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And so it begins…..CFP rankings chat

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Essex Cane said:
Why even play the games? Ridiculous
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It will be interesting to see if things change at all when the SEC moves to the 9-game conference schedule next year. They’ve traditionally had a cupcake game backloaded in November (many times it’s even an FCS team) to help close out the year, get them back on track in case of injuries, etc.

If they have to switch this up and move to the type of schedule everyone else does, and lose those late-year cupcake games - as they were pressured to do, will the CFP Committee shift its mentality as well?
 
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Yep
 
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Essex Cane said:
Why even play the games? Ridiculous
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I’m with you man. People just completely throw away the first month of the season with individual games, but also use inter-conference records as a data point for what conferences are the best when all of those games are played in that first month. It’s bull****.
 
RVACane said:
We didn’t deserve to be in but we deserved to be in ahead of Bama last year and they put them ahead of us. That was bull****. Again we shot ourselves but they also favor the SEC and it isn’t always justified.
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I’ll agree we had no quality wins last season and didn’t deserve a spot but if we apply the CFP’s logic for snubbing 14-0 FSU in 2023, Miami should have been in the playoffs considering we had the best QB/player in the entire country as well as the best offense. That’s why FSU was left out. Travis was hurt and they disregarded their performance on the field and chose the SEC Chumps and I mean champs Alabama because they “were just a better team, we think”. Completely ignored how FSU trounced LSU and UF, their SEC darlings.

So if 2023 CFP Logic is applied to 2024, Miami should have gotten in over some of the other phonies, perhaps Tennessee or Indiana.
 
Poptimus said:
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Guys, what am I missing? Seems we are in if we win the conference per ESPN.
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Siap; we’re just extremely unlikely to win the conference because of the path to the ACC-CCG. SMU and UL will play each other. Assuming we win out in all of the following scenarios:

If UL beats SMU; and SMU beats UCal then SMU still owns the tiebreaker over Miami. So we’re out. We need SMU to lose both games which isn’t extraordinary however it is unlikely. If SMU loses to UCal but beats UL, SMU still has the edge over us.

UL has to lose to Clemson or else we are outta contention to win the ACC; long story short. If Louisville beats Clemson and loses to SMU, it’s irrelevant that we would jump UL because SMU would have the tiebreaker over us no matter what. We’d need a ton of help still.

If Louisville wins out; then we’d need every other team to lose 2 conference games; or end up in a bizarre multi team tiebreaker that is too complicated to even game out atm.

If UL loses to Clemson and beats SMU; SMU loses to UCAL; now we have a real opening.

Aside from needing a Clemson win, we need the winner of the UVA/Duke game to lose one more game. VT for victorious UVA; or Wake Forest / UNC for a victorious Duke; this outcome triggers a tiebreaker with us three + others. In this scenario, we are still not guaranteed a slot. UVA’s loss to NC State does not count as a in-conference game loss; thus, they only have one conference loss atm.

If Pitt beats GT and GT beats BC, while Miami beats Pitt; Miami is still unlikely to make it. UL beat Pitt, and UL winning out would leapfrog them over Pitt (and us in spite of over tiebreaker win) for the ACC-CCG.

SMU, GT, UVA, Duke, and Pittsburgh all control their own destinies. Miami and Louisville are long-shots with Louisville having better odds than Miami. This is strictly referring to reaching the ACC-CCG.

We need a ridiculous tiebreaker to even have a chance and it’s likely that this dream domino scenario will be extinguished this weekend. Maybe even before Saturday.
 
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Calinative said:
The Committe only truly "Values" H2H when the teams they are comparing are within 3 spots of eachother. The committee had us 8 spots apart from ND just on the resume, which is supposedly supposed to heavily value SOR and Top25 wins. So the H2H never came into place when doing that seeding between us and ND because we were too far apart just on the metric based ranking.

However this week I think louisville likely would fall to around 18-20 (would be a 3-5 fall) due to an OT loss, which would be within 3 spots of where we are. So if that is the case and we are closely rated just on the metrics like SOS+SOR+Game Control+Top25 wins (the metrics the committee looks at), then I think they would then value the H2H matchup. This is why Texas is clearly above OU, they also have similar metrics. It's also why UVA was above Louisville. But honestly UVA has even worse metrics than Louisville does. I think just by record they were slotted highly as their baseline.

Now it IS possible for Louisville to say drop far enough to where that H2H gets essentially devalued in the rankings. They actually are NOT all that great by most of the metrics listed on ESPN (I think committe uses slightly different ratings). SOR UL is 26, FPI 36, SOS 63, Game Control 38... Meanwhile we rank SOR 17, 13 FPI, 39 SOS, 10 Game control. Notre Dame ranks SOR 13, 5 FPI, 30 SOS, 9 Game Control. So it is definitely possible that Louisville does drop a few spots behind us and that H2H doesn't play the deciding factor. Tough to say. And probably the fact that UVA also lost likely makes it more likely Louisville is behind us. I just wouldn't count on it. We'll see. I think if they do rank USF in the top 25 we probably will rank ahead of Louisville (because that would be another top 25 win for us which is more highly valued).....

I could see that being:
12. BYU
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt
15. GTech
16. Miami
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. UVA
20. Louisville
21. Pitt
22. UTenn
23. Iowa
24. USF
25. SMU/Cinci/JMU/idk
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@LuCane I think USF getting that top 25 ranking pushed us ahead of GTech. And yeah Louisville dropped to 20, which is the furthest I saw them falling.

I'm actually most surprised that UVA is still so highly rated tbh.

I think Utah after these first 2 rankings is the team that is the most absurd ranking of them all tbh. And the committee putting Cinci at 25 was literally just an attempt to justify that bs. Illinois prob should have honestly been the 25th team. But I had a feeling they were gunna do that...
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Correct, but they’re not. If Miami wins out and GT wins 3 more in the ACC, including the ACCCG, they’ll jump us.

Let’s put it this way. The books obviously know Miami is ahead of GT today, and they know GT has to play UGA.

But they’re +190 to make the playoff, and Miami is +400. Why? Because they’re going to put the ACC champ at 11-2 higher than a 10-2 Miami team.
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Yes, but also, if we are at large bid at 11, maybe 10...we are in, won't matter 1 Danny Boy Cane Iota who the fook wins this ****** conference. Choklahoma, Tejas going down. Why is a 2 loss Utah ahead? Wont matter, I guarantee they will move us up ahead of those teams, because we get eyeballs just like their favorite ND. Plus, all things being equal, if both go 10-2, they can not reasonably leave us out also, because they will be shown to be the frauds that they are.
 
tdjones34 said:
Miami will get in at 10-2
But do we win 10?
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Do we beat NC State? Every week is an adventure

Every week the past 4 weeks I’m watching the game and saying WTF and my wife is apologizing to me 😂

I’m like… “why are you apologizing? You’re not the reason we are playing like ****”
 
Calinative said:
I think Utah after these first 2 rankings is the team that is the most absurd ranking of them all tbh. And the committee putting Cinci at 25 was literally just an attempt to justify that bs. Illinois prob should have honestly been the 25th team. But I had a feeling they were gunna do that...
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Vandy is still ridiculously high given they’ve been manhandled in both of their losses (don’t care that the Texas game wound up 3, they got killed) and their best win is a 7 point win over Missouri in a game that was tied before Missouri lost their qb in the 3rd quarter.
 
Cficane said:
2 teams behind us to be concerned with would USC and Michigan.
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Michigan agreed; USC is of zero concern. We beat our mutual opponent. We have too many mutual opponent wins to ignore. Alabama, USC, UTexas, and a head to head win against ND. By putting us at 15 already we are in control of our own destiny.

The question just remains how many, if any, ACC teams will come with us if we win out. 99% chance We aren’t going to the acc conference championship.
 
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