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Bracketology Watch

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Gables Canes said:
He moved UNC all the way up to an 8. It's like everyone forgets we beat them by 30.
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Was thinking that too. That was our most impressive win (in terms of point differential) of the season. One of our only "easy" wins. Of course, that UNC team hardly resembles the one who beat Duke the other night.
 
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Heart of The Playmaker said:
Clueless...some brackets have us 9
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Lunardi has us at 10 v. Marquette

CBS has us 10 v. Iowa St.

While I've seen other "experts" penciling Miami in at 11 v. USC.

For some reason, UVA is getting a lot of love and are expected to make a run in the ACC tournament. All Miami has to do is keep winning and proving the "experts" wrong.
 
Silentobserver said:
Lunardi has us at 10 v. Marquette

CBS has us 10 v. Iowa St.

While I've seen other "experts" penciling Miami in at 11 v. USC.

For some reason, UVA is getting a lot of love and are expected to make a run in the ACC tournament. All Miami has to do is keep winning and proving the "experts" wrong.
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CBB coverage is a joke in general
 
Notsince1985 said:
Wasn't Miami a 9 in Lunardi before we beat SU?
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www.espn.com

Bracketology: Here comes Houston ... now and into March and April

Somehow the Cougars have gotten lost as Purdue, Kansas, UConn and Arizona dominate the No. 1 seed discussions. Yet Houston is one win away from entering its first Big 12 season undefeated.
www.espn.com

10 seed despite the win.

Unfortunately, if Miami doesn't make a bit of a run in the NCAA tournament, then all the experts would have been proven correct regardless of context: seeding, location, path, etc.

I don't follow many teams beyond Miami (the only teams that catch my eye might be those in the top 5-10); so, I can't say who belongs and who doesn't. But, Lunardi has ND as a 10 seed as well but playing in Indianapolis while Miami is a 10 playing in Greenville.

UNC is an 8 seed (crazy) but playing out west in San Diego with Arizona as a round 2 game. So UNC has a better seed than Miami but not a better path.

Creighton is a 10 seed in Greenville, San Francisco is a 9 seed playing 8 seed MSU.

I don't know how likely Lunardi's predictions are especially with the conference tournaments still to be played.
 
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I think we are safely in. I think we’d have to lose to Boston College AND have Virginia Tech or Virginia win the tournament to not get in. I don’t think a loss to Wake hurts, and if we somehow lose to BC, I think Wake Forest is the odd team out, not us—unless UVa or Va Tech steals a bubble spot by winning the tourney.

Of course, I thought we should’ve been in in 2015 as well. That was the year we didn’t get in and the refs screwed us in the last 5 seconds of the NIT Championship against Stanford.
 
Hotel Ibis said:
I think we are safely in. I think we’d have to lose to Boston College AND have Virginia Tech or Virginia win the tournament to not get in. I don’t think a loss to Wake hurts, and if we somehow lose to BC, I think Wake Forest is the odd team out, not us—unless UVa or Va Tech steals a bubble spot by winning the tourney.

Of course, I thought we should’ve been in in 2015 as well. That was the year we didn’t get in and the refs screwed us in the last 5 seconds of the NIT Championship against Stanford.
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Agreed. I think a lot of unforeseen chaos would have to occur for us not to get in at this point.
 
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King of Allapattah said:
For you hoops history buffs out there, has there ever been a time where a top 4 team in the ACC with 22 regular season wins gets left out of the NCAAT? Rest easy fellas. Miami is going dancing! There is 0% chance the selection committee leaves us out.

GO CANES!!!
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I think we are in too, but it still behooves you to beat BC and avoid adding a 4th Quad 3 loss to the resume. We already have 3 losses either in Quad 3 or Quad 4, and outside of perhaps Dayton and Virginia (who are fringe bubble candidates at best), no other bubble teams have more than 2. I think having a winning record against Quad 1+2 teams and the strong overall road record would overcome that in the end, but don't leave it to chance.

To play Devil's Advocate, though...in 2013, Virginia was the 4 seed in the ACC tournament with a 21-10 regular season record before falling to NC State (a much better opponent than this year's BC) in their first game of the conference tournament. They ended up getting sent to the NIT. And during the Kenpom era (going back to 1997), there have only been two years where the ACC wasn't ranked on his metrics as a top 5 league. One was 2013, and the other is this season. Like this season's Miami, 2013 Virginia had some good wins at the top (Duke, at Wisconsin) but took more questionable losses than other bubble teams around them that they got knocked for.

Now I do think the losses that 2013 Virginia took were worse overall than our losses (we have nothing close to resembling the loss to a 5-25 Old Dominion team on our resume that they had), and 2013 Virginia only had three road/neutral wins combined compared to our ten road wins plus two neutral court wins. That is why you can be more optimistic about Miami making it as opposed to what happened with Virginia.
 
So people really see a scenario we don’t make the tournament with a loss today? Honestly hadn’t even crossed my mind. I was pretty certain we were playing for seeding at this point.
 
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stoopid311 said:
So people really see a scenario we don’t make the tournament with a loss today? Honestly hadn’t even crossed my mind. I was pretty certain we were playing for seeding at this point.
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If we were playing Wake Forest, I'd agree. But playing BC offers only downside to the resume.

I think even with a loss, I would put us at least at 90-95% at making the field. A lot would have to be working against us in other tournaments. But going off of Bracket Matrix, we are an 11 seed, 7 spots from the cut line. Here are the listed 10 seeds, 11 seeds, 12 seeds, and first few teams out of the tournament:

10: Creighton, Memphis, Michigan, Davidson
11: Loyola (locked), Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
12: Xavier, Wyoming, Rutgers, SMU, North Texas (current AQ), South Dakota St. (locked)
Bubble: VCU, Indiana, BYU, Dayton

Hypothetically, lets say the conference results are as follows:

- ACC: Miami loses to BC, Duke beats Notre Dame in the finals with ND beating UNC in the semis. Notre Dame likely jumps us in this scenario, and losing to BC makes it more of a debate between whether Miami or Wake should be ahead in the pecking order (I think it should be Miami, but I've seen others hold the Wake over Miami position coming into the conference tournament)
- Big Ten: Indiana goes on a run, beats Michigan, Illinois, and Rutgers (who beat Iowa). Doesn't matter what they do in the championship game, Indiana likely jumps into the field. Rutgers with the Iowa win puts themselves in better position, and while Michigan doesn't get any wins, they only add a Quad 1 loss to their resume.
- American: SMU beats Memphis and Houston on the path to winning the conference tournament. The AAC becomes a 3 bid league.
- Atlantic 10: Dayton defeats Davidson in the championship game. Dayton steals a bid, and Davidson likely holds on to their bid. The A10 becomes a 2 bid league.
- Mountain West: Wyoming beats UNLV and Boise State to advance to the MWC championship game, and faces either Colorado St./San Diego St. That should be enough to solidify the MWC as a 4 bid league.
- CUSA: UAB defeats North Texas in the championship game. I think the CUSA is a 1-bid league regardless, but UNT is at least in striking distance of being on the bubble were they to lose. It's tough to rationalize taking them over Miami, though, especially with the neutral court win.

I don't see Memphis, Michigan, or Davidson falling behind us in that scenario. SMU and Dayton lock in bids, so that drops us to 5 spots ahead of the cut line. Notre Dame, Rutgers, Indiana, and Wyoming could theoretically jump us with these results. If all of those teams do, that puts us 1 spot away from the cut line, with debates against Wake Forest, Xavier, and maybe North Texas for the final spot. I think Miami still gets that final spot even if all that happens, but I certainly wouldn't be feeling comfortable.

Clearly, though, it would take a lot of unfortunate results all lining up perfectly to get to that position.
 
mtsucalico85 said:
If we were playing Wake Forest, I'd agree. But playing BC offers only downside to the resume.

I think even with a loss, I would put us at least at 90-95% at making the field. A lot would have to be working against us in other tournaments. But going off of Bracket Matrix, we are an 11 seed, 7 spots from the cut line. Here are the listed 10 seeds, 11 seeds, 12 seeds, and first few teams out of the tournament:

10: Creighton, Memphis, Michigan, Davidson
11: Loyola (locked), Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
12: Xavier, Wyoming, Rutgers, SMU, North Texas (current AQ), South Dakota St. (locked)
Bubble: VCU, Indiana, BYU, Dayton

Hypothetically, lets say the conference results are as follows:

- ACC: Miami loses to BC, Duke beats Notre Dame in the finals with ND beating UNC in the semis. Notre Dame likely jumps us in this scenario, and losing to BC makes it more of a debate between whether Miami or Wake should be ahead in the pecking order (I think it should be Miami, but I've seen others hold the Wake over Miami position coming into the conference tournament)
- Big Ten: Indiana goes on a run, beats Michigan, Illinois, and Rutgers (who beat Iowa). Doesn't matter what they do in the championship game, Indiana likely jumps into the field. Rutgers with the Iowa win puts themselves in better position, and while Michigan doesn't get any wins, they only add a Quad 1 loss to their resume.
- American: SMU beats Memphis and Houston on the path to winning the conference tournament. The AAC becomes a 3 bid league.
- Atlantic 10: Dayton defeats Davidson in the championship game. Dayton steals a bid, and Davidson likely holds on to their bid. The A10 becomes a 2 bid league.
- Mountain West: Wyoming beats UNLV and Boise State to advance to the MWC championship game, and faces either Colorado St./San Diego St. That should be enough to solidify the MWC as a 4 bid league.
- CUSA: UAB defeats North Texas in the championship game. I think the CUSA is a 1-bid league regardless, but UNT is at least in striking distance of being on the bubble were they to lose. It's tough to rationalize taking them over Miami, though, especially with the neutral court win.

I don't see Memphis, Michigan, or Davidson falling behind us in that scenario. SMU and Dayton lock in bids, so that drops us to 5 spots ahead of the cut line. Notre Dame, Rutgers, Indiana, and Wyoming could theoretically jump us with these results. If all of those teams do, that puts us 1 spot away from the cut line, with debates against Wake Forest, Xavier, and maybe North Texas for the final spot. I think Miami still gets that final spot even if all that happens, but I certainly wouldn't be feeling comfortable.

Clearly, though, it would take a lot of unfortunate results all lining up perfectly to get to that position.
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Awesome post. Thanks for the thorough info. Let's just beat the brakes off BC and put this nonsense to rest.
 
King of Allapattah said:
For you hoops history buffs out there, has there ever been a time where a top 4 team in the ACC with 22 regular season wins gets left out of the NCAAT? Rest easy fellas. Miami is going dancing! There is 0% chance the selection committee leaves us out.

GO CANES!!!
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Starting to think that there is a real chance that this happens, but Notre Dame would be the team that it happens to. Compare their resume to a team like VCU, who is on the bubble but most places have them out of the field at this time.

Notre Dame:
Record: 22-10 (21-10 vs. D1 competition)
Road Record: 7-5
Road + Neutral Record: 7-9 (6-9 vs. D1 competition)
Q1 Record: 3-7
Q2 Record: 1-2
Losses vs Q3/Q4: 1

VCU:
Record: 21-8
Road Record: 9-2
Road + Neutral Record: 10-3
Q1 Record: 3-3
Q2 Record: 3-4
Losses vs Q3/Q4: 1

Now the Quad 1 wins that Notre Dame has (Kentucky, North Carolina, at Miami) are a stronger group than the wins VCU has (at Vanderbilt, at Dayton, at Davidson). But those resumes are otherwise pretty **** similar, with VCU equaling Notre Dame in many metrics, if not outright being ahead of them. And VCU shouldn't face any teams that aren't at least Q2 in the A10 Tournament (they have Q2 Richmond tonight), so they can still improve their resume while the opportunity for a adding a second Q3/Q4 loss won't be there.

I wouldn't feel comfortable about getting into the field if I was a Notre Dame fan right now. And there certainly appears to be a path where the ACC is only a 3 bid league (Duke, Miami, UNC), especially with Indiana and Texas A&M making a run in their tournaments.
 
mtsucalico85 said:
Starting to think that there is a real chance that this happens, but Notre Dame would be the team that it happens to. Compare their resume to a team like VCU, who is on the bubble but most places have them out of the field at this time.

Notre Dame:
Record: 22-10 (21-10 vs. D1 competition)
Road Record: 7-5
Road + Neutral Record: 7-9 (6-9 vs. D1 competition)
Q1 Record: 3-7
Q2 Record: 1-2
Losses vs Q3/Q4: 1

VCU:
Record: 21-8
Road Record: 9-2
Road + Neutral Record: 10-3
Q1 Record: 3-3
Q2 Record: 3-4
Losses vs Q3/Q4: 1

Now the Quad 1 wins that Notre Dame has (Kentucky, North Carolina, at Miami) are a stronger group than the wins VCU has (at Vanderbilt, at Dayton, at Davidson). But those resumes are otherwise pretty **** similar, with VCU equaling Notre Dame in many metrics, if not outright being ahead of them. And VCU shouldn't face any teams that aren't at least Q2 in the A10 Tournament (they have Q2 Richmond tonight), so they can still improve their resume while the opportunity for a adding a second Q3/Q4 loss won't be there.

I wouldn't feel comfortable about getting into the field if I was a Notre Dame fan right now. And there certainly appears to be a path where the ACC is only a 3 bid league (Duke, Miami, UNC), especially with Indiana and Texas A&M making a run in their tournaments.
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Sucks for ND but they get every other luxury in life and sports otherwise. Yeah I wouldn’t feel bad for them
 
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