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#6 Wake Forest bs #3 Miami 3:00 p.m. ACCN (allegedly)

Take off your blinders and look at these resumes. How can you get mad at ND being seeded ahead of us if they win this weekend? This doesn’t even take into account how much better they’ve been over the past month. The only thing you can argue is we beat them 2 of 3 at home. That’s not enough to overcome the difference.

ND
Record 35-13
RPI - 9 (will finish 6-7)
SOS - 55 (will go up)
14-6 Q1 record (will be 16-6)
16-11 conf record
Conference Champs


Miami
Record 39-18
RPI - 14 (will finish 14-16)
SOS - 21
14-12 Q1 record
20-10 conf record
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
Except not head to head, because we beat ND head to head, down the stretch. That’s the only team I’m objecting to, in relationship to UM’s chances. ND lost their last series, head to head, against a comparable conference opponent. They’ve won 2 games in the tourney. Yay.

Why is the top 4 negligible? Why not top 6? It’s an arbitrary distinction to say “these guys are basically the same, but those guys are different.”

RPI is a fair point, considering the history of the committee. It doesn’t make ND’s case better to me, but it’s a fair point for them.
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Head to head isn’t the end all be all when the home team wins 2 of 3. If we would’ve swept them or won on the road, you could argue that all day. See my other post with resumes. To me it’s clear.

I say top 4 is negligible bc everyone was within 3 games of each other with ND and VT playing 3 less games. Lost 2 to Vt, won 2 against ND, didn’t play Louisville. ND /VT got rain. Ville swept ND, that was the only series that you could point to that one team “dominated.” Everywhere else the home team took 2 of 3 which is the expected outcome.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Take off your blinders and look at these resumes. How can you get mad at ND being seeded ahead of us if they win this weekend? This doesn’t even take into account how much better they’ve been over the past month. The only thing you can argue is we beat them 2 of 3 at home. That’s not enough to overcome the difference.

ND
Record 35-13
RPI - 9 (will finish 6-7)
SOS - 55 (will go up)
14-6 Q1 record (will be 16-6)
16-11 conf record
Conference Champs


Miami
Record 39-18
RPI - 14 (will finish 14-16)
SOS - 21
14-12 Q1 record
20-10 conf record
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The “only thing I can argue” is winning 2 of 3? How can you say a 16-11 conference record isn’t significantly worse than a 20-10 record? That’s not a 3 game difference, it’s 5. If they’d played VT it’s likely even a bigger disparity, although you don’t think home series wins are of note, so I’m not sure what actually matters other than Q1 and RPI.

There are data points in favor of both schools, I’m not omitting any of it to reach my conclusion. The biggest case in favor of ND is Q1 and RPI, the biggest in favor of Miami is the head to head series win and a clearly better conference record.

I’m not sure it makes sense to keep going round and round on this. I hope ND loses and we never get to find out.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
The “only thing I can argue” is winning 2 of 3? How can you say a 16-11 conference record isn’t significantly worse than a 20-10 record? That’s not a 3 game difference, it’s 5. If they’d played VT it’s likely even a bigger disparity, although you don’t think home series wins are of note, so I’m not sure what actually matters other than Q1 and RPI.

There are data points in favor of both schools, I’m not omitting any of it to reach my conclusion. The biggest case in favor of ND is Q1 and RPI, the biggest in favor of Miami is the head to head series win and a clearly better conference record.

I’m not sure it makes sense to keep going round and round on this. I hope ND loses and we never get to find out.
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I hope they lose and we never find out as well, but I’m telling you how the committee will see it. Right or wrong, if Texas and ND win this weekend, we’ll be out. You’ll get the explanation on the selection show.
 
IndayArtHauz said:
I don’t agree with anything that you’ve said, but I appreciate the response.

We were closer to finishing ahead of VT than ND was to finishing ahead of us. In fact we likely only lost out because VT didn’t play enough games. That would’ve won us the conference, and yet we finished third because of the division-winner mandate that gave second to Lou. But it doesn’t matter, there’s no excuse, because at the end of the day we finished third. However, calling the gap between us and ND “negligible” means you need to call the gap between us and first “extremely negligible”, imo. Can’t have it both ways, and we finished ahead of Lou record-wise, while ND did not.

So we finished third in the best conference in the country, while playing every good team in the conference but one. Also while beating ND head to head in a series literally last weekend. That’s a heck of a lot more impressive than winning a tournament, period, let alone winning it against the worst teams who entered. ND is in the exact same boat as us looking up at VT, but with a worse record.

I can’t even begin to understand, “(The season) doesn’t compare to winning the tourney no matter who they had to play.” You’re a very knowledgeable poster but that doesn’t make an ounce of sense. Who you play doesn’t matter? Winning the season is less impressive than winning the tourney? What?

If the conference is good, then the season matters more than the tourney. If the conference is bad, then the season matters more than the tourney. I don’t think you’d be arguing otherwise if it wasn’t UM here.
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You do not agree that his opinion would be unpopular on this board? ;)
 
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I guess Miami didn’t lose that top 8 seed. Anyone want to tell me they didn’t again
 
Unsurprisingly, D1Baseball has us out of the top 8 as of this am.

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One thing about the conference records we’re comparing…..the aggregate record is the one that matters. We had a lead over ND in that regard, but 0-2 allowed them to quickly close that gap.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Unsurprisingly, D1Baseball has us out of the top 8 as of this am.

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And there it is. Even if ND loses today we won’t get that top 8 back. It’s a wrap. We all know Miami rarely gets the benefit of the doubt in these situations. Looking like absolute **** in the ACC tourney sealed the deal and will negate the head to head. Even Southern Miss is projected above us and they lost last night.

Hello 9 seed and host the Gators. Then watch our team make countless errors and lose to them again.

Meh.
 
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Just like I was saying yesterday when I caught some heat...latest projection has miami being replaced by ND...sucks but the way they have played the last 9 or 10 games they really don't deserve it
 
Number1CanesFan said:
The funny thing is Miami isn't really out of a top 8 seed. I was worried about Southern Miss, but they lost. TamU and Auburn could make a run in the SEC tournament and get a top 8 seed, but that's really it and only one of the two will get there. Vandy, ND, WF, and UNC make up the 6-9 RPI. Only ND could be an national top 8 seed because the others don't have a good conference record in my opinion. Texas #10 RPI could win the Big 12 pushing them into a top 8 RPI, but has a 14-10 conference record.

Everyone else ahead of Miami at #14 RPI doesn't have a good enough conference record to get a national top 8 seed. Maybe East Carolina can sneak in there currently at #17 if they win their conference tournament.

So, there's 2 spots open if ND takes one of the 6-8 national seeds. Miami could back its way into a top 8 seed. The way the team is playing it may not even matter.
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A&M is a lock for a national seed. They're sitting 5th right now and will probably drop to no worse than 6 if they lost in the semis.
 
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aleahy said:
Regional

Palmquist starts game 1 in the 1/4
Walters starts game 2 in the winners bracket

Ziehl is the setup and McFarlane closes. Everyone else is all hands on deck to fill in. Walters has to start and go as far as he can.
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I'm sorry this is an atrocious take. If you don't have a capable starter other than your ace to pitch against a dog ***** 4 seed, you don't deserve to get out of your regional. You throw Palm in game 2, and you pick between Garland, Rosario, or Ligon for G1. If you get to a G3, all hands on deck, which includes Walters going multiple innings as you alluded to.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Right on cue
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of course, on cue.

but this team doesn't deserve any better.

gino and his cast of misfits should be embarassed.

i'd be shocked if they make it out of the regional. it's a group of coaches and players that looked like they just quit.
 
I’ll admit UF is hot after beating Arkansas and currently thrashing Bama in the 1st…they might sneak in as a host and backdoor someone like GA Southern.
 
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Sad state of affairs in this thread… rightfully so

Let’s hope a miracle happens and we play better ball and get out of a regional

If not…. The dimare hot seat discussions have to begin.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
A&M is a lock for a national seed. They're sitting 5th right now and will probably drop to no worse than 6 if they lost in the semis.
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You must be looking at some ranking. I'm looking at the RPI and record. They're conference record is similar to Miami, but have several bad non conference losses. The SEC tournament has helped them, while the ACC tournament has hurt us. Miami has dropped to 16th and TamU is 17th on RPI. They've probably done enough for a top 8 seed. Another win and they’re a lock for sure.

There's likely 2 spots remaining for top 8 seeds. It comes down to ND, OK State, and Texas. Hopefully ND loses the sem-final game and maybe U of Oklahoma can win the Big 12. Otherwise, ND and TX/OSU make the top 8.

Again, it likely doesn't matter because UM is playing their worst baseball where the pitching is the worst it's been all season and the bats aren't consistent outside of Kayfus and Romero. The fielding is just mediocre and not championship level. That all adds up to a 1-2 regional unless things change in a hurry which they can. The team is capable of winning at home. They're also capable of losing.

We have a very young team. My expectation was to make a Super Regional. I don't expect us to achieve that now. Hope I'm wrong. Next year my expectation is Omaha.
 
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