2021 Recruiting Class Countdown: #15-11

Loving all the feedback and opinions.

In many ways I felt like I might honestly be too high on Brinson. He certainly wasn’t the dominant force of his team like you often see with top-150 WR’s.

His own team preferred slot WR’s and scheming to get the ball to other YAC receivers with nowhere near the talent of Brinson. That certainly impacted me as I watched down-to-down of him.

Being an EE will help him. I hope he turns into an AA, but I obviously didn’t see him that way.
 
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Loving all the feedback and opinions.

In many ways I felt like I might honestly be too high on Brinson. He certainly wasn’t the dominant force of his team like you often see with top-150 WR’s.

His own team preferred slot WR’s and scheming to get the ball to other YAC receivers with nowhere near the talent of Brinson. That certainly impacted me as I watched down-to-down of him.

Being an EE will help him. I hope he turns into an AA, but I obviously didn’t see him that way.
His quarterback also was not very good
 
I don’t love our DEs class.

Ishmael does seem to have the physical upside that we’ve had success with in our DEs, though. Looks a ways away from contributing which is a luxury we can afford usually.

I love Davis as an athlete, but his physical limitations are the hurdle. That being said, we’ve had success with smaller DEs before. I’d love a Trent Harris type impact from him.
 
@Lance Roffers, I saw the same issues with our DEs you see. Really don't like Ishmael's grab-tackles, hope that gets corrected quickly. Davis is a tweener which always has me jittery as we've been terrible at developing those well. Both have Miami talent.

In addition to Melo being too low. I think Smith is too low. As much as I like some of the other guys still not ranked (whom you will subsequently rank higher than him), these two are better.

Going by your definition of 8-10, both Melo and Smith are 9+ IMHO.
...
8. NFL Draft pick, All-Conference potential
9. 1st team All-Conference potential
10. All-American talent
It cannot be the case that Brinson and Smith are both 9+ kids on a scale of 1-10. Call them what you want. They're both top 30 WR recruits in the country. FSU and Clemson signed WRs higher rated on 247. The word 'potential' may confuse people in the number ranking here but just step back and think about it. What's the chance that each of those guys is a NFL draft pick? 50%? Less probably. They're 7-8s, not 9-10s.
 
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Here's how I'd figure the number tiers work:

10 is like a 5* - a force function rating. There are only 22 AAs (excluding kickers and ST). (44 if you count second team.) I'd go with a round 25 as the number of 10s, consistent with 5* definition of some sites.

9 is defined as first team all conference. There are 5 major conferences so that's about 110 kids, but you have to subtract out the 25 10s (overlap), so there should be about 85 9s.

8 is defined as NFL draft potential. That's about 225 kids a year. Subtract out the 25 and 85 above and you should have about 110 8s. That's nationally.

That's the top 225 kids in the country. If the rankings work, then the ACC can't have more than its share of them.
 
I'm working on my own class breakdown and instead of arbitrary quantitative scoring constructs and numerical rankings it will be geared toward forecasting roles and outcomes, tiered by projected impact.

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I’m also working on my class breakdown, mainly based on what I’m feeling in my plums
 
Loving all the feedback and opinions.

In many ways I felt like I might honestly be too high on Brinson. He certainly wasn’t the dominant force of his team like you often see with top-150 WR’s.

His own team preferred slot WR’s and scheming to get the ball to other YAC receivers with nowhere near the talent of Brinson. That certainly impacted me as I watched down-to-down of him.

Being an EE will help him. I hope he turns into an AA, but I obviously didn’t see him that way.
Yea Your 1000-% correct
But you know we gotta hype up Brinson to take the sting off the real miss
The guy we needed was brooks, man i remember him being on campus allot just couldn’t close the deal
We won’t be truly back until we keep more of these kids than we lose
 
Davis to me just looks like a baller. So at which position does he have the higher ceiling - Lb'er or DE? This one's on the staff to make the right call. If the physical limitations are too prevalent, do you keep him at DE to be a contributor in a rotation, or teach him to play LB? I just see a seek and destroy type. Can't imagine that he couldn't become impactful at LB. I know the staff sees another Roche, but don't etch it in stone.
 
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Miami signed 21 players in the early signing period and it looks to be a really strong class. Everyone loves a list, so I decided to watch a full game of every recruit and then rank them. A few caveats: 1. I’m not ranking the kicker, because frankly, I’m not a kicker expert. Safe to say he’s a great kicking prospect and he probably starts as a freshman. 2. Someone has to populate every spot on the list. Someone has to be last. Someone has to be 17th etc. This is a good recruiting class and some good recruits are going in at these lower rankings. 3. I’ve been wrong before and some of the players ranked at the bottom will prove me wrong and some at the top probably will as well.

Methodology
  • Linear Speed- How fast is the recruit in a straight line compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Corey Flagg would be a 5 for linear speed at ILB etc.
  • Agility- Ability to change directions compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. DJ Ivey would be a 5 for agility at CB.
  • Frame- Prospects frame compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Nesta Silvera would be a 5 for frame at DT.
  • Potential- With average development in a P5 program, what is the ultimate potential of a prospect compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. N’Kosi Perry would be a 5 for potential at QB.
The List
15. Jabari Ishmael
- DE, 6-5, 210, Christopher Columbus (Miami, Florida) #239 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 6, Frame- 7, Potential- 6

Strengths: As Miami discovered with their pursuit of Greg Rousseau, long, athletic basketball players represent a great starter kit for pass rushers. Add to it that the player is athletic enough to fill a S/LB/DE mashup role for a team like Christopher Columbus and the potential is great for Ishmael. For such a slight build, he does bring a decent amount of power in his hands already and should be able to unlock football power in the future with weight work and technique development. Here he puts a blocker on his back.
View attachment 143256

Opportunities: Right now he is a linear athlete who flies too far upfield and leaves rushing lanes for the QB or an area to step up. In the picture above you can see his landmark is too far upfield as opposed to flattening his rush out like the other rusher has done. He does not have a pass rush plan where he is able to string moves together or use counters as a way to offset his upfield rush. He shows the hips to change directions, so the agility is there, he just doesn’t play with it on the field.

Would like to see him play with more power and be an impactful tackler. Here he simply leans on the RB who shucks him and breaks this tackle easily.
View attachment 143258

He also plays tentative on tape. Often times needing to “see” the play to attack the play. He tends to be a step late for this reason. See ball, chase ball as an edge defender and doesn’t make enough plays. Not sure if this is lack of instincts or if he has been coached to do one thing on each play and that’s it. This picture he runs right by the ball carrier without seeing it is a handoff. As the edge contain player to that side, he gives up a big play because he didn’t see it.
View attachment 143259

Overall: Columbus did Ishmael no favors in his development, as they asked him to do a lot of coverage responsibilities as an overhang defender, flat defender, hook defender using his length to scare high school QB’s into other throws. Ishmael is a player with a huge variance of outcomes and could transfer out in a few years after he is unable to crack the two-deep or he could fill out his frame, learn a pass rush plan, and terrorize ACC OL for several years. He has a strong background and is reputed to be a very hard worker as the son of a strength coach. Weak year for pass rushers and Miami takes a chance of a local recruit.

14. Thomas Davis- DE, 6-1, 235, Lowndes (Valdosta, GA) #513 (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 8, Frame- 4, Potential- 7

Strengths: Davis is a lunch pail type on the DL who has produced at a powerhouse Georgia program. He is explosive and powerful with heavy hands and excellent grip strength, showing an ability steer OL and then release and make a play on the ball carrier.

Versatile player who some believe has the ability to play OLB at a high level. He's strong with his hand down or on his feet and does an excellent job of setting an edge and understanding which shoulder to attack to maintain leverage. A high-IQ football player used to winning.

Opportunities: There is no getting around his lack of length will impact him as he goes against higher caliber OT's. While he is quick and explosive, he also leaves his chest open for punches too often for my liking.

His frame limits his overall ceiling.

He has a tendency to duck his head at the snap and fire into his gap without any regard for maintaining integrity against the run. He will give up some plays in his area if he doesn't break this habit.

Overall: Davis needs to be protected in a one-gap, penetrating system that allows him to get upfield and cause havoc. Know anyone who runs a system like that? Perfect scheme fit who is versatile with the speed and quickness to fill a pass rush role early in his career. Might top out at 250-255 and always be lighter than you'd like, but he's well-built and smart. Has an explosive first step and can threaten an OT outside immediately, which allows him to use his excellent agility to cross their face and get back inside.

Despite the fact his frame is sub-optimal, I found myself really enjoying watching him play football.

13. Tyler Johnson- LB, 6-2, 200, Miami Killian (Miami, Florida) #528 overall (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 7, Frame- 7, Potential- 7

Strengths: Johnson has outstanding length and a frame to grow into a prototypical NFL LB. Long strides chew up ground and give the illusion he isn’t moving as fast as he is. Versatile player has experience playing the overhang backer or as a rush end. Effort player who is always moving. Has initial burst to penetrate gaps and get into backfield as a blitzer.

Odd to see a play where he gives up a TD highlighted, but he has the athleticism and skill to cover a WR 1-on-1 from a SAM LB spot and it took a perfect play to complete it.
View attachment 143261

Opportunities: Because of the way he was used in high school, he will have to learn to play off-ball LB, which requires the defender to read keys and play two-ways on each play (run fits and coverage responsibilities on every play). Lithe player at the moment, who is sticky on blocks. Needs to learn to disengage and work through trash more efficiently. Tackling technique needs work as he is a bit of a shoulder hitter at the moment. Here he is missing a tackle in the open field on a kickoff.
View attachment 143262

Overall: The range, length, and frame of Johnson give you a ball of clay to dream on. There is a lot of projection here, but I know the coaches secretly loved Tyler Johnson at Paradise Camp in 2019 and felt like he was the best LB there. He’s not a player who will play immediately other than on special teams, but in year two if he works hard in the weight room, he could carve out a role on the two-deep and improve the length and range of the unit.

12. Romello Brinson- WR, 6-2, 180, Miami Northwestern (Miami, FL) #139 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 6, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: For a skinny kid he runs with some toughness. Not the type who will simply fall over at first sign of contact.

Tracking skills are well above-average. Has a knack for finishing deep shots and making explosive plays.

His frame is the type that can end up being an NFL prototype. Long limbed with good-sized hands he maintains his ability to sink his hips. Extremely flexible athlete who is loose.

Opportunities: Brinson is very smooth on a football field, with the ability to make cuts and keep his speed throughout a route, but he is not a burner. He’s not overly sudden, either. Because of this, he will have to learn to get off press coverage at the college level.

Routes lack polish. If you’re running a bang-8, the bang needs to be at 8-yards and not sort of at 7. Has the smooth hips to be an excellent route runner by the time he leaves Miami, but is not a finished product and has much to learn.

Overall: Athleticism matters in college football. I can show definitively that it matters for all but a few positions to have elite athleticism leads to higher success. One of the few positions that isn’t really true is WR. Brinson has excelled in every season against excellent competition. Brinson’s ability to extend a defense and make catches for explosive plays is something this offense lacks. While he might not be a world-class athlete, he has excellent spatial awareness and can catch the ball while being pressured. He has the ability to make everything look easy and is so smooth he is creating separation routinely.

I like his overall potential and if he’s a worker he has a chance to be an excellent outside college WR.

11. Chase Smith- Striker, 6-3, 190, Melbourne Senior (Melbourne, FL) #292 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 8, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: This kid looks like he was built in a lab to play the striker position. Long arms, big hands, long legs with big feet, he has a frame that can carry 225 pounds and not lose his speed.

Being a receiver on the offensive side of the ball he does a good job of finding the ball and finishing the play. There is such a big difference between tipping a pass and knocking it down, or going up and snatching the ball and finishing the play. Smith is adept at finishing the play. This play here is a direct result of tools and acumen coming together to equal performance. As the game evolves into RPO/Play-action death for defenses, having long players to clog throwing lanes who can finish a play are worth their weight in gold.
View attachment 143263

Comfort in coverage is another strength for Smith. This play is difficult for an overhang defender who lines up on the LOS and has to drop at snap. He’s in man coverage here and does an excellent job of locating the slot and mirroring his route. He looks at him first rather than just dropping. If he drops deep and the route is a stick route or an outbreaking route he can’t cover it. Here he gets underneath the receiver and then stays on his inside hip as he goes to the post and then locates the QB after he gets into the route. Really a high-level pass coverage technique for a HS player.
View attachment 143264

The straight-line speed to find a ball-carrier and get to his run lane is impressive. This kid is a high-level athlete who can really make plays.

Opportunities: Smith really wants to run around traffic and be clean. He doesn’t handle traffic and trash well and as a striker he will have to deal with bodies around him often- especially on outside zone runs that college offenses are employing more and more often.

While he does a good job locating the ball, I wouldn’t call him overly physical as a tackler. He needs to add weight and strength to hold up in the run game.

Has basically no pass rush plan at the moment. He is fairly linear and wants to attack right at the snap. Because of this, he can prone to falling for eye candy and running straight at the decoy rather than staying with gap integrity. Has the length and athleticism to be a menace of read-option plays on the edge if he becomes a bit more disciplined.

Overall: I read my notes, watch some more of Smith and ask myself why he isn’t in the top-10 of recruits. It’s a testament to the strength of the overall class that I’m not forcing this kid somewhere into the top-10. He’s a plus-athlete, plus-framed player with playmaking skills. If the coaching staff unlocks his physicality and improves his diagnostic skills in the run game we are looking at a star. Really like Chase Smith and his potential.

Next up: The top-10!
Gotta admit @Lance Roffers , you kind of threw me here. Mello and Chase that low? And you're higher on Tyler Johnson than I am. But honestly, it's mostly b/c I hate taking HS pass rushers and signing them to be traditional LBs. One who is freak athlete once in awhile OK, but we seem to make a practice of it.

And if you're running our defense, do you put Davis at DE or LB? Thought early on we were recruiting him as a LB, and his HS team moving him there this season just solidified that I thought. Then I realized late in the process we were looking at him as a DE...just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. To me he's another guy built like the LBs we want to have one day. Risky for the kid too...he has a real chance to be an also-ran over the course of his career here, as his frame just doesn't match up well with what we want at DE imo. Better long run for him to play OLB in a 3-4 but what do I know.
 
Davis to me just looks like a baller. So at which position does he have the higher ceiling - Lb'er or DE? This one's on the staff to make the right call. If the physical limitations are too prevalent, do you keep him at DE to be a contributor in a rotation, or teach him to play LB? I just see a seek and destroy type. Can't imagine that he couldn't become impactful at LB. I know the staff sees another Roche, but don't etch it in stone.
I'm not sure we have much of a history of teaching kids LB instincts. Not sure anyone does. It's a position where instincts count for a lot. That's the table stakes. If you have them, yes, you can learn a lot and teach the position. But if you don't, it's not at all clear you can teach the starting point (instincts). We've had a lot of great athletes at the position who didn't end up great LBs. And the best LBs we've had at the position were pretty darn solid from the get go.
 
Best news of the thread for me is that @Lance Roffers thinks McLaughlin is a top 10 kid in this class.
I'm skeptical, btw. But will be happy if he's right.

On his clips, it's clear he finishes his blocks. He's tall, gets some drive. All nice ... but harder to tell how he'll against top competition that is fast and strong. He looks like a really good raw OL prospect with the size and attitude you can't coach. But top 10 in this class means not just high ceiling but low floor, IMO. I can't tell on this one. But then OL are always hard to predict unless they're obvious.
Yeah I’ve been so completely wrong so many times about OL that I don’t even try anymore

I know it’s something you’ve constantly touched on in the background of the recruiting debates because I’ve always been thinking the same thing

so I had my eye on this kid right away like this could really help us if he pans out
 
I'm not sure we have much of a history of teaching kids LB instincts. Not sure anyone does. It's a position where instincts count for a lot. That's the table stakes. If you have them, yes, you can learn a lot and teach the position. But if you don't, it's not at all clear you can teach the starting point (instincts). We've had a lot of great athletes at the position who didn't end up great LBs. And the best LBs we've had at the position were pretty darn solid from the get go.
Kid was moved back to DE because of 'need' on HS team, not because of his ineffectiveness at LB. Didn't see a lot, but what I saw certainly looked better than what we trotted out at LB last season. Hazard to guess he could be more impactful immediately than the other two LB's we brought in. But wil we ever find out?
 
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Yeah I’ve been so completely wrong so many times about OL that I don’t even try anymore

I know it’s something you’ve constantly touched on in the background of the recruiting debates because I’ve always been thinking the same thing

so I had my eye on this kid right away like this could really help us if he pans out
Yep. There are some kids on OL who pass the 'grandma' test. You see them and you're like 'wow, that's an OL!' And IMO they're always really good - whatever you call that perspective ... it translates. Flowers was that. Orlando Franklin was. Leatherwood was. But the guys who you look at and are trying to project, forget it for me on OL, I've learned I can't predict that. I suspect it's because most of the things you need to know are about the kid's attitude, not their film. You're projecting their physical development and toughness, mostly.

The one guy I can say I was not right on is Donaldson - I thought he'd be close to Leatherwood. But if you don't control your physique at that size, it just won't work.
 
Kid was moved back to DE because of 'need' on HS team, not because of his ineffectiveness at LB. Didn't see a lot, but what I saw certainly looked better than what we trotted out at LB last season. Hazard to guess he could be more impactful immediately than the other two LB's we brought in. But wil we ever find out?
I didn't say he was ineffective, to be clear. Maybe he has 'lb instincts', maybe not. It's knowable for someone who looks at film if he has it from the spot and sees him live. I don't have evidence of it either way. My main point is LB is a position where instincts matter a lot. Probably the most of any position. QB is about processing, LB is about reacting. Maybe safety is a bit of both.
 
Yep. There are some kids on OL who pass the 'grandma' test. You see them and you're like 'wow, that's an OL!' And IMO they're always really good - whatever you call that perspective ... it translates. Flowers was that. Orlando Franklin was. Leatherwood was. But the guys who you look at and are trying to project, forget it for me on OL, I've learned I can't predict that. I suspect it's because most of the things you need to know are about the kid's attitude, not their film. You're projecting their physical development and toughness, mostly.

The one guy I can say I was not right on is Donaldson - I thought he'd be close to Leatherwood. But if you don't control your physique at that size, it just won't work.
And their appetite to work ethic ratio.
 
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I'd like to know your evaluation of Pat Payton. IMO we let the best pass rusher in South Florida go to FSU, because Ishmael's Dad is on staff. I hope I am so wrong on this. I think a lot of people will be surprised to see Brinson that low.
More to it than that. Also to continue making in roads at Columbus.
 
I think you've been way low on Ryan Rodriguez...and now Romello Brinson.
I have been watching Brinson play at Traz since 10th grade. IMHO, Brinson is legitimately tall and very fast. Brinson has a knack for making big plays. He attacks the ball. IMHO, Brinson is one of the best WRs in Florida, maybe the entire country. I see him as a freshman who could play right away.

Brinson is an early enrollee. Maybe I am wrong, but we will see what he can do this Spring and Fall
 
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