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Best case/Worst case Season Outlook -- Offense

OrangeBowlMagic said:
Catch the football. ****, if anything, for Beck's psyche. The first time he hits a WR in the hands and buddy spikes the ball into the grass, he's gonna have PTSD.

Last year, the receivers were very good at doing the literal main thing a wide receiver should do, which is catch the ball. All of those kids are gone. I have 100% confidence the skills of Jojo Trader, for example, combined with the scheme of Shannon Dawson is going to have him open on a big play in the ND game. I have 100% confidence the line will protect, and Beck will deliver a catchable ball. Will it be caught? That's my main concern here. Restrepo caught every ball near him, even when he was flat on his ***. Will the replacements be able to do the same consistently?
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I totally agree and this is why I like the addition of Tony Johnson so much, in over 100 career targets he only has 3 drops.
 
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I’ve seen several people (not just OP) talk about Beck potentially being a game manager. Not really sure where this theory comes from.

Cam Ward attempted 454 passes at UM last year. Beck attempted 448 at UGA, albeit with an extra game or two. But Miami was trailing big several time in 2H last year forcing them to abandon the run game.

I’ve not seen much evidence that Shannon Dawson will abandon the pass if his QB1 is competent and healthy. He didn’t abandon it when he had a (arguably) incompetent QB1 in TVD. Smash mouth and game management are not in Shannon Dawson’s DNA.

I would be surprised if a healthy Beck had less than 400 pass attempts this coming season.
 
scrantoncane said:
I’ve seen several people (not just OP) talk about Beck potentially being a game manager. Not really sure where this theory comes from.

Cam Ward attempted 454 passes at UM last year. Beck attempted 448 at UGA, albeit with an extra game or two. But Miami was trailing big several time in 2H last year forcing them to abandon the run game.

I’ve not seen much evidence that Shannon Dawson will abandon the pass if his QB1 is competent and healthy. He didn’t abandon it when he had a (arguably) incompetent QB1 in TVD. Smash mouth and game management are not in Shannon Dawson’s DNA.

I would be surprised if a healthy Beck had less than 400 pass attempts this coming season.
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Miss state was terrible last year but I watched the extended highlights of Georgia against them from last year. Beal was slinging it around dropping bombs. Did have a pick and a deflection pick tho
 
NJshoreCane said:
Nice write-up.

I know we won't be better on offense, but I'm looking for the offense to be more consistent through the mid-quarters this year.
Let's eliminate that 2nd quarter slog where we averaged 6.8 points per quarter (extrapolated at 27 ppg) when you take out FAMU & Ball St.
In the 3rd quarter we upped our game to 'average' @ 8 ppq.

As great as our offense was, we only averaged 14.8 ppg in the 2nd and 3rd vs comp with a pulse....which gave us all agita.
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I agree that would be nice but it doesn't always work that way. We may wish that we get better at 2nd and 3rd quarter, get that wish but flip the script, and get our 2nd and 3rd quarter results in the 1st and 4th. I don't care and I don't think it really matters when the points are scored. The games aren't played on paper. Statistics and analytics are tools used to help us understand and make informed decisions. I'm not saying they don't matter, they do. We can make the best choices to analytics based on the statistics and the data but still lose the game.

The only thing that matters is that they are scored. I don't care if we're the worst 2nd and 3rd quarter team in the country as long as we're still averaging ~34-35 points per game.

As far as the bolded, we garnered the name Cardiac Canes for a reason. That feeling will always be there even if we're the best team in the country.
 
scrantoncane said:
I’ve seen several people (not just OP) talk about Beck potentially being a game manager. Not really sure where this theory comes from.

Cam Ward attempted 454 passes at UM last year. Beck attempted 448 at UGA, albeit with an extra game or two. But Miami was trailing big several time in 2H last year forcing them to abandon the run game.

I’ve not seen much evidence that Shannon Dawson will abandon the pass if his QB1 is competent and healthy. He didn’t abandon it when he had a (arguably) incompetent QB1 in TVD. Smash mouth and game management are not in Shannon Dawson’s DNA.

I would be surprised if a healthy Beck had less than 400 pass attempts this coming season.
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If we paid millions for a “game manager” every human being involved should be fired

It’s an absurd assumption

People keep using these terms as a nice way of saying “boring”

Ya know “efficient” “on time” “balanced”

It’s a nice way of saying boring

Dawson isn’t a boring OC and Beck isn’t a game manager. Just because we have a good OL doesn’t mean it’s 3 yards and a cloud of dust
 
I definitely don’t expect Beck to be a game manager and I fully expect Dawson to have him slinging it all over the field again. I do expect him to stay on schedule a little more than Cam and freelance less. I don’t expect Beck to drift backwards so often trying to buy receivers time to get open on deep routes. I don’t expect him to have to work a magic trick to get out of a sack because he held the ball for five seconds. A lot of what made Cam such a special player was also the worst part of his game. A lot of “live by the sword, die by the sword” with him. I fully expect Beck to settle for the check down A LOT more than Cam.
 
DTP said:
I definitely don’t expect Beck to be a game manager and I fully expect Dawson to have him slinging it all over the field again. I do expect him to stay on schedule a little more than Cam and freelance less. I don’t expect Beck to drift backwards so often trying to buy receivers time to get open on deep routes. I don’t expect him to have to work a magic trick to get out of a sack because he held the ball for five seconds. A lot of what made Cam such a special player was also the worst part of his game. A lot of “live by the sword, die by the sword” with him. I fully expect Beck to settle for the check down A LOT more than Cam.
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That Cal INT for a TD had to be one of the worst throws any Miami QB has ever made
 
FWIW I never said he'd be a game-manager.

I said the worst-case scenario is Dawson has to scale back from what we did with Cam because Beck turns the ball over too much, but I think that term is very misunderstood in general. It's not a bad thing. It's just playing more in the structure of the offense, not improvising, giving the QB easier, usually shorter throws, etc.

But again, that's worst-case, to me. This kid has proven that he's good enough to be, even at his worst, a well above-average QB. He's not going to be Emory Williams against Clemson. That's not a game-manager, that's completely masking your QB's deficiencies.

Ohio State won a natty last year with a "game manager" at QB. It's not a bad thing. And again, I think this is my worst-case scenario. Best-case is buddy is fully comfortable with the offense and is changing plays, playing improv, moving around in the pocket and having a high aDOT.
 
JamesQuall said:
I agree that would be nice but it doesn't always work that way. We may wish that we get better at 2nd and 3rd quarter, get that wish but flip the script, and get our 2nd and 3rd quarter results in the 1st and 4th. I don't care and I don't think it really matters when the points are scored. The games aren't played on paper. Statistics and analytics are tools used to help us understand and make informed decisions. I'm not saying they don't matter, they do. We can make the best choices to analytics based on the statistics and the data but still lose the game.

The only thing that matters is that they are scored. I don't care if we're the worst 2nd and 3rd quarter team in the country as long as we're still averaging ~34-35 points per game.

As far as the bolded, we garnered the name Cardiac Canes for a reason. That feeling will always be there even if we're the best team in the country.
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I agree that you can't pick apart stats.
Believe me, I'm not big on "if you takeaway this, it coulda/woulda/shoulda" stuff.
You are who you are...
But ****, the second quarter bog-down reared it's ugly head in 5 of 8 conference games.
I guess if we fielded something called a defense, the bog would have been more tolerable.
 
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JHallCanes said:
Good post

The Martinez to Lyle swap is what we need

Keep reading people say we will be a better running team this year and while it’s possible, I think it’s just more blatant disrespect to what Damien Martinez did for our team last year

Better run team. More ball control. More efficient etc blah blah blah

We were literally unstoppable on 3rd and 4th and short last year (let’s not even talk Red Zone yet)

You can’t get better than what we were but I hope we keep it close and Lyle adds the homerun threat at RB we’ve lacked for a long time
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I think the open question is -- can we cover enough of what we lose in Martinez through Fletcher and Lofton, while gaining the all-purpose back who can burn opponents with big plays?
 
I think fans have tempered expectations after 20+ years of mediocrity and seeing a historic offense undermined by a historically bad defense last season. Or at least they don't want to publicly air their hopes.

We have a playoff caliber roster. Trusting that Hetherman's 4i defense holds up against top competition, I would argue we have a roster that could make a deep run in the playoffs. It's now up to the team (both coaches and players) to deliver on their promise.
 
grover said:
I think the open question is -- can we cover enough of what we lose in Martinez through Fletcher and Lofton, while gaining the all-purpose back who can burn opponents with big plays?
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There’s only one ball though. You can’t make up for one player by using multiple especially when one is a carry over imo

That said I am in no way shape or form suggesting Fletcher can’t get better or Lofton can’t make an impact, or Lyle be a bigtime back

It’s just difficult to envision it all at the moment

I’m optimistic though about the offense
 
TrumpyCane said:
That Cal INT for a TD had to be one of the worst throws any Miami QB has ever made
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Ideally, you’d prefer your quarterback to not have so many “what the **** are you doing????” moments. Still, at least half of those last year turned into big plays for us.
 
25-30 is worst case imo for offense. Best case being 10-15. Think this unit is built to be stable, no more boom or bust. We will move the chains, we will finish games, we will be consistent
 
MumbleRap said:
25-30 is worst case imo for offense. Best case being 10-15. Think this unit is built to be stable, no more boom or bust. We will move the chains, we will finish games, we will be consistent
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Y'all need to stop. This unit didn't boom or bust last year. It didn't bust. It only boomed. Metro Boomin. Boom Boom Room. Hiroshima and Nagasaki booms.

We had ONE game all season where we averaged below 6.69 yards per play. One. And it was FSU, a game we literally controlled from pregame warmups. That's all. Other than that, in the other 11 games (and the bowl game, although I don't count exhibitions), we averaged at least 6.69 a play.

6.69 a play would have ranked 6th in the country for the entire season.

So, for every single game except the FSU game, THE WORST PERFORMANCE would have been 6th best in America.

We punted 25 times the entire season. Twenty-five punts. In 13 football games. Army, who runs the ball every play, had 25 punts. The next closest team to us had 32 punts. The gators punted 59 times.

This was the best offense in America, by a considerable margin. It was all boom, all the time. This offense this year isn't set-up to be more stable, because you can't be more stable than every time I touch the football I stuff a touchdown up your brown eye.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Y'all need to stop. This unit didn't boom or bust last year. It didn't bust. It only boomed. Metro Boomin. Boom Boom Room. Hiroshima and Nagasaki booms.

We had ONE game all season where we averaged below 6.69 yards per play. One. And it was FSU, a game we literally controlled from pregame warmups. That's all. Other than that, in the other 11 games (and the bowl game, although I don't count exhibitions), we averaged at least 6.69 a play.

6.69 a play would have ranked 6th in the country for the entire season.

So, for every single game except the FSU game, THE WORST PERFORMANCE would have been 6th best in America.

We punted 25 times the entire season. Twenty-five punts. In 13 football games. Army, who runs the ball every play, had 25 punts. The next closest team to us had 32 punts. The gators punted 59 times.

This was the best offense in America, by a considerable margin. It was all boom, all the time. This offense this year isn't set-up to be more stable, because you can't be more stable than every time I touch the football I stuff a touchdown up your brown eye.
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This year's offense won't score as many point or be as good statistically but it will be more efficient.
 
JamesQuall said:
This year's offense won't score as many point or be as good statistically but it will be more efficient.
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We held the ball for 32:30 a game, averaged 100 more yards per game than the 15th best offense and scored 36 points in every game but one, but I feel like this year's team is set up to do even better, with less effort. I heard Dawson say we might play 9 or 10 guys on some snaps to keep everyone fresh, and if we punt, he's going to douse a random member of the offense in gasoline and shoot them with a flaming arrow.

We scored 73 touchdowns LMAO.

Punts - 25
Turnovers - 16
Stopped on downs - 7

So we had 48 drives end by giving the ball to the other team without attempting a scoring play.
We had 73 drives end by sticking the ball into the opposing endzone.

Be better, Shannon.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We held the ball for 32:30 a game, averaged 100 more yards per game than the 15th best offense and scored 36 points in every game but one, but I feel like this year's team is set up to do even better, with less effort. I heard Dawson say we might play 9 or 10 guys on some snaps to keep everyone fresh, and if we punt, he's going to douse a random member of the offense in gasoline and shoot them with a flaming arrow.
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Season 3 Thank You GIF by The Office
 
Scott, Trader, Toure, and Auburn are the 4 guys we need to be really good in order to have our best-case season.
 
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