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ACC Championship Game Path

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scrantoncane said:
My back of the napkin math, using current point spreads if available and sagarin if not yet posted:

GT -17 BC = .901 win percentage
GT ~pick vs Pitt = .50
Chance GT loses at least 1 = 55.2%

UVA+ 3.5 Duke = 39.4
uVA -VT = 75.5
Chance UVA loses at least 1 = 70.3%

SMU -5 LVille = .644
SMU -10.5 Cal = .781
Chance smu loses BOTH = .078

Duke -3.5 uva =.604
Duke -5 unc .644
Duke -4.5 wake .630
Lose at least 1= 75.6%

Treating each scenario as independent, which they are not, the chance of at least 3 of the 4 scenarios happening is: 32.9%

+204 with no vig

It’s very rough math, and treats each game as independent (which they are not cause teams play each other, and odds will change after each game). But you can see it is by no means insurmountable.
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The more I look at this, it really does come down to GT/Pitt.

~8% chance SMU loses both. Maybe if Jennings gets injured or something. Otherwise, scratch this and we need all 3 of the other scenarios to occur.

2 of the 3 are 70%+ chance. That’s good.

But GT is 90% to beat BC today.

Thus, GT must lose to Pitt. Still need ball to bounce our way after that, but we are better than 50% at that point. (~53%)
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Definitely not. They’ll be less than a FG favorite against Louisville and less than a TD at Cal.
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Agree, and then the bigger question is......

How the **** did Miami lose to SMU again?

Signed,

Peruche

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scrantoncane said:
The more I look at this, it really does come down to GT/Pitt.

~8% chance SMU loses both. Maybe if Jennings gets injured or something. Otherwise, scratch this and we need all 3 of the other scenarios to occur.

2 of the 3 are 70%+ chance. That’s good.

But GT is 90% to beat BC today.

Thus, GT must lose to Pitt. Still need ball to bounce our way after that, but we are better than 50% at that point. (~53%)
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Statistically, we want Duke to beat UVA since there’s a significantly greater chance Duke loses to either Wake or UNC than UVA losing to VT.
 
What happens if Pitt, GT, Miami, SMU, VA, and Duke all finish 6-2, or say one is 7-1 and we have 5 with 2. Impossible to predict?
 
3FW said:
What happens if Pitt, GT, Miami, SMU, VA, and Duke all finish 6-2, or say one is 7-1 and we have 5 with 2. Impossible to predict?
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Find that site where we can plug in that scenario lol

Is it even possible that many finish 6-2?
 
3FW said:
What happens if Pitt, GT, Miami, SMU, VA, and Duke all finish 6-2, or say one is 7-1 and we have 5 with 2. Impossible to predict?
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It's impossible to know because it then comes down to opponents win percentage, which depends on every ACC game played. I said in another thread, there's a very plausible scenario that the winner of the Syracuse vs BC game determines whether we finish 2nd or 5th in the conference.
 
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hurricaneman said:
It's impossible to know because it then comes down to opponents win percentage, which depends on every ACC game played. I said in another thread, there's a very plausible scenario that the winner of the Syracuse vs BC game determines whether we finish 2nd or 5th in the conference.
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The tie breaker should be the highest ranked team. That would be in the best interest of the conference.
 
Best scenario as of today:
Mia - beat vt & pitt - 6-2
GT - lose to pitt & uga 6-2, drop in polls
PITT - beat gt, lose to Mia 5-3
UVA - lose to vt (unlikely)- 6-2
SMU - lose to lou & cal (unlikely) - 5-3
DUKE - lose to either unc or wf - 5-3 at worst

If UVA beats VT, they're in the ACCCG. If SMU only loses 1 of 2, they finish 6-2 with the tie breaker over us.
 
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