2026-27 playoffs

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

Louisville at 11-2 with a Charlotte loss is the same resume as byu last year. Fwiw

I don’t agree with that.

BYU didn’t have a quality loss (and that’s not just a **** porst). They got blown out by TTU twice. As long as Ole Miss remains strong, it will be viewed favorable. SMU is likely a decent team. Pitt and Kentucky also on the schedule.

 

[cookies]

Louisville at 11-2 with a Charlotte loss is the same resume as byu last year. Fwiw

No it’s a bit different, much more comparable to SMU in 2024, but it’s even better than them.

The SEC, this year, is going to have the best OOC record against p4 teams. Thus, losing by 3 week 1 to Ole Miss isn’t going to keep them out if their second loss is to a playoff team. Moreover, Louisville at 11-2 would have a win over Kentucky who looks fiesty & on the ascent this year.

BYU lost by 3+ scores to the same team twice. They also weren’t dominant in their best wins over Arizona and Utah.

 

[StevoBevo]

Update after week 4.

#1 Texas
#2 UGA
#3 Notre Dame
#4 Miami

#5 OSU Vs #12 Boise state (Winner plays Miami)
#6 Indiana Vs #11 LSU (Winner plays Notre Dame)
#7 Alabama Vs #10 BYU (Winner plays UGA)
#8 UF Vs #9 Ole Miss (Winner plays Texas)

Conference break down:

SEC: 6 (disgusting)
Big10: 2
ACC: 1
Big12: 1
Independent: 1
G6: 1

New teams in bracket: UF
Teams that left bracket: Texas Tech

*Reminder that this is for exercise purposes only, rankings are based on the AP Top 25 until the CFP Rankings are released*

Obviously I expect plenty of movement as the weeks go on. Still interesting to see the ebs and flows during the season.

The Big12 has the next 2 teams knocking on the door (#12 Texas Tech & #13 Utah)

 

[StevoBevo]

Update after week 5 (Ranking based on AP poll till CFP rankings actually come out)

BYES
#1 Texas
#2 UGA
#3 Notre Dame
#4 Miami

1st Round
- #5 Ohio State vs #12 Boise state (Winner plays #4 Miami)
- #6 Alabama vs #11 Texas Tech (Winner plays #3 Notre Dame)
- #7 Indiana Vs #10 LSU (Winner plays #2 UGA)
- #8 BYU vs #9 Ole Miss (Winner plays #1 Texas)

Breakdown:
SEC: 5
Big10: 2
Big12: 2
IND: 1
ACC: 1
G6: 1

Dropped out: UF (#8 to #16)
New: Texas tech (#11)

Next 3 In line: #12 Utah (Big12) #13 Oregon (Big10) #14 Missouri (SEC)

 

[305407cane]

Ohio state you just gotta stop 4. Wouldn’t be the worst matchup honestly.

 

[Scorpioncane]

I know it’s absurdly early to think about playoffs but figured this thread can monitor the “playoff field” and its evolvement between Now and selection Sunday.

As it stands, according to the AP (which is what will be used to go off of until the CFP rankings are put out, regardless of how unrealistic/preposterous the rankings may be)
As it stands today the playoff field would be:
#1. Texas*
#2. UGA
#3. Notre Dame
#4. Ole Miss

#5 Indiana* Vs *#12 Boise state (Winners plays Ole Miss
#6 Miami Vs #11 Texas Tech (Winners plays Notre Dame)
#7 OSU Vs #10 LSU (Winner plays UGA)
#8 Alabama Vs #9 BYU (Winner plays Texas)

Conference break down:
SEC: 5
Big10: 2
ACC: 1
Big12: 2
G6: 1
Independent: 1

I will update this each Sunday when the next AP poll comes out, I expect lots of shuffling all year until the final 3-4 weeks.

Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs, recent history suggests that’s more harmful than helpful and last year was no different for teams that had a 1st round bye

So you're assuming we lose to notre dame?

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

SMU looks like trash also the last few weeks.

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

Ohio state you just gotta stop 4. Wouldn’t be the worst matchup honestly.

Don't even have to stop him just keep him from taking over and honestly if you can beat on him, you can wear him down since everything they do goes through him right now. They also have a bit of a power run game, but we got the answer for that if we are healthy.

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

So you're assuming we lose to notre dame?

how it stands based on current rankings, this is not a projection

 

[Scorpioncane]

how it stands based on current rankings, this is not a projection

If we're top 4 we get a bye! In your post you have us 6th? Am I missing something?

 

[Hufftwoseven]

If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

SMU looks like trash also the last few weeks.

WF might legit be the only hope for ACC at large

 

[StevoBevo]

If we're top 4 we get a bye! In your post you have us 6th? Am I missing something?

The current AP poll has us at 4. The first post I made we were at 6. As the rankings fluctuate throughout the season so will our seeding.

This isn’t a projection this is simply a breakdown of the CFP seeding based on the rankings available, as of now the AP poll is what we will rely on until the CFP rankings are released in 4 weeks. (Which typically isn’t terribly different from the AP)

Right now we’d be the #4 seed and play the winner of #5 Ohio state and #12 Boise State

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

WF might legit be the only hope for ACC at large

I don’t see an ACC at large aside from us. Im really going out on a limb here but a 3 loss ACC team isn’t getting in. Best bet would be duke/wf going into their game with 1 loss each (via us) and them looking the part along the way (style points matter). I’m throwing Pitt out because of their QB. SMU if they do a 180 and win out regular season but that’s not happening in any real world scenario.

 

[Hufftwoseven]

WF might legit be the only hope for ACC at large

I don’t see an ACC at large aside from us. Im really going out on a limb here but a 3 loss ACC team isn’t getting in. Best bet would be duke/wf going into their game with 1 loss each (via us) and them looking the part along the way (style points matter). I’m throwing Pitt out because of their QB. SMU if they do a 180 and win out regular season but that’s not happening in any real world scenario.

I can legit see WF winning out. SMU is flirting with a loss every single week. WF will beat SMU. Their toughest match up left is Duke. But **** changes every week in the ACC. If WF wins out and keeps it within 3 TD’s vs us in the conference championship game I think they ‘could’ be in.

 

[cookies]

SMU looks like trash also the last few weeks.

Yeah their matchup with Wake should be interesting because I’m not sure wake’s secondary can stop SMU’s passing attack; might end up being a shootout like Purdue—Wake. Fully agree that SMU doesn’t look good and I’m not buying them as a potential opponent in the ACC-CCG.

Pitt is going to crumble so not considering them either. If i had to choose one team I’d choose wake although i hate CCG rematches so much so rooting against that future.

I don’t really buy Duke either although their matchup against Wake at the end of the season could prove to be pivotal. It feels like these tiebreaker rules are going to be important once again.

NC State is the sleeper team i have my eye on rn because they don’t have to play us and get a chance to hold a tiebreaker over Wake forest w/ a win this week. That would give the Wolfpack leeway to drop another acc game and still have the best 2 conference loss ‘body of work,’ compared to any challengers; except UVA.

UVA: Cuse, @ SMU, Duke, @Wake, Cal, UNC, @VT —

Wake’s scheduled is so nonthreatening tho. I see no scenario where Duke plays Wake at the end of the season and both teams are 10-1 w/ losses only to Miami lol.

Definitely a cloudy picture rn. Might sound crazy but i still prefer Louisville to all these other squads lmao.

Louisville has: FSU, @Cuse, Stanford, @GT, @UNC, Pitt, UK left. They may not be a playoff contender anymore but i could see them winning all those games. If they get a third in conference loss then they are cooked ofc. And in this scenario they’d need wake to drop 2 conference games amongst:

Wake: @NC State, @Cal, UVA, Cupcake, @SMU, @GT, Duke. It’s possible because 4 of the 6 games are on the road, and Duke is a rivalry game; yet there’d need to be an upset somewhere on the road. ****ert lost to NC State, GT, and Duke last year. Beat UVA 16-9 and SMU 13-12.

Bottom line: won’t know what’s what in this conference until post-Halloween

 

[caneworld]

Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs, recent history suggests that’s more harmful than helpful and last year was no different for teams that had a 1st round bye

Not getting a bye is advantageous when you don't play the conference championship game... otherwise it would be a brutal run... need some healing time if we are in the ACCCG..

 

[cookies]

Not getting a bye is advantageous when you don't play the conference championship game... otherwise it would be a brutal run... need some healing time it we are in the ACCCG..

This x1000.

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

Yeah their matchup with Wake should be interesting because I’m not sure wake’s secondary can stop SMU’s passing attack; might end up being a shootout like Purdue—Wake. Fully agree that SMU doesn’t look good and I’m not buying them as a potential opponent in the ACC-CCG.

Pitt is going to crumble so not considering them either. If i had to choose one team I’d choose wake although i hate CCG rematches so much so rooting against that future.

I don’t really buy Duke either although their matchup against Wake at the end of the season could prove to be pivotal. It feels like these tiebreaker rules are going to be important once again.

NC State is the sleeper team i have my eye on rn because they don’t have to play us and get a chance to hold a tiebreaker over Wake forest w/ a win this week. That would give the Wolfpack leeway to drop another acc game and still have the best 2 conference loss ‘body of work,’ compared to any challengers; except UVA.

UVA: Cuse, @ SMU, Duke, @Wake, Cal, UNC, @VT —

Wake’s scheduled is so nonthreatening tho. I see no scenario where Duke plays Wake at the end of the season and both teams are 10-1 w/ losses only to Miami lol.

Definitely a cloudy picture rn. Might sound crazy but i still prefer Louisville to all these other squads lmao.

Louisville has: FSU, @Cuse, Stanford, @GT, @UNC, Pitt, UK left. They may not be a playoff contender anymore but i could see them winning all those games. If they get a third in conference loss then they are cooked ofc. And in this scenario they’d need wake to drop 2 conference games amongst:

Wake: @NC State, @Cal, UVA, Cupcake, @SMU, @GT, Duke. It’s possible because 4 of the 6 games are on the road, and Duke is a rivalry game; yet there’d need to be an upset somewhere on the road. ****ert lost to NC State, GT, and Duke last year. Beat UVA 16-9 and SMU 13-12.

Bottom line: won’t know what’s what in this conference until post-Halloween

good break down and most likely scenario is the conference cannibalizes itself. We’re really hurt by not having another perceived top tier team. Or even anyone on the bubble of being there. We’re the only team to be able to dole out a quality L to the edge teams.

 

[cookies]

good break down and most likely scenario is the conference cannibalizes itself. We’re really hurt by not having another perceived top tier team. Or even anyone on the bubble of being there. We’re the only team to be able to dole out a quality L to the edge teams.

And even though it’s harder to go undefeated than it is to win a national championship, we’re expected to go undefeated all the same lol.

NC State’s turnaround narrative would be easier to reconcile if they hadn’t dropped that game against Vandy. I also could see VT finishing the season 10-2, but I’m not sure they’d get into the playoffs going 10-3 w/ 2 losses to Miami.

This is the first year of 9 in-conference games for the ACC and the SEC so maybe an interesting picture emerges by the end of the year with multiple 3 loss teams securing playoff spots.

I think this is going to end up being a two-bid year for the Big XII, which they haven’t had yet. They have 4 legit playoff contenders and one of them has a win that supersedes a potential playoff B1G team (Oregon).

The ACC is also a bit ahead of the other 3 conferences in regards to conference games and ooc p4 matchups, as 4 SEC schools play their ooc p4 matchup at rivalry week, and Oregon has only played 1 conference matchup so far while having UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio State all on the schedule still.

Definitely shaping up to be odder than 2024’s and 2025’s 12-team pools fasho.