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Can this offense be as good as ‘24?

NCCanefan said:
Actually it seems the awful 2024 defense created lots of opportunities for the offense because the other teams scored so quickly.
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On the other hand, our O in ‘24 was rarely given a short field.
It seemed every one of our drives started on the opposing 20 or 30…or worse after the obligatory holding penalty on the return.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I would argue the 3 biggest metrics for measuring offensive efficiency are:

Yards per play
Adjusted EPA/play
Success Rate

Here is where Miami ranked in all 3 categories in 2025. Now, one reminder, we played 16 games, the last 4 against very good teams. So this isn't totally perfect, but adjusted EPA does take defenses faced into account:

YPP - 34th
Adjusted EPA/Play - T37th
Success Rate - 37th

So, no. No metrics had our offense being efficient. Certainly not as efficient as what we can and should be in 2026. It was an above-average offense. I do agree that explosive plays have a lot to do with this. But of course they do. When you have an explosive, your YPP goes up, your EPA goes up, and it's a successful play. So it all goes into this. We had FAR more explosives in 2025 than we did in 2024. We were #1 in the country BY A MILE in EPA/play and success rate in 2024.

So yes, we need to be much more efficient this year. You can do that by creating more explosives, which I think we will.
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I agree with everything you mentioned, i think if we produced more explosives those numbers would have taken a leap up.
 
We'll perform closer to the 2024 offense, but not as good numbers-wise. Which is good in a way. But we are, IMO, more talented and more able vs the 2024 team.

Mensah is a different QB than Beck, I think there's been enough posts demonstrating that in various levels of detail. Compared to Ward, Mensah is less arm-talented, but also far less boneheaded with the ball. What helps us is the fact that we probably have the most talented WR room this university has seen in two decades and defenses will have to adjust to that accordingly. Outside of a TE that can make some plays from short passes, we have everything you could possibly want in this passing game - and even then, we've seen what Lofton can do, he just hasn't been able to do it consistently because of injuries. But the MOF is dominated by Toney and Barkate, two route technicians that understand football.

My only question is, how quickly can we get the running game going? It'll take time for it to gel and for the physical attributes to shine through. And it's a baseline play that you love to have when the pass game is sputtering. That'll come down to S&C, but based on last years work, I wouldn't be surprised to see us being physically dominant from the start.

All in all, this offense has the potential to do absolutely everything on the field. We can run the ball 60 times and win convincingly and we can throw the ball 50 times and do the same. There's a mixture of scheme, athleticism and pure football ability that no one else has.
 
NJshoreCane said:
Forget my last post.
@Trafficante just posted stat comps where our starting field position was a half yard better in ‘25 than ‘24.
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This is a good one, too.

Drive success. A successful drive is one that ends in a touchdown, or a field goal attempt.

In 2024, Miami was #1 in the country in offensive drive success. 63% of our drives ended in a TD or FG attempt.

In 2025, we sunk to #30. Only 49.3% of drives ended in a TD or FG attempt.

What's interesting, though, with football being such a team game, if you look at our net successful drive percentage, it was almost the same.

In 2024, with the #1 offensive drive success rating, and #56 defensive drive success rating, the offense was so off the charts, the team finished #7.
In 2025, with the #30 offensive drive success rating, the defense jumped up to #8 in defensive drive success rating. So the team finished #9.

Just yet again shows you how well rounded you need to be and how insane the 2024 offense was.

I expect to be in the Top 5 of this metric this year. This is VERY indicative of team success, obviously.

2024, the two teams who played for the Natty finished 1st and 3rd in this metric.
2025, Indiana finished #3.

Score or attempt a FG on offense, force punts or turnovers on defense, you're gonna be pretty tough to beat.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yards per game is a ****** metric. Obviously being sky high in it means you have a great offense, but pace dictates so much of that. Yards per play is a much better indicator of true efficiency.

In 2024, we averaged 7.56 yards per play. Here's the ranks the last 5 years:

2021 - #2 (Ohio State averaged 7.96 YPP)
2022 - #1
2023 - #3 (LSU averaged 8.49 YPP, Oregon averaged 7.63 YPP)
2024 - #1
2025 - #1

So, that 2024 offense was the 4th best offense of the last 5 years on a per play basis. Absolutely insane. If we land directly in the middle of 2024 and 2025, here's where we'd be:

2024 YPP - 7.56
2025 YPP - 5.96

Dead middle is 6.76 YPP. Here's where 6.76 YPP ranks you the last 5 years:

2025 - 8th
2024 - 4th
2023 - 11th
2022 - 11th
2021 - 6th

I'm with you, I think this offense can and should finish right around here. Roughly 10th in yards per play and scoring offense is a reasonable expectation. I do not expect 2024 levels with the defense being what it is. Just look at the defenses of the teams who had better offenses than our 2024 version:

2021 Ohio State -- 40th in YPP allowed
2023 LSU -- 103rd in YPP allowed
2023 Oregon - 22nd in YPP allowed
2024 Miami was 48th in YPP allowed

Usually, teams who have the #1 offense in the country do so out of necessity. Their defense isn't very good. I talked about this in my post yesterday ITT. I don't think Miami will have the 40th, or 103rd, etc ranked defense this year. So we won't need the #1 offense.

Top 10 on both sides of the ball pretty much has you as the best team in the country. I'm shooting for 6.5+ YPP on offense and 4.75 YPP allowed on defense. If we do that, we're playing for a natty again.
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Doesn't Santo Mario's reliance on TUFF N FYZICAL skew Miami's YPP downward vs pass happy teams (e.g. Lane Kiffin, etc...)?

Not necessarily a bad thing because of clock control, but a reality of the metric.
 
KingB02 said:
Who was a proven guy that we had coming in?
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The secondary was unquestionably the biggest story. Arroyo had shown glimpses and we knew he was the guy if healthy. We have no clue what Lofton can actually do or if anyone behind him can play. He isn't an inline TE so who is the actual starter?
 
cway313 said:
The secondary was unquestionably the biggest story. Arroyo had shown glimpses and we knew he was the guy if healthy. We have no clue what Lofton can actually do or if anyone behind him can play. He isn't an inline TE so who is the actual starter?
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Orroyo hadn’t played much at all. If you look at stats coming into the year Lofton is way farther ahead. He played through injuries all last year too. Im not saying that Lofton is better or even close, im just saying that we didn’t know if Orroyo would even make it through a full season let alone be as good as he was. Lofton had actual game footage of him playing, blocking for two years. To say he can’t take the next step with a weight loss and a healthy body/mind is WILD!
 
KingB02 said:
Orroyo hadn’t played much at all. If you look at stats coming into the year Lofton is way farther ahead. He played through injuries all last year too. Im not saying that Lofton is better or even close, im just saying that we didn’t know if Orroyo would even make it through a full season let alone be as good as he was. Lofton had actual game footage of him playing, blocking for two years. To say he can’t take the next step with a weight loss and a healthy body/mind is WILD!
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I'm OK with a disagreement. You obviously have Lofton on the D$ pantheon. I hope he balls out this year.
 
Skill positions are much better now. Line probably isn’t as good. The difference is, we’re not going to be in shootouts every week with a defense that can actually get stops. We won’t need to score 40+ to win every week.
 
DMoney said:
Ahmmon and I go through some numbers:

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Concerned about the OL. I need to see it first.

Freshman LT, new center who has hardly played, new RG or RT depending on where they put Samson. Who are the backups? Lot of question marks in my opinion there. Good thing is Mensah can move around better than Beck.
 
pick one offense to win the game on the final drive against Indiana

You picking Cam and 2024 or Mensah and co. this year?
 
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