I just posted this in the win out thread. The make or break matchups start next week for us.
This week, Iowa beating Oregon would probably help. Whoever wins between BYU TTU could both help and hurt us (bottom two paragraphs).
Obviously we have to win out. But basically.. all we'd have to do is move up a spot or two as teams ahead of us lose, and we'd get in.
I know it won't play out this way, but using the ESPN's matchup predictor:
11 Texas is projected to lose to UGA next week. They also play A&M in their finale.
12 Oklahoma is projected to lose to Alabama next week
14 UVA is projected to lose to Duke next week
16 Vandy is projected to lose to @ Tenn in their finale
17 GT is projected to lose to UGA in their finale. They also play Pitt in 2 weeks.
18 Miami is expected to win out.
19 USC is projected to lose @ Oregon in two weeks. They also play #20 Iowa next week
20 Iowa is projected to lose to #8 Oregon today and @ USC next week
IF we win out, #13 Utah wouldn't have our resume.
#15 Louisville is projected to win out. But they still play Cal, Clemson, @ SMU and Kentucky. We'd jump them with a single loss.
Other teams:
If we win out it's because we're "headed in the right direction", which makes it hard to justify keeping #10 ND ahead of us.
#9 Oregon's schedule is BAAAAD. Their best win is against 3-5 Penn State. They still play @ #20 Iowa, 6-3 Minnesota, #19 USC and @ #23 Washington. It's hard to say where they'd end up if they lose another game.
If #8 BYU loses to TTU today, a second loss @ 7-2 Cincinatti or at home against 6-3 TCU would end their season. But losing today, then winning out would hurt us.
If #7 TTU loses to BYU today, it would come down to their resume vs ours. Would our win over ND be more valuable than their win over Utah?