Can this offense be as good as ‘24?

[simplycanes]

I don't think you can replicate Cam's ability to play off schedule which was a huge factor in 2024. We can be top 10 very easily if we focus on the tools we have and be less worried about the philosophy we adhere to.

We don't have the OL to condense and maul our way thru stacked boxes anymore. We also didn't have a lot of success motioning in defenders. Beck struggled with that at times (Louisville) and Mensah will, too, because again, those guys aren't Ward.

What we do have is 4 RB who can start most places and 6 WR we can rotate, so drop the TE more often and spread teams out, away from the box and then run your Duo and RPO. Do that and we're top 5 to 10 offense.

 

[NicKane]

2026 WR group is way more talented, but not sure on the RBs. 2026 probably deeper at RB, but I don't think any are as good as Martinez. That guy was a beast.

Fletcher is just as good, if not better. Fletcher will be playing in the NFL.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

Depends on:

1. Dawson via Mario in terms of disposition
2. RT
3. Center, especially health
4. LT
5. Willingness to maximize receivers on the field

Health is always a concern, but that's obviously uncontrollable.

I'm also very curious to see how they integrate the ground game into this year's offense. It will also be very interesting to see how they go about utilizing the enormous amount of depth at RB.

 

[E1k]

Yards per game is a ****** metric. Obviously being sky high in it means you have a great offense, but pace dictates so much of that. Yards per play is a much better indicator of true efficiency.

In 2024, we averaged 7.56 yards per play. Here's the ranks the last 5 years:

2021 - #2 (Ohio State averaged 7.96 YPP)
2022 - #1
2023 - #3 (LSU averaged 8.49 YPP, Oregon averaged 7.63 YPP)
2024 - #1
2025 - #1

So, that 2024 offense was the 4th best offense of the last 5 years on a per play basis. Absolutely insane. If we land directly in the middle of 2024 and 2025, here's where we'd be:

2024 YPP - 7.56
2025 YPP - 5.96

Dead middle is 6.76 YPP. Here's where 6.76 YPP ranks you the last 5 years:

2025 - 8th
2024 - 4th
2023 - 11th
2022 - 11th
2021 - 6th

I'm with you, I think this offense can and should finish right around here. Roughly 10th in yards per play and scoring offense is a reasonable expectation. I do not expect 2024 levels with the defense being what it is. Just look at the defenses of the teams who had better offenses than our 2024 version:

2021 Ohio State -- 40th in YPP allowed
2023 LSU -- 103rd in YPP allowed
2023 Oregon - 22nd in YPP allowed
2024 Miami was 48th in YPP allowed

Usually, teams who have the #1 offense in the country do so out of necessity. Their defense isn't very good. I talked about this in my post yesterday ITT. I don't think Miami will have the 40th, or 103rd, etc ranked defense this year. So we won't need the #1 offense.

Top 10 on both sides of the ball pretty much has you as the best team in the country. I'm shooting for 6.5+ YPP on offense and 4.75 YPP allowed on defense. If we do that, we're playing for a natty again.

They key is explosive plays. Alot of analytics had our offense being efficient this past year but we didn’t have enough big plays to sustain drives consistently if we didn’t it could have been a top10-15 offense. That’s going to be the biggest leap this year, and why I think we can reach top5-10 level

 

[Hstokes1447]

These talks about TE production in this offense are comical.

Elijah Arroyo in 2024 averaged 3 catches and 45 yards per game. That position just isn’t used in Dawsons offense as much as some of you guys would like.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

They key is explosive plays. Alot of analytics had our offense being efficient this past year but we didn’t have enough big plays to sustain drives consistently if we didn’t it could have been a top10-15 offense. That’s going to be the biggest leap this year, and why I think we can reach top5-10 level

I would argue the 3 biggest metrics for measuring offensive efficiency are:

Yards per play
Adjusted EPA/play
Success Rate

Here is where Miami ranked in all 3 categories in 2025. Now, one reminder, we played 16 games, the last 4 against very good teams. So this isn't totally perfect, but adjusted EPA does take defenses faced into account:

YPP - 34th
Adjusted EPA/Play - T37th
Success Rate - 37th

So, no. No metrics had our offense being efficient. Certainly not as efficient as what we can and should be in 2026. It was an above-average offense. I do agree that explosive plays have a lot to do with this. But of course they do. When you have an explosive, your YPP goes up, your EPA goes up, and it's a successful play. So it all goes into this. We had FAR more explosives in 2025 than we did in 2024. We were #1 in the country BY A MILE in EPA/play and success rate in 2024.

So yes, we need to be much more efficient this year. You can do that by creating more explosives, which I think we will.

 

[Pearson704]

Mensah will be a breath of fresh air. He throws a better long ball than Cam and I think he will play with more rhythm. I want to see a more consistent Fletcher and healthy seasons from Lyle & Lofton.

 

[LuCane]

I would argue the 3 biggest metrics for measuring offensive efficiency are:

Yards per play
Adjusted EPA/play
Success Rate

Here is where Miami ranked in all 3 categories in 2025. Now, one reminder, we played 16 games, the last 4 against very good teams. So this isn't totally perfect, but adjusted EPA does take defenses faced into account:

YPP - 34th
Adjusted EPA/Play - T37th
Success Rate - 37th

So, no. No metrics had our offense being efficient. Certainly not as efficient as what we can and should be in 2026. It was an above-average offense. I do agree that explosive plays have a lot to do with this. But of course they do. When you have an explosive, your YPP goes up, your EPA goes up, and it's a successful play. So it all goes into this. We had FAR more explosives in 2025 than we did in 2024. We were #1 in the country BY A MILE in EPA/play and success rate in 2024.

So yes, we need to be much more efficient this year. You can do that by creating more explosives, which I think we will.

Red zone %s are also disproportionately helpful in learning what to expect.

 

[LuCane]

I'm also very curious to see how they integrate the ground game into this year's offense. It will also be very interesting to see how they go about utilizing the enormous amount of depth at RB.

I think they want a minimum of 2 healthy backs - ideally, one being Fletcher - going into the presumed playoffs, and will do whatever to make that happen. That'd be my guess of their utilization plan. If Pringle shows he can make all his blocking assignments during games, I'd guess we'd see a healthy dose of Fletcher and Pringle in high leverage games.

 

[Brains]

It's too early for this ****.

Can it be? Yes. Will it be? No. Simply out of necessity, combined with who Mario is. I am not convinced last year changed him. You would think and hope, after the "let it rip" stuff (that I will not add additional commentary to), he and the staff has realized there are no rules against a football team combining an offense like 2024 with a defense like 2025. But he's really conservative by nature.

So, can the offense be as good? I think the pieces are as good. But in 2024, we had the #1 offense in the country because that was the only way we could win games. If we had the 20th, or 30th best offense, we'd have gone 7-5. I don't think that's the case in 2026. We can go 11-1 with the 20th best offense. Now, I'm not saying the staff is going to go into the season with that as their goal. Literally every single offensive play is drawn up to score a touchdown, if it goes perfectly. So they're not going to sit in their pre-camp meetings and say, "OK, we want to have the #25 offense in America". Of course not. But the way they coach in games is going to dictate how we finish. And I think the offense (which will be outstanding) combined with the defense (which will be outstanding) and schedule (which is putrid) will not demand having the #1 offense in America.

Case in point...we scored 52 against Louisville in 2024, and we needed **** near every one of them.
We scored 39 against Cal. Needed literally every one. Scored 38 against VT, almost lost. Scored 38 against Cuse, did lose. Scored 53 against Duke and it was a game well into the 2nd half. I just don't see that this year with this defense.

We won't need 40 against Stanford and Duke and Boston College and Central Michigan and UNC, etc.

My guess is we finish around 10th-15th in YPP and scoring. We were 32nd in the country last year in scoring offense, exactly 30.0 per game. We were #1 at 42.9 PPG in 2024. I expect 2026 to be somewhere in the middle, around 35 per game, which traditionally ranks you around 12th in the country. Mario *should* play for style points all year and push to score 50 a game, but that's not his nature. You know we're going to run the ball. You know we're going to rotate heavily. And if/when we're up 34-10 in the 3rd quarter of a game, he's not going to be screaming at Dawson to hurry up and score more points.

Can it be? Probably. Will it be? No. Mainly because we won’t be it shootouts like we were then.

Both of these posts are correct, but I am going to put another twist on it. While Mario is conservative by nature, I don't believe the offense will be letting off the gas this season. There are several reasons:

1) The staff knows it needs margin of victory and "style points" from the run-in to the playoffs last year;
2) We are a deep team at WR and RB. You need to keep giving them reps/touches so that they are fresh and ready when their number is called;
3) 100% focus. You cannot be championship contender if you get complacent at any point.

We will keep running the offense full tilt with the 2s and 3s in the 4th quarter.

 

[JHallCanes]

I keep wondering why they let us score toward the end. And day didn’t call a timeout after one of the downs. Was pretty strange lol if you plan to let us score, use the timeout

Yeah it’s always good to rewatch those playoff games because in the moment I was just way too hype and bouncing off walls

Sadly I’ve been connected to OSU for a long time. Day has always been kind of a coRch but a great fundraiser

 

[Stingarov]

It can be better.

All up to the oline development now & early season.

As others have said, Mario is risk averse by nature, and its a bigger risk to mail in entire halves of games than to put up 45+ a game, re: the CFB.

That seemed to become his calculus after SMU, anyway.

 

[Dre]

Fletcher is just as good, if not better. Fletcher will be playing in the NFL.

If the Fletcher/Dawson combo gives us the dude that was destroying the CFP then this year then our offense will be better than we're claiming in here

 

[Trav]

These talks about TE production in this offense are comical.

Elijah Arroyo in 2024 averaged 3 catches and 45 yards per game. That position just isn’t used in Dawsons offense as much as some of yiu guys would like.

I think we're being greedy. If we had an Arroyo type at TE this year it would make us that more unstoppable. I think one of the freshmen will surprise.

 

[LuCane]

Both of these posts are correct, but I am going to put another twist on it. While Mario is conservative by nature, I don't believe the offense will be letting off the gas this season. There are several reasons:

1) The staff knows it needs margin of victory and "style points" from the run-in to the playoffs last year;

If I'm @DMoney and some of you on twitter, I create this "noise" non-stop throughout training camp. The "Mario's going to let it rip from go."

Half joking here, but while Mario and crew consistently say they don't hear outside noise, I think that's untrue. I think they don't LISTEN to outside noise, but hear it.

Would love nothing more than the entire season to be treated the way "let it rip" time unfolded - not only because of the results we got, but because I just think it's a better side to err on.

 

[JHallCanes]

They key is explosive plays. Alot of analytics had our offense being efficient this past year but we didn’t have enough big plays to sustain drives consistently if we didn’t it could have been a top10-15 offense. That’s going to be the biggest leap this year, and why I think we can reach top5-10 level

There was some deep dive analysis (can’t remember where) that showed our offense was such an anomaly last year it was historic

But not in a good way. It was like no other offense that was so bad in explosives ever made it to a title game

This years offense is gonna take a huge dump on last years for sure

 

[Trav]

There was some deep dive analysis (can’t remember where) that showed our offense was such an anomaly last year it was historic

But not in a good way. It was like no other offense that was so bad in explosives ever made it to a title game

This years offense is gonna take a huge dump on last years for sure

Last year's offense was downright brutal to watch at times. That stretch from the 1st half of Stanford to SMU to mopst of Syracuse was downright painful to watch. We're not gonna see anyhting like that tihis year.

 

[JHallCanes]

Last year's offense was downright brutal to watch at times. That stretch from the 1st half of Stanford to SMU to mopst of Syracuse was downright painful to watch. We're not gonna see anyhting like that tihis year.

I think it was @Memnon that made the analogy about QBs being trucks or trailers (something like that)

Beck was solid but especially coming off of injury you could tell the deep ball wasn’t there. He was more of a trailer and we didn’t have much at WR or TE to help him

Mensah is a truck like Cam was and we’ve given him a crazy amount of talent to work with

 

[Brains]

If I'm @DMoney and some of you on twitter, I create this "noise" non-stop throughout training camp. The "Mario's going to let it rip from go."

Half joking here, but while Mario and crew consistently say they don't hear outside noise, I think that's untrue. I think they don't LISTEN to outside noise, but hear it.

Would love nothing more than the entire season to be treated the way "let it rip" time unfolded - not only because of the results we got, but because I just think it's a better side to err on.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I believe both internal and external incentives are aligned to play this way. It's a matter of necessity more than desire.

 

[Trafficante]