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2026-27 playoffs

StevoBevo

StevoBevo

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I know it’s absurdly early to think about playoffs but figured this thread can monitor the “playoff field” and its evolvement between Now and selection Sunday.

As it stands, according to the AP (which is what will be used to go off of until the CFP rankings are put out, regardless of how unrealistic/preposterous the rankings may be)
As it stands today the playoff field would be:
#1. Texas*
#2. UGA
#3. Notre Dame
#4. Ole Miss

#5 Indiana* Vs *#12 Boise state (Winners plays Ole Miss
#6 Miami Vs #11 Texas Tech (Winners plays Notre Dame)
#7 OSU Vs #10 LSU (Winner plays UGA)
#8 Alabama Vs #9 BYU (Winner plays Texas)

Conference break down:
SEC: 5
Big10: 2
ACC: 1
Big12: 2
G6: 1
Independent: 1

I will update this each Sunday when the next AP poll comes out, I expect lots of shuffling all year until the final 3-4 weeks.

Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs, recent history suggests that’s more harmful than helpful and last year was no different for teams that had a 1st round bye
 
StevoBevo said:
Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs, recent history suggests that’s more harmful than helpful and last year was no different for teams that had a 1st round bye
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Still a limited sample size there.

But regardless, assuming we’re playing in the conference championship game, you’re asking us to win an additional game against a top-15ish team. From an odds standpoint that’s not a good position to be in
 
StevoBevo said:
Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs, recent history suggests that’s more harmful than helpful and last year was no different for teams that had a 1st round bye
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OSU had a 25 day wait before playing us, and we had a 21 day wait before playing aTm, while aTm had a 22 day wait before our game. Maybe those teams just think they're going to win without having to try because of where they finished the regular season.
 
CaneMutiny06 said:
Still a limited sample size there.

But regardless, assuming we’re playing in the conference championship game, you’re asking us to win an additional game against a top-15ish team. From an odds standpoint that’s not a good position to be in
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I keep forgetting we didn’t make the conference championship game last year & Duke/UVA did instead LOL

Even then, teams that played in their CCG had the same/similar fates when they had a Bye week. Seems the holiday season throws teams off a little bit when they aren’t locked into their next opponent immediately.
 
If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

Pointless to do as it stands right now projections, in order to do any projections whatsover, future bracket-outcomes must be based on schedule. For example, just within the twelve teams you listed; ND plays us and BYU, UGA has Alabama and Ole Miss, LSU has Alabama and Texas, and so forth. So what stands now is just a sequencing snapshot.

Right now, Boise State isn’t the top G6 team; Tulsa is. Tulsa controls their own destiny at this point, and would be better served, if they beat Arkansas this week, as a 12-1 team versus Boise State as a 12-1 team. Boise is going to need some luck, Michigan to keep winning, Oregon to have a good year, and for themselves to beat Western Michigan ~17+ points this week in order to leapfrog Tulsa.
 
cookies said:
If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

Pointless to do as it stands right now projections, in order to do any projections whatsover, future bracket-outcomes must be based on schedule. For example, just within the twelve teams you listed; ND plays us and BYU, UGA has Alabama and Ole Miss, LSU has Alabama and Texas, and so forth. So what stands now is just a sequencing snapshot.

Right now, Boise State isn’t the top G6 team; Tulsa is. Tulsa controls their own destiny at this point, and would be better served, if they beat Arkansas this week, as a 12-1 team versus Boise State as a 12-1 team. Boise is going to need some luck, Michigan to keep winning, Oregon to have a good year, and for themselves to beat Western Michigan ~17+ points this week in order to leapfrog Tulsa.
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This is what I am interested in. Last year, the commitee showed that losing or even getting blown out in the Conference championship game doesnt matter (see Bama).

So, what happens if you have a 11-1 Miami playing a 11-1 UL? Or lets say we are 11-1, UL is 9-3, but we lose to UL, do we both get in? Same scenario could happen in the Big 12 with the top 2 teams.

etc.
 
We’re in an advantageous spot because the presumed top 4 in the ACC is Miami Smu loserville and Virginia. We don’t play either one so neither will have a tie breaker over us.

But our resume without a nd win will be garbage.

In the OP I’d love to play tech then nd. Not a bad road
 
canes_226 said:
This is what I am interested in. Last year, the commitee showed that losing or even getting blown out in the Conference championship game doesnt matter (see Bama).

So, what happens if you have a 11-1 Miami playing a 11-1 UL? Or lets say we are 11-1, UL is 9-3, but we lose to UL, do we both get in? Same scenario could happen in the Big 12 with the top 2 teams.

etc.
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📠

To add to your point, Kentucky beating Texas A&M and Ole Miss beating LSU is big for us by affiliation; presuming we play Louisville and Louisville beat Kentucky. It’s not the same as mutual opponents, however it’s only one step removed from it—since Louisville will have played both teams.

It’s too late now, imo, to punish top ten teams for losing conference championship games. Both the committee and Notre dame recognized that when Alabama missed the ‘24 playoffs after the committee had to do all those mental gymnastics to justify 9-3 Alabama over 10-2 Miami. Thats why ND already had that special rule enacted for this ‘26 season, prior to Miami jumping them in ‘25.

There’s no honest way to say ND’s 49-20 win over Stanford was less impressive than Alabama’s 27-20 win over Auburn. They just wanted to get Alabama outta the way of the forthcoming controversy if ‘Bama lost.

in 2024, what you laid out happened to 11-1 SMU, who ended up bumping out Alabama because 9-3 Clemson jumped them after the CCG.

Last year, if Troy beats JMU, JMU isn’t in the playoffs anymore and neither is Troy. That would’ve opened up a spot for us and ND. However, although the opposite result would’ve saved us anxiety, we actually were not hurt hard by JMU winning because JMU lost 28-14 to Louisville.

Tulane, who beat ACC champs Duke, is the one that put us in a bind. If north Texas wins, we are secure and then the choice becomes between JMU, ND, and BYU; which I’m honestly not sure who would get in between JMU & ND. North Texas’ only loss in the RS was to USF 63-36.

Then ofc, if UVA wins, the equation changes again. Which is why how your opponents do actually matter, and it would’ve been too boldly corrupt for us to be left out when FSU beat Alabama. We had something over all the bubble teams except Tulane; we crushed NC State who beat UVA.

The fact that FSU put up a fight again this year, pre-weather delay, is good for us.

Arizona State and Iowa State were ranked fifteenth and sixteenth respectively, both 10-2, when they played in the CCG. So either team had to win to get in.

Last year, BYU was 11-1, ranked eleventh, and lost a second time to Texas Tech in the CCG. Their best wins were 9-3 Arizona and 10-2 Utah. ND’s two losses were close, BYU’s weren’t, thus why ND was ahead of BYU.

So they take in all these various factors which is why how it happens matters.
 
cookies said:
If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

Pointless to do as it stands right now projections, in order to do any projections whatsover, future bracket-outcomes must be based on schedule. For example, just within the twelve teams you listed; ND plays us and BYU, UGA has Alabama and Ole Miss, LSU has Alabama and Texas, and so forth. So what stands now is just a sequencing snapshot.

Right now, Boise State isn’t the top G6 team; Tulsa is. Tulsa controls their own destiny at this point, and would be better served, if they beat Arkansas this week, as a 12-1 team versus Boise State as a 12-1 team. Boise is going to need some luck, Michigan to keep winning, Oregon to have a good year, and for themselves to beat Western Michigan ~17+ points this week in order to leapfrog Tulsa.
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Louisville at 11-2 with a Charlotte loss is the same resume as byu last year. Fwiw
 
cookies said:
If Louisville goes 11-1 and loses in the ACC-CCG, they’re getting in.

Pointless to do as it stands right now projections, in order to do any projections whatsover, future bracket-outcomes must be based on schedule. For example, just within the twelve teams you listed; ND plays us and BYU, UGA has Alabama and Ole Miss, LSU has Alabama and Texas, and so forth. So what stands now is just a sequencing snapshot.

Right now, Boise State isn’t the top G6 team; Tulsa is. Tulsa controls their own destiny at this point, and would be better served, if they beat Arkansas this week, as a 12-1 team versus Boise State as a 12-1 team. Boise is going to need some luck, Michigan to keep winning, Oregon to have a good year, and for themselves to beat Western Michigan ~17+ points this week in order to leapfrog Tulsa.
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According to the AP Boise is the highest ranked G6 team, although I do agree Tulsa deserves to be in over them.

It is almost certainly impossible that the current 12 will be the final 12. This is more about tracking the season as it goes on to see the ebbs and flows of the season and to see what teams will do what.

After this week that top 12 will be way different. As will the week after and the week after that until selection Sunday. This may not give an accurate shot as to what the playoffs will look like but the board will be talking CFP all year anyways so might as well have an official thread tracking the playoff race.

Since we mentioned Louisville getting in at 11-1 One question I would have too is…what if Miami goes 12-0 in the regular season and loses the CCG to Louisville (who finishes 12-1) AND SMU finishes 11-1….does the ACC get 3 bids?
 
If we are a 1 loss team (ND) going into the ACCCG and we lose the ACCCG, I don't think we make the CFP.

If we are a 1 loss team (not ND) going into the ACCG and we lose the ACCCG, we have a slightly better shot, but not sure we get in.

If we are undefeated going into the ACCCG, we are in the CFP.

If we lose 2 and don't make the ACCCG, we're cooked.
 
it’s not ideal that for the second straight year, our conference will have a losing record against the big XII before the end of the regular season. Thankfully the deficit isn’t that bad this year (2-3) compared to last year (1-6 became 3-7 after the postseason).

We overcame our deficit to the SEC (4-6 became 8-6) last year which is good because we’re 0-5 against them currently lol. Thanks, a bunch NC State.

Right now you’ll start to see statistics that show our conference having the least amount of out of conference wins. Thats not true. This website has archival records and they include the revamped pac 12 as part of the power conference opponents; due to history. So the B1G, XII, and lesser extent the SEC are boosted by their pac 12 opponents.

2026 College Football Conference Records - topdan.com

Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2026 college football season.
topdan.com topdan.com


The B1G is struggling mightily OOC this year.

B1G is 2-7 against P4 teams
XII is 5-7 against P4 teams
ACC is 6-9 against P4 teams
SEC is 10-2 against p4 teams

ACC is 0-5 against the SEC, 2-3 against XII, and 4-1 against B1G. The ACC will have an opportunity to close the gap at the end of the year as four ACC teams annually play four SEC teams I.e. GT, Clemson, FSU, and Louisville.
 
Give me a bye. The stretch we had to go through last playoffs was brutal. Add a potential ACCCG on top of it, and it would be a lot.

Indiana had no trouble handling Bama last year after a bye. And like someone alluded to, too small of a sample size to think it’s an actual trend. Give the team some rest after ACCCG and start off with the quarterfinals.
 
Hot take: I would rather not get a BYE in the playoffs
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The high seed gets to pick the location after round 1. One of the semi final games is in Miami. Miami needs to be 1 to guarantee that. I want them to be #1. You would have a bye week, a game in Atlanta, and a home game before the NC.

Also, I understand that history MAY suggest that teams don't fare well after the bye week but it's insane to me that anybody would want to play another game over an automatic "win" to advance. Mensah, Mali, whoever could get hurt in an extra game. A million things could happen.

You don't want to play more games when somebody is handing you a spot in the next round. I don't care what people think. It's like if somebody wanted to give you a million dollars or pick between a coin flip of $0 or a million and you pick the coin flip.

This idea that you could come out flat is not nearly as problematic as the fact that you could easily lose the prior week. I'd rather take my chances with being flat.
 
305407cane said:
Louisville at 11-2 with a Charlotte loss is the same resume as byu last year. Fwiw
Click to expand...

Have to think if they are 11-1 with the only loss to Ole Miss going into Charlotte, they would likely be ranked within the top 12 (unlike BYU iirc), probably even higher
 
hurricaneman said:
The high seed gets to pick the location after round 1. One of the semi final games is in Miami. Miami needs to be 1 to guarantee that. I want them to be #1. You would have a bye week, a game in Atlanta, and a home game before the NC.

Also, I understand that history MAY suggest that teams don't fare well after the bye week but it's insane to me that anybody would want to play another game over an automatic "win" to advance. Mensah, Mali, whoever could get hurt in an extra game. A million things could happen.

You don't want to play more games when somebody is handing you a spot in the next round. I don't care what people think. It's like if somebody wanted to give you a million dollars or pick between a coin flip of $0 or a million and you pick the coin flip.

This idea that you could come out flat is not nearly as problematic as the fact that you could easily lose the prior week. I'd rather take my chances with being flat.
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Yea I am with you totally. There is no way I wouldn't want a bye. At this point all these teams are good and could easily lose one of these games or like you said someone getting hurt as well.
 
StevoBevo said:
Since we mentioned Louisville getting in at 11-1 One question I would have too is…what if Miami goes 12-0 in the regular season and loses the CCG to Louisville (who finishes 12-1) AND SMU finishes 11-1….does the ACC get 3 bids?
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Well it depends on other teams’ records but it’s not impossible. That’d mean ND has at least two losses. If they won all their other games, they’d still have a chance, especially with that new rule.

If BYU is a 12-1, XII champ, whose only loss is to ND, then ND would have a stronger claim versus ND beating a 9-3 BYU team.

The SEC’s OOC dominance and the B1G’s lack of OOC victories will help and hurt those respective conferences.

Still too many unknowns though as far as G6 goes and conference play. Texas tech has a tough three week window where they play Arizona, Oklahoma state and WVU in consecutive weekends. Outside of that, their path to the CCG is super easy.

Houston was a tuff win for them. Last year, when TT lost to Arizona State, ASU had Sam Leavitt and raleek brown plus Jordan Tyson.

Utah and BYU play each other, so that’s a humongous game. And Oklahoma state’s loss to Tulsa doesn’t look bad if Tulsa goes 11-1 or 12-0.

So gotta let it play out. We have thirty five undefeated teams rn; that’ll be cut down tremendously on Saturday
 
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