We spend so much time on recruiting, but we rarely take time to look back. This series examines every class for the past five coaches- Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon, and Coker. As Mario’s first class enters Year 4, what are the trends he needs to avoid if he wants to break the cycle?
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars get drafted. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
The next class is Al Golden’s last, the Class of 2015.
2015
Four-year winning percentage- 65% (+2 over prior class)
Total enrollees- 22
NFL players- 8
NFL games- 214
Day 1 Picks- 0
Day 2 picks- 0
Pro Bowls- 0
FOUR STARS
RB Mark Walton (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 21 NFL games
2. 4th Round pick
OT Bar Milo (Los Angeles, CA)
WR Lawrence Cager (Baltimore, MD)
1. 21 NFL games
TE Jerome Washington (Elizabeth, NJ)
OT Tyree St. Louis (Tampa, FL)
1. 5 NFL games
DT Kendrick Norton (Jacksonville, FL)
1. 7th Round pick
LB Charles Perry (Palm Beach County, FL)
S Jaquan Johnson (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 60 NFL games
2. 6th Round pick
THREE STARS OR BELOW
DE Scott Patchan (Tampa, FL)
CB Michael Jackson (Birmingham, AL)
1. 55 NFL games (still active)
2. 5th Round pick
OL Jahair Jones (Brooklyn, NY)
OL Brendan Loftus (Tallahassee, FL)
S Sheldrick Redwine (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 34 NFL games
2. 4th Round pick
LB Jamie Gordinier (Jersey Shore, NJ)
DT RJ McIntosh (Broward County, FL)
1. 18 NFL games
2. 5th Round pick
OL Hayden Mahoney (Philadelphia, PA)
S Robert Knowles (Miami-Dade County, FL)
DT Ryan Fines (Bradenton, FL)
OL Tyler Gauthier (Venice, FL)
QB Evan Shireffs (Athens, GA)
LB James King (Miami-Dade County, FL)
CB Terrance Henley (Broward County, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: This class was not great, but it was also better than it should have been. Al Golden was a dead-man walking and we had absolutely zero juice on the field. Despite the lack of momentum, we landed eight NFL players and ten starters on the Turnover Chain team.
Despite the high amount of NFL players, this class had a lot of dead weight and too few impact guys. The local losses were staggering. Instead of recruiting Boynton Beach QB Lamar Jackson, a future Hall of Famer, we took a zero-star QB out of Athens named Evan Shireffs. We missed on Deerfield Beach WR Calvin Ridley (Alabama), Norland CB Carlton Davis (Auburn), Booker T WR Antonio Callaway (Florida) and Northwestern CB DeAndre Baker (Georgia). Ridley and his teammate Shawn Burgess-Becker were the highest-rated prospects of the bunch, but Alabama won that battle with top recruiters Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier. We flat-out failed to recruit St. Thomas CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) and Carol City CB Rashad Fenton (South Carolina). All of these players went pro.
BEST PLAYER: There was no true NFL star in the group, but I’ll go with the best college player in Jaquan Johnson. The Killian star had average size and speed but elite instincts, and his tackling ability was the backbone of Manny Diaz’s resurgent defenses. He was also a no-doubt local commit who stayed strong despite turmoil in the program.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: This class only had six blue-chippers, so picking are slim. Israeli-American OL Bar Milo was a cool story and hyped prospect as Brad Kaaya’s high school left tackle. But he never really competed for a starting spot due to a lack of high-end physical tools. TE Jerome Washington had good size and speed but lacked fluidity. He transferred to Rutgers and became a starter there.
BEST EVALUATION: Birmingham native CB Michael Jackson was an lightly recruited player out of SEC country. His size (6’2) and explosiveness (35-inch vertical) earned him an offer at the Al Golden camp, and he quickly committed. His Miami career started slow, but under the tutelage of Mike Rumph and Manny Diaz he emerged as one of the better corners in the country. His NFL career also sputtered at first, but he has since found a home with the Panthers and recently signed a $10.5 million extension as a starting cornerback.
LESSON LEARNED: This has become one of my new recruiting rules: South Florida quarterbacks who are over 6’1 and have P4 physical tools rarely bust. There aren’t many of them, but they have a high success rate. Fernando Mendoza (Cal/Indiana) and CJ Bailey (NC State) are recent examples. Lamar Jackson was nowhere near the player he is now in high school, but college-level coaching and strength and conditioning took him to incredible heights. A lot of local quarterbacks are behind the developmental curve, which leaves a lot of meat on the bone for college.
CONCLUSION: This class could have been outstanding if we landed 2-3 more of those local NFL players. As it stands, it was a pretty good salvage job that set us up for a memorable run in 2016-17. But there were too many players that were below FBS caliber to call it a good class.
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars get drafted. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
The next class is Al Golden’s last, the Class of 2015.
2015
Four-year winning percentage- 65% (+2 over prior class)
Total enrollees- 22
NFL players- 8
NFL games- 214
Day 1 Picks- 0
Day 2 picks- 0
Pro Bowls- 0
FOUR STARS
RB Mark Walton (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 21 NFL games
2. 4th Round pick
OT Bar Milo (Los Angeles, CA)
WR Lawrence Cager (Baltimore, MD)
1. 21 NFL games
TE Jerome Washington (Elizabeth, NJ)
OT Tyree St. Louis (Tampa, FL)
1. 5 NFL games
DT Kendrick Norton (Jacksonville, FL)
1. 7th Round pick
LB Charles Perry (Palm Beach County, FL)
S Jaquan Johnson (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 60 NFL games
2. 6th Round pick
THREE STARS OR BELOW
DE Scott Patchan (Tampa, FL)
CB Michael Jackson (Birmingham, AL)
1. 55 NFL games (still active)
2. 5th Round pick
OL Jahair Jones (Brooklyn, NY)
OL Brendan Loftus (Tallahassee, FL)
S Sheldrick Redwine (Miami-Dade County, FL)
1. 34 NFL games
2. 4th Round pick
LB Jamie Gordinier (Jersey Shore, NJ)
DT RJ McIntosh (Broward County, FL)
1. 18 NFL games
2. 5th Round pick
OL Hayden Mahoney (Philadelphia, PA)
S Robert Knowles (Miami-Dade County, FL)
DT Ryan Fines (Bradenton, FL)
OL Tyler Gauthier (Venice, FL)
QB Evan Shireffs (Athens, GA)
LB James King (Miami-Dade County, FL)
CB Terrance Henley (Broward County, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: This class was not great, but it was also better than it should have been. Al Golden was a dead-man walking and we had absolutely zero juice on the field. Despite the lack of momentum, we landed eight NFL players and ten starters on the Turnover Chain team.
Despite the high amount of NFL players, this class had a lot of dead weight and too few impact guys. The local losses were staggering. Instead of recruiting Boynton Beach QB Lamar Jackson, a future Hall of Famer, we took a zero-star QB out of Athens named Evan Shireffs. We missed on Deerfield Beach WR Calvin Ridley (Alabama), Norland CB Carlton Davis (Auburn), Booker T WR Antonio Callaway (Florida) and Northwestern CB DeAndre Baker (Georgia). Ridley and his teammate Shawn Burgess-Becker were the highest-rated prospects of the bunch, but Alabama won that battle with top recruiters Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier. We flat-out failed to recruit St. Thomas CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) and Carol City CB Rashad Fenton (South Carolina). All of these players went pro.
BEST PLAYER: There was no true NFL star in the group, but I’ll go with the best college player in Jaquan Johnson. The Killian star had average size and speed but elite instincts, and his tackling ability was the backbone of Manny Diaz’s resurgent defenses. He was also a no-doubt local commit who stayed strong despite turmoil in the program.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: This class only had six blue-chippers, so picking are slim. Israeli-American OL Bar Milo was a cool story and hyped prospect as Brad Kaaya’s high school left tackle. But he never really competed for a starting spot due to a lack of high-end physical tools. TE Jerome Washington had good size and speed but lacked fluidity. He transferred to Rutgers and became a starter there.
BEST EVALUATION: Birmingham native CB Michael Jackson was an lightly recruited player out of SEC country. His size (6’2) and explosiveness (35-inch vertical) earned him an offer at the Al Golden camp, and he quickly committed. His Miami career started slow, but under the tutelage of Mike Rumph and Manny Diaz he emerged as one of the better corners in the country. His NFL career also sputtered at first, but he has since found a home with the Panthers and recently signed a $10.5 million extension as a starting cornerback.
LESSON LEARNED: This has become one of my new recruiting rules: South Florida quarterbacks who are over 6’1 and have P4 physical tools rarely bust. There aren’t many of them, but they have a high success rate. Fernando Mendoza (Cal/Indiana) and CJ Bailey (NC State) are recent examples. Lamar Jackson was nowhere near the player he is now in high school, but college-level coaching and strength and conditioning took him to incredible heights. A lot of local quarterbacks are behind the developmental curve, which leaves a lot of meat on the bone for college.
CONCLUSION: This class could have been outstanding if we landed 2-3 more of those local NFL players. As it stands, it was a pretty good salvage job that set us up for a memorable run in 2016-17. But there were too many players that were below FBS caliber to call it a good class.
