2021 Recruiting Class Countdown: #15-11

2021 Recruiting Class Countdown: #15-11

Lance Roffers
Lance Roffers
Miami signed 21 players in the early signing period and it looks to be a really strong class. Everyone loves a list, so I decided to watch a full game of every recruit and then rank them. A few caveats: 1. I’m not ranking the kicker, because frankly, I’m not a kicker expert. Safe to say he’s a great kicking prospect and he probably starts as a freshman. 2. Someone has to populate every spot on the list. Someone has to be last. Someone has to be 17th etc. This is a good recruiting class and some good recruits are going in at these lower rankings. 3. I’ve been wrong before and some of the players ranked at the bottom will prove me wrong and some at the top probably will as well.

Methodology
  • Linear Speed- How fast is the recruit in a straight line compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Corey Flagg would be a 5 for linear speed at ILB etc.
  • Agility- Ability to change directions compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. DJ Ivey would be a 5 for agility at CB.
  • Frame- Prospects frame compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Nesta Silvera would be a 5 for frame at DT.
  • Potential- With average development in a P5 program, what is the ultimate potential of a prospect compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. N’Kosi Perry would be a 5 for potential at QB.
The List
15. Jabari Ishmael
- DE, 6-5, 210, Christopher Columbus (Miami, Florida) #239 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 6, Frame- 7, Potential- 6

Strengths: As Miami discovered with their pursuit of Greg Rousseau, long, athletic basketball players represent a great starter kit for pass rushers. Add to it that the player is athletic enough to fill a S/LB/DE mashup role for a team like Christopher Columbus and the potential is great for Ishmael. For such a slight build, he does bring a decent amount of power in his hands already and should be able to unlock football power in the future with weight work and technique development. Here he puts a blocker on his back.
Ishmael.png


Opportunities: Right now he is a linear athlete who flies too far upfield and leaves rushing lanes for the QB or an area to step up. In the picture above you can see his landmark is too far upfield as opposed to flattening his rush out like the other rusher has done. He does not have a pass rush plan where he is able to string moves together or use counters as a way to offset his upfield rush. He shows the hips to change directions, so the agility is there, he just doesn’t play with it on the field.

Would like to see him play with more power and be an impactful tackler. Here he simply leans on the RB who shucks him and breaks this tackle easily.
Ishmael- B.png


He also plays tentative on tape. Often times needing to “see” the play to attack the play. He tends to be a step late for this reason. See ball, chase ball as an edge defender and doesn’t make enough plays. Not sure if this is lack of instincts or if he has been coached to do one thing on each play and that’s it. This picture he runs right by the ball carrier without seeing it is a handoff. As the edge contain player to that side, he gives up a big play because he didn’t see it.
Ishmael- A.PNG


Overall: Columbus did Ishmael no favors in his development, as they asked him to do a lot of coverage responsibilities as an overhang defender, flat defender, hook defender using his length to scare high school QB’s into other throws. Ishmael is a player with a huge variance of outcomes and could transfer out in a few years after he is unable to crack the two-deep or he could fill out his frame, learn a pass rush plan, and terrorize ACC OL for several years. He has a strong background and is reputed to be a very hard worker as the son of a strength coach. Weak year for pass rushers and Miami takes a chance of a local recruit.

14. Thomas Davis- DE, 6-1, 235, Lowndes (Valdosta, GA) #513 (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 8, Frame- 4, Potential- 7

Strengths: Davis is a lunch pail type on the DL who has produced at a powerhouse Georgia program. He is explosive and powerful with heavy hands and excellent grip strength, showing an ability steer OL and then release and make a play on the ball carrier.

Versatile player who some believe has the ability to play OLB at a high level. He's strong with his hand down or on his feet and does an excellent job of setting an edge and understanding which shoulder to attack to maintain leverage. A high-IQ football player used to winning.

Opportunities: There is no getting around his lack of length will impact him as he goes against higher caliber OT's. While he is quick and explosive, he also leaves his chest open for punches too often for my liking.

His frame limits his overall ceiling.

He has a tendency to duck his head at the snap and fire into his gap without any regard for maintaining integrity against the run. He will give up some plays in his area if he doesn't break this habit.

Overall: Davis needs to be protected in a one-gap, penetrating system that allows him to get upfield and cause havoc. Know anyone who runs a system like that? Perfect scheme fit who is versatile with the speed and quickness to fill a pass rush role early in his career. Might top out at 250-255 and always be lighter than you'd like, but he's well-built and smart. Has an explosive first step and can threaten an OT outside immediately, which allows him to use his excellent agility to cross their face and get back inside.

Despite the fact his frame is sub-optimal, I found myself really enjoying watching him play football.

13. Tyler Johnson- LB, 6-2, 200, Miami Killian (Miami, Florida) #528 overall (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 7, Frame- 7, Potential- 7

Strengths: Johnson has outstanding length and a frame to grow into a prototypical NFL LB. Long strides chew up ground and give the illusion he isn’t moving as fast as he is. Versatile player has experience playing the overhang backer or as a rush end. Effort player who is always moving. Has initial burst to penetrate gaps and get into backfield as a blitzer.

Odd to see a play where he gives up a TD highlighted, but he has the athleticism and skill to cover a WR 1-on-1 from a SAM LB spot and it took a perfect play to complete it.
Tyler Johnson.png


Opportunities: Because of the way he was used in high school, he will have to learn to play off-ball LB, which requires the defender to read keys and play two-ways on each play (run fits and coverage responsibilities on every play). Lithe player at the moment, who is sticky on blocks. Needs to learn to disengage and work through trash more efficiently. Tackling technique needs work as he is a bit of a shoulder hitter at the moment. Here he is missing a tackle in the open field on a kickoff.
Tyler Johnson- 1.png


Overall: The range, length, and frame of Johnson give you a ball of clay to dream on. There is a lot of projection here, but I know the coaches secretly loved Tyler Johnson at Paradise Camp in 2019 and felt like he was the best LB there. He’s not a player who will play immediately other than on special teams, but in year two if he works hard in the weight room, he could carve out a role on the two-deep and improve the length and range of the unit.

12. Romello Brinson- WR, 6-2, 180, Miami Northwestern (Miami, FL) #139 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 6, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: For a skinny kid he runs with some toughness. Not the type who will simply fall over at first sign of contact.

Tracking skills are well above-average. Has a knack for finishing deep shots and making explosive plays.

His frame is the type that can end up being an NFL prototype. Long limbed with good-sized hands he maintains his ability to sink his hips. Extremely flexible athlete who is loose.

Opportunities: Brinson is very smooth on a football field, with the ability to make cuts and keep his speed throughout a route, but he is not a burner. He’s not overly sudden, either. Because of this, he will have to learn to get off press coverage at the college level.

Routes lack polish. If you’re running a bang-8, the bang needs to be at 8-yards and not sort of at 7. Has the smooth hips to be an excellent route runner by the time he leaves Miami, but is not a finished product and has much to learn.

Overall: Athleticism matters in college football. I can show definitively that it matters for all but a few positions to have elite athleticism leads to higher success. One of the few positions that isn’t really true is WR. Brinson has excelled in every season against excellent competition. Brinson’s ability to extend a defense and make catches for explosive plays is something this offense lacks. While he might not be a world-class athlete, he has excellent spatial awareness and can catch the ball while being pressured. He has the ability to make everything look easy and is so smooth he is creating separation routinely.

I like his overall potential and if he’s a worker he has a chance to be an excellent outside college WR.

11. Chase Smith- Striker, 6-3, 190, Melbourne Senior (Melbourne, FL) #292 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 8, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: This kid looks like he was built in a lab to play the striker position. Long arms, big hands, long legs with big feet, he has a frame that can carry 225 pounds and not lose his speed.

Being a receiver on the offensive side of the ball he does a good job of finding the ball and finishing the play. There is such a big difference between tipping a pass and knocking it down, or going up and snatching the ball and finishing the play. Smith is adept at finishing the play. This play here is a direct result of tools and acumen coming together to equal performance. As the game evolves into RPO/Play-action death for defenses, having long players to clog throwing lanes who can finish a play are worth their weight in gold.
Chase Smith.PNG


Comfort in coverage is another strength for Smith. This play is difficult for an overhang defender who lines up on the LOS and has to drop at snap. He’s in man coverage here and does an excellent job of locating the slot and mirroring his route. He looks at him first rather than just dropping. If he drops deep and the route is a stick route or an outbreaking route he can’t cover it. Here he gets underneath the receiver and then stays on his inside hip as he goes to the post and then locates the QB after he gets into the route. Really a high-level pass coverage technique for a HS player.
Chase-2.PNG


The straight-line speed to find a ball-carrier and get to his run lane is impressive. This kid is a high-level athlete who can really make plays.

Opportunities: Smith really wants to run around traffic and be clean. He doesn’t handle traffic and trash well and as a striker he will have to deal with bodies around him often- especially on outside zone runs that college offenses are employing more and more often.

While he does a good job locating the ball, I wouldn’t call him overly physical as a tackler. He needs to add weight and strength to hold up in the run game.

Has basically no pass rush plan at the moment. He is fairly linear and wants to attack right at the snap. Because of this, he can prone to falling for eye candy and running straight at the decoy rather than staying with gap integrity. Has the length and athleticism to be a menace of read-option plays on the edge if he becomes a bit more disciplined.

Overall: I read my notes, watch some more of Smith and ask myself why he isn’t in the top-10 of recruits. It’s a testament to the strength of the overall class that I’m not forcing this kid somewhere into the top-10. He’s a plus-athlete, plus-framed player with playmaking skills. If the coaching staff unlocks his physicality and improves his diagnostic skills in the run game we are looking at a star. Really like Chase Smith and his potential.

Next up: The top-10!
 

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Comments (78)

I thought Davis was recruited to play LBer not DE.
and to add on to what DTP said, he mainly played DE in HS and that is where we recruited him, his senior year in HS he played LB off the ball a lot and had a lot of people questioning where he would end up due to size, seems the staff is all in on him starting at DE, him being on campus already is good.

We only took two LB, Johnson and Troutman. I know, I know, LB play sucks, but our issue isnt quantity, it is quality. Word is McCloud is going to DE but even taking him out, Jennings, Steed, Flagg, TAC, Huff, Brooks, and now Johnson and Troutman, we have 8 players for 2 spots, 4 of which are still "freshman".
 
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I'd like to know your evaluation of Pat Payton. IMO we let the best pass rusher in South Florida go to FSU, because Ishmael's Dad is on staff. I hope I am so wrong on this. I think a lot of people will be surprised to see Brinson that low.
 
Not liking what I am hearing from Brinson as far as breakdown. Tell me this isnt another Aldarius Johnson situation where he struggled to take his game to the next level in college because he wasnt a particulary great athlete..?

Tyler Johnson being this high wont excite the folks who wanted him thrown out the class. Chase Smith sounds super boom or super bust as well. You were spot on with TD and SI evals.
 
Not liking what I am hearing from Brinson as far as breakdown. Tell me this isnt another Aldarius Johnson situation where he struggled to take his game to the next level in college because he wasnt a particulary great athlete..?

Tyler Johnson being this high wont excite the folks who wanted him thrown out the class. Chase Smith sounds super boom or super bust as well. You were spot on with TD and SI evals.
I didn't read the Brinson summary reminding me of Aldarius. Brinson summary reads to me like he's smooth and plenty athletic for college, just not maybe for the NFL. His route running needs work (he's a HS player), but he makes plays all over the field. Also, Aldarius's issues included focus, commitment and the like, and those aren't being mentioned re Brinson. Aldarius was a bit bigger also. I read Brinson as a very solid college WR prospect who makes plays and can catch in traffic. If that's accurate, that's a solid recruit. The one concern I have is the lack of suddenness comment, because that matters for creating separation.
 
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I'm skeptical, btw. But will be happy if he's right.

On his clips, it's clear he finishes his blocks. He's tall, gets some drive. All nice ... but harder to tell how he'll against top competition that is fast and strong. He looks like a really good raw OL prospect with the size and attitude you can't coach. But top 10 in this class means not just high ceiling but low floor, IMO. I can't tell on this one. But then OL are always hard to predict unless they're obvious.
 
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Found this really interesting. Not questioning, but would be curious to hear more detail.



Athleticism matters in college football. I can show definitively that it matters for all but a few positions to have elite athleticism leads to higher success. One of the few positions that isn’t really true is WR.
 
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Miami signed 21 players in the early signing period and it looks to be a really strong class. Everyone loves a list, so I decided to watch a full game of every recruit and then rank them. A few caveats: 1. I’m not ranking the kicker, because frankly, I’m not a kicker expert. Safe to say he’s a great kicking prospect and he probably starts as a freshman. 2. Someone has to populate every spot on the list. Someone has to be last. Someone has to be 17th etc. This is a good recruiting class and some good recruits are going in at these lower rankings. 3. I’ve been wrong before and some of the players ranked at the bottom will prove me wrong and some at the top probably will as well.

Methodology
  • Linear Speed- How fast is the recruit in a straight line compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Corey Flagg would be a 5 for linear speed at ILB etc.
  • Agility- Ability to change directions compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. DJ Ivey would be a 5 for agility at CB.
  • Frame- Prospects frame compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. Nesta Silvera would be a 5 for frame at DT.
  • Potential- With average development in a P5 program, what is the ultimate potential of a prospect compared to other P5 prospects at that same position. N’Kosi Perry would be a 5 for potential at QB.
The List
15. Jabari Ishmael
- DE, 6-5, 210, Christopher Columbus (Miami, Florida) #239 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 6, Frame- 7, Potential- 6

Strengths: As Miami discovered with their pursuit of Greg Rousseau, long, athletic basketball players represent a great starter kit for pass rushers. Add to it that the player is athletic enough to fill a S/LB/DE mashup role for a team like Christopher Columbus and the potential is great for Ishmael. For such a slight build, he does bring a decent amount of power in his hands already and should be able to unlock football power in the future with weight work and technique development. Here he puts a blocker on his back.
View attachment 143256

Opportunities: Right now he is a linear athlete who flies too far upfield and leaves rushing lanes for the QB or an area to step up. In the picture above you can see his landmark is too far upfield as opposed to flattening his rush out like the other rusher has done. He does not have a pass rush plan where he is able to string moves together or use counters as a way to offset his upfield rush. He shows the hips to change directions, so the agility is there, he just doesn’t play with it on the field.

Would like to see him play with more power and be an impactful tackler. Here he simply leans on the RB who shucks him and breaks this tackle easily.
View attachment 143258

He also plays tentative on tape. Often times needing to “see” the play to attack the play. He tends to be a step late for this reason. See ball, chase ball as an edge defender and doesn’t make enough plays. Not sure if this is lack of instincts or if he has been coached to do one thing on each play and that’s it. This picture he runs right by the ball carrier without seeing it is a handoff. As the edge contain player to that side, he gives up a big play because he didn’t see it.
View attachment 143259

Overall: Columbus did Ishmael no favors in his development, as they asked him to do a lot of coverage responsibilities as an overhang defender, flat defender, hook defender using his length to scare high school QB’s into other throws. Ishmael is a player with a huge variance of outcomes and could transfer out in a few years after he is unable to crack the two-deep or he could fill out his frame, learn a pass rush plan, and terrorize ACC OL for several years. He has a strong background and is reputed to be a very hard worker as the son of a strength coach. Weak year for pass rushers and Miami takes a chance of a local recruit.

14. Thomas Davis- DE, 6-1, 235, Lowndes (Valdosta, GA) #513 (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 8, Frame- 4, Potential- 7

Strengths: Davis is a lunch pail type on the DL who has produced at a powerhouse Georgia program. He is explosive and powerful with heavy hands and excellent grip strength, showing an ability steer OL and then release and make a play on the ball carrier.

Versatile player who some believe has the ability to play OLB at a high level. He's strong with his hand down or on his feet and does an excellent job of setting an edge and understanding which shoulder to attack to maintain leverage. A high-IQ football player used to winning.

Opportunities: There is no getting around his lack of length will impact him as he goes against higher caliber OT's. While he is quick and explosive, he also leaves his chest open for punches too often for my liking.

His frame limits his overall ceiling.

He has a tendency to duck his head at the snap and fire into his gap without any regard for maintaining integrity against the run. He will give up some plays in his area if he doesn't break this habit.

Overall: Davis needs to be protected in a one-gap, penetrating system that allows him to get upfield and cause havoc. Know anyone who runs a system like that? Perfect scheme fit who is versatile with the speed and quickness to fill a pass rush role early in his career. Might top out at 250-255 and always be lighter than you'd like, but he's well-built and smart. Has an explosive first step and can threaten an OT outside immediately, which allows him to use his excellent agility to cross their face and get back inside.

Despite the fact his frame is sub-optimal, I found myself really enjoying watching him play football.

13. Tyler Johnson- LB, 6-2, 200, Miami Killian (Miami, Florida) #528 overall (3-star)

Linear Speed- 7, Agility- 7, Frame- 7, Potential- 7

Strengths: Johnson has outstanding length and a frame to grow into a prototypical NFL LB. Long strides chew up ground and give the illusion he isn’t moving as fast as he is. Versatile player has experience playing the overhang backer or as a rush end. Effort player who is always moving. Has initial burst to penetrate gaps and get into backfield as a blitzer.

Odd to see a play where he gives up a TD highlighted, but he has the athleticism and skill to cover a WR 1-on-1 from a SAM LB spot and it took a perfect play to complete it.
View attachment 143261

Opportunities: Because of the way he was used in high school, he will have to learn to play off-ball LB, which requires the defender to read keys and play two-ways on each play (run fits and coverage responsibilities on every play). Lithe player at the moment, who is sticky on blocks. Needs to learn to disengage and work through trash more efficiently. Tackling technique needs work as he is a bit of a shoulder hitter at the moment. Here he is missing a tackle in the open field on a kickoff.
View attachment 143262

Overall: The range, length, and frame of Johnson give you a ball of clay to dream on. There is a lot of projection here, but I know the coaches secretly loved Tyler Johnson at Paradise Camp in 2019 and felt like he was the best LB there. He’s not a player who will play immediately other than on special teams, but in year two if he works hard in the weight room, he could carve out a role on the two-deep and improve the length and range of the unit.

12. Romello Brinson- WR, 6-2, 180, Miami Northwestern (Miami, FL) #139 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 6, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: For a skinny kid he runs with some toughness. Not the type who will simply fall over at first sign of contact.

Tracking skills are well above-average. Has a knack for finishing deep shots and making explosive plays.

His frame is the type that can end up being an NFL prototype. Long limbed with good-sized hands he maintains his ability to sink his hips. Extremely flexible athlete who is loose.

Opportunities: Brinson is very smooth on a football field, with the ability to make cuts and keep his speed throughout a route, but he is not a burner. He’s not overly sudden, either. Because of this, he will have to learn to get off press coverage at the college level.

Routes lack polish. If you’re running a bang-8, the bang needs to be at 8-yards and not sort of at 7. Has the smooth hips to be an excellent route runner by the time he leaves Miami, but is not a finished product and has much to learn.

Overall: Athleticism matters in college football. I can show definitively that it matters for all but a few positions to have elite athleticism leads to higher success. One of the few positions that isn’t really true is WR. Brinson has excelled in every season against excellent competition. Brinson’s ability to extend a defense and make catches for explosive plays is something this offense lacks. While he might not be a world-class athlete, he has excellent spatial awareness and can catch the ball while being pressured. He has the ability to make everything look easy and is so smooth he is creating separation routinely.

I like his overall potential and if he’s a worker he has a chance to be an excellent outside college WR.

11. Chase Smith- Striker, 6-3, 190, Melbourne Senior (Melbourne, FL) #292 (4-star)

Linear Speed- 8, Agility- 6, Frame- 8, Potential- 7

Strengths: This kid looks like he was built in a lab to play the striker position. Long arms, big hands, long legs with big feet, he has a frame that can carry 225 pounds and not lose his speed.

Being a receiver on the offensive side of the ball he does a good job of finding the ball and finishing the play. There is such a big difference between tipping a pass and knocking it down, or going up and snatching the ball and finishing the play. Smith is adept at finishing the play. This play here is a direct result of tools and acumen coming together to equal performance. As the game evolves into RPO/Play-action death for defenses, having long players to clog throwing lanes who can finish a play are worth their weight in gold.
View attachment 143263

Comfort in coverage is another strength for Smith. This play is difficult for an overhang defender who lines up on the LOS and has to drop at snap. He’s in man coverage here and does an excellent job of locating the slot and mirroring his route. He looks at him first rather than just dropping. If he drops deep and the route is a stick route or an outbreaking route he can’t cover it. Here he gets underneath the receiver and then stays on his inside hip as he goes to the post and then locates the QB after he gets into the route. Really a high-level pass coverage technique for a HS player.
View attachment 143264

The straight-line speed to find a ball-carrier and get to his run lane is impressive. This kid is a high-level athlete who can really make plays.

Opportunities: Smith really wants to run around traffic and be clean. He doesn’t handle traffic and trash well and as a striker he will have to deal with bodies around him often- especially on outside zone runs that college offenses are employing more and more often.

While he does a good job locating the ball, I wouldn’t call him overly physical as a tackler. He needs to add weight and strength to hold up in the run game.

Has basically no pass rush plan at the moment. He is fairly linear and wants to attack right at the snap. Because of this, he can prone to falling for eye candy and running straight at the decoy rather than staying with gap integrity. Has the length and athleticism to be a menace of read-option plays on the edge if he becomes a bit more disciplined.

Overall: I read my notes, watch some more of Smith and ask myself why he isn’t in the top-10 of recruits. It’s a testament to the strength of the overall class that I’m not forcing this kid somewhere into the top-10. He’s a plus-athlete, plus-framed player with playmaking skills. If the coaching staff unlocks his physicality and improves his diagnostic skills in the run game we are looking at a star. Really like Chase Smith and his potential.

Next up: The top-10!

good stuff again!

although, lance, one thing: the Bang-8 is actually run to precisely 7 yards. the "8" is because the post (going all the way back to the original vertical offense passing tree of sid gillman and don coryell) was always the 8 route. The "bang" was the notation that adjusted the stem of the traditional (12 or 15 yd post, depending on the system) .... to 7 yards.

history lesson for the day :cool: :giggle:
 
This class is so strong, you forget how many good football players are in it. For some reason, I always forget about Tyler Johnson and Chase Smith. These 5 will be starters down the road.
 
I think Melo and Garcia are open for debate.

And thats not a knock on Garcia. I was actually one of the few that liked him BEFORE he committed. As 80% of the board didnt even want him lol
That's what makes for a discussion. I think a top QB is critical in every class and it's a huge issue for this program that we haven't had a legit good QB since Dorsey. So I'm not sure Garcia isn't No.1 tbh, but definitely I put him after the local 5*s (not because of their rankings but their talent).

I'd probably have Arroyo, C. Smith and Thad as may next 3. I haven't done the work lance did here so just spouting. Here's my tiering of the kids:

1. Taylor, Williams, Garcia
2. Arroyo, C. Smith, Thad
3. Kinchens, B. Smith, J. George, Brinson
4. Seymour, McLaughlin, Rodriguez, Curtis, Johnson
5. Davis, Haye, Troutman, Brantley, Ishmael

I left Borregales out because the OP did but I'd put him in the second tier with Arroyo et al. - a top kicker is worth a lot and is underappreciated, IMO. I am relying on bloodlines and scouting of others here because I can't confirm what a top HS kicker really looks like but I expect this kid will perform for us and that's a big deal.

I'd have Curtis higher at WR but hard to project the position switch. I put Arroyo 4th and think he can be an AA here.
 
Found this really interesting. Not questioning, but would be curious to hear more detail.



Athleticism matters in college football. I can show definitively that it matters for all but a few positions to have elite athleticism leads to higher success. One of the few positions that isn’t really true is WR.
The critical traits ('table stakes') for a good WR are hands, willingness to fight for ball and make plays in traffic, ability to separate and short area quickness.

The typical measures of athleticism are speed, vertical, maybe strength and shuttle. If a WR has the table stakes, the athletic quotient helps make them more unique. But as between a fast guy without hands or toughness and a tough guy with hands who's just not that fast, it's easy to see who makes for the better WR. Lance Leggett or Elijah Moore?
 
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