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Vegas Win Total

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Cane Dynasty said:
DTP said:
Vegas set the over/under so low last year because on paper, Miami was a very lucky 8 win team in 2015. They were outscored and outgained by their opponents and had a +11 turnover differential. All of those things point to a downturn the following year. The Vegas number crunchers didn't take into account that Miami had just fired the worst defensive coaching staff in FBS though. The numbers guys will look at Miami's numbers from 2016 (outscored and outgained the opponents significantly, 3 losses by a touchdown or less) and assume Miami was an unlucky 9 win team in 2016. Couple that with a soft schedule and I have to believe the o/u will probably be at least 9. If Kaaya was returning, it would probably be at least 10.5
Click to expand...

The actual guys that set the lines won't look at one single ******* thing you just talked about.

It's all about the Power Ranking. Once you learn how to find that you will get it.

I can't wait for Assy Booger to get in here and dry hump the fvck outta this thread. (I'm itching to neg)
Click to expand...

I'm glad you are so obsessed with me. Daily hilarity. SAMs are such weaklings they live to be obsessed, and scared. Never forget scared. It's not a full day without being absolutely petrified. On this site anything that doesn't resemble ranting conventional wisdom is tremble worthy.

BTW, thank you for reminding me of third down screen passes. They had such an awful performance in the bowl games this year that there was a separate segment devoted to them on a major handicapping program. Three friends of mine separately contacted me almost immediately while listening to it, since it's been a theme of mine for 30 years. It's surreal how inept those screen calls are on third down, but the coaches don't pay any attention. I'm talking about third and manageable, not a give up screen on 3rd and 25.

Yes, the season win over/unders are indeed based on power ratings and how they relate to the opponent. Projected pointspreads are set for each game. Then the money line (straight up) odds associated with each pointspread are gathered. Those money line odds are fed into the formula that spits out the over/under estimate. It doesn't have to be precise because the books are cautious with those future books, especially in the early going. Limits are low and juice is relatively high, like -120 on both sides. These days the first college over/unders normally show up in late May at one or two spots. Then everybody gets involved by mid summer. Some of the larger joints wait until everything has settled.

The books literally don't care at all about returning starters and point differential from the previous season, other than those aspects are already built into the power ratings and therefore the money line estimates. Oddsmaking is a grind. You deal with thousands and thousands of results every season. There isn't time or benefit to obsess over minute details of every team or every game. That's what losing bettors do. They sit down on Monday and have to know about every matchup and every injury and every stat. They are determined to handicap that game perfectly. Meanwhile, there is no carryover benefit whatsoever. What you just did doesn't help you toward next week or next year and it probably doesn't even make you a favorite to win the bet on the game you just devoted so much time to. It's a laughably flawed approach, but it remains the most popular method and always will be, just like the guys here who have to know everything about every recruit.

The books don't have time for that. Very few subjective decisions are involved. They steal power ratings from reputable sources and blend those power ratings into their own version. Then they apply a home field value, if any. I've posted this link many times previously but it remains by far the best view of how the lines are actually set. This setting is repeated weekly during football season and daily during basketball/hockey/baseball season. The top oddsmakers gather with their stolen/blended power ratings and take maybe 20 to 45 seconds average on each game before agreeing on a consensus "send" number. Then the bettors take that number one way or another. No big deal. Half the time, or thereabouts, they'll take it the wrong way.

Too bad this link actually exists. Otherwise the simpleton conventional wisdom types would continue to have a field day describing those ultra sophisticated Las Vegas oddsmaking sessions with so many amazing variables and decisions:

The Making of the Line - Vegas Seven
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
Cane Dynasty said:
DTP said:
Vegas set the over/under so low last year because on paper, Miami was a very lucky 8 win team in 2015. They were outscored and outgained by their opponents and had a +11 turnover differential. All of those things point to a downturn the following year. The Vegas number crunchers didn't take into account that Miami had just fired the worst defensive coaching staff in FBS though. The numbers guys will look at Miami's numbers from 2016 (outscored and outgained the opponents significantly, 3 losses by a touchdown or less) and assume Miami was an unlucky 9 win team in 2016. Couple that with a soft schedule and I have to believe the o/u will probably be at least 9. If Kaaya was returning, it would probably be at least 10.5
Click to expand...

The actual guys that set the lines won't look at one single ******* thing you just talked about.

It's all about the Power Ranking. Once you learn how to find that you will get it.

I can't wait for Assy Booger to get in here and dry hump the fvck outta this thread. (I'm itching to neg)
Click to expand...

I'm glad you are so obsessed with me. Daily hilarity. SAMs are such weaklings they live to be obsessed, and scared. Never forget scared. It's not a full day without being absolutely petrified. On this site anything that doesn't resemble ranting conventional wisdom is tremble worthy.

BTW, thank you for reminding me of third down screen passes. They had such an awful performance in the bowl games this year that there was a separate segment devoted to them on a major handicapping program. Three friends of mine separately contacted me almost immediately while listening to it, since it's been a theme of mine for 30 years. It's surreal how inept those screen calls are on third down, but the coaches don't pay any attention. I'm talking about third and manageable, not a give up screen on 3rd and 25.

Yes, the season win over/unders are indeed based on power ratings and how they relate to the opponent. Projected pointspreads are set for each game. Then the money line (straight up) odds associated with each pointspread are gathered. Those money line odds are fed into the formula that spits out the over/under estimate. It doesn't have to be precise because the books are cautious with those future books, especially in the early going. Limits are low and juice is relatively high, like -120 on both sides. These days the first college over/unders normally show up in late May at one or two spots. Then everybody gets involved by mid summer. Some of the larger joints wait until everything has settled.

The books literally don't care at all about returning starters and point differential from the previous season, other than those aspects are already built into the power ratings and therefore the money line estimates. Oddsmaking is a grind. You deal with thousands and thousands of results every season. There isn't time or benefit to obsess over minute details of every team or every game. That's what losing bettors do. They sit down on Monday and have to know about every matchup and every injury and every stat. They are determined to handicap that game perfectly. Meanwhile, there is no carryover benefit whatsoever. What you just did doesn't help you toward next week or next year and it probably doesn't even make you a favorite to win the bet on the game you just devoted so much time to. It's a laughably flawed approach, but it remains the most popular method and always will be, just like the guys here who have to know everything about every recruit.

The books don't have time for that. Very few subjective decisions are involved. They steal power ratings from reputable sources and blend those power ratings into their own version. Then they apply a home field value, if any. I've posted this link many times previously but it remains by far the best view of how the lines are actually set. This setting is repeated weekly during football season and daily during basketball/hockey/baseball season. The top oddsmakers gather with their stolen/blended power ratings and take maybe 20 to 45 seconds average on each game before agreeing on a consensus "send" number. Then the bettors take that number one way or another. No big deal. Half the time, or thereabouts, they'll take it the wrong way.

Too bad this link actually exists. Otherwise the simpleton conventional wisdom types would continue to have a field day describing those ultra sophisticated Las Vegas oddsmaking sessions with so many amazing variables and decisions:

The Making of the Line - Vegas Seven
Click to expand...


OK for all the beginners out there. Who can see the trend?
 
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DTP said:
Cane Dynasty said:
DTP said:
Vegas set the over/under so low last year because on paper, Miami was a very lucky 8 win team in 2015. They were outscored and outgained by their opponents and had a +11 turnover differential. All of those things point to a downturn the following year. The Vegas number crunchers didn't take into account that Miami had just fired the worst defensive coaching staff in FBS though. The numbers guys will look at Miami's numbers from 2016 (outscored and outgained the opponents significantly, 3 losses by a touchdown or less) and assume Miami was an unlucky 9 win team in 2016. Couple that with a soft schedule and I have to believe the o/u will probably be at least 9. If Kaaya was returning, it would probably be at least 10.5
Click to expand...

The actual guys that set the lines won't look at one single ******* thing you just talked about.

It's all about the Power Ranking. Once you learn how to find that you will get it.

I can't wait for Assy Booger to get in here and dry hump the fvck outta this thread. (I'm itching to neg)
Click to expand...

Then why did they set the over/under so low last season? Not being sarcastic, I'm legit curious.
Click to expand...


Don’t worry about how Vegas set the line . Your analysis is spot on and can win you some money this year as I think the o/u will come around 8.5 until the Canes prove they can get over that hump.

2 years ago we were indeed lucky to win 8 –and last year we were a much better team yet only won 9.

You can make money betting if you manage your bets correctly—never go all in—money management—and you approach every bet as if nothing is for sure.

If you know your team and your conference very well and stick to betting on those teams you know very well you have a slight edge over Vegas—but that edge is lost when you become overconfident and bet the entire acct on one or two games. Greed kills
 
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