Toledo cannot stop the run at all. We run on them all day and score on nearly every possession. I was initially worried about this game but looking at the stats from previous Toledo games they have no answer to the running game. We roll !
They gave up 129, 109 & 423 in 3 games this season. Tulsa, who ran for 423 on them last weekend, has ran for 244, 424, 423 in its 3 games. So not sure if Toldeo can't stop the run, or Tulsa has a solid rush offense.
Toldeo looks like they have a balanced and potent offensive attack. Last weekend, they committed 15 penalties, lost the turnover battle and lost the TOP battle by more than 10 minutes, but still came out with a W because Tulsa couldn't slow them down.
From what I read, they are multi-dmiensional - they don't run to open the pass, they just take what you give them. Most of their scoring drives this season have been long, sustained drives (as opposed to long TDs), so they may very well turn to the quick pass, dink-and-dunk offense that we saw BC have success with.
Last season, their QB threw for 4100+ yards on 69% completion percentage with a 45/9 TD/Int ratio. That is no joke. He already has thrown for 1000+ yards this year, with an 8/1 ratio. They also have a 1st team all-MAC WR (Cody Thompson), who went for 64/1,300/11 TDs in 2016 and already has 22/391/4 TDs this year. They did, however, lose their LT and both starting guards from last year's squad.
The obvious differentiating factor is the quality of opponent. Toledo plays no one. Their only decent matchup in the past 2 seasons was a 55-53 loss at BYU (a game Toledo had won until a facemask penalty bailed BYU out on their last drive). Other than BYU, there is only G5 teams.
This is the type of game where, IMO, we should dictate the tempo and let our superior athletes smash them in the mouth. I would expect Walton and Homer to both go for 100+ again, and for us to win TOP by a similar margin as Tulsa did. BYU and Tulsa both busted a few long TD runs. Our OL should give them fits.
Hopefully we will see a lot more dime coverage and 4-man rushes than we did against BC. We will see this weekend whether BC was a scheme issue, or if it was just a scrimmage where Manny was ******** around in base, seeing who showed up when the lights came on. I suspect it was the latter.
Although we have been known to play down to the opponent, Toledo simply doesn't have or play against the quality of player that we have. I like us to win and cover, although not enough to bet it. Something right around the number, like 35-21.
