23:39
I'm if I'm Mike Norvell if I'm Gus on I believe that if I'm getting those three maybe three or four extra even two extra extra drives at the end of the game I think I can wear this defense out and again they're good they're physical this is going to be a war but I do believe in my offensive line if I'm those guys. And I do believe that that I've got some players to cause some problems for them. And if I can get them moving side to side and I can create some seams, I can cause problems for them. And that's the other thing. If you look at what Notre Dame had the most success with, if you look at what Florida had the most success with, it was all the stuff that's that's the base stuff under Gus Maulzahn, but with less eye candy, with less of the of the horizontal stretch stuff.
There was one reverse that Florida had where if they blocked it well at all, probably scores cuz Miami is so aggressive that you had a guy out there with three guys in front of him and nobody blocked the main the main threat. So, it went down for like a you know, no gain or two yard gain or whatever it was. I don't remember. But all of a sudden, that guy's just he's blocked. If you if you if you block him, you've got a you've got a chance. If if two of those guys if one of if one of the three that are out there to block turns and blocks the most dangerous the most dangerous guy, you got a 50 or 60 yard play. There's another play where they they had a a nice little eye candy thing and they got a back out into the flat and there was nobody within 20 yards of him and that happened to be the one play where there was a a false start. I think it was a receiver that was false start. Florida kept shooting themselves in the foot. You look at that and it was like, oh my goodness, if he if you get the ball out there that that scores that's 60 70 yards.
And the other thing that was obvious is that in those three games, none of those three teams, especially Florida, but Notre Dame as well, and then Miami themselves, none of them have playmakers across the board the way that Florida State does at the skill positions. I think FSU offensively especially has more talent than than Notre Dame has seen at the skill positions this year. They have not faced a Deuce Robinson. They've not even faced a Squirrel White and they certainly haven't seen a Mai Danzy if Danzy can, you know, make sure that he's catching it well. And again, he's a threat on all the Jets and and the reverses and all of that. They've not seen that.
And what I saw on film is essentially Florida State is basically built to to be the worst possible offensive matchup for what Miami likes to do defensively that you could draw up. They are built to stop teams that want to run the ball in traditional fashion and then have a drop back passing game. And Florida dropped back like 25 times. Just standard drop back passes. They did Lagway absolutely no favors. They dropped back against that pair of defensive ends and said, "Come get him." I would be surprised if Florida State drops back more than five times in terms of true dropbacks. There'll be some play action. There will be plenty of that sort of thing. But when they're dropping back, they're they're probably taking a shot. And if they are dropping back where it's, you know, anything else, it's going to probably be play action or just straight quick game. and it's gonna in include some sort of run quarterback run option uh with it as often as not. But you're not going to see, you know, full three-step, which is equivalent to a five-step drop out of shotgun, you know, just standard possession passing game from Florida State all game. You're not going to see that. They're not going to ask their tackles to isolate one-on-one with that pair of defensive ends all game and say, "Yeah, we'll be fine." Instead, they're going to Florida State's going to try to run the football 40 or 50 time, you know, 45 50 times with all sorts of different eye candy and action to create seams and get the ball when they can to those big playmakers on the edge.
One of the other places where my where where uh Notre Dame did the most damage against Miami, especially early, was in the wide receiver screen game. smoke screens, little things out there on, you know, just the constraint plays as Miami loaded the box. They were able to just get the ball out to guys on the on the outside and they had some success with that. And, you know, it's too bad Florida State doesn't do any of that. That's a huge part of what what Gus Malzahn does and what what they're going to going to bring into play here. They want to get guys like Squirrel White and Danzy and those guys their hands on the ball on the outside and say make that guy miss and go make a big play.
55:16
I just see on tape, I see all these places where the matchups and styles make fights where the matchups really favor Florida State. And you know, I was worried in this one again about potentially being a homer, about like, am I just seeing what I want to see on this as a as a former as an alum, as a former player? Am I just seeing what I want to see or, you know, is this what I what I'm actually seeing? So, I sent I sent the all22 film to some guys that I actually respect. It's like, what do you see here? Look at Florida State. Look at Miami. And I got back basically the same stuff I was seeing. It's like, oh wow, Beck's not that good. you know, is anything if you if you force him to make these throws. Wow. I'm surprised that this didn't show up more. And what is Florida doing? And oh man, like Notre Dame had a lot of success at their quarterback run game and that guy that guy's not really an athlete. That that's going to be interesting with Castellanos. Just stuff like that. So, I don't feel so crazy anymore and I'm willing to go on go out on a limb here. I think Florida State wins this football game.
- A Closer Look Reveals Weaknesses: After watching All-22 film of Miami's games against Notre Dame and Florida, Staples' opinion changes. He concludes that Miami is not as good as the Alabama team FSU played earlier.
- The Blueprint to Beat Miami:
- Offensive Aggression: Staples identifies ways FSU's offense, led by Coach Gus Malzahn, is uniquely suited to attack Miami's defense. Miami's aggressive pass rush is predictable, and FSU is perfectly positioned to counter it with quarterback draws and running plays away from the overload.
- Run Defense and Fatigue: Miami's defensive tackles are seen as "jags" (Just A Guy) and not difference-makers. Crucially, Bane and Mesidor played an exhausting number of snaps against better opponents and got tired late in drives.
- Tempo and Volume: Staples advises FSU to increase the tempo and aim to run 80 plays on offense, essentially turning the game into a "track meet" to wear out Miami's defensive front and key defensive ends.
- FSU's Advantage in Skill Position Talent: FSU's offense is described as a "five-tool offense" (or "six-tool" with QB Tommy Castellanos's running ability) due to playmakers like Deuce Robinson, Squirrel White, Mai Danzy, and tight end Pitman. Miami has not faced a team with this level of diverse talent, which can exploit how Miami likes to defend.
- The Florida Game (A Digression): The host frequently uses the Miami vs. Florida game film to illustrate Miami's defense, but also spends significant time criticizing Florida's "shockingly poorly coached" offense and quarterback Lagway, suggesting the Miami defense's success against the Gators was partially due to Florida's mismanagement.
- Prediction Adjustment: The host was initially prepared to predict a Miami win "by 14," but after reviewing the tape, he believes FSU wins 38-31
Score Prediction Summary
Confidence Interval (Score Range)
Scenario Modeling
If Miami starts hot (early 10-point lead):
If Miami starts slow (down at halftime):
If FSU wins turnover battle (2+ TOs):
Final Take
