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Can this offense be as good as ‘24?

If the OL news is true and we may start the season down a starter on an OL that was already not the deepest unit, I don’t think we get to the 2024 offense.
 
JHallCanes said:
Itz gunuh bee mor uhfishiynt
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Team History GIF by ClickUp
 
cway313 said:
This is simply not true.
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It's kind of true. Arroyo had 11 receptions during his first three years at Miami, and nobody was really talking about him. McCormick probably got more **** on this board that offseason than pretty much every single player we've had in the Mario era. Then you had Williams, who rarely played in 2023 and was extremely young.

The TE room got so much **** in 2023, and it was the biggest question mark on offense going into the 24 season
 
Def should be top 5 offense this yr.

Having a healthy qb thats constantly building rapport with his offensive line and receivers. Def big deal.
 
ST26 said:
It's kind of true. Arroyo had 11 receptions during his first three years at Miami, and nobody was really talking about him. McCormick probably got more **** on this board that offseason than pretty much every single player we've had in the Mario era. Then you had Williams, who rarely played in 2023 and was extremely young.

The TE room got so much **** in 2023, and it was the biggest question mark on offense going into the 24 season
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Correct. A lot of people were writing Arroyo off in 2024 because he did play in 2023, but he did virtually nothing. I remember vividly at the time trying to tell people that ACL injuries in college are very typically 2 year injuries. At the pro level, with the resources you have to rehab, it's often much quicker. But in college, so many of these kids are really not right until the year after your first year back.

Arroyo tore his knee up in mid 2022. Played in 2023, and wasn't right. As I essentially expected. So coming into 2024, people weren't really excited about him, because he'd caught one (1) pass in 2023. He was a major, major question mark. McCormick was the butt of every single old man joke and not expected to do much of anything. Riley Williams was probably the most exciting player at that time, because he was so highly rated and he did play in 2023, but it's not like he was anything even close to established. He caught 8 balls his true freshman year. And Elija Lofton, again, tons of hype as we know, but a true freshman.

So yeah, 2024 was just as much of a question mark at TE as it is today. Injured Arroyo. 700 year old McCormick. Sophomore Riley Williams. True freshman Elija Lofton.

2026 you've got 3rd year Lofton, who hasn't lived up to expectations (discussed ad nauseum on here). Luka Gilbert, who has done nothing. Gavin Mueller is a true freshman. And Izzy Briggs, who really isn't a TE.
 
Where Miami's 2024 537 Yds Per Game offense would've ranked the last 5 years

2025 - #1
2024 - #1
2023 - #2
2022 - #1
2021 - #2

Basically - 2024 was the 3rd best offense in the last 5 years.

I'll be very happy if we land in the middle between 2024 & 2025

2024 - 537 yds game / 43.9 pts game
2025 - 405 yds game / 30.9 pts game
 
bshaw28 said:
Where Miami's 2024 537 Yds Per Game offense would've ranked the last 5 years

2025 - #1
2024 - #1
2023 - #2
2022 - #1
2021 - #2

Basically - 2024 was the 3rd best offense in the last 5 years.

I'll be very happy if we land in the middle between 2024 & 2025

2024 - 537 yds game / 43.9 pts game
2025 - 405 yds game / 30.9 pts game
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Yards per game is a ****** metric. Obviously being sky high in it means you have a great offense, but pace dictates so much of that. Yards per play is a much better indicator of true efficiency.

In 2024, we averaged 7.56 yards per play. Here's the ranks the last 5 years:

2021 - #2 (Ohio State averaged 7.96 YPP)
2022 - #1
2023 - #3 (LSU averaged 8.49 YPP, Oregon averaged 7.63 YPP)
2024 - #1
2025 - #1

So, that 2024 offense was the 4th best offense of the last 5 years on a per play basis. Absolutely insane. If we land directly in the middle of 2024 and 2025, here's where we'd be:

2024 YPP - 7.56
2025 YPP - 5.96

Dead middle is 6.76 YPP. Here's where 6.76 YPP ranks you the last 5 years:

2025 - 8th
2024 - 4th
2023 - 11th
2022 - 11th
2021 - 6th

I'm with you, I think this offense can and should finish right around here. Roughly 10th in yards per play and scoring offense is a reasonable expectation. I do not expect 2024 levels with the defense being what it is. Just look at the defenses of the teams who had better offenses than our 2024 version:

2021 Ohio State -- 40th in YPP allowed
2023 LSU -- 103rd in YPP allowed
2023 Oregon - 22nd in YPP allowed
2024 Miami was 48th in YPP allowed

Usually, teams who have the #1 offense in the country do so out of necessity. Their defense isn't very good. I talked about this in my post yesterday ITT. I don't think Miami will have the 40th, or 103rd, etc ranked defense this year. So we won't need the #1 offense.

Top 10 on both sides of the ball pretty much has you as the best team in the country. I'm shooting for 6.5+ YPP on offense and 4.75 YPP allowed on defense. If we do that, we're playing for a natty again.
 
I think it’ll be better in the sense that it’ll be more efficient. ‘24 offense was a score fast kind of offense with a lot of big chunk plays. The ‘26 offense will be able to score fast or score on long, sustained drives when defenses try back their safeties off and keep everything underneath. Mali and Barkate with eat them alive in that situation while Fletcher, Brown, Pringle and Lyle average 5-6 yards per carry.
 
Empirical Cane said:
I'll offer an alternative: I believe Mario learned from last year and will be forced to run up the score

One of the narratives towards the end of the regular season was Miami's lower ppg vs Notre Lame. With ACC likely only getting one team in again in 2026 (my opinion), I believe Miami must light up the score board by air and on the ground each week to give the committee no room to leave them out of the Top 12 should a stumble happen.

Remember, there are really only 11 slots with the Domers guaranteed a bid.
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We can stumble as long as it's Notre dame!...no acc losses is a must because if we lose an acc game the domers become a must win!
 
htownkidd said:
Can it be? Probably. Will it be? No. Mainly because we won’t be it shootouts like we were then.
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I would hope staff recognizes optics of wins are almost as important as wins for playoff committee, esp w our schedules
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Correct. A lot of people were writing Arroyo off in 2024 because he did play in 2023, but he did virtually nothing. I remember vividly at the time trying to tell people that ACL injuries in college are very typically 2 year injuries. At the pro level, with the resources you have to rehab, it's often much quicker. But in college, so many of these kids are really not right until the year after your first year back.

Arroyo tore his knee up in mid 2022. Played in 2023, and wasn't right. As I essentially expected. So coming into 2024, people weren't really excited about him, because he'd caught one (1) pass in 2023. He was a major, major question mark. McCormick was the butt of every single old man joke and not expected to do much of anything. Riley Williams was probably the most exciting player at that time, because he was so highly rated and he did play in 2023, but it's not like he was anything even close to established. He caught 8 balls his true freshman year. And Elija Lofton, again, tons of hype as we know, but a true freshman.

So yeah, 2024 was just as much of a question mark at TE as it is today. Injured Arroyo. 700 year old McCormick. Sophomore Riley Williams. True freshman Elija Lofton.

2026 you've got 3rd year Lofton, who hasn't lived up to expectations (discussed ad nauseum on here). Luka Gilbert, who has done nothing. Gavin Mueller is a true freshman. And Izzy Briggs, who really isn't a TE.
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I'd take another look at how Briggs looks lately.
 
Miami OSU game on right now

Mali sealing the block that led to CJ Daniels first down to end the game basically was beautiful

And Marty Brown was doing hard work in this one
 
JHallCanes said:
Miami OSU game on right now

Mali sealing the block that led to CJ Daniels first down to end the game basically was beautiful

And Marty Brown was doing hard work in this one
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I keep wondering why they let us score toward the end. And day didn’t call a timeout after one of the downs. Was pretty strange lol if you plan to let us score, use the timeout
 
LuCane said:
Depends on:

1. Dawson via Mario in terms of disposition
2. RT
3. Center, especially health
4. LT
5. Willingness to maximize receivers on the field

Health is always a concern, but that's obviously uncontrollable.
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So, 3/5 of the OL. 🤢
 
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