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ACC Championship Game Path

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flips said:
Thanks. People gambling on Acc champ football futures gotta be a special brand of sicko. you definitely have a gambling problem if that's your jam lol
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You rang? Lol
 
Poptimus said:
There are probably better odds of 3 out of 4 not happening, if we are being honest. But good start tonight.
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My back of the napkin math, using current point spreads if available and sagarin if not yet posted:

GT -17 BC = .901 win percentage
GT ~pick vs Pitt = .50
Chance GT loses at least 1 = 55.2%

UVA+ 3.5 Duke = 39.4
uVA -VT = 75.5
Chance UVA loses at least 1 = 70.3%

SMU -5 LVille = .644
SMU -10.5 Cal = .781
Chance smu loses BOTH = .078

Duke -3.5 uva =.604
Duke -5 unc .644
Duke -4.5 wake .630
Lose at least 1= 75.6%

Treating each scenario as independent, which they are not, the chance of at least 3 of the 4 scenarios happening is: 32.9%

+204 with no vig

It’s very rough math, and treats each game as independent (which they are not cause teams play each other, and odds will change after each game). But you can see it is by no means insurmountable.
 
scrantoncane said:
My back of the napkin math, using current point spreads if available and sagarin if not yet posted:

GT -17 BC = .901 win percentage
GT ~pick vs Pitt = .50
Chance GT loses at least 1 = 55.2%

UVA+ 3.5 Duke = 39.4
uVA -VT = 75.5
Chance UVA loses at least 1 = 70.3%

SMU -5 LVille = .644
SMU -10.5 Cal = .781
Chance smu loses BOTH = .078

Duke -3.5 uva =.604
Duke -5 unc .644
Duke -4.5 wake .630
Lose at least 1= 75.6%

Treating each scenario as independent, which they are not, the chance of at least 3 of the 4 scenarios happening is: 32.9%

+204 with no vig

It’s very rough math, and treats each game as independent (which they are not cause teams play each other, and odds will change after each game). But you can see it is by no means insurmountable.
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Way too early in the morning for that much math.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I'm having some incredibly depressing deja va writing this but we all know the situation right now, so let's just take it head-on and deal with it.

I saw this from Brad Crawford a few minutes ago, and I hadn't seen it laid out like this, so if I missed it and it's in another thread, we can let this one die but I thought this was a very well laid out way to understand what needs to happen. As we all know, this ain't great, but ****, look at what happened last weekend, literally anything can happen in this conference (except us winning it, apparently)

But, according to Mr. Crawford FOUR OF THESE FIVE THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN IN ORDER FOR US TO MAKE THE ACCCG:

  1. Georgia Tech loses to Boston College OR Pitt
  2. UVA loses to Duke OR Virginia Tech
  3. SMU loses to Louisville AND Cal
  4. Duke loses to UVA, Wake, OR North Carolina
  5. Louisville loses to Clemson OR SMU
If someone wants to fact check this, go nuts. Honestly, the only one that looks really sketchy is #3. But again, we need 4 of these to happen.

Starting with this weekend, here's what we got:

Friday night -- Clemson @ Louisville -- Go Tigers, if Clemson wins, #5 is unlocked for the good guys

Sat 3:30 GT @ Boston College -- Go Eagles, but good luck, they're 16.5 point dogs

3:30 UVA @ Duke -- Someone's going to win this game, I think. So we're either clearing #2 or #4 here. I think we want Duke to win, because if not, then all UVA will have left is VT, and they'll be a big favorite. So, go fighting Mannies.

So, we need 4 of the 5. We know we're getting 1 of them with Duke vs UVA. Would be really nice for Clemson to knock off Louisville to get 2 of the 4 down this weekend with 2 more weekends of potential chaos to go.

Sad ****, but here we are. Go Tiguhs, Eagles, and Dookies.
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God bless our pointy little heads—someone needs to go back over the past twenty years, season by season and do a book called "Canes Heartbreaking Scenarios to win the ACC."
 
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scrantoncane said:
My back of the napkin math, using current point spreads if available and sagarin if not yet posted:

GT -17 BC = .901 win percentage
GT ~pick vs Pitt = .50
Chance GT loses at least 1 = 55.2%

UVA+ 3.5 Duke = 39.4
uVA -VT = 75.5
Chance UVA loses at least 1 = 70.3%

SMU -5 LVille = .644
SMU -10.5 Cal = .781
Chance smu loses BOTH = .078

Duke -3.5 uva =.604
Duke -5 unc .644
Duke -4.5 wake .630
Lose at least 1= 75.6%

Treating each scenario as independent, which they are not, the chance of at least 3 of the 4 scenarios happening is: 32.9%

+204 with no vig

It’s very rough math, and treats each game as independent (which they are not cause teams play each other, and odds will change after each game). But you can see it is by no means insurmountable.
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Nice breakdown, we definitely have a shot. Although GT will be favored against Pitt at GT, maybe -4 if I had to venture a guess. If GT is pick’em at home I will be all over that bet.
 
Silver King said:
God bless our pointy little heads—someone needs to go back over the past twenty years, season by season and do a book called "Canes Heartbreaking Scenarios to win the ACC."
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If Miami wins ……………
2 of the 4 are already accomplished.
 
If’s should have never happened, we should have layed waste to all we played.

Allegedly we were that good to gave made a run .

If it wasn’t for (2) trick plays last weeks game would’ve been super close to lose .

We always need help
 
I’ll revise my prediction to GT -3 vs Pitt, although today’s games will of course have an impact. The ESPN matchup predictor has GT 58% likely to win, it is an excellent predictor of future spreads. 58% correlates to a -3 favorite. For example, right now East Carolina has 57.68% no vig odds against Memphis today and East Carolina is -3 (-147 ML, Memphis +129).

Point is, Pitt can beat GT on the road, of course. But we will need another (small) upset.

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Poptimus said:
I’ll revise my prediction to GT -3 vs Pitt, although today’s games will of course have an impact. The ESPN matchup predictor has GT 58% likely to win, it is an excellent predictor of future spreads. 58% correlates to a -3 favorite. For example, right now East Carolina has 57.68% no vig odds against Memphis today and East Carolina is -3 (-147 ML, Memphis +129).

Point is, Pitt can beat GT on the road, of course. But we will need another (small) upset.

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I hate always being a needy team , it stinks
 
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I just want ND to lose to Pitt and us win out. Squeak into the playoffs at this point. But it would be cool to finally win thIS raggedy assssss conference. Hope we can do both but all of the stars will have to align perfectly for it to happen
 
Poptimus said:
I’ll revise my prediction to GT -3 vs Pitt, although today’s games will of course have an impact. The ESPN matchup predictor has GT 58% likely to win, it is an excellent predictor of future spreads. 58% correlates to a -3 favorite. For example, right now East Carolina has 57.68% no vig odds against Memphis today and East Carolina is -3 (-147 ML, Memphis +129).

Point is, Pitt can beat GT on the road, of course. But we will need another (small) upset.

View attachment 342920
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If the game were today, it might even be shorter than GT -3. Either way, barring big injuries today I don’t think Pitt will be more than a FG dog next week. Obviously can easily win that game in Atlanta.
 
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