Week 4 Stat Roll

[OrangeBowlMagic]

As always, these are only numbers from FBS vs FBS competition.

Offense:

Yards per play: 48th (5.94 YPP)
Yards per game: 44th (419.7 YPG)
Points per game: 29th (34.0 PPG)
Passing yards per game: 53rd (245.3 YPG)
Passing completion percentage: 20th (68.9%)
Passing yards per attempt: 36th (8.2 YPA)
Passer rating: 38th (149.25)
Passing TDs: 41st (5 TDs)
Rushing yards per game: 42nd (174.33 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 65th (4.29 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 18th (8)
Sacks given up per game: 23rd (1 per game)
First Downs per game: 37th (22.7 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 26th (47.5%)
4th down conversion %: 18th (80%, 4 for 5 on the season, only "miss" was failed FG vs ND)
TFLs allowed per game: 2nd (2.67 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 23rd (77% TD rate, 10 TDs in 13 chances)
Red Zone Scoring %: 40th (12 scores in 13 chances)
Field goal %: 1st (5 for 5)
PAT %: 1st (18 for 18)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 38th (44)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 52nd (13)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 90th (4)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 100th (1)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 54th (1)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 79th (0)
70+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 79th (0)


Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 18th (4.42 YPP)
Yards per game allowed: 15th (262.3 YPG)
Points per game allowed: 14th (14.3 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 36th (191.3 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 35th (58.5%)
Passing yards per attempt: 32nd (6.0 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 33rd (116.07)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 12th (71.0 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 14th (2.54 YPA)
Sacks per game: 14th (3.0 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 14th (26.8% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 34th (38%, opponents 3/8 on 4th down)
Red Zone td % allowed: 95th (71% allowed -- 5 TDs in 7 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 72nd (86% allowed -- 6 scores in 7 chances)
Punting: 66th (43.67 Yard average)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 26th (25) (Only 6 teams who have played 3 FBS games have allowed less)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 32nd (9)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 50th (5)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 62nd (3)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 79th (2)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 52nd (1)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 87th (7.0 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 62nd (50 Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 49th (+0.33 per game -- 4 takeaways, 3 giveaways)
Time of possession: 7th (35:29 per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 70 plays per game)

Advanced Metrics:

Total ADJ/EPA per play: 18th
Success Rate %: 6th
Offensive Adj/EPA per play: 34th
Passing EPA/dropback: 44th
Rushing EPA/rush: 28th
Offensive Success Rate: 11th
Defensive Adj/EPA per play: 18th
Passing Defensive EPA/dropback: 29th
Rushing Defensive EPA/rush: 12th
Defensive Success Rate: 15th


Takeaways:

So, this team is at least pretty good at literally everything? Seems that way watching it and looking at the numbers. To me, and we're still really early in this thing, it's pretty close to what we thought could be "best case scenario" from a macro view. I think most of said we're not going to be the #1 offense in the country, but it's still likely to be very good, and if the defense can just follow suit in that "good to very good" category, this is going to be an excellent football team. Well, through a third of the year, that's a resounding YES. The defense has been much better than I thought, and I had some pretty high hopes. 14th in scoring defense, 14th in 3rd down percentage allowed, 18th in EPA per play, 15th in success rate allowed, we are pretty much Top 30 in every single category. Through 4 weeks, this is, unquestionably, a Top 20 defense in America, at absolute worst. I could hear arguments for even higher, considering we've played 3 FBS teams with pretty **** good rosters.

On offense, we're doing what we need to do to win. Again, as we expected, it's not overly flashy. But this is what Mario and Dawson want to do. And this is with Beck playing by far his worst game of the year factored in. But we're not turning it over a lot, we're 26th in the country in 3rd down percentage, we're 7th in time of possession, we're not giving up negative plays (as always)....it's just a fully complementary football team right now. There is nothing that's off the page sensational, like the offense last year, but there's literally no aspect of this football team that's even close to bad, like the defense last year. If I could point to one thing that's probably most disappointing to the staff, it's that we're 65th in rushing yards per attempt. We were 5th last season. I'll be very interested to see how that normalizes over the next few weeks. But the EPA/rush is 28th, which isn't bad at all.

And the explosives have flipped, again as we thought and hoped. We all wish we were more explosive on offense, but this time last year we were far and away #1 in the country in explosives on offense, and putrid on defense. This year, despite playing a Top 10 team, a ranked USF at the time, and what everyone says is the best UiF roster in 5+ years, only 6 teams have given up fewer 10+ yard plays per game than us. That's a remarkable turnaround from last season.

Long way to go here, boys and girls. But just speaking for myself, I wanted to see a balanced team this year. I knew the offense would take a step back, the question was how much? And I was very confident the defense would take a step forward, but the $1M question was, how much? Through 3 of 11 FBS games, we have a very complementary, balanced football team. Our offense doesn't beat itself, it stays on the field, it scores points, and it allows our defense to stay rested so when they hit the field, they can play as 11 rabid hyenas.

I don't have all the metrics on this, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that any team in America has played 3 FBS games against teams with more talent than we have, except UiF. ND, USF, and UiF, there are no cupcakes there like Kent State or Purdue or UNC or Oregon State to just roll up massive numbers. And it doesn't get much easier after the bye, but ****, what another incredible opportunity to go to Tally and push those frauds all around that dump. Let's get healthy, and I feel really good about Heatherman with 2 weeks to study Malzahn.

GO CANES!!

 

[LuCane]

Excellent stuff.

The FSU game is setup strangely because of Malzahn, but I'm still waiting to see what happens when a team tests us vertically - especially at our Safeties. We've already improved - almost night and day - from what we saw of Safeties against the run, but because of specific matchups, we haven't yet seen what happens to them in the passing game. Like I said in another post, at least they're more consistently aligned so far when teams use motion. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Excellent stuff.

The FSU game is setup strangely because of Malzahn, but I'm still waiting to see what happens when a team tests us vertically - especially at our Safeties. We've already improved - almost night and day - from what we saw of Safeties against the run, but because of specific matchups, we haven't yet seen what happens to them in the passing game. Like I said in another post, at least they're more consistently aligned so far when teams use motion. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

I agree completely, I'm very interested to see what happens against FSU, because ND and UiF played the game in a phone booth. There was absolutely nothing vertical, the QBs were completely untrusted and everything was super quick.

FSU is run vertical, run horizontal, and throw VERY vertical. They're 4th in the country in yards per attempt. But they've only thrown the ball 38 times against FBS competition.

I am so interested to see them against UVA. They haven't played a road game yet, and although Charlottesville isn't exactly the Roman Coliseum, it's at least different than Doak. And they've played really 1 team. Was the Alabama game representative of who they are? A physical team up front with an explosive vertical passing game? Or was it a "one off"? UVA at least gives me some hint at an answer. Even though they're not good, they're at least an actual team. Kent State is arguably the worst FBS program in the country. FSU is only -7 this week, so I don't think Vegas has total trust yet. UVA has scored 31+ in all 4 games so far this year, also. They can score points. FSU will always have my attention because it's so fun to whip their ***, but I'll see how I feel for our game depending a lot on how they look against UVA. If they go up there Friday night and win 45-10, I might admit they're gonna give us a run the following week.

 

[305407cane]

Once teams start getting into their schedules I think we will climb. We have played nd uf and usf(a strong g5). Most teams have played cupcake G5’s. Yes these stats are only fbs. Also our time of possession against uf in the first half was crazy.

I think we will round into the 20’s-30’s on offense and defense when it’s all said and done. How will we handle a shootout is my concern

 

[CreamCityCane]

Takeaways:

So, this team is at least pretty good at literally everything? Seems that way watching it and looking at the numbers.

On offense, we're doing what we need to do to win. Again, as we expected, it's not overly flashy. But this is what Mario and Dawson want to do. And this is with Beck playing by far his worst game of the year factored in.
We all wish we were more explosive on offense, but this time last year we were far and away #1 in the country in explosives on offense, and putrid on defense

I still think the offense has the dudes to be more explosive. Lyle and Trader will be returning from injury. Josh Moore should be playable against every secondary after the FSU game, and Dawson needs to get him ready to play a role in ACCCG / playoff caliber football.

Gerard Pringle has looked explosive as well in limited touches. Another guy that should see some reps vs the Stanfords and VaTechs if the starters take care of business.

 

[RightSaidFred]

We still have issues sealing the edge at times on d. Also TE play has been pedestrian, and the center has been terrible.

Florida didn't really test our DBs, so can't really comment there, but that would be the other area of concern from prior weeks. Sticking in coverage on broken plays, mostly.

Oh, and too many procedural penalties.

The good news is that all of those things, besides center, are fixable this bye period.

 

[DMoney]

This is always one of my favorite threads, but it seems early. We’ve played a tougher out-of-conferences slate than just about anybody.

I know Top 20 defense would be an improvement, but we are performing at a Top 3 level right now. If we stay consistent in ACC play I think you’ll see a big statistical leap.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

This is always one of my favorite threads, but it seems early. We’ve played a tougher out-of-conferences slate than just about anybody.

I know Top 20 defense would be an improvement, but we are performing at a Top 3 level right now. If we stay consistent in ACC play I think you’ll see a big statistical leap.

I agree completely. Where we are today is not indicative of where we are nationally, in my opinion.

Since you mentioned the defense, we're 18th in YPP allowed right now. UCF is ahead of us. Does anyone really think UCF has better defense than we do? No, but they've played 2 FBS games, and they were against Jacksonville State and the corpse of Bill Belichick.

So, I'm with you. I like to lay it out every week, and I almost always mention, this early in the year, take this with a grain of salt. I actually said in the post that (and full disclosure I haven't examined every schedule in the country), I think the gator has played the most "most talented" teams in the country so far, and we're #2. So the fact that these defensive numbers look as good as they do is probably even more of a good thing than the actual numbers. There sure as **** aren't 17 defenses I'd take over ours right now.

 

[RedSquare]

Excellent stuff.

The FSU game is setup strangely because of Malzahn, but I'm still waiting to see what happens when a team tests us vertically - especially at our Safeties. We've already improved - almost night and day - from what we saw of Safeties against the run, but because of specific matchups, we haven't yet seen what happens to them in the passing game. Like I said in another post, at least they're more consistently aligned so far when teams use motion. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Of course, one thing to consider: it's difficult to consistently challenge a team vertically if you have a pass rush that can be disruptive with only bringing four.

 

[flips]

Thanks.

Need to see defense do a much better job limiting TDs in red zone the rest of the year, and offense needs to continue to produce TDs in red zone at high rate.

I don't think we are going to have an explosive offense this year. We can do better than we have been, and Lyle and Trader should help there, but I doubt it becomes a strength of this team. Should have some opportunities in the pass game against FSU though, as they have been slightly susceptible to giving up long passes in their two FBS games.

Maximizing the points we score when we're close to the end zone, and minimizing the other team's points when they're close to end zone is the ticket with this team.