Canes open -14.5 over the Rockets

[Classic]

I'm with CaneOil here.

We are a matchup nightmare for Toledo. Toledo's D is terrible, especially against the run, and we've got the best back in the ACC with Homer threatening to prove his worth. We could come out rusty, totally possible. But I think we come back rejuvenated and fired up. And we've been in a training camp atmosphere in Orlando. Once the line dropped below -14, I jumped hard (-13.5).

Who else you like this week, Oil man?

I like Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas.
And Maryland (-3.5) at home against UCF.

I'm still looking, I really haven't studied much in 2 years, hard getting back into it. Just asking, what makes you like Maryland and TAM? I'm not trying to talk you out of anything, just asking. I did spend a few minutes on the UCF side, their QB was a FR last year and was pretty bad with 6 fumbles and lost the game for them at the end. Lost 3 of those for fumbles and one pick. If the kid has heart he probably won't play that way again. MA won last years game in double over time. MA looks like it's starting a good running QB and sitting their senior. That's all I know about it so far. I don't know who is gone from last years teams.

Here are some stats I look at for about the first 3-4 games of the year. They work best the first 2 weeks.

Returning Starters-no edge except Ark and UCF return their QB
ark-13
Mary-14
TXAM-12
UCF-13

OL Starts returning--Decent edge to UCF
ark-70
Mary-46
TXAM-48
UCF-101

% of tackles returning--edge to Mary
ark-60%
Mary-75%
TXAM-57%
UCF- 41%

Sr and Jr starting-slight edge Mary.
ark-14
Mary-19
TXAM-14
UCF-15

I also glance at the last 3 yrs of recruiting minus last years class but attrition makes this a very inaccurate gauge of current talent. TXAM has a nice advantage here
ark- 14 (4 star and 5 star players) 47 (3 star)
Mary 11 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)
TXAM 35 (4 star and 5 star players) 28 (3 star)
UCF- 4 (4 star and 5 star players) 29 (3 star)

I have this all laid out on an excel sheet and it actually took me 10x longer to write this than to look it all up.

I am all ears to any other stats that should be looked at.

Thanks for that breakdown, Novacane. That's good stuff, I think good metrics to parse when looking for an attractive bet.

I've gotten into the habit of throwing a few hundred bucks at week 1 and then seeing what I can turn it into. I've done all right the last couple of seasons, am 7-4 this season, but I'm not very scientific in my approach. Just a guy who watches a lot of football and likes to think he can spot an attractive line and is quick to ride a hunch.

I like Texas A&M at least in part because I think Arkansas is so bad. I think A&M has a more talented team (didn't realize the recruiting disparity was that significant, thanks Nova), which I think is even more important when your coach sucks, and I suspect that both Sumlin and Bielema might. Arkansas's offense was pure trash against TCU, both the pass and run were horrid, and A&M's defense is quietly pretty good (strong DL, 1st in TO margin). A&M's offense is sketchy with a ****ty freshman QB, but he's settling in, only going to get better. And they get back their 1,000-yard stud running back who got injured in week 2. Should be enough to put points on the board, and I've got no faith in Arkansas or Bielema, especially when playing from behind.

My Maryland pick is less well reasoned. Maryland has surprised this year with its win over a Texas team that took USC into OT. Transitive property ain't **** here, but I think that Maryland team is better than advertised. They've got a very balanced offense, an efficient QB. UCF is a bit of an unknown as they haven't played in three weeks because of the hurricanes. I think by the time they shake off the rust, a confident Maryland team will already be on the roll. And all things being equal, I like a deeper, more talented team at home.

Stats are great but nothing beats watching the actual game which you have done.
Sounds like you've done your homework on these games to the point I'm willing to take your 2 picks.

One thing I learned this year, and I think Caneoil mentioned it, is to bet the same amount on every game. If you do that, you only need win 53% of your picks to break even and anything above that is money in your pocket. Also, only bet 1% to 2% of your account on any one game. So if you have a $1000 account your bets would be from $10 to no more than $20. If your bets are much larger ,when you run into that inevitable losing streak ,you are more likely to get wiped out.

Happy to have you in on the action, just don't blame me if things go south.

I forgot to mention that while Arkansas is the "home" team at a "neutral site," they're playing in Arlington, TX...might as well be an A&M home game.

I like that strategy, big fan of betting systems. I typically choose three to five games a week and lay heavy on my one or two favorites. For the remaining two to three games, I bet half of my big bet per game. And then I bet half of my small bet on one to three parlays. The idea being that my big bet game covers most if not all of my other action. If I win, I win big. Of course if I lose my big bet and go 2-2 or 1-3 on the rest, I lose kinda big, too.

 

[CaneOil]

I'll give up a few things I look for. One, dogs cover about 53% of the time, I try to pick from that side if I can. Most people like betting favorites, (me included) one way Vegas puts the odds in their favor. Home dogs cover at an even higher rate. Now you still have to pick those dogs but I'd rather pic from a 53% pool than a 47% pool.

I look for Freshman QB's on the road in big games, specially their first game.

All the stats you posted I look at.

Over the years I have stayed away from betting against the average Florida teams like Central Florida, many of those average kids from Dade and other counties go to these schools and turn out to be very good players. Been burned early on, so many games to pick, I just bypassed these teams most of the time. On paper that Maryland game looks alright specially with that big layoff. Me personally, years ago I would skip it. What I don't like is the Florida teams freshman qb had 4 turnovers and that game was still close.

I look for mismatches, I would bet games that are not going to get a lot of money bet on them, the lines many times are not as sharp as the big games.

When I was really into it, I use to make a line for every game on Sunday night to compare to the lines that came out on Monday. Most of the time I could get very close, the games that I didn't would be the first ones I did my studying on. I can't do that now because I just don't know the teams like I use too. That's where I found some off lines. I only bet 3 times last year so I don't have a clue to what's going on with them. I use to watch football starting at 11am out here until the last game stopped, actually watched the same in SF. I only bet 3 times last year, wasn't into it. My first was a 100 dollar bet I lost, second 200 dollar bet I won. Third a 2k bet on Miami winning 6.5 games or more. That's not the way I bet when I'm serious. To really know teams you have to watch a **** of a lot of games and keep notes. Some teams just don't match up well with others, the good betters can see that. I never bet on pro games, those lines are so sharp you will have a hard time making money. Waste of time and energy. I did bet college Basketball all the time too.

About half way through the year you can start seeing how teams did against the same teams you have played. Every little bit of info you have can aid you.

How QB's play on the road and at home. Some just suck on the road, I looked at every possible stat I could and then I went over them again. I just don't have that fire anymore to dig like that.

 

[CaneOil]

Just found this, shows the dogs covering at close to 53%. It's been real close to this since I started betting. In the late 80's there was a great little book store in F Laud right across the street from the main library downtown that had lot's of magazines on sports betting with all the stats, I bought every one I could find. https://fansided.com/2017/09/04/dog-day-saturday-recap-terps-win-week-2-pick/

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Just found this, shows the dogs covering at close to 53%. It's been real close to this since I started betting. In the late 80's there was a great little book store in F Laud right across the street from the main library downtown that had lot's of magazines on sports betting with all the stats, I bought every one I could find. https://fansided.com/2017/09/04/dog-day-saturday-recap-terps-win-week-2-pick/

Great stuff in this tread from everyone. Really like your stuff though. Some things I'd never considered.

 

[Novacane32000]

Anyway you look at it, just like most everything else in life ,if u want to be good at this ,it takes plenty of work.

 

[RHCanes]

Let's just stop this nonsense about Toledo and their QB-WRs mess! Toledo players are not at the level of the CANES period. This game will not be close, and the defense will create about 4-5 turnovers. Canes DBs face speed and size every day, and Toledo has not gone against the size and power of our DL and OL. My only issue is: CMR opening up the offensive play calling, and spread Toledo out to match our talent. I would come out and spread Toledo out initially...then come with the power game in the second half. By going 4 wide: Herdon, Richards, Thomas, and Cager...with RB and mobile QB...Toledo will be on their heels. Canes 55-9!