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Vegas Says

KevinCaneFace said:
Without a stupid halfback pass and a crap show against Cincy, we win ten last year.

10-2 this year and an appearance in the ACC championship vs Clemson.

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To be fair, if you take Wazoo and Cincy, you have to give back Duke...But then i'll let you take FSU.
10 it is.
 
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Lots of shocked people to see the O/U at 7.

Some things to consider:
Brad Kaaya gets hurt.How many games do we win? 5 maybe 6
Corn and Redwine go down. Your now looking at possibly the worst CBs in the ACC.
Key injuries to the OL. This team cant afford injuries to any starters and be expected to have a good season yet the odds are we will have several throughout the year.

Another statistical point. Even a 7 point fav is only going to win about 60% to 65% of the time. So even if we are favored by 7 over teams like GT-UVA-Pitt-NCST-Duke-UNC ,Vegas knows we will most likely lose one of those games and probably 2
 
NJshoreCane said:
KevinCaneFace said:
Without a stupid halfback pass and a crap show against Cincy, we win ten last year.

10-2 this year and an appearance in the ACC championship vs Clemson.

Sent from my Z970 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

To be fair, if you take Wazoo and Cincy, you have to give back Duke...But then i'll let you take FSU.
10 it is.
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Yeah, just saying we're closer than most think. We have depth issues but this should be a ten win team

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Novacane32000 said:
Lots of shocked people to see the O/U at 7.

Some things to consider:
Brad Kaaya gets hurt.How many games do we win? 5 maybe 6
Corn and Redwine go down. Your now looking at possibly the worst CBs in the ACC.
Key injuries to the OL. This team cant afford injuries to any starters and be expected to have a good season yet the odds are we will have several throughout the year.

Another statistical point. Even a 7 point fav is only going to win about 60% to 65% of the time. So even if we are favored by 7 over teams like GT-UVA-Pitt-NCST-Duke-UNC ,Vegas knows we will most likely lose one of those games and probably 2
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You usually don't remotely factor in injury to your "franchise" QB when placing win total futures bets though. That's kinda the leap of faith you make on those type of wagers.
 
Tad Footeball said:
Novacane32000 said:
Lots of shocked people to see the O/U at 7.

Some things to consider:
Brad Kaaya gets hurt.How many games do we win? 5 maybe 6
Corn and Redwine go down. Your now looking at possibly the worst CBs in the ACC.
Key injuries to the OL. This team cant afford injuries to any starters and be expected to have a good season yet the odds are we will have several throughout the year.

Another statistical point. Even a 7 point fav is only going to win about 60% to 65% of the time. So even if we are favored by 7 over teams like GT-UVA-Pitt-NCST-Duke-UNC ,Vegas knows we will most likely lose one of those games and probably 2
Click to expand...

You usually don't remotely factor in injury to your "franchise" QB when placing win total futures bets though. That's kinda the leap of faith you make on those type of wagers.
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Exactly! Nothing is for sure in betting (or the stock market). If you make a big wager on the over,you are hoping for an injury free season. The drop-off from Kaaya is significant from what we saw last year.

BTW: Last year Wash State had an amazing ZERO injuries going into the bowl game which I believe was the biggest factor in them having a very good season.
 
Serious question....where can I actually bet the over on those odds? I've never betted on sports befeore, but I will seriously take this bet. A link would be great...
 
C2l3w1 said:
Serious question....where can I actually bet the over on those odds? I've never betted on sports befeore, but I will seriously take this bet. A link would be great...
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Same here...if anyone can recommend a site they trust and use I'd drop some coin on this as well.
 
NJshoreCane said:
Reppingtheu said:
Im not much of a gambler, actually not a gambler at all....What happens if you take the over and Vegas adjusts to 9 wins? Does that cancel the bet? or are you locked in to the previous line? Do you have the opportunity to change the bet?

I don't gamble but Im gonna put some money on the over as it stands right now.
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Yup, I put 2k on Miami at 6.5 over about a month ago when it opened at South Point, if it goes to 9 at a casino here I'll middle it.
You're set with the over 7 regardless of where the O/U moves to.
Now if it does move to 9, what a lot of pro bettors will do (assuming they bet on the over 7) will be to put that same amount of money on the under 9. If the canes win 8, it's a double hit. Anything other win amount, they just pay the 'vig". That's the casino's cut on your bet.
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Yup, I put 2k on Miami at 6.5 over about a month ago when it opened at South Point, if it goes to 9 at a casino here I'll middle it. even if I push at 9 I still win one side.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
Lots of shocked people to see the O/U at 7.

Some things to consider:
Brad Kaaya gets hurt.How many games do we win? 5 maybe 6
Corn and Redwine go down. Your now looking at possibly the worst CBs in the ACC.
Key injuries to the OL. This team cant afford injuries to any starters and be expected to have a good season yet the odds are we will have several throughout the year.

Another statistical point. Even a 7 point fav is only going to win about 60% to 65% of the time. So even if we are favored by 7 over teams like GT-UVA-Pitt-NCST-Duke-UNC ,Vegas knows we will most likely lose one of those games and probably 2
Click to expand...

I hear what you're saying but been betting too long to not know lines are just a perception of what the betting public will throw down money on a side. The typical better doesn't know crap about what's going on in Miami. They just look at a sheet of paper the casino prints out and lay their money down on a side. Kaaya shouldn't be touched for the first 3 games so the fun begins at game 4, JMO.

I had a game a few years back where i saw an off line on Wichita visiting N Alabama, N A was getting 15, I jumped on it pretty good, it was a very close game, easy win. When I'm on top of my game I start off a schedule by looking for off lines. I think this rise of Miami will jolt me back into caring about college football again. I have never lost money for a whole season here in Vegas, just not up to par compared to when I study and am into it.
 
Going 7-5 wouldn't make me hopeful for the Richt tenure, even though I know Caroll and Saban didn't have good 1st seasons.
 
Can't see us winning less than 9 in Regular season. The coastal ******* sucks people. Get that into your heads. I bet we even win one of the ND, UNC or (hopefully) FSU games.
 
Some more O/U from Betus.com

Bama 10
Clem 10.5
UF 8
FSU 10
GT 6.5
Miami 6.5
Mich 9.5
UNC 8.5
OSU 9.5
OU 10
Tenn 9.5
VT 7
Pitt 7
 
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App State is loaded, winning conf div last year...Don't forget we're playing at 4200 feet above sea level, and it's going to get tough on our guys for the second half.. UNC is will be better this year but may not win as many games..Chizik's defense is the key..
 
Novacane32000 said:
Some more O/U from Betus.com

Bama 10
Clem 10.5
UF 8
FSU 10
GT 6.5
Miami 6.5
Mich 9.5
UNC 8.5
OSU 9.5
OU 10
Tenn 9.5
VT 7
Pitt 7
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Careful there. Youd lose $2 on a $1. Bet $1000, lose $2000. Ive never bet over/under season wins. Is anybody getting dollar for dollar?
 
This makes sense. I know we have individual talent that screams we're better than 7 wins. Still shocked we went sub-500 in 2014 with a roster loaded with draft picks. But for the last few years we've not been a great team, so it's not a surprise. Maybe CMR can change this, maybe not. Still feel we should have hired Butch.
 
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