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Another week of the CFB season is in the books. Since Miami was on bye, many of us had a better opportunity than usual to watch some other teams. Here are some observations and takeaways from this week in CFB. This will be a long update as we had a ton of games yesterday.
- USC: It's the same old story for a Lincoln Riley coached team. Very good QB play, very good offense, but no impactful defense to be heard of. USC almost pulled back a big comeback yesterday at Illinois. Jayden Maivia had a solid game and has had a good season, no doubt. However, USC's defense just couldn't get it done. Lincoln Riley has been an HC for almost a decade, and he just can't seem to figure out how to coach a defense. Riley is 19-12 going back to the start of the 2023 season. That's not good enough for USC, and if he can't get at least 9 wins this year, his seat is going to start getting very very hot.
- Illinois: last week, Illinois was the laughingstock of the CFB world. A top ten team going into Indiana, you expected a great game. Unfortunately, all the country got to see was a complete beatdown of the fighting Illini. This week, Illinois bounced back with a gritty win against USC. To be clear, they almost blew it by allowing a USC comeback. However, they did what they needed to for the win. Luke Altmeyer is a good QB, and this is a team that could finish the year with ten wins (ranked OSU their only remaining opponent who they won't be favored against).
- Notre Dame: the Fighting Irish put on a show yesterday in Fayetteville. Jeremiah Love had a career day, and ND looked the part against a reeling Arkansas program. This is a ND team that should run the table and go 10-2. I'd imagine they will be in the CFP, particularly if their only two losses end up being to fellow CFP competitors Miami and Texas A&M. Every week that passes by, it becomes more impressive that Miami completely shut down Love and Price in Week 1.
- Arkansas: terrible. Seriously, they've never been great, but when have they sucked this bad? Sam Pittman's time is coming to a close, and the Razorbacks will need to make a coaching hire that turns their program into a respectable SEC competitor.
- Georgia Tech: like the Chaney Fumble in 2023, GT got bailed out by several lucky breaks and calls yesterday against Wake Forrest. Still, they won. The only real remaining challenges on their schedule are Duke, Pitt, and UGA. This is a gritty, tough team. They'll remain a contender in the ACC. Brent Key is going to be a very hot coaching commodity at the end of this season. One wonders what GT will do to keep him, especially since big programs with vacancies will come calling.
- Vanderbilt: like Brent Key, Clark Lea is another guy who's going to be a hot coaching commodity come the end of this season. Lea has Vanderbilt at 5-0 for only the second time in 80 years. This is a Vanderbilt team that can hang around with anybody and is respectable. For a traditionally terrible program, that's all you can ask for. Next up is Alabama in what will be a huge rematch from a 2024 season thriller. Don't count Diego Paivia and this team out, they could very well go into Tuscaloosa and pull the upset win.
- Auburn: What more can you say, other than Jackson Arnold is a disaster under center. Seriously, this is an Auburn team with some interesting pieces, but will ultimately be held back by subpar QB play. With two losses early into the season and the rest of their SEC slate to play, this Auburn team will be lucky to get to 8 wins.
- Texas A&M: This is a good Texas A&M team. Add another W to the win column, and keep an eye on them as the CFB season unfolds. Marcel Reed is a good QB, and this team avoids UGA and Bama in the rest of its SEC slate. Remaining challenges are Mizzou, LSU, and Texas. Even if A&M only wins 1 out of those 3, it would still mean a 10-2 season.
- LSU: there were two QBs the CFB media was in love with coming into this season: Cade Klubnick and Garett Nussmeier. Evidently, for anyone who's ever actually watched these two play, you could see how overrated they are. LSU, again, struggled to do anything on offense. The Tigers had a late rally, but Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels ultimatlely snuffed any hopes of a comeback with a game-winning drive. This LSU offense lacks explosiveness and playmakers at the boundary. It's slow, plodding, and predictable. With a very tough SEC slate still to come, this LSU team is looking like a 9-3 squad at best.
- Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin has made this program a contender. Slightly, but still impressive, is the fact that he took a QB ranked #60 coming out of the portal and made him a legit starting QB in the SEC. This is a gritty, good Ole Miss team. They'll make noise in the SEC, and look to be 10-2 at worse. Lots of chatter over the past few weeks has been on whether Kiffin would leave Oxford for Gainesville. Even last year, I would've said yes. However, he's got a great thing going in Ole Miss, a program he built from the ground up, Alumni Support, Job Security, and what seems like a happy life for the first time. At this point, leaving Ole Miss for Florida would be a lateral move at best, and maybe even a downgrade.
- Ohio State: plainly put, they don't look like the #1 team in the country. Washington is a solid program, but OSU's offense struggled against a smaller Washington Defense. Like every year, OSUs defense is legit. It is hands down one of the best, if not the best, units in the country. Julian Sayin has done what he's needed to, and looks to be getting better week to week. This is an OSU team that will likely go 11-1, and make another CFP Appearance.
- Washington: Jedd Fisch is a good coach, and this is a decent Washington team. However, some of the playcalling was perplexing yesterday, and this Washington Defense is not good. Keep an eye on this team though, wouldn't be surprised if they were pretty good by the end of the season. Washington will also look to keep Fisch locked down, as teams will come calling once the season is over.
- Indiana: Pulled off a tough win at Iowa yesterday. Kurt Cignetti has things rolling for the Hoosiers, and Fernando Mendoza has proven to be a great QB pickup in the portal. Still, you wonder what this Indiana team is going to be by the end of the season. With Oregon in two weeks, and Penn State later in the season, this is a squad that should be 10-2 at worst. And unlike last year, they have quality wins.
- Oregon: I've said for weeks that Oregon was a team to keep an eye on, as they blew out opponents left and right. Yesterday, the Ducks went into a very hostile Happy Valley environment and found a way to pull off a huge 2OT win. For three and a half quarters, Oregon was in control of this game. The Ducks Defense had Penn State on Lockdown, and Dante Moore was finding some rhythm on offense. Oregon is a very good team, and will likely play OSU in the B10 Championship Game. Still, they also looked very beatable yesterday. Surprisingly, I didn't find their OL to be as imposing as past years, and their RB room seems to have take a slight, albeit very slight, step back talent-wise. Still, this is an Oregon team that will be a CFP contender.
- Penn State: I've used this saying to describe Penn State before, and I'll use it again now: always the bridesmaid, never the bride. The story of Penn State under James Franklin is a respectable, tough, CFB program that'll win 10 games a year. They'll beat who they're favored against without fail. However, they are incapable of pulling off a big win or upset against an evenly matched or better opponent. James Franklin can't pull off the big win, and this program has a very real hard ceiling. To add some additional context, it took Jim Harbaugh till year 7 at Michigan to get the Wolverines into national championship contender status. It's year 11 for James Franklin, and this program looks the same as it has since his third season at the helm. Drew Allar is the epitome of a game manager with a big arm, and Penn State's offense lacks explosiveness at WR and TE. It was a huge mistake for Franklin to let Beau Pribula transfer to Mizzou, especially when Pribula is a far better fit for the scheme Penn State's OC runs. Also, Franklin just can't make an aggressive call either. How do you punt at the Oregon 36? At this point, he's just a better Bo Pellini. If Penn State wants to be a legit year-to-year contender, not just on paper, they need to consider moving on from Franklin.
- UGA: this doesn't look like the same UGA team Kirby Smart had even two years ago. This is one of those programs you can tell was affected by the advent of NIL. Ultimately, Gunner Stockton is good enough to get this team to the SEC Championship, but the WR room is still a glaring issue. Drops are a problem, including what would have been a go-ahead touchdown. UGAs Defense is very good, but can't be counted on to do everything. This team will stay firmly in the SEC Championship Race, but they are not the behemoth that Smart had a few years ago. Mike Bobo is also one of the worst OCs in the country, and it is remarkable that he keeps somehow getting jobs.
- Alabama: this is a very confusing Alabama team. Ty Simpson looks the part after a subpar opening game against FSU. The defense has a pulse and looks athletic. The trenches are not what they used to be under Nick Saban, but they got the job done. However, Bama's run game is extremely underwhelming, and they have a big test next week with Vanderbilt. Ultimately, this is a team that could legitimately win the SEC, despite the issues that remain. If Ty Simpson plays like he did yesterday the rest of the year, it's gonna be hard for this team to be stopped in SEC Play. Watching this team play really does give a wtf feeling, especially considering their performance against FSU.
- NC State: a_s_s. Seriously these guys suck. CJ Bailey is wasting his talent playing for a team that's looking straight down the barrel of a 6-6/7-5 year.
- Virginia: the hoos got their biggest under Tony Elliot, with a huge 2OT upset of #8 FSU. This is a UVA offense that has talent at RB and WR. Chandler Morris does enough under center, though his decision-making is average at best. His three INTs, particularly the first two, kept FSU in the game. Still, these guys have heart. However, contrary to the narrative that FSU fans are trying to spin to save face, this is not a good football team. They're average at best, and will likely finish the year 7-5/8-4. The problem for UVA is that they have a horrendous defense. That secondary is one of the worst I've ever seen, and were it not for an incredible INT early in the game, UVA likely loses by a TD in regulation. Still they have heart, and look to be on track to finish above .500 for the first time under Tony Elliot.
FSU: We'll finish this week's roundup where the week started, with FSU. The Noles went into Scott Stadium on Friday night, riding high off a win against Alabama and beatdowns against two terrible teams. All week, myself and many on this board pointed out that this was a classic trap game for FSU. On FSUs end, they were more concerned about Charlotte, us, and the CFP than this matchup. Ultimately, we saw what happened. An undersized UVA OL, down three starters, pounded FSU's front 7. Chandler Morris, despite throwing 3 bad interceptions, carved up FSU's secondary. FSU's offense, despite some miscues, did what it needed to. However, you could see the limitations in their passing game, as 95% of their passes are outside the hashes, and are either short slants, digs, wheel routes, or go routes. The playcalling was also suspect at times. It says a lot that on 4th and 1, FSU opted for a play action pass (with questionable personnel on the field), than just running the ball. FSU fans will tell you that this is a good UVA team that they lost too. They would be mistaken, as this is not a good UVA team, and they arguably have one of the worst defenses you'll see in the ACC this year. FSU has a huge matchup with us this Saturday. Usual caveats apply in a rivalry game, but as we saw last year, you can't fix a defense in one week. Missed tackles, so pressure up front, and a swiss cheese secondary are hard things to fix with such little time. If UVAs depleted and undersized OL could manhandle FSU, I can't imagine what our guys are capable of doing.
give them a back up Tackle/guard, Emory, and a future recruit for Cam Coleman
