It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need
THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL
: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. Let's take an in-depth, analytical look at The U.
TALENT
"
Talent" is defined in the dictionary as
natural aptitude or skill. When you think of Miami, you should think of speed and skill. Playmakers. How have the Canes stacked up against the other competition?
Bud Elliott wrote an article on
Blue Chip Ratio. Blue Chip Ratio is the percentage of your roster that has Blue Chip (4 & 5 Star) players. If your Blue Chip Ratio is 50% or better, you are considered a national title contender. 13 teams reached that plateau last season. Spoiler: Miami wasn't one of them. To me, this was a good starting point. But it didn't get to the of the equation. It was still too vague. So, I began to research & put in a lot of work & hours to dissect & analyze the root value of everything.
So here we go...
I created some new terms and will explain each of them as we come across them. The Blue Chip Ratio doesn't include Transfers. Talent is Talent. You cannot ignore the Transfer Portal. I included Transfers in my data. My source for the information is 24/7 Sports since they average all the other recruiting services as well.
Instead of
Blue Chip Ratio, we will use
Blue Chip Average (BCAvg).
BCAvg is the Average of the School's Blue Chip Prospects Enrolled/Signed per Signing Year. This is the BCAvg for the upcoming 2019 College Football Season.
SCHOOL | BCAvg | CONFERENCE / DIVISION |
|---|
1. Alabama | 20.75 | SEC - West |
2. Georgia | 18.75 | SEC - East |
3. Ohio St. | 18.50 | BIG 10 - East |
4. Texas | 15.25 | BIG 12 |
5. LSU | 14.75 | SEC - West |
6. Michigan | 14.50 | BIG 10 - East |
7. Oklahoma | 14.25 | BIG 12 |
8. USC | 13.50 | PAC 12 - South |
9. Auburn | 13.25 | SEC - West |
10. Florida St. | 13.00 | ACC - Atlantic |
10. Penn St. | 13.00 | BIG 10 - East |
12. Florida | 12.50 | SEC - East |
12. Notre Dame | 12.50 | INDEPENDENT |
14. Clemson | 12.00 | ACC - Atlantic |
15. MIAMI | 11.50 | ACC - Coastal |
16. Texas A&M | 10.75 | SEC - West |
17. Washington | 10.25 | PAC 12 - North |
18. Tennessee | 9.00 | SEC - East |
19. Oregon | 8.75 | PAC 12 - North |
20. Stanford | 8.00 | PAC 12 - North |
21. Ole Miss | 7.25 | SEC - West |
21. UCLA | 7.25 | PAC 12 - South |
23. South Carolina | 6.25 | SEC - East |
24. Nebraska | 6.00 | BIG 10 - West |
25. Arkansas | 5.75 | SEC - West |
So what do these ratings translate to? Is that good Miami is 11.50? Last year, Clemson was an 11.75 when they defeated Alabama (19.00). The lowest BCAvg National Champion was the 2010 Auburn Tigers at 8.25. The lowest BCAvg to make the College Football Playoff was the 2015 Michigan State Spartans at 4.25, which ranked 28th that season. The farthest back we can track the data is the 2005 season which includes the 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 Recruiting Classes, respectfully. The 2001 Class is sketchy from a star rating perspective & mostly just names the recruits who signed & enrolled only. So it's unusable.
How have the past recruiting classes done? If the bare minimum to win the National Championship is an 8.25, how many would qualify? What was their
BCAvg & Ranking?
BOLD - Teams above
8.25 BCAvg.
Let's return our focus to the upcoming 2019 Season. How does the rest of the conference stack up to the Canes?
Talent wise, Miami has the clear advantage in the Coastal Division. In fact, there hasn't been a year where they didn't. Under Richt, Golden, Shannon & Coker, Miami has been the CLEAR FAVORITE from a talent perspective. But we will get into coaching in our
PART 2: COACHING segment. The 2019 Canes will be the best Roster to hit the field since 2010. Almost a full decade. So how good are Miami's chances to win it all? Is there even a chance? Let's look back at the top 25 for the upcoming 2019 season.
School | BCAvg. | Conference / Division |
|---|
| Alabama | 20.75 | SEC - West |
| Georgia | 18.75 | SEC - East |
| Ohio St. | 18.50 | BIG 10 - East |
| Texas | 15.25 | BIG 12 |
| LSU | 14.75 | SEC - West |
| Michigan | 14.50 | BIG 10 - East |
| Oklahoma | 14.25 | BIG 12 |
| USC | 13.50 | PAC 12 - South |
| Auburn | 13.25 | SEC - West |
| Florida St. | 13.00 | ACC - Atlantic |
| Penn St. | 13.00 | BIG 10 - East |
| Florida | 12.50 | SEC - East |
| Notre Dame | 12.50 | INDEPENDENT |
| Clemson | 12.00 | ACC - Atlantic |
| MIAMI | 11.50 | ACC - Coastal |
| Texas A&M | 10.75 | SEC - West |
| Washington | 10.25 | PAC 12 - North |
| Tennessee | 9.00 | SEC - East |
| Oregon | 8.75 | PAC 12 - North |
| Stanford | 8.00 | PAC 12 - North |
| Ole Miss | 7.25 | SEC - West |
| UCLA | 7.25 | PAC 12 - South |
| South Carolina | 6.25 | SEC - East |
| Nebraska | 6.00 | BIG 10 - West |
| Arkansas | 5.75 | SEC - West |
Let's strictly stick to the data that has been provided for us. So we know the from earlier that the 2010 Auburn Tigers were the lowest BCAvg (8.25) team to win it all. So any school BELOW 8.25 we can eliminate. Goodbye Stanford, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Carolina, Nebraska & Arkansas. So now we have 19 Schools Eligible. Let's look at the previous schools from 2005 - 2018 to win the National Title.
Hmmm...what's the most important position on the football field? QUARTERBACK. Who were the starting quarterbacks for the majority of the season for National Championship Teams and what were they rated coming out of High School?
This is probably the time some of you might be pointing out that Tua Tagovailoa came in the national championship game for Jalen Hurts in 2017 to win it. Or that Cardale Jones was the starting QB for Ohio St.'s 2014 National Championship team. You are right on both statements. But neither QB played more snaps than the original starter. That's where the data takes us, so that's where we will follow. So the
LOWEST rated PRO STYLE QB is #14 (Jacob Coker) & the
LOWEST rated DUAL THREAT QB is #4 Jalen Hurts. How do the three QBs battling for the starting job match up with these ratings?
| QUARTERBACK | STYLE | H.S. GRADUATION | OVERALL QB RANKING |
|---|
Tate Martell | DUAL #2 | 2017 | #5 |
N'Kosi Perry | DUAL #7 | 2017 | #15 |
Jarren Williams | PRO #5 | 2018 | #18 |
Only 2 Quarterbacks fit the criteria. Tate Martell & Jarren Williams. Sorry N'Kosi. How about the rest of the remaining 19 schools? Let's take a look.
Now we can eliminate LSU, Florida St., Notre Dame & Oregon. Oregon? Justin Herbert? Potential #1 QB in the 2020 NFL Draft Justin Herbert??!! Yup. Put your emotions to the side & we are following the data. So now we are down to 15 College Programs capable of winning the 2019 National Championship. Can we eliminate more teams from this list? Let's look at the previous 14 National Champions Quarterback List again.
Hmmm...wait...on the National Champion QB List, ALL the
LOWEST RATED QBS played for
Nick Saban.
| YEAR | SCHOOL | QUARTERBACK | STYLE | H.S GRADUATION | OVERALL QB RANKING |
|---|
2015 | Alabama | Jacob Coker | PRO #14 | 2011 | #32 |
2009 | Alabama | Greg McElroy | PRO #13 | 2006 | #18 |
2007 | LSU | Matt Flynn | PRO #12 | 2003 | #17 |
2012 | Alabama | A.J. McCarron | PRO #7 | 2009 | #9 |
2011 | Alabama | A.J. McCarron | PRO #7 | 2009 | #9 |
2017 | Alabama | Jalen Hurts | DUAL #4 | 2016 | #13 |
Nick Saban has 6 out of the 14 National Championships. Maybe it's not so much the QB for Saban, but his system. Then that leads to our next question. How good were the other QB's that BEAT Saban? If they didn't play Saban, how good were those other 8 Quarterbacks. Let's see.
| YEAR | SCHOOL | QUARTERBACK | STYLE | H.S. GRADUATION | OVERALL QB RANKING |
|---|
2018 | Clemson | Trevor Lawrence | PRO #1 | 2018 | #1 |
2016 | Clemson | Deshaun Watson | DUAL #1 | 2014 | #2 |
2014 | Ohio St. | J.T. Barrett | DUAL #2 | 2013 | #10 |
2013 | Florida St. | Jameis Winston | DUAL #1 | 2012 | #1 |
2010 | Auburn | Cam Newton | DUAL #2 | 2007 | #5 |
2008 | Florida | Tim Tebow | DUAL #1 | 2006 | #3 |
2006 | Florida | Chris Leak | PRO #2 | 2003 | #2 |
2005 | Texas | Vince Young | DUAL #1 | 2002 | #1 |
BINGO. All these 8 QBs have one thing in common. They were ELITE. They were each respectfully either the #1 or #2 PRO / DUAL in their class. They can either win with their arm or with their athleticism, but regardless these 8 are PROGRAM CHANGERS. Let's trim our list one last time.
| SCHOOL | QUARTERBACK | STYLE | H.S. GRADUATION | OVERALL QB RANKING |
|---|
Alabama | Tua Tagovailoa | DUAL #1 | 2017 | #3 |
Georgia | Jake Fromm | PRO #3 | 2017 | #4 |
Ohio St. | Justin Fields | DUAL #1 | 2018 | #2 |
Texas | Sam Ehlinger | DUAL #4 | 2017 | #8 |
Michigan | Shea Patterson | PRO #1 | 2016 | #1 |
Oklahoma | Jalen Hurts | DUAL #4 | 2016 | #13 |
USC | J.T. Daniels | PRO #2 | 2018 | #3 |
Auburn | Bo Nix | DUAL #1 | 2019 | #1 |
Florida | Feleipe Franks | PRO #5 | 2016 | #5 |
Clemson | Trevor Lawrence | PRO #1 | 2018 | #1 |
MIAMI | TATE MARTELL
JARREN WILLIAMS | DUAL #2
PRO #5 | 2017
2018 | #5
#18 |
Texas A&M | Kellen Mond | DUAL #3 | 2017 | #7 |
Washington | Jacob Eason | PRO #2 | 2016 | #2 |
Tennessee | Jarrett Guarantano | DUAL #1 | 2016 | #7 |
Goodbye Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas A&M & Jarren Williams. WE have a QB that fits this criteria. Here's the full and FINAL list of teams and their quarterbacks who match this data.
| SCHOOL | QUARTERBACK | STYLE | H.S. GRADUATION | OVERALL QB RANKING |
|---|
Alabama | Tua Tagovailoa | DUAL #1 | 2017 | #3 |
Ohio St. | Justin Fields | DUAL #1 | 2018 | #2 |
Michigan | Shea Patterson | PRO #1 | 2016 | #1 |
USC | J.T. Daniels | PRO #2 | 2018 | #3 |
Auburn | Bo Nix | DUAL #1 | 2019 | #1 |
Clemson | Trevor Lawrence | PRO #1 | 2018 | #1 |
MIAMI | TATE MARTELL | DUEL #2 | 2017 | #5 |
Washington | Jacob Eason | PRO #2 | 2016 | #2 |
Tennessee | Jarrett Guarantano | DUAL #1 | 2016 | #7 |
So there are 9 teams that fit the 14 year data. This doesn't mean that more than one of these teams will make the College Football Playoff. As I mentioned earlier on this post, the 2015 Michigan St. Spartans made the playoffs with a 4.25 BCAvg. They MADE the playoffs, but DIDN'T WIN. This data is for potential National Champions. If a team breaks this trend and sets a new one, then we will follow it. But until then, there's a 99.9% chance that one of these 9 schools will be holding up the trophy if these QBs play the majority of the snaps for their respective programs.
So YES.........MIAMI HAS A CHANCE.
In
PART 2: COACHING...We will look into:
- What separates a Great Coach, a Good Coach & a Bad Coach
- "With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility."
- ENWP (Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) & other NEW Analytical terms to find every Head Coach's TRUE VALUE.
- Dissecting the 2019 Miami Hurricane Schedule and their opponents
- The Past: Richt, Golden, Shannon & Coker
