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5 things I expect to see

LuCane said:
1. Zone drops. I expect to see one of our DEs or a LB lined up at Edge and drop back into coverage. Lightfoot is likely to have an opportunity for a pick like UF did against Chambliss. It may change the entire game. They also run a lot of quick outs from inside WRs that allow opportunities for a break on the ball. Fitz, heads up, kid.

2. DT movement. I expect our DTs to collapse their interior, but our ends and Safety blitzes will determine if the play is extended. It may be the key to the entire game. UGA did it, but couldn't get home because Chambliss or Lacy broke contain.

3. Edge Set. I expect to see our DEs play under more control this game and set the edge against Lacy's bouncing. Lacy effectively bounced multiple runs he initially pressed against UGA.

4. Vertical attempts. I expect Carson Beck to throw more digs and deep in routes like he did a handful of times against SMU. This should come off PA and it's needed early to keep their Safeties soft.

5. Offensive blitz counters. I expect them to try to duplicate TAMU's blitz plan, and ideally we have underneath routes and a better overall plan for quick hitters.

If things go correctly, we should win. But, things don't often go as planned. If Chambliss runs more, I think it neutralizes some of our advantages, and maybe it becomes a toss-up game. I'm hoping one of our INT opportunities or two hit and flip the game.
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I’m expecting Lightfoot to have a great game and Hetherman to put him in some nice spots to create havoc

#3 and #4 will combine for 3 sacks
 
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Cane6 said:
I’m expecting Lightfoot to have a great game and Hetherman to put him in some nice spots to create havoc

#3 and #4 will combine for 3 sacks
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I'm still torn on 3rd and medium/long if we pin our ears back.. they run Soo much QB draw on 3rd down to set up 4th down and that Louisville draw still haunts me as we rush up field and ball pops underneath..

New hc who may change that dynamic but definitely something to pay attention to
 
JHallCanes said:
I’m with you

I suspect Ole Miss defense isn’t quite as bad as the stats lead you to believe. I assume they have athletes out there. Same as our offense the way they’re playing at the moment is not indicative of the seasonal stat sheet

So as much as is being made about our defense vs their offense it’s probably gonna end up a bit of wash so ultimately feels like our offense will dictate the final score
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I'll say this, the offenses they faced were not good, across the board. They're ranked 49th in defensive efficiency for a reason. For context, Miami played 8 teams with a higher defensive efficiency than Ole Miss (Miami has also played 8 teams in the top 28 of offensive efficiency). UGA and Arkansas were, by far, the best offenses they faced, in terms of efficiency, and they gave up 34+ in all 3 of those games. I don't think this game ever gets away from Miami. I think we'll always be in it. Just a matter of controlling it and closing out.

I'm gonna say the attribute that Miami has that is not being talked about as an advantage has been their ability to close out games in these playoffs. Ole Miss has been very lucky all season that teams haven't been able to close them out on offense. I think I counted 6 games this season where a team had the ball and could tie or take the lead under 5:00 minutes against them. None of them could do it, probably because they faced some terrible offenses. It could very well be a repeat that Miami is up 1 score with 7 minutes left and they go down and score a TD on a 6:00 drive to seal it.
 
LuCane said:
The alternative ending you’re describing is the SMU game. Yes, some absurd things happened to allow that result, too, but we had the ball with an opportunity to make it a two score game multiple times and were very stuck on our tendencies that game. Shout to @Lance Roffers, @OrangeBowlMagic, and @skyman who were all aboard the ‘break these predictable/conservetive tendencies’ train.
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Josh Pate mentioned this on bussing wit the boys podcast. He was at the smu game and mentioned how the run working for us leaning on ole miss can give a false hope if we are dominating but maybe settle for fg or two.. stay within 2 scores in 4th and then build our own trap door, they score, get stop and now chambliss can run around with a gassed out d line..

About 3 minutes starting at 28 minute mark. (Can't timestamp on phone)

 
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They will dink and dunk us to death if we sit in zone all day like we did vs osu on their 2 tds drive. Have to play more man and not give their receivers so much space to complete those quick hitch, curls and slants routes
 

4. Vertical attempts. I expect Carson Beck to throw more digs and deep in routes like he did a handful of times against SMU. This should come off PA and it's needed early to keep their Safeties soft.

Going to put this here:



The lack of vertical shots has bothered me all year. I’m guessing it’s more Beck than Dawson, but that’s just a guess. Beck just seems to want to get it out quick and some of the vertical shots can take time to develop.

But it’s crazy that we started to score MORE points as our qb started to get more risk-averse.
 
scrantoncane said:
4. Vertical attempts. I expect Carson Beck to throw more digs and deep in routes like he did a handful of times against SMU. This should come off PA and it's needed early to keep their Safeties soft.

Going to put this here:



The lack of vertical shots has bothered me all year. I’m guessing it’s more Beck than Dawson, but that’s just a guess. Beck just seems to want to get it out quick and some of the vertical shots can take time to develop.

But it’s crazy that we started to score MORE points as our qb started to get more risk-averse.
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It’s why we have to watch the games for context. While he became more risk averse, we started involving Mali as the center point of so much more, and broke tendencies with his motion, having him in the backfield, and otherwise keeping teams off balance.
 
LuCane said:
It’s why we have to watch the games for context. While he became more risk averse, we started involving Mali as the center point of so much more, and broke tendencies with his motion, having him in the backfield, and otherwise keeping teams off balance.
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And look at Toney’s long reception for each game. Drops off a cliff after the Louisville game:

1767892187695.png


Toney WAS our vertical threat until they started using him differently. We saw a few vertical attempts to Jojo and Josh Moore (?) later in the season that didn’t ever connect.

We can really use a deep threat next season. But we can save that conversation until the offseason.
 
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scrantoncane said:
And look at Toney’s long reception for each game. Drops off a cliff after the Louisville game:

View attachment 350866

Toney WAS our vertical threat until they started using him differently. We saw a few vertical attempts to Jojo and Josh Moore (?) later in the season that didn’t ever connect.

We can really use a deep threat next season. But we can save that conversation until the offseason.
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I believe we have to hit a couple 20+ yarders today to make our lives easier and in the control Mario wants to be.
 
scrantoncane said:
And look at Toney’s long reception for each game. Drops off a cliff after the Louisville game:

View attachment 350866

Toney WAS our vertical threat until they started using him differently. We saw a few vertical attempts to Jojo and Josh Moore (?) later in the season that didn’t ever connect.

We can really use a deep threat next season. But we can save that conversation until the offseason.
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Definitely not an expert, but it seems like Carson is more comfortable throwing deep to taller/bigger WRs, but that our bigger/taller WRs have not been able to get open/pull it down when they do?
 
hurricaneman said:
I'll say this, the offenses they faced were not good, across the board. They're ranked 49th in defensive efficiency for a reason. For context, Miami played 8 teams with a higher defensive efficiency than Ole Miss (Miami has also played 8 teams in the top 28 of offensive efficiency). UGA and Arkansas were, by far, the best offenses they faced, in terms of efficiency, and they gave up 34+ in all 3 of those games. I don't think this game ever gets away from Miami. I think we'll always be in it. Just a matter of controlling it and closing out.

I'm gonna say the attribute that Miami has that is not being talked about as an advantage has been their ability to close out games in these playoffs. Ole Miss has been very lucky all season that teams haven't been able to close them out on offense. I think I counted 6 games this season where a team had the ball and could tie or take the lead under 5:00 minutes against them. None of them could do it, probably because they faced some terrible offenses. It could very well be a repeat that Miami is up 1 score with 7 minutes left and they go down and score a TD on a 6:00 drive to seal it.
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Not just closing out games but closing out drives

Their offense is pretty relentless so I know we will bend

The Wazzou game was interesting. Ole Miss moved the ball but turned it over on downs, fumbled, and missed a field goal in the first 3 possessions

To their credit they take so many swings it eventually lands but if we control the game on offense they have to be cleaner on offense
 
brock said:
They will dink and dunk us to death if we sit in zone all day like we did vs osu on their 2 tds drive. Have to play more man and not give their receivers so much space to complete those quick hitch, curls and slants routes
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Even if we blitz, expect them to dink/dunk on quick throws. ATM had some drives on us where they did that. Will be a challenge. I fully expect them to have a few 10+ play drives. First couple drives to open the game will tell us a lot. We have to be very efficient on offense
 
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LuCane said:
I believe we have to hit a couple 20+ yarders today to make our lives easier and in the control Mario wants to be.
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This. Great thread btw.

We have had 1 offensive play - the Fletcher run against A&M - of more than 20 yards in our two playoff games.

Don't know if anyone can filter for it, but I can't imagine upsetting a team favored by more than a TD with your longest offensive play going for 19 yards - as we did against OSU - has happened more than a handful of times in college football since the forward pass became a thing.

Our offense has been pretty efficient executing in a phone booth, but we've also left a ton of points on the field on offense in the playoff, because we haven't produced explosive plays. I'll breath a lot easier tonight if we expand our margin of error a bit by hitting some explosives.
 
scrantoncane said:
And look at Toney’s long reception for each game. Drops off a cliff after the Louisville game:

View attachment 350866

Toney WAS our vertical threat until they started using him differently. We saw a few vertical attempts to Jojo and Josh Moore (?) later in the season that didn’t ever connect.

We can really use a deep threat next season. But we can save that conversation until the offseason.
Click to expand...

Obviously any weapon is great to have but I think the way they want to play this year the vertical threat isn't really that needed. I think they want to go on these 12 play drives, they want to wear down the defense. I don't think we're any different on offense in that respect, start of the year vs now, I think how they've chosen to do that is what's different. Instead of run, run, run, they are taking advantage of the athletes they have in the short passing game. I mean, Toney and Daniels are much harder to cover the first 10 yards than they are past that.
 
flips said:
This. Great thread btw.

We have had 1 offensive play - the Fletcher run against A&M - of more than 20 yards in our two playoff games.

Don't know if anyone can filter for it, but I can't imagine upsetting a team favored by more than a TD with your longest offensive play going for 19 yards - as we did against OSU - has happened more than a handful of times in college football since the forward pass became a thing.

Our offense has been pretty efficient executing in a phone booth, but we've also left a ton of points on the field on offense in the playoff, because we haven't produced explosive plays. I'll breath a lot easier tonight if we expand our margin of error a bit by hitting some explosives.
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Oddly enough, both opponents so far were willing to play in a phone booth. Both thought they had the advantage along the LOS. Ole Miss probably doesn't have the preconceived notion (The same can be said for their in conference games too.) They play with the knowledge that they need explosives to win and are OK giving them up knowing the will be able to answer. They falter when the opponent gets a stop or two each half.
 
flips said:
This. Great thread btw.

We have had 1 offensive play - the Fletcher run against A&M - of more than 20 yards in our two playoff games.

Don't know if anyone can filter for it, but I can't imagine upsetting a team favored by more than a TD with your longest offensive play going for 19 yards - as we did against OSU - has happened more than a handful of times in college football since the forward pass became a thing.

Our offense has been pretty efficient executing in a phone booth, but we've also left a ton of points on the field on offense in the playoff, because we haven't produced explosive plays. I'll breath a lot easier tonight if we expand our margin of error a bit by hitting some explosives.
Click to expand...
the two times we left points on the field v TOSU were (a) the mark flecther jr. fumble at the 19 on our second possession and (b) the last possession of the first half where Dawson's play calling (by his own admission) was **** poor (calls for a deep ball and Beck gets sacked, followed by a jet sweep and 70 fails to block Styles and we lose 4 yards. we were never getting explosive plays with deep safety coverage. they took that away from us. plus great tackling by them prevented short passes from being broken into explosive plays.

/we IMO can win without explosive plays.
 
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