Portal is definitely a factor, but I'd say it's probably a combination of multiple things:
- Like you said, they aren't able to hold guys hostage, so transfer portal allows for more PT elsewhere.
- They're not the only ones able to pay top highschool talent anymore.
- They're also not the biggest purse anymore (the whole point of this thread). A car and $250k no longer moves the needle.
- Expanded playoff (with talks of doing more) means more teams have a chance to get in, so you don't have to flock to a handful of teams to get a playoff opportunity.
- Wider media coverage means you'll still get noticed by scouts; you don't have to play for blueblood programs anymore to get noticed. (Vikings just put an undrafted dude from Morgan State on their 53-man roster).
They'll continue to have top classes, but not having those extra 3-4 bluechips a year adds up over a 4-year period. Not as much depth>less competition>player complacency (which we're reading smoke on in Bama)>worse results. Add in a coaching staff that doesn't hold guys as accountable as Saban did...we saw this story under Coker.