The first pick of the second round will sign a contract worth approximately $9.9 million and receive a signing bonus of approximately $4.2 million. The second pick of the round will receive a $9.8 million contract with a $4.15 million signing bonus. The numbers decrease each pick until the 32nd pick where the player will receive a $6.17 million contract with a $1.49 million signing bonus.
The first pick of the third round will sign a contract worth approximately $5.85 million and receive a signing bonus of approximately $1.26 million. The second pick of the round will receive a $5.83 million contract with a $1.245 million signing bonus. The numbers decrease each pick until the 39th pick where the player will receive a $5.366 million contract with a $903,220 signing bonus.
Assume a bit of a bump for this season, and to make the math easier, we’ll say the first pic of the second round signs a $10M contract, including a $4.5M dollar signing bonus, for an average of $2.5M per season. The signing bonus is guaranteed, and he would have to be a complete bust to be released after one year, even two years. He’s looking at $6-7M ‘more or less‘ guaranteed. And all likelihood, the full contract.
All in a quarterback heavy draft, with maybe a half dozen quarterbacks ranked ahead of him? Ignore mock drafts. Two years ago draft sites predicted Malik Willis going third overall to Detroit and ended up going third round to Tennessee, 86th overall. There’s always guys draft pundits boost up and end up falling multiple rounds by people who actually make those decisions.
No idea what kind of NIL opportunities he would have in Miami but based on what we read in the media about NIL for star players, maybe $2.5M? Maybe I’m too high, or maybe I’m undervaluing him.
His wager is can he improve his draft stock enough with another excellent season in college, and perhaps a weaker QB class, to boost himself into the first round, or even the first half of the first round in 2025? Can playing one season at Miami, with an excellent OL, strong running game, and solid-very good supporting skill players allow him to showcase his skills even more? Or has he reached a ceiling in college and is this the time to bet on himself at the next level?