Some other games i've circled...
Louisville -3 @ Cuse: Tucker is a beast, but their D-line is small and very little depth...the Cardinals are stout up front and should control the LOS, eventually pulling away. Again, huge game for Satterfield and his job security, but instead of taking Louisville's season win total, I'd rather just bet this initial game. They won't hit their mark if they can't beat Garrett Schrader and the Orange.
Michigan St -12.5 1H vs. Western Michigan: I'm not high on the Spartans this season, and that pass defense truly was atrocious...but that's not an issue when your opposition cannot throw the ball. The Broncos have two options at QB - a redshirt freshman who completed 3 of 5 passes for 20 yards in 2021, and another redshirt freshman who did not attempt a pass, but ran the ball four times. They have an elite rushing attack, but Tucker will stack that box and leave his corners on an island. They bring in Berger from Wisco to fill the void of Kenneth Walker, and also snagged Colorado's leading rusher to add depth. They should jump out to a quick lead and cruise the rest of the way, probably will end up also playing -22 full game (or just ride 1H and circle back at the live halftime line if it's closer than initially perceived).
Houston -3 @ UTSA: That offense was really tailored around Sincere McCormick (1500 yds rushing in 2021). The defense is solid and Harris is a decent QB, but Houston returns the lethal combo of Clayton Tune (over 3500 yds passing and 30 TDs) and Nell (over 1300 receiving, put up over 150 vs. Cinci in the AAC Champ game). That d-line is filthy and will cause issues, tough opener but give me the Cougars; also on them to make the AAC Champ game, as they avoid UCF and Cinci in the regular season (huge imo).
Will probably add a fair amount between now and Saturday, also on LSU but i've been on them since late july.