. We should make a team like this with no real depth of talent completely wilt in the savage heat.

Teams like Toledo can have a handful of very talented players who can play anywhere. Teams like Miami have those types of guys all over the roster and also in the depth.

Accurate post. They will have a few guys who play on Sundays, but 11-on-11 we should overwhelm them.

BC had a nice game plan to neutralize our DL, and Toledo has the QB and WRs to do the same, so adjustments better be made. But I don't see them stopping us - if you can't stop our run game without loading the box, it is over. When they are forced to give us single coverage outside, it'll be TDs in a hurry.

I can see Malik having one of those games with low attempts and huge numbers. Like a 14/18, 325, 3TDs type game.

If Diaz doesn't have an answer for that constant hot route ****, then he isn't who we think he is.

 

[DTP]

Diaz better stop leaving two linebackers on the field when facing 4 and 5 WR sets.

 

[mackjones]

Like I mentioned earlier. The Hurricane vs. Toledo line dropped a point. hUh

Tuesday afternoon: Miami - 12

And the OPENING point spread was... - 14 1/2. OUCH! And dig this Cane fan. Don't be surprised if the line drops another point by Saturday.

 

[CaniacMike21]

Like I mentioned earlier. The Hurricane vs. Toledo line dropped a point. hUh

Tuesday afternoon: Miami - 12

And the OPENING point spread was... - 14 1/2. OUCH! And dig this Cane fan. Don't be surprised if the line drops another point by Saturday.

Congrats on still being a double digit underdog to a displaced team that went two weeks without having been able to have a single practice.

You should be brimming with pride.

 

[CaneOil]

Already down to -12.5 and F$U is down to -11.

In Vegas it's between 12.5 and 13.5. One major casino has it at 12.5 the rest 13-13.5. My take on this game. I think this is a **** line, should be higher, maybe 21. I guess the time off kept that line down. I watched the highlights of the Toledo/Tulsa game, there is a big difference between them and a legit top 20 team which I think Miami is. Miami is a match up nightmare for Toledo.

Speed all over the place for us, Toledo has a couple players with speed that I saw. Toledo's D is just horrible, looks like a div 2 team. So many reason this line should be higher. The last time I bet on Miami was like 4 years ago against pit. I bet to make money betting on your favorite team in most cases is stupid, heart over brain. I try to find bad lines, I think this is one of them.

We might come out a little rusty but that won't last. Is Toledo really going to stop our RB's? Say what you want about BC but they have speed, they match up better against Miami for that reason alone even with inferior athletes at some positions. Do you really think Tulsa has a better offense than us? I wish we had last years bull FB and this would be a 40+ point win with a good called game. Richt needs to up his game, this is an easy one. So many reasons why this game shouldn't be close it isn't funny. I'll be betting Miami this week! Coaches, do your **** jobs and this is a runaway.

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

 

[MovingZen]

Like I mentioned earlier. The Hurricane vs. Toledo line dropped a point. hUh

Tuesday afternoon: Miami - 12

And the OPENING point spread was... - 14 1/2. OUCH! And dig this Cane fan. Don't be surprised if the line drops another point by Saturday.

I recognize your stupid *** writing style from the Herald articles. You've toned it down but you're still that same gaytor cukboy troll. gtfoh What's the over/under on how long it takes before you're banned?

 

[CaneOil]

Like I mentioned earlier. The Hurricane vs. Toledo line dropped a point. hUh

Tuesday afternoon: Miami - 12

And the OPENING point spread was... - 14 1/2. OUCH! And dig this Cane fan. Don't be surprised if the line drops another point by Saturday.

You are full of ****, no major casino in Vegas has it at 12, period. If you think it opened for more than 1 minute at one casino at 14.0 you are clueless. By the way the so called opening line was 14 in Vegas, not 14.5. In fact an hour ago, Westgate had it at 12.5 it's now 13.5. Every other major casino has it between 13 and 13.5. Mack you're a bozo. The biggest book has it at 13.5 right up the street from me. In My opinion it will not go to 11 like you are BSing. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes to 14. I follow lines but most of the time like in this case they don't mean ****.

 

[Classic]

In Vegas it's between 12.5 and 13.5. One major casino has it at 12.5 the rest 13-13.5. My take on this game. I think this is a **** line, should be higher, maybe 21. I guess the time off kept that line down. I watched the highlights of the Toledo/Tulsa game, there is a big difference between them and a legit top 20 team which I think Miami is. Miami is a match up nightmare for Toledo.

Speed all over the place for us, Toledo has a couple players with speed that I saw. Toledo's D is just horrible, looks like a div 2 team. So many reason this line should be higher. The last time I bet on Miami was like 4 years ago against pit. I bet to make money betting on your favorite team in most cases is stupid, heart over brain. I try to find bad lines, I think this is one of them.

We might come out a little rusty but that won't last. Is Toledo really going to stop our RB's? Say what you want about BC but they have speed, they match up better against Miami for that reason alone even with inferior athletes at some positions. Do you really think Tulsa has a better offense than us? I wish we had last years bull FB and this would be a 40+ point win with a good called game. Richt needs to up his game, this is an easy one. So many reasons why this game shouldn't be close it isn't funny. I'll be betting Miami this week! Coaches, do your **** jobs and this is a runaway.

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

 

[CaneOil]

Caneoil, do you mind posting your picks for this week?

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

I'm still looking, I really haven't studied much in 2 years, hard getting back into it. Just asking, what makes you like Maryland and TAM? I'm not trying to talk you out of anything, just asking. I did spend a few minutes on the UCF side, their QB was a FR last year and was pretty bad with 6 fumbles and lost the game for them at the end. Lost 3 of those for fumbles and one pick. If the kid has heart he probably won't play that way again. MA won last years game in double over time. MA looks like it's starting a good running QB and sitting their senior. That's all I know about it so far. I don't know who is gone from last years teams.

 

[Novacane32000]

I will, later on in the week, usually don't pick a lot of games in one week, sometimes I have none. I try to bet the same amount on every game and hit 60 -65% or so, I win money every single year. I use to hit at a higher percentage when I studied. I don't waste money on sucker bets like parleys and teasers. When I use to study many years ago in South Florida, I had books shut me off, it was a hoot. I only had one game last week, I liked a few but just took my best one.

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

I'm still looking, I really haven't studied much in 2 years, hard getting back into it. Just asking, what makes you like Maryland and TAM? I'm not trying to talk you out of anything, just asking. I did spend a few minutes on the UCF side, their QB was a FR last year and was pretty bad with 6 fumbles and lost the game for them at the end. Lost 3 of those for fumbles and one pick. If the kid has heart he probably won't play that way again. MA won last years game in double over time. MA looks like it's starting a good running QB and sitting their senior. That's all I know about it so far. I don't know who is gone from last years teams.

Here are some stats I look at for about the first 3-4 games of the year. They work best the first 2 weeks.

Returning Starters-no edge except Ark and UCF return their QB
ark-13
Mary-14
TXAM-12
UCF-13

OL Starts returning--Decent edge to UCF
ark-70
Mary-46
TXAM-48
UCF-101

% of tackles returning--edge to Mary
ark-60%
Mary-75%
TXAM-57%
UCF- 41%

Sr and Jr starting-slight edge Mary.
ark-14
Mary-19
TXAM-14
UCF-15

I also glance at the last 3 yrs of recruiting minus last years class but attrition makes this a very inaccurate gauge of current talent. TXAM has a nice advantage here
ark- 14 (4 star and 5 star players) 47 (3 star)
Mary 11 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)
TXAM 35 (4 star and 5 star players) 28 (3 star)
UCF- 4 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)

I have this all laid out on an excel sheet and it actually took me 10x longer to write this than to look it all up.

I am all ears to any other stats that should be looked at.

 

[Classic]

For a good ol' boy that wins on a consistent basis, you come off as a ' dilettante. ' Because Vegas absolutely DOESN'T play around with the opening point spreads on either major college football or the NFL! dUh. In other words, all those 21st Century edifices in Vegas weren't built on Joe Blow flying away from Sin City as a winner.

Oh, and one more thing. It was the ' Wise Guy ' SMART MONEY which brought that Miami vs. Toledo opening line down by a point and one-half. And personally, I expect the line to drop another point by Saturday. But then again, I could be wrong.

Again, Miami has been away from football for THREE WEEKS. So nobody knows what to expect from Miami this Saturday. In other words, Miami could EASILY cover the point spread, or the game could be relatively close. Albeit with Miami still winning the game.

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

I'm still looking, I really haven't studied much in 2 years, hard getting back into it. Just asking, what makes you like Maryland and TAM? I'm not trying to talk you out of anything, just asking. I did spend a few minutes on the UCF side, their QB was a FR last year and was pretty bad with 6 fumbles and lost the game for them at the end. Lost 3 of those for fumbles and one pick. If the kid has heart he probably won't play that way again. MA won last years game in double over time. MA looks like it's starting a good running QB and sitting their senior. That's all I know about it so far. I don't know who is gone from last years teams.

Here are some stats I look at for about the first 3-4 games of the year. They work best the first 2 weeks.

Returning Starters-no edge except Ark and UCF return their QB
ark-13
Mary-14
TXAM-12
UCF-13

OL Starts returning--Decent edge to UCF
ark-70
Mary-46
TXAM-48
UCF-101

% of tackles returning--edge to Mary
ark-60%
Mary-75%
TXAM-57%
UCF- 41%

Sr and Jr starting-slight edge Mary.
ark-14
Mary-19
TXAM-14
UCF-15

I also glance at the last 3 yrs of recruiting minus last years class but attrition makes this a very inaccurate gauge of current talent. TXAM has a nice advantage here
ark- 14 (4 star and 5 star players) 47 (3 star)
Mary 11 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)
TXAM 35 (4 star and 5 star players) 28 (3 star)
UCF- 4 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)

I have this all laid out on an excel sheet and it actually took me 10x longer to write this than to look it all up.

I am all ears to any other stats that should be looked at.

Thanks for that breakdown, Novacane. That's good stuff, I think good metrics to parse when looking for an attractive bet.

I've gotten into the habit of throwing a few hundred bucks at week 1 and then seeing what I can turn it into. I've done all right the last couple of seasons, am 7-4 this season, but I'm not very scientific in my approach. Just a guy who watches a lot of football and likes to think he can spot an attractive line and is quick to ride a hunch.

I like Texas A&M at least in part because I think Arkansas is so bad. I think A&M has a more talented team (didn't realize the recruiting disparity was that significant, thanks Nova), which I think is even more important when your coach sucks, and I suspect that both Sumlin and Bielema might. Arkansas's offense was pure trash against TCU, both the pass and run were horrid, and A&M's defense is quietly pretty good (strong DL, 1st in TO margin). A&M's offense is sketchy with a ****** freshman QB, but he's settling in, only going to get better. And they get back their 1,000-yard stud running back who got injured in week 2. Should be enough to put points on the board, and I've got no faith in Arkansas or Bielema, especially when playing from behind.

My Maryland pick is less well reasoned. Maryland has surprised this year with its win over a Texas team that took USC into OT. Transitive property ain't **** here, but I think that Maryland team is better than advertised. They've got a very balanced offense, an efficient QB. UCF is a bit of an unknown as they haven't played in three weeks because of the hurricanes. I think by the time they shake off the rust, a confident Maryland team will already be on the roll. And all things being equal, I like a deeper, more talented team at home.

 

[Novacane32000]

Always a few out there that think they know better. Been betting for 30 years, been here in Vegas for 8 for football seasons. But you can tell me why lines move all day long. How many times have you been at the window or on your phone exactly when those lines come out? I recon none. You better be at the right casino because they open up with early lines, the others wait and follow. You will never get those early lines in the other casinos they don't exist most of the time. lol. I could sit here and school you but why bother. When I was younger I would study 15 hours a day, I've forgotten more than you know. I just don't care enough to do that now.

Just a point I'll make on your smart money BS. There are gamblers who bet only dogs with over 10 point lines or so. Wise guys LMAO Do you know why they bet that way? No, I'm sure you don't. I've sat in the rooms where you can't. The top sports bettors don't sit with the public. They have Notebooks as big as dictionaries full of stats. Many times the smart money doesn't get bet till a few minutes before game time.

Now could Miami come out flat and play like crap and lose? You bet! But I could give you plenty of reasons why they won't. Not much studying for this game but they should roll. I just spent 45 minutes on the Georgia state game and nothing came out of it. My problem now is, I'm older, I don't have to win anymore and I hate studying.

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

I'm still looking, I really haven't studied much in 2 years, hard getting back into it. Just asking, what makes you like Maryland and TAM? I'm not trying to talk you out of anything, just asking. I did spend a few minutes on the UCF side, their QB was a FR last year and was pretty bad with 6 fumbles and lost the game for them at the end. Lost 3 of those for fumbles and one pick. If the kid has heart he probably won't play that way again. MA won last years game in double over time. MA looks like it's starting a good running QB and sitting their senior. That's all I know about it so far. I don't know who is gone from last years teams.

Here are some stats I look at for about the first 3-4 games of the year. They work best the first 2 weeks.

Returning Starters-no edge except Ark and UCF return their QB
ark-13
Mary-14
TXAM-12
UCF-13

OL Starts returning--Decent edge to UCF
ark-70
Mary-46
TXAM-48
UCF-101

% of tackles returning--edge to Mary
ark-60%
Mary-75%
TXAM-57%
UCF- 41%

Sr and Jr starting-slight edge Mary.
ark-14
Mary-19
TXAM-14
UCF-15

I also glance at the last 3 yrs of recruiting minus last years class but attrition makes this a very inaccurate gauge of current talent. TXAM has a nice advantage here
ark- 14 (4 star and 5 star players) 47 (3 star)
Mary 11 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)
TXAM 35 (4 star and 5 star players) 28 (3 star)
UCF- 4 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)

I have this all laid out on an excel sheet and it actually took me 10x longer to write this than to look it all up.

I am all ears to any other stats that should be looked at.

Thanks for that breakdown, Novacane. That's good stuff, I think good metrics to parse when looking for an attractive bet.

I've gotten into the habit of throwing a few hundred bucks at week 1 and then seeing what I can turn it into. I've done all right the last couple of seasons, am 7-4 this season, but I'm not very scientific in my approach. Just a guy who watches a lot of football and likes to think he can spot an attractive line and is quick to ride a hunch.

I like Texas A&M at least in part because I think Arkansas is so bad. I think A&M has a more talented team (didn't realize the recruiting disparity was that significant, thanks Nova), which I think is even more important when your coach sucks, and I suspect that both Sumlin and Bielema might. Arkansas's offense was pure trash against TCU, both the pass and run were horrid, and A&M's defense is quietly pretty good (strong DL, 1st in TO margin). A&M's offense is sketchy with a ****ty freshman QB, but he's settling in, only going to get better. And they get back their 1,000-yard stud running back who got injured in week 2. Should be enough to put points on the board, and I've got no faith in Arkansas or Bielema, especially when playing from behind.

My Maryland pick is less well reasoned. Maryland has surprised this year with its win over a Texas team that took USC into OT. Transitive property ain't **** here, but I think that Maryland team is better than advertised. They've got a very balanced offense, an efficient QB. UCF is a bit of an unknown as they haven't played in three weeks because of the hurricanes. I think by the time they shake off the rust, a confident Maryland team will already be on the roll. And all things being equal, I like a deeper, more talented team at home.

Stats are great but nothing beats watching the actual game which you have done.
Sounds like you've done your homework on these games to the point I'm willing to take your 2 picks.

One thing I learned this year, and I think Caneoil mentioned it, is to bet the same amount on every game. If you do that, you only need win 53% of your picks to break even and anything above that is money in your pocket. Also, only bet 1% to 2% of your account on any one game. So if you have a $1000 account your bets would be from $10 to no more than $20. If your bets are much larger ,when you run into that inevitable losing streak ,you are more likely to get wiped out.