“It’s Okay to Be Disappointed With Mario Cristobal” - Oregon Writer

[DMoney]

That's the thing with Cristobal, the high level data looks great, 5-1 and ranked #7, but relative to who he's playing, he's getting 60% out of his rosters potential. That loss to Stanford and that near miss by Cal, those looked familiar. That's before we dicsuss how Justin Herbert compares to his NFL output.

He built that unfair roster, though. Oregon was not recruiting at that level before he got there.

And when the talent is equal, his team usually plays its best.

 

[section9]

They shouldn’t be tied with Fresno State mid 4th quarter, needing a goal line stand on the final play against 1-5 Cal, losing to Stanford, up 5 in the 4th against winless Arizona and nearly blowing a 17 pt 4th quarter lead against UCLA just this season.

This. If Oregon makes it into the CFP and runs into Georgia or Bama, they’re going to get completely exposed just as we were in Atlanta in August. You can’t just eke out wins against Little Sisters of The Poor schools in the PAC-12 and pretend that you could go toe-to-toe with Sabag.

 

[fincane]

He built that unfair roster, though. Oregon was not recruiting at that level before he got there.

And when the talent is equal, his team usually plays its best.

The roster doesn't appear all that unfair. You watch them week to week and they look just like any other team in that conference. He's very similar to Tom Herman at Texas. When a big opponent is on the schedule you get his team's best. Unfortunately they can't go to that well every week. And what got Herman fired wasn't his performance in big games it was all the other ones where Texas was expected to win. Fortunately for Mario there is no OU in that conference to be compared to and usually lose to.

 

[Supacane954]

I still dont understand how he didnt win more with Herbert!

 

[canesstevealum08]

He built that unfair roster, though. Oregon was not recruiting at that level before he got there.

And when the talent is equal, his team usually plays its best.

I think the fear is he can take a Clemson 2021 nose dive.

 

[SpikeUM]

Coaches haven’t gotten worse. They have gotten better and so have the players. The difference between teams excluding the elites is much smaller than it used to be. The wide open nature and growth of strategy have made on the fly adjustments beyond critical and the game moves so fast now, most coaches can’t do it.

Saban and the ignoring the SEC cheating is a big problem too. The top 10 rotated way more in the past. Today the top 5 has been entrenched. Standards are unrealistic and there are fewer dream seasons because the talent is being bought and concentrated to protected teams.

Totally agree on the second paragraph, less so on the first. The complexities and therefore the pressure of being a head coach these days are exponentially higher than in the past, so coaches are younger these days and by definition less experienced. Outside of Saban and Mack, there are very few dinosaurs left.

 

[SpikeUM]

He built that unfair roster, though. Oregon was not recruiting at that level before he got there.

And when the talent is equal, his team usually plays its best.

I am not sold on Mario; yes he is a great recruiter, but his teams generally play below their level.

 

[AlexCane]

Coaches haven’t gotten worse. They have gotten better and so have the players. The difference between teams excluding the elites is much smaller than it used to be. The wide open nature and growth of strategy have made on the fly adjustments beyond critical and the game moves so fast now, most coaches can’t do it.

Saban and the ignoring the SEC cheating is a big problem too. The top 10 rotated way more in the past. Today the top 5 has been entrenched. Standards are unrealistic and there are fewer dream seasons because the talent is being bought and concentrated to protected teams.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

Folks here still expect good teams to win 56-7 every week. There is so much parity in college football that unless you're Bama, those lopsided victories are less frequent. I'm not watching Oregon so I have no idea what happens week to week, but it's easy to look at a 34-31 score (like this past weekend) and be underwhelmed. But unless you actually know the rosters of both teams, injuries, etc., it's hard to jump to conclusions from a score.

Look at the ACC now. Let's presume we're a top 15 team. Which of these teams should be just blown out?

Wake
NC State
Clemson
Louisville
FSU
Cuse
BC
Pitt
UVA
UNC
VT
Duke

(And before you mention FSU, they beat UNC and played ND hard.)

So, Duke? Maybe? Apart from that, it's a ton of mediocrity and parity. Any team can scare a hypothetical Miami top 15 team any particular Saturday.

Everyone expects good teams to just lap other teams but I'm just not seeing that in this era of CFB.

 

[DMoney]

You watch them week to week and they look just like any other team in that conference.

He must be overachieving, since he's winning more games than the rest of the teams.

 

[DMoney]

I am not sold on Mario; yes he is a great recruiter, but his teams generally play below their level.

FWIW, they're ranked 9th in the 247 "team talent" ratings and they're ranked 7th on the field.

To me, it's pretty straightforward. He's the most accomplished coach in the picture (strictly on-field results) and his elite recruiting brings the potential for more. Plus, we couldn't even sign him without a commitment to revamp the program. That is a positive impact before he even coaches a game.

 

[fincane]

He must be overachieving, since he's winning more games than the rest of the teams.

He did that once. He didn't do it last year. He was gifted a Pac-12 title game appearance last year because Washington had COVID. Kyle Whittingham has more Pac 12 wins over the same time span anyway. You can back Mario, you can want him here. But he's not the most successful coach in the conference. **** Clay Helton had one less win in conference since Mario got the job before he got fired.

 

[DMoney]

He did that once. He didn't do it last year. He was gifted a Pac-12 title game appearance last year because Washington had COVID. Kyle Whittingham has more Pac 12 wins over the same time span anyway. You can back Mario, you can want him here. But he's not the most successful coach in the conference.

This is wrong. Cristobal has 21 conference wins (including conference championship over Utah), which is more than Whittingham. And Cristobal is 2-0 in title games, while Whittingham is 0-2.

 

[fincane]

This is wrong. Cristobal has 21 conference wins (including conference championship over Utah), which is more than Whittingham. And Cristobal is 2-0 in title games, while Whittingham is 0-2.

He has 19 conference wins. Thats why you included the (). So it isn't wrong. And if we're playing that game he should only have 20 because he shouldn't have been eligible to play in the game last year.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

This is wrong. Cristobal has 21 conference wins (including conference championship over Utah), which is more than Whittingham. And Cristobal is 2-0 in title games, while Whittingham is 0-2.

Only in this fanbase can you go from watching the past 20 years to not wanting Mario Cristobal. As has been said many times here, we really don't deserve nice things.

 

[DMoney]

He has 19 conference wins. Thats why you included the (). So it isn't wrong. And if we're playing that game he should only have 20 because he shouldn't have been eligible to play in the game last year.

Just take the L and stop digging. You said that Whittingham is the "most successful coach in the conference" since Cristobal has been there. That's wrong.

Your argument is that "Whittingham has more conference wins if you don't count his two Ls in the championship and don't count Cristobal's two Ws." Of course, those count. Cristobal has been the most successful coach in the conference.

 

[skeeter]

He's an average coach and very good recruiter
Diaz is a below average coach and a good/but not quite as good as Cristobal recruiter

Why can't both these things be true.

 

[fincane]

Just take the L and stop digging. You said that Whittingham is the "most successful coach in the conference" since Cristobal has been there. That's wrong.

Your argument is that "Whittingham has more conference wins if you don't count his two Ls in the championship and don't count Cristobal's two Ws." Of course, those count. Cristobal has been the most successful coach in the conference.

This started with you saying he wins more games than the others as some quippy remark to his teams constantly playing below their talent level. Trying to give him credit for both his recruiting and yet not knocking him for his team not playing up to their talent level. Meanwhile a guy with far less talent and resources has matched him in wins and the only difference in the total is a game that Cristobal's team shouldn't have been a part of because a better team last year had pandemic issues.

But lets lean on the two conference titles one being undeserved and in a season where he lost to two teams who combined to win three games. Two of them being against Oregon.

 

[DMoney]

Meanwhile a guy with far less talent and resources has matched him in wins and the only difference in the total is a game that Cristobal's team shouldn't have been a part of because a better team last year had pandemic issues..

Wittingham's 2019 team was his best team since they joined the conference. He had 7 draft picks, plus Tyler Huntley.

Mario beat him, won the conference title, won the Rose Bowl and finished Top 5. And since then, he signed two monster classes. He's been the most successful coach in the Pac-12, on and off the field. There is really no credible argument otherwise.

The guy isn't perfect, but there is a reason it would cost huge money to sign him. His market value is high based on the performance of his teams and his ability to build a roster.

 

[fincane]

Wittingham's 2019 team was his best team since they joined the conference. He had 7 draft picks, plus Tyler Huntley.

Mario beat him, won the conference title, won the Rose Bowl and finished Top 5. And since then, he signed two monster classes. He's been the most successful coach in the Pac-12, on and off the field. There is really no credible argument otherwise.

The guy isn't perfect, but there is a reason it would cost huge money to sign him. His market value is high based on the performance of his teams and his ability to build a roster.

He wasn't even the most successful coach on the field last year. I guess Washington suffering from COVID just won't be a factor here. Texas won a bidding war and beat out LSU for Tom Herman. Cristobal current market value isn't higher than Herman's and we saw how that worked out.

His red flags are apparent and they won't get better here. They'll probably be exacerbated because he won't be going against up a down USC, UCLA and Washington for players. So that talent advantage that helps him squeak out wins against below average or simply bad football teams will decrease. I'm tired of watching Miami football teams in games where we look up and it is late in the 3rd quarter and wondering how are we in a one possession games with average football teams at best. Mario promises more of that. If ya like that feeling in the pit of your stomach then by all means bring Mario home. I'll pass

 

[DMoney]

I'm tired of watching Miami football teams in games where we look up and it is late in the 3rd quarter and wondering how are we in a one possession games with average football teams at best.

I'm tired of losing those games.