App is the best team in the worst FBS conference so make of that what you will. Not all G5 conferences are created equal so the “they’re a solid g5 program” line is subjective. They’re not UCF, Cincinnati or Boise. They’re likely worse than the UAB team we played last year. They’re not FCS so Miami won’t be able to sleep walk and still win big. We’ll see exactly the type of team we have. If they come out fired up and playing hard, this game is a blowout. If they’re lackadaisical and still worried about Alabama it’ll be tighter.
The point spread is a 100% reaction to last week’s game. The nation saw Bama kill Miami and still thinks “isn’t App State that school that beat Michigan that one time?” We had a similar theme last year when Miami opened up as a 10 point favorite against a much better Pitt team after getting smoked by Clemson the week prior. The line eventually made it’s way up to 13 by game time and Miami still covered. I expect the line for this game to work it’s way into double digits and Miami covers easily.
If the Hurricanes play like crap, I’ll officially give up on anything worthwhile happening this year.