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Can we get real analysis on here?

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I have 1 question where have the turnovers on Defense went ? Barely 1 a game now
 
zanecane said:
Go listen to the coaches interviews if you want fairy dust shoved up your ***.

If you want to be honest with where we are as a team stay and join the CIS discussions.
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What do you expect the coaches to say? We suck, we've spoiled the program, no one is going to want to come here? GIMME a break, if the coaches reacted like this board we'd be in deeper dodo. I do want more fire from Diaz, these kids need to be put in their place and quit accepting failure. Dancing on the side line as if they are winning is a disgrace and not getting on the kickers that miss easy FG's or McIvey when he blows a special teams coverage after Bolden signaled it was a fake. I want some anger from the top guy, constructive but letting them know failure is not an option if you are going to get playing time.
 
canes732 said:
I have 1 question where have the turnovers on Defense went ? Barely 1 a game now
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Turnovers are one of the most volatile statistics in football. You can put yourself in circumstances that increase the probability of turnovers - mainly, good down-and-distances and applying pressure - but getting turnovers is mostly luck.

Usually you see teams that are among the leaders in turnovers one year fall back to the middle of the pack the next year. That's what's happened to us, I believe.

Our havoc rate is a bit down so that might have something to do with it, but it's still quite good from what I've read.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Correct, and that would be insanely bad luck. You can't assume that a team will win or lose ALL of its close games. But you CAN assume they will split them.

So far we have had 5 games where the win probability hovered around 50% for long stretches of the game, including late in the game. (CMU was always comfortable - i.e. >90% win prob - since they never had the ball and a chance to tie/win.) We are 1-4 in those games. It's reasonable to assume that we should have 1 or 2 more wins.

7-0 is not realistic given the way we have played, but we have played well enough to be 5-2 vs. our schedule. That doesn't mean we're a great team, but it certainly doesn't mean we're a dumpster fire.

My concern is that the losses and the negativity start to weigh on the team, and the wheels come off.
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Got news for you! Wheels are already off. Did you not see the game last week? We just lost to a HORRIBLE 1-5 GT team that probably won’t have another win this year. We are in all likelihood not going to make a bowl. How much worse does it have to get before you call this team/season a dumpster fire?
 
fraggle said:
What do you expect the coaches to say? We suck, we've spoiled the program, no one is going to want to come here? GIMME a break, if the coaches reacted like this board we'd be in deeper dodo. I do want more fire from Diaz, these kids need to be put in their place and quit accepting failure. Dancing on the side line as if they are winning is a disgrace and not getting on the kickers that miss easy FG's or McIvey when he blows a special teams coverage after Bolden signaled it was a fake. I want some anger from the top guy, constructive but letting them know failure is not an option if you are going to get playing time.
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Well that’s not going to happen. Manny trots the same players week after week even when they are not getting it done. Took him 1/2 the season to start Rousseau, still plays Ivey, players a walk-on in place of Pink, list goes on and on. He’s a terrible coach that is slow to adapt and adjust.
 
SSCane said:
Got news for you! Wheels are already off. Did you not see the game last week? We just lost to a HORRIBLE 1-5 GT team that probably won’t have another win this year. We are in all likelihood not going to make a bowl. How much worse does it have to get before you call this team/season a dumpster fire?
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I'd say we enter dumpster fire territory if 2 of the below happen:
-Lose a blowout to a mediocre team
-Lose to FIU
-Not make a bowl game
-Drop out of the top 25 recruiting rankings
-Finish with a losing record

Let's apply the "Tennessee Test" to determine whether that is reasonable criteria:
-2019: blown out multiple times but all to good teams, lost to Georgia St (FIU equivalent), need to win 4/5 to make bowl and 5/6 for winning records -> trending towards dumpster fire but not quite there yet
-2018: blown out by Vandy, no bowl game, losing record -> dumpster fire
-2017: blown out by Vandy, no bowl game, losing record -> dumpster fire
-2016: blown out by Vandy (holy crap Vandy is dominating this series), met no other criteria -> not a dumpster fire
-2015: met no criteria -> not a dumpster fire

The Tennessee Test confirms that my system works. Tennessee has been a dumpster fire for a couple of years now. There's still a lot of football left, but they're on track to be a dumpster fire again. But in the middle part of this decade, they were pretty solid, if a bit underwhelming given expectations. That narrative seems to align pretty well with reality.

So by this system, if we finish 7-6, make a bowl game, beat FIU, and either (1) stay in the top 25 recruiting rankings or (2) not get blown out all season, we would stay just above the cut off for dumpster fire, although that would be cutting it close. If none of those things happen, I think we would have had a disappointing season but not be a dumpster fire.

I think this set of criteria works pretty well actually.
 
Mark Pope only dropped one pass this week, and we only lost 1 player to the portal this week...that's positive, no?
 
ALLoverCANE said:
I'd say we enter dumpster fire territory if 2 of the below happen:
-Lose a blowout to a mediocre team
-Lose to FIU
-Not make a bowl game
-Drop out of the top 25 recruiting rankings
-Finish with a losing record

Let's apply the "Tennessee Test" to determine whether that is reasonable criteria:
-2019: blown out multiple times but all to good teams, lost to Georgia St (FIU equivalent), need to win 4/5 to make bowl and 5/6 for winning records -> trending towards dumpster fire but not quite there yet
-2018: blown out by Vandy, no bowl game, losing record -> dumpster fire
-2017: blown out by Vandy, no bowl game, losing record -> dumpster fire
-2016: blown out by Vandy (holy crap Vandy is dominating this series), met no other criteria -> not a dumpster fire
-2015: met no criteria -> not a dumpster fire

The Tennessee Test confirms that my system works. Tennessee has been a dumpster fire for a couple of years now. There's still a lot of football left, but they're on track to be a dumpster fire again. But in the middle part of this decade, they were pretty solid, if a bit underwhelming given expectations. That narrative seems to align pretty well with reality.

So by this system, if we finish 7-6, make a bowl game, beat FIU, and either (1) stay in the top 25 recruiting rankings or (2) not get blown out all season, we would stay just above the cut off for dumpster fire, although that would be cutting it close. If none of those things happen, I think we would have had a disappointing season but not be a dumpster fire.

I think this set of criteria works pretty well actually.
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919cane said:
You really want more nuanced analysis of a home loss to a 1-5 Ga Tech team that lost to The Citadel?
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Yeah, I'd rather complain incessantly about one player who f'd up so bad he should either get drug tested for standing around looking stoned while his assignment ran down the sideline to catch a TD pass unchallenged or just shown the link to the portal application.

And haven't even gotten started yet on a kicker who is so mentally traumatized he needs to start some kind of drug--prescribed by a professional.

I don't get the mentality of millennials.
 
MotoSniper said:
Mark Pope only dropped one pass this week, and we only lost 1 player to the portal this week...that's positive, no?
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Well, if their's a consolation, the loss of one player to the portal, might mean more playing time for Pope. Net result: more opportunities for drops.

We can get that number up.
 
MizCane said:
Bad luck is JT4 muffing a punt against UF. Hes a vet on a huge stage. That should not happen. Coached cant prevent that blunder but they can prevent this:

Bad coaching is awful tackling, racking up penalties, missing FG's, Ivey holding his **** in his hand on a fake punt, reverse in OT down 7, red zone failures on O&D.
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And fades to mini-me WRs over and over. Maybe that play is made-to-order for Hightower. Why he's not brought in for that play, only the coaches know for sure.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Or do you guys only follow this team to celebrate when we win, and whine and moan when we lose? Do any of you actually like football?

An example of real analysis: Roman Marciante's article yesterday (https://www.canesinsight.com/news/.6643/). Even-handed. Highlighted both the good and the bad.

The team is a handful of plays away from being 7-0. They would be a fraud 7-0 team, but when you're that close to being undefeated, you're not a dumpster fire, either. Good things are happening, just not enough of them to overcome the bad things plus the bad luck. Why don't we talk about the good things in a level-headed way, and talk about the bad things in a level-headed way, and talk about the bad luck in a level-headed way?

All of this complaining about the coaches, the AD, the BOT, etc...it's just freaking boring. We get it. Your team lost and you are sad.

But for those of us who actually like football, who like to follow the story line of a season, the story line of multiple seasons, the career arcs of players, etc., this mindless, nuance-less negativity is just so...****...boring.
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great analysis!!!
 
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