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And so it begins…..CFP rankings chat

Vandy is already dead in the water imo. I see zero chance of them making it.

Utah is only relevant if they make it to the BIG12 championship game; which is definitely a possibility given Cincy’s, BYU’s, ASU’s and Houston’s remaining schedules.
 
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I am honestly now hoping for the at large bid, which seems more attainable, than the ACC championship route.

Why would we want to risk a loss there to keep us out of the playoffs?

I understand it’s another avenue, but give me the other route so we can avoid a season ending loss in the ACC
championship game.

I just don’t trust this team or coaching staff to get us an ACC championship win and I want to keep this season going as long as possible.
 
cookies said:
Siap; we’re just extremely unlikely to win the conference because of the path to the ACC-CCG. SMU and UL will play each other. Assuming we win out in all of the following scenarios:

If UL beats SMU; and SMU beats UCal then SMU still owns the tiebreaker over Miami. So we’re out. We need SMU to lose both games which isn’t extraordinary however it is unlikely. If SMU loses to UCal but beats UL, SMU still has the edge over us.

UL has to lose to Clemson or else we are outta contention to win the ACC; long story short. If Louisville beats Clemson and loses to SMU, it’s irrelevant that we would jump UL because SMU would have the tiebreaker over us no matter what. We’d need a ton of help still.

If Louisville wins out; then we’d need every other team to lose 2 conference games; or end up in a bizarre multi team tiebreaker that is too complicated to even game out atm.

If UL loses to Clemson and beats SMU; SMU loses to UCAL; now we have a real opening.

Aside from needing a Clemson win, we need the winner of the UVA/Duke game to lose one more game VT for victorious UVA or Wake Forest or UNC for a victorious Duke just to trigger a tiebreaker with us three + others. In this scenario, we are still not guaranteed a slot. UVA’s loss to NC State does not count as a in-conference game loss; thus, they only have one conference loss atm.

If Pitt beats GT and GT beats BC, while Miami beats Pitt; Miami is still unlikely to make it. UL beat Pitt, and UL winning out would leapfrog them over Pitt (and us in spite of over tiebreaker win) for the ACC-CCG.

SMU, GT, UVA, Duke, and Pittsburgh all control their own destinies. Miami and Louisville are long-shots with Louisville having better odds than Miami. This is strictly referring to reaching the ACC-CCG.

We need a ridiculous tiebreaker to even have a chance and it’s likely that this dream domino scenario will be extinguished this weekend. Maybe even before Saturday.
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I have a feeling this dream scenario will happen but CMC and Dawson will *** the bed as usual in the last game vs pitt. I hope im wrong
 
Ok, so here's the deal, Josh Pate broke this down really good, IRT Miami and the playoffs.

Rules are a tad different this year,

If say the Fighting Mall Kiosk Jewlers win the ACCCG, they (the CFP) do not have to give them an autobid, as they already have 4 losses.

USF gets in, then probably JMU gets in, at 11 and 12, taking that ACC autobid. Of course, don't be fooled by our 15th place ranking and the CFP saying we would be 11 right now if playoffs start tomorrow, the 11 spot is only because we are the highest ranked ACC team, and they have no clue who's even making the ACCCG, so that means nothing.

But to Pates point with the disaster the ACC has been, he just said... "What is the ACCs best shot of getting someone in" well that's Miami...with the current doomsday scenario, Miamis got some oxygen...and he quoted Mack Rhodes the CFP commissioner saying.. "Outside of Miami, the ACC has no good wins to hang its hat on"....so as Pate said.. "It Up To You Miami "

And he also noted the CFP made a course correction from having us at 18, because it was way to low, and we need the #10 spot for an absolute guaranteed spot in the CFP, which i 💯% agree with.

Tejas L
Choklahomo L
That's 11 and 12 right there, and as it has been said, they want, they need us bigly! They are practically begging Miami and Mario to hold up to their end of the deal here. They are absolutely willing to jump BYU, Vanderbilt, Utah etc to make us right!


LAWD....IF YOU LISTENING!!!!!!
Dave Chappelle Help GIF
 
Jonnyblaze said:
If Notre Dame is 10-2 we should all be nervous. The committee applies the “it was early in the season against a quality opponent” loss selectively, and Notre Dame is one of the teams that would benefit from that reasoning.
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At the moment, I think that spot will be either Notre Dame or Miami. Both will not make it unless teams lose.
 
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Provided we finish 10-2 (and that's a big if dont get me wrong), I am of the belief that we want ND to continue to win. Beating ND is the only reason why we are even in the top 20. The committee doesn't take the head to head into account because the teams are very far apart in their minds/rankings. Once we get closer to the them in the rankings, the head to head h HAS to be a factor. It may take a few weeks for that to happen and I fully think the committee is banking on Miami ****ting the bed and this taking care of itself.
 
We won’t have to worry about ou Texas after this week. Both will lose. That puts them at 3 losses. Vandy also good chance they lose to Tennessee. Need to get the at large teams outta there too.
 
hurricaneman said:
The interesting thing about Notre Dame is 5 games on their schedule are either against us or teams we've both played.

-Miami beat them head to head
-They beat NC State 36-7
-They play Pitt
-They play Syracuse
-They play Stanford

The committee could absolutely justify getting them in over us by using the scores of these games as a comparison. Miami needs to soundly beat NC State for a multitude of reasons, but certainly because ND torched them. It's honestly why Mario should have kept the starters in for the end of the Syracuse game. 38-3 looks way different. Conversely, if Notre Dame struggles with one of these teams for some reason I think that'll be huge.
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I get what you’re saying but don’t you think the committee prioritizing margin of victory against common opponents over a straight up head to head victory is absolutely ridiculous? Who gives a **** if Notre Dame beats Pitt by 7 more points than us if they LOST TO US HEAD TO HEAD.
 
Canes Legacy said:
Provided we finish 10-2 (and that's a big if dont get me wrong), I am of the belief that we want ND to continue to win. Beating ND is the only reason why we are even in the top 20. The committee doesn't take the head to head into account because the teams are very far apart in their minds/rankings. Once we get closer to the them in the rankings, the head to head h HAS to be a factor. It may take a few weeks for that to happen and I fully think the committee is banking on Miami ****ting the bed and this taking care of itself.
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Wrong.

If Pitt beats ND, they will stiill be a Top 25 team. Then, Pitt would be ranked higher. Once we beat Pitt, we get credit for beating BOTH ranked ND and ranked Pitt.

**** Notre Dame. Let them lose. It's all cleaner that way.
 
DTP said:
I get what you’re saying but don’t you think the committee prioritizing margin of victory against common opponents over a straight up head to head victory is absolutely ridiculous? Who gives a **** if Notre Dame beats Pitt by 7 more points than us if they LOST TO US HEAD TO HEAD.
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I think the real goals of the committee, in order of importance, are this:

1) Put together a 12 team playoff that maximizes viewership over the course of the tournament
2) Placate the political players within the college football world as much as possible (e.g. Sankey)
3) Put the teams in that they believe are the top 12 teams in the country

The above rules apply to the 3-4 spots per year that they have control over. If there is a team on the bubble that doesn't satisfy the first two then they will use whatever logic necessary to keep them out, as we've seen over and over.

I watched them put FSU in the 2000 national championship ahead of us. Head to head has never been an absolute tiebreaker in subjective college football. The comedy in that is every single conference, heck every single sport on the planet, uses head to head as a tiebreaker. It's only college football where head to head becomes subjective and it's subjective because of the above rules.
 
hurricaneman said:
I watched them put FSU in the 2000 national championship ahead of us. Head to head has never been an absolute tiebreaker in subjective college football. The comedy in that is every single conference, heck every single sport on the planet, uses head to head as a tiebreaker. It's only college football where head to head becomes subjective and it's subjective because of the above rules.
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This is revisionist history. The humans had us at #2. It was the computers that dropped us down to #3 in the BCS formula. And if we're being honest, 10-1 Washington beat 10-1 Miami, but we don't like to bring that up.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Wrong.

If Pitt beats ND, they will stiill be a Top 25 team. Then, Pitt would be ranked higher. Once we beat Pitt, we get credit for beating BOTH ranked ND and ranked Pitt.

**** Notre Dame. Let them lose. It's all cleaner that way.
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Here's a better argument that I've come around to. Pitt beating Notre Dame and GT would have them ranked very close to what Notre Dame currently is, probably around #15.

Would you rather Notre Dame win, taking up a playoff spot, but giving Miami an early season quality win OR would you rather Miami beat a similarly ranked team the last game of the season while still having Notre Dame ranked and out of the playoff picture?

If Pitt beats Notre Dame then Notre Dame will finish the season somewhere in the 15-20 range. The Pitt game will be vs a ranked opponent AND it's likely Pitt will remain ranked if we beat them. So it's very possible Miami would have wins over ranked USF, Notre Dame, and Pitt.
 
This is revisionist history. The humans had us at #2. It was the computers that dropped us down to #3 in the BCS formula.
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The computers were not sentient. The computers were modeled by people who didn't include head to head as being absolute in whatever formula they decided.
 
hurricaneman said:
The computers were not sentient. The computers were modeled by people who didn't include head to head as being absolute in whatever formula they decided.
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Those models were already in place and have been the same for years. They didn't adjust the formulas to ***** Miami. And head-to-head can never be the ultimate factor, as evidenced by the fact that you don't want to talk about Washington.
 
Need to move up 5 spots and I see 3 teams ahead of us guaranteed to lose at least 1 game - Texas is dropping to Georgia and/or A&M, Oklahoma isn't going to Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama, and Vanderbilt isn't beating Tennessee. Still need some help.

Help would be - jump Utah organically (resume shouldn't even be a question - no idea why they're higher anyway), BYU could lose to Cincinnati, would like to see Pitt beat ND, which would also help if we beat them on 11/29, adds another top 15 type win to the resume. Someone is losing the Big12 championship - committee could opt to "punish" the loser and let them fall out.

Oregon plays USC and at Washington. They look vulnerable. If USC beats Oregon, do they jump us and Oregon remain ahead of us? Very possible. All the more reason why we need Pitt to beat ND and that to be a top 15 type team when we play them. They've already taken all of the stock away from our week 1 W over ND. USC has a bad loss to Illinois and a loss to ND, who we beat. Hopefully transient property applies. USC losing to Iowa and beating Oregon could solve all of our problems.

Or the ACC auto bid would come down to:

1. Win out
2. Duke beat Virginia and then lose to WF or Virginia beat Duke and then lose to VT
3. Clemson beat Louisville
4. Louisville beat SMU
5. Pitt beat GT

Nothing too crazy but a ton of moving pieces and lots that has to go right. Winning out for us is probably the most unlikely thing that can happen of all of the scenarios.
 
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