ANALYTICS & STATE OF THE PROGRAM : PART 1 (TALENT & BLUE CHIP AVERAGE)

[Go Canes!!]

OR

 

[gabednconfused]

As an engineer, I get off to analysis like this; that being said, I would have removed BCAvg lowest (8.25) as an outlier as it represents ALMOST 30% less blue-chippers on the roster than the nearest Natty winner (11.25). This raises the minimum criteria significantly, doesn't it?

That means you have (11.25) 9.56 blue chippers on the roster (round to 10), vs 7.22 blue chippers (call that 7)... thats a missing 3 elite players on either line of scrimmage.

Summary; if you look at your data a tad more impartially, Miami still has a way to go. We need to sign 28% more blue chippers per yr than we do currently.

As far as QB goes, I am less inclined to use the position as a measuring point, ONLY because of the Jacob Cokers and AJ whatever-the****s at Bama have shown being a game manager, if your chip ratio is high enough, still gets the job done.

To close, either Kosi or Tate can probably get us far this season, but the team is still not there yet on the talent base. The best thing to do now as a team would be to use data to help out scheme and gameplan for their opponents. Manny, hit me up, I do consulting on the side

 

[bshaw28]

This is fallacious.

Of course QB play is of primary importance. But to discount the importance of the OL is atrociously bad logic.

Especially using Clemson’s example. Just because their OLinemen didn’t project well to the next level, NFL, doesn’t mean they weren’t talented, effective, productive and cohesive COLLEGE OLinemen.

Stunningly bad conclusion about the offensive line.

I'm not discounting OL play at all. Of course it's important. Any position group is. It's just how much the OL makes a difference is overstated.

To win a NC you need at least 2 ELITE skill position players on offense. You can have just ok OL talent if you have elite playmakers - like Clemson has.

 

[Hemsleysalmons]

Op a new cis nerd who seems to be someone that has absolutely nothing going for him except analytics. You can bet he does the same thing with other sports related issues. **** of a way to run a life.

 

[duke4heisman]

Op a new cis nerd who seems to be someone that has absolutely nothing going for him except analytics. You can bet he does the same thing with other sports related issues. **** of a way to run a life.

Our head coach is an analytics nerd. I guess he has no life.

 

[CanesLifer2]

In all seriousness; that is very interesting, great job. I don’t care who wins the QB job, as long as they give us the best chance to win.

 

[NicKane]

It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. Let's take an in-depth, analytical look at The U.

TALENT

​

"Talent" is defined in the dictionary as natural aptitude or skill. When you think of Miami, you should think of speed and skill. Playmakers. How have the Canes stacked up against the other competition?

Bud Elliott wrote an article on Blue Chip Ratio. Blue Chip Ratio is the percentage of your roster that has Blue Chip (4 & 5 Star) players. If your Blue Chip Ratio is 50% or better, you are considered a national title contender. 13 teams reached that plateau last season. Spoiler: Miami wasn't one of them. To me, this was a good starting point. But it didn't get to the of the equation. It was still too vague. So, I began to research & put in a lot of work & hours to dissect & analyze the root value of everything.

So here we go...

I created some new terms and will explain each of them as we come across them. The Blue Chip Ratio doesn't include Transfers. Talent is Talent. You cannot ignore the Transfer Portal. I included Transfers in my data. My source for the information is 24/7 Sports since they average all the other recruiting services as well.

Instead of Blue Chip Ratio, we will use Blue Chip Average (BCAvg). BCAvg is the Average of the School's Blue Chip Prospects Enrolled/Signed per Signing Year. This is the BCAvg for the upcoming 2019 College Football Season.

SCHOOL​	BCAvg​	CONFERENCE / DIVISION​
1. Alabama​	20.75​	SEC - West
2. Georgia​	18.75​	SEC - East
3. Ohio St.​	18.50​	BIG 10 - East
4. Texas​	15.25​	BIG 12
5. LSU​	14.75​	SEC - West
6. Michigan​	14.50​	BIG 10 - East
7. Oklahoma​	14.25​	BIG 12
8. USC​	13.50​	PAC 12 - South
9. Auburn​	13.25​	SEC - West
10. Florida St.​	13.00​	ACC - Atlantic
10. Penn St.​	13.00​	BIG 10 - East
12. Florida​	12.50​	SEC - East
12. Notre Dame​	12.50​	INDEPENDENT
14. Clemson​	12.00​	ACC - Atlantic
15. MIAMI​	11.50​	ACC - Coastal
16. Texas A&M​	10.75​	SEC - West
17. Washington​	10.25​	PAC 12 - North
18. Tennessee​	9.00​	SEC - East
19. Oregon​	8.75​	PAC 12 - North
20. Stanford​	8.00​	PAC 12 - North
21. Ole Miss​	7.25​	SEC - West
21. UCLA​	7.25​	PAC 12 - South
23. South Carolina​	6.25​	SEC - East
24. Nebraska​	6.00​	BIG 10 - West
25. Arkansas​	5.75	SEC - West

So what do these ratings translate to? Is that good Miami is 11.50? Last year, Clemson was an 11.75 when they defeated Alabama (19.00). The lowest BCAvg National Champion was the 2010 Auburn Tigers at 8.25. The lowest BCAvg to make the College Football Playoff was the 2015 Michigan State Spartans at 4.25, which ranked 28th that season. The farthest back we can track the data is the 2005 season which includes the 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 Recruiting Classes, respectfully. The 2001 Class is sketchy from a star rating perspective & mostly just names the recruits who signed & enrolled only. So it's unusable.

How have the past recruiting classes done? If the bare minimum to win the National Championship is an 8.25, how many would qualify? What was their BCAvg & Ranking?

View attachment 92456​

BOLD - Teams above 8.25 BCAvg.

Let's return our focus to the upcoming 2019 Season. How does the rest of the conference stack up to the Canes?

View attachment 92457​

Talent wise, Miami has the clear advantage in the Coastal Division. In fact, there hasn't been a year where they didn't. Under Richt, Golden, Shannon & Coker, Miami has been the CLEAR FAVORITE from a talent perspective. But we will get into coaching in our PART 2: COACHING segment. The 2019 Canes will be the best Roster to hit the field since 2010. Almost a full decade. So how good are Miami's chances to win it all? Is there even a chance? Let's look back at the top 25 for the upcoming 2019 season.

School​	BCAvg.​	Conference / Division​
Alabama	20.75	SEC - West
Georgia	18.75	SEC - East
Ohio St.	18.50	BIG 10 - East
Texas	15.25	BIG 12
LSU	14.75	SEC - West
Michigan	14.50	BIG 10 - East
Oklahoma	14.25	BIG 12
USC	13.50	PAC 12 - South
Auburn	13.25	SEC - West
Florida St.	13.00	ACC - Atlantic
Penn St.	13.00	BIG 10 - East
Florida	12.50	SEC - East
Notre Dame	12.50	INDEPENDENT
Clemson	12.00	ACC - Atlantic
MIAMI	11.50	ACC - Coastal
Texas A&M	10.75	SEC - West
Washington	10.25	PAC 12 - North
Tennessee	9.00	SEC - East
Oregon	8.75	PAC 12 - North
Stanford	8.00	PAC 12 - North
Ole Miss	7.25	SEC - West
UCLA	7.25	PAC 12 - South
South Carolina	6.25	SEC - East
Nebraska	6.00	BIG 10 - West
Arkansas	5.75	SEC - West

Let's strictly stick to the data that has been provided for us. So we know the from earlier that the 2010 Auburn Tigers were the lowest BCAvg (8.25) team to win it all. So any school BELOW 8.25 we can eliminate. Goodbye Stanford, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Carolina, Nebraska & Arkansas. So now we have 19 Schools Eligible. Let's look at the previous schools from 2005 - 2018 to win the National Title.

View attachment 92458​

Hmmm...what's the most important position on the football field? QUARTERBACK. Who were the starting quarterbacks for the majority of the season for National Championship Teams and what were they rated coming out of High School?

View attachment 92460​

This is probably the time some of you might be pointing out that Tua Tagovailoa came in the national championship game for Jalen Hurts in 2017 to win it. Or that Cardale Jones was the starting QB for Ohio St.'s 2014 National Championship team. You are right on both statements. But neither QB played more snaps than the original starter. That's where the data takes us, so that's where we will follow. So the LOWEST rated PRO STYLE QB is #14 (Jacob Coker) & the LOWEST rated DUAL THREAT QB is #4 Jalen Hurts. How do the three QBs battling for the starting job match up with these ratings?

QUARTERBACK	STYLE	H.S. GRADUATION	OVERALL QB RANKING
Tate Martell​	DUAL #2​	2017​	#5​
N'Kosi Perry​	DUAL #7​	2017​	#15​
Jarren Williams​	PRO #5​	2018​	#18​

Only 2 Quarterbacks fit the criteria. Tate Martell & Jarren Williams. Sorry N'Kosi. How about the rest of the remaining 19 schools? Let's take a look.

View attachment 92462​

Now we can eliminate LSU, Florida St., Notre Dame & Oregon. Oregon? Justin Herbert? Potential #1 QB in the 2020 NFL Draft Justin Herbert??!! Yup. Put your emotions to the side & we are following the data. So now we are down to 15 College Programs capable of winning the 2019 National Championship. Can we eliminate more teams from this list? Let's look at the previous 14 National Champions Quarterback List again.

View attachment 92463​

Hmmm...wait...on the National Champion QB List, ALL the LOWEST RATED QBS played for Nick Saban.

YEAR	SCHOOL	QUARTERBACK	STYLE	H.S GRADUATION	OVERALL QB RANKING
2015​	Alabama​	Jacob Coker​	PRO #14​	2011​	#32​
2009​	Alabama​	Greg McElroy​	PRO #13​	2006​	#18​
2007​	LSU​	Matt Flynn​	PRO #12​	2003​	#17​
2012​	Alabama​	A.J. McCarron​	PRO #7​	2009​	#9​
2011​	Alabama​	A.J. McCarron​	PRO #7​	2009​	#9​
2017​	Alabama​	Jalen Hurts​	DUAL #4​	2016​	#13​

Nick Saban has 6 out of the 14 National Championships. Maybe it's not so much the QB for Saban, but his system. Then that leads to our next question. How good were the other QB's that BEAT Saban? If they didn't play Saban, how good were those other 8 Quarterbacks. Let's see.

YEAR	SCHOOL	QUARTERBACK	STYLE	H.S. GRADUATION	OVERALL QB RANKING
2018​	Clemson​	Trevor Lawrence​	PRO #1​	2018​	#1​
2016​	Clemson​	Deshaun Watson​	DUAL #1​	2014​	#2​
2014​	Ohio St.​	J.T. Barrett​	DUAL #2​	2013​	#10​
2013​	Florida St.​	Jameis Winston​	DUAL #1​	2012​	#1​
2010​	Auburn​	Cam Newton​	DUAL #2​	2007​	#5​
2008​	Florida​	Tim Tebow​	DUAL #1​	2006​	#3​
2006​	Florida​	Chris Leak​	PRO #2​	2003​	#2​
2005​	Texas​	Vince Young​	DUAL #1​	2002​	#1​

BINGO. All these 8 QBs have one thing in common. They were ELITE. They were each respectfully either the #1 or #2 PRO / DUAL in their class. They can either win with their arm or with their athleticism, but regardless these 8 are PROGRAM CHANGERS. Let's trim our list one last time.

SCHOOL	QUARTERBACK	STYLE	H.S. GRADUATION	OVERALL QB RANKING
Alabama​	Tua Tagovailoa​	DUAL #1​	2017​	#3​
Georgia​	Jake Fromm​	PRO #3​	2017​	#4​
Ohio St.​	Justin Fields​	DUAL #1​	2018​	#2​
Texas​	Sam Ehlinger​	DUAL #4​	2017​	#8​
Michigan​	Shea Patterson​	PRO #1​	2016​	#1​
Oklahoma​	Jalen Hurts​	DUAL #4​	2016​	#13​
USC​	J.T. Daniels​	PRO #2​	2018​	#3​
Auburn​	Bo Nix​	DUAL #1​	2019​	#1​
Florida​	Feleipe Franks​	PRO #5​	2016​	#5​
Clemson​	Trevor Lawrence​	PRO #1​	2018​	#1​
MIAMI​	TATE MARTELL JARREN WILLIAMS​	DUAL #2 PRO #5​	2017 2018​	#5 #18​
Texas A&M​	Kellen Mond​	DUAL #3​	2017​	#7​
Washington​	Jacob Eason​	PRO #2​	2016​	#2​
Tennessee​	Jarrett Guarantano​	DUAL #1​	2016​	#7​

Goodbye Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas A&M & Jarren Williams. WE have a QB that fits this criteria. Here's the full and FINAL list of teams and their quarterbacks who match this data.

SCHOOL	QUARTERBACK	STYLE	H.S. GRADUATION	OVERALL QB RANKING
Alabama​	Tua Tagovailoa​	DUAL #1​	2017​	#3​
Ohio St.​	Justin Fields​	DUAL #1​	2018​	#2​
Michigan​	Shea Patterson​	PRO #1​	2016​	#1​
USC​	J.T. Daniels​	PRO #2​	2018​	#3​
Auburn​	Bo Nix​	DUAL #1​	2019​	#1​
Clemson​	Trevor Lawrence​	PRO #1​	2018​	#1​
MIAMI​	TATE MARTELL​	DUEL #2​	2017​	#5​
Washington​	Jacob Eason​	PRO #2​	2016​	#2​
Tennessee​	Jarrett Guarantano​	DUAL #1​	2016​	#7​

So there are 9 teams that fit the 14 year data. This doesn't mean that more than one of these teams will make the College Football Playoff. As I mentioned earlier on this post, the 2015 Michigan St. Spartans made the playoffs with a 4.25 BCAvg. They MADE the playoffs, but DIDN'T WIN. This data is for potential National Champions. If a team breaks this trend and sets a new one, then we will follow it. But until then, there's a 99.9% chance that one of these 9 schools will be holding up the trophy if these QBs play the majority of the snaps for their respective programs.

View attachment 92367​

So YES.........MIAMI HAS A CHANCE.



In PART 2: COACHING...We will look into:

• What separates a Great Coach, a Good Coach & a Bad Coach
• "With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility."
• ENWP (Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) & other NEW Analytical terms to find every Head Coach's TRUE VALUE.
• Dissecting the 2019 Miami Hurricane Schedule and their opponents
• The Past: Richt, Golden, Shannon & Coker

Dang man, that was a great post. I commend you on the organization and detail put into it. Definitely a lot of work!

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I'm not discounting OL play at all. Of course it's important. Any position group is. It's just how much the OL makes a difference is overstated.

To win a NC you need at least 2 ELITE skill position players on offense. You can have just ok OL talent if you have elite playmakers - like Clemson has.

Disagree.

You need significantly better than average OLinemen.

How can you say that their lineman didn’t perform at an elite level, or weren’t elite college players.

 

[CaneDog66]

Great post mate, don’t let the Debbie downers get to you. When is the development post coming so we can get further analysis on the table?

 

[bshaw28]

A glaring result leaps off the page for all the graduated QBs (regardless of HS ***** or collegiate accomplishment):

None of them have done anything of consequence at NFL level. None.

That would indicate these athletes' performance are more products of the systems (with help from surrounding teammates) than "elite" individual play.

A few of the NC winning QB's have had at least some NFL success:

Vince Young - 2 Pro Bowls (Hard as that is to believe)
Deshaun Watson - 1 Pro Bowl
Jameis Winston - 1 Pro Bowl
Cam Newton - 3 Pro Bowls & 1 NFL MVP

The weaker QB's have had 2 Elite playmakers on their teams:

Greg McElroy = Mark Ingram & Julio Jones
AJ McCarron = Eddie Lacy & Amari Cooper
JT Barrett = Ezekiel Elliot & Michael Thomas
Jacob Coker = Derrick Henry & Calvin Ridley
Jalen Hurts = Josh Jacobs & Calvin Ridley

Between QB/RB/WR - NC winning teams almost always have at least 2 big time NFL talents at the skill positions

 

[imyrhuckleberry]

Op a new cis nerd who seems to be someone that has absolutely nothing going for him except analytics. You can bet he does the same thing with other sports related issues. **** of a way to run a life.

Grenade . . .

 

[pacusmc]

I see where this is going.

Martell fans are about to go nuts.

Not so fast.

Look at that list of National Champions. Except for Winston ( whose skill set was more pocket passer than dt) all the elite dual threat quarterbacks played in pure spread shotgun systems.

THAT IS NOT WHAT WE RUN!

Does Enos have the chops to implement a system akin to the spread that these great dual threat quarterbacks used? Because our offense looks way more like Bama than Osu, Auburn, or Clemson.

Look at defensive s&p for all Alabama’s national championships since 2009

2009 6.5 rank 1
2011 6.4 rank 1
2012 10.7 rank 3
2015 9.1 rank 1
2017 5.6 rank 1

Only two teams with defensive s&p outside the top 10 have won the title since 2005, Auburn(44) and Ohio State(24). Cam Newton is the DEFINITION of a transcendent player.

Miami’s defensive s&p last year was 14 at 15.8. THIS WILL NOT CUT IT and will be the real reason we can’t compete for the Natty.

Transcendent qb play is what is necessary to beat NICK SABAN. EVERY title game since 2010 has had to go through him, whether Iron Bowl, playoff, or title game.

Get the defensive s&p into the top 3 and theoretically, we can win it with any of our qbs as long as we don’t have to play a strong Bama team.

Personally, I think Saban’s ego is consuming them and the title game debacle is just the beginning of their slide. I know it sounds crazy, but I don’t think they make the playoffs.

The nose tackle play is CRITICAL for us to have a shot. We have all the other elements of a championship defense except ridiculous depth. Get great play at the 1 tech, we can take anybody on if we get some luck in the injury department.

We may be better off trying to imitate Bama than the spread teams because Martell has not been amazing in the preseason the way many of those other quarterbacks were before their championship campaigns.

Edit: Every title since 2009 has gone through Nick Saban.

I keep telling people about Watson and Clemson. I told people to look at his stats when he played there. That was an above average team but not an elite team. Same with auburn. Look at Clemson before Lawrence became the starter. That was a more talented team than the one that Watson had on all aspects except QB and got owned that last game they played.
I’m also sick and tired of people calling saban the goat when he gets everyone. His second stringers can make a playoff run. That’s how deep they are.
And when bama doesn’t get the transcendent qb he has more than enough talent to make up for it.
He may not win it some years but he’ll get as close as possible. But it ain’t cause he’s an x o guru or a nice guy.

 

[bshaw28]

Disagree.

You need significantly better than average OLinemen.

How can you say that their lineman didn’t perform at an elite level, or weren’t elite college players.

IMO - you can't call the Clemson OL "elite" when they haven't had a single player drafted in the last 5 drafts. Their OL seems better than it actually is because it's blocking for elite players.

The Clemson OL looked better blocking for Deshaun Watson instead of Cole Stoudt in 2014
The Clemson OL looked better blocking for Trevor Lawrence instead of Kelly Bryant in 2018

The Miami OL would instantly look A LOT better this year if it were blocking for Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Justyn Ross, and Tee Higgins.

 

[Moonman]

Stealth Tate Martell thread.

 

[954Cane'21]

As an engineer, I get off to analysis like this; that being said, I would have removed BCAvg lowest (8.25) as an outlier as it represents ALMOST 30% less blue-chippers on the roster than the nearest Natty winner (11.25). This raises the minimum criteria significantly, doesn't it?

That means you have (11.25) 9.56 blue chippers on the roster (round to 10), vs 7.22 blue chippers (call that 7)... thats a missing 3 elite players on either line of scrimmage.

Summary; if you look at your data a tad more impartially, Miami still has a way to go. We need to sign 28% more blue chippers per yr than we do currently.

As far as QB goes, I am less inclined to use the position as a measuring point, ONLY because of the Jacob Cokers and AJ whatever-the****s at Bama have shown being a game manager, if your chip ratio is high enough, still gets the job done.

To close, either Kosi or Tate can probably get us far this season, but the team is still not there yet on the talent base. The best thing to do now as a team would be to use data to help out scheme and gameplan for their opponents. Manny, hit me up, I do consulting on the side

I'm curious to know what kind of engineer you are.....I'm actually a Data analytics major at UM myself and was tossing around ideas on a ML algorithm with my compsci friend (who's also a die hard football fan like me) that would use a series of underlying webscrapers to pull 100m times, combine reports, weightlifting meet results, and game stats to identify talent in rural areas of the country. Our kids down here have the fortune of being able to be seen by a scout at any given HS game, but statistically speaking you know there's gotta be hundreds of all Americans the system misses because of a lack of info and limits on the amount of ground scouts can cover in a given year. I'm picturing the
Walter Jones' and Ray lewis' of the world who might of have been missed simply because they live in podunk, Arkansas.

 

[TruCane81]

I keep telling people about Watson and Clemson. I told people to look at his stats when he played there. That was an above average team but not an elite team. Same with auburn. Look at Clemson before Lawrence became the starter. That was a more talented team than the one that Watson had on all aspects except QB and got owned that last game they played.
I’m also sick and tired of people calling saban the goat when he gets everyone. His second stringers can make a playoff run. That’s how deep they are.
And when bama doesn’t get the transcendent qb he has more than enough talent to make up for it.
He may not win it some years but he’ll get as close as possible. But it ain’t cause he’s an x o guru or a nice guy.

I personally see Saban as the goat because of the fact he has been able to hold that talent together.

To lead elite players and make them play hard is not as easy as many think.

His ability to overcome complacency is second to none.

However, I have a feeling he is wearing down and his style is wearing on the program. Could be completely wrong, and he tears it up for a sixth championship. I think Clemson was Bama’s iceberg and they will sink slowly to Saban’s retirement.

 

[DTP]

OP did a great job. Very interesting post with tons of data to back up analytics.

So, what does it tell us about Miami?

Miami is far more talented than anybody in the coastal (everyone knows this)
Miami's only competition in terms of overall talent in the conference is Clemson and FSU (shocking)
Miami's overall talent is very good but not quite elite (yup)
Miami's on field success has not matched it's talent (preaching to the choir)
For Miami to win a title this season, it would require transcendent QB play (most likely)
Miami may have one or more QBs capable of providing that play (hopefully)

While I find all the numbers fascinating, there's really no ground breaking information from them that the average fan doesn't already know regarding Miami.

 

[rsa coral gables]

Op a new cis nerd who seems to be someone that has absolutely nothing going for him except analytics. You can bet he does the same thing with other sports related issues. **** of a way to run a life.

What a ****ty comment. You are probably one of the guys that argues to oblivion re uniforms or cleats or unimportant **** like that and cannot understand appreciate or delight in the OP's data and conclusions.

To then OP sensational work. Thank you. MOAR of this. Look forward to Part 2 and 3.

 

[TruCane81]

I'm curious to know what kind of engineer you are.....I'm actually a Data analytics major at UM myself and was tossing around ideas on a ML algorithm with my compsci friend (who's also a die hard football fan like me) that would use a series of underlying webscrapers to pull 100m times, combine reports, weightlifting meet results, and game stats to identify talent in rural areas of the country. Our kids down here have the fortune of being able to be seen by a scout at any given HS game, but statistically speaking you know there's gotta be hundreds of all Americans the system misses because of a lack of info and limits on the amount of ground scouts can cover in a given year. I'm picturing the
Walter Jones' and Ray lewis' of the world who might of have missed simply because they live in podunk, Arkansas.

Great idea. The cultural shock of Miami turns off many of the really country kids to the program.

I really liked Jeff Stoutland’s approach of supplementing the line with kids from northern (east coast/ Midwest) to go along with the Florida recruits.

The pipeline we are opening in Ny/Nj is just the beginning. Miami as a program and city has a lot of appeal in these areas and I don’t think we have worked them as much as we could, especially for linemen.

With a core of Florida players, infusing a healthy mix of guys from different cultures has always been successful for us.

I think this would be a key component in building deep rosters that win now so we can be more attractive to the elite recruits.

 

[canecrazy23]

I just don't see it with FSU. I look at their roster and see a ton of overrated kids.