Upon Further Review: Miami vs. SMU

Here’s what I thought about it. Not the same exact situation, because Wake was down, so they had no choice, but literally LAST WEEK, Wake got the ball against SMU, down by 2, with 12 seconds, on their own 42, needing a FG to win. With NO timeouts.

They completed a 25 yard pass, spiked the ball, and kicked a game winning FG.

This wasn't 6 years ago. It was last ******* week. And our staff, with 1 timeout, 25 seconds, needing, what? 35 yards to give our kicker a reasonable shot? And we take a knee.

Absurd ***** ****. You literally just watched a team ONE WEEK AGO, that's not nearly as talented as you are, get 25 yards on one play. You probably have 4 plays? And you can run anything, since you have a TO. There's zero chance you're going to ever get to a situation where you have to punt. So the literal only thing you're scared about is throwing a pick. Nobody gets near your QB in terms of a pass rush. You're not going to give up a sack/fumble. But you're so scared of letting your QB cook with 25 seconds and timeout, that you just turtle up and play for OT. Embarrassing.

I was in favor of it two years ago against Clemson when we had Emory making his first start. But now you're paying your QB millions, plural. Go try to win the ******* game. Absolute ***** ****.
I was saying the same thing...

Like what do you have to lose in that scenario...

It's crazy...
 
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I was saying the same thing...

Like what do you have to lose in that scenario...

It's crazy...

I mean, to be completely fair, the game. You have the game to lose if your QB throws a pick and now they can kick a FG. But you have to take that chance to try to win the football game.

How much better are your chances of winning a game on the road in overtime versus getting 35 yards in 25 seconds with a timeout?
 
Miami traveled out of the state of Florida for the first time this season as they took on SMU, led by old pal Rhett Lashlee. How did it look on film? Find out only at Upon Further Review.

If you’re reading this column, you already know how the game turned out (and are probably in the same pain-filled boat I am in), so I won’t go into every play like I typically do. We will see where Miami can improve together and then hope for brighter days ahead.

Miami opens with Toney motioned into the backfield and Fletcher out into the slot (more of any sort of creativity, please). He runs a little stop route and is open for a first down. Baumann is wide-open if he Beck wanted to anticipate that throw as he comes into that window. Fletcher draws the LB coverage and creates a window.

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This is just a tough ask to throw this ball seven yards behind the LOS into a leveraged defense on 2nd & 10. Easy to sit here and second-guess when something doesn’t work, but I would expect a scripted drive could come out a touch more impactful. Loss of four on the play really started with poor design into that look.

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Neat little wrinkle that SMU runs on their screen play. They bunch their trio, but then switch the release on who would typically be the receiver to get the ball and the result is a pseudo trap on the CB with a blocker coming towards the defender and then a free blocker for a defender coming from 11 yards away on a 3rd and 3. The OC beat the DC on this one.

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SMU runs a fake QB draw, which gets Toure to step up and then the wheel is already by him at this point. There was a clear emphasis on getting Toure into coverage and exploiting the matchup whenever they could.

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On the script SMU repeatedly got Miami outleveraged. Motion here as Lucas is bailing makes this an easy read for the QB who is going to hit the motion as soon as the boundary goes vertical to vacate the CB and make Thomas come tackle in space.

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You really wish Beck would’ve thrown this to Lofton as he escaped the pocket rather than trying to run.

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There are people telling me Miami coaches their receivers to cradle these throws where they can to protect their bodies, but it really opens you up for drops or tip drills (as we saw later). But here it goes for a TD and Trader finally gets involved this season. I like to see my receivers attack the football with strong hands (but again, I do not know how they are coached to do it, so I could be wrong!).

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33 (Booker Pickett) gets moved out of his lane pretty easily here and then you have a jogger on the KO return (Bryce Fitzgerald) that popped for a big gain.

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Nice awareness by Damari, who brackets 2 first, then clicks and closes on the dump off.

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The gravity of 10. SMU has him bracketed deep and #33 is turning and running looking for him. Completely vacates his zone for the RB to catch a dumpoff.

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Trader with a great catch along the sideline on a nice ball from Beck. Miami just dominated this game early on. It’s truly unbelievable that they lost.

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They don’t score on a drive that gets a 1st down at the 25 due to their egregious penalties and inability to just play a disciplined game. (Not pictured)

A slant-and-go off of triple slants by Brinson burns Thomas. A better throw is a TD, but Miami makes the tackle as the receiver had to stop to catch it.

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Look familiar? Just catch the ball here and this game goes differently. In fact, he has a chance to make this a huge play with just extending strong hands (maybe they really are teaching them to do this to protect themselves?).

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Someone blew the coverage on this play. No one gets hands on #8, nobody is carrying #8. I think Jakobee is supposed to be in Cover-2 and is playing Quarters. Toure probably wants to gets hands on him, but I think Thomas busted here. You basically have four Miami defenders to cover that side of the field and no one covers #8.

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Jennings gets sacked here. Canes got lucky because that receiver is wide-open. Blount really does a nice job of staying in his lane and pushing this pocket so the QB can’t step up and Mesidor/Blount both get home.

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I highlighted this on Twitter, but this is a walk-in TD if you just do your job. #28 is chasing the guy way over there instead of just blocking his guy #26. 28 tried to do too much (no way he can get there to that defender) and 26 tackles Toney at the 8 and Miami has to kick a FG. So many mistakes.

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3rd down and Lofton drops the ball in the end zone. So. Many. Mistakes. (Not pictured)

First play of the 2nd half and Miami forces a clear fumble and recovers it. The reply officials somehow (and I mean somehow) ruled his arm was going forward despite the fact it was only going forward because he got rocked and that’s how momentum works. SMU scores a TD and I’m already dreading this. (Not pictured)

Ensuing drive and the ground game got going with Fletcher. You really might need to just let him be a bit more of a workhorse moving forward because he has clearly been the best RB to this point and his physicality really fits this offense. Cooper pulls and you run power. Left side of the OL just washes everything inside and it’s a big hole. He nearly scores.

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If you’re going to be as condensed as you have been, to me, this has to be a staple play for low red zone. Baumann as a sniffer runs leak and then Fletcher is fast to flat. If 23 takes 87, it’s a dump to 4. But you need to run it on 1st down like this to get defenders to bite.

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On the pod I’ve mentioned before that a lot of the inside runs are simply zone runs that go where defenders dictate with their movements. Edge crashes into B-gap here and Bell washes him down. Lyle does a nice job of seeing the cutback lane and getting to that off-tackle C-gap and an easy 1st down.

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Lyle has a full head of steam here and only that safety. For some reason instead of pounding him and getting the 1st down or very close, he tries to bounce it outside and only gets six. Canes only get two on 3rd and then don’t get the 4th down dive. Four straight runs of essentially the same play. Turnover on downs. It just absolutely blows my mind that Miami found a way to lose this game. They are so much better than SMU, but there were self-inflicted wounds that caused a loss. If this play had an RPO element you would’ve liked to see Beck throw this one on that Glance route.

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Lyle gets two yards here. Yikes. He had the one nice run, but overall this isn’t playable right now when you have Fletcher and Brown available. Conservative, predictable, easy to see coming playcalling notwithstanding.

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All 11 SMU players right here within five yards of the LOS. Have to punish teams for this and Miami just runs a dive play right into it.

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Would like more awareness here. You have nobody threatening your area and a QB scrambling right, but you just stay rooted in your spot covering no one. Lightfoot then overruns it and the receiver actually gets a 1st down when your defense had it covered up completely. This is definitely the problem with asking your edge rushers to spot drop in zone; they tend to drop to that spot and cover grass.

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Baumann gets a lot of heat, but he picks up this edge who shoots the gap and saves the drive here. He actually pancakes this defender.

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Do we think that SMU was expecting anything but another dive play here? You simply have to get more creative on offense. This is the play that Dawson and Mario got into it about and Dawson is correct that the RB has to just hit this play with power and squeeze wherever he can to make it where you have a chance of 4th down. He stops his feet and tries to dance. Few things though, stop with the 83 as a FB stuff. He’s bad at it (honestly a worse adjective than that). SMU again has everyone at the LOS and isn’t the least bit concerned about any sort of creative play call that isn’t a dive. There are 10 defenders in this screenshot. You do wish your RB had seen the gap between Mauigoa and Baumann instead of running into the mass of people and stopping his feet, but alas.

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Same play SMU ran earlier and gets the Mike to bite again (Aguirre this time) and it’s another big play. QB steps forward like he’s running and the LB freezes while a receiver runs by him.

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I would’ve liked to see Toney that inside defender here rather than leaving the closer defender free to tackle the screen in the backfield. If Toney takes the inside defender, this is a 1st down and maybe pops. I am virtually certain it was a mistake by Toney, but I’m not in the room for the play call and maybe he is supposed to take that second guy. A 1st down here and the game is nearly over.

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3rd down they pick up a clear and obvious PI call against SMU and continue their absolute thievery against Miami in this game, but that’s the reason you don’t make 25 mistakes in a game where you allow officials to steal games from you late. (Not pictured)

We know what happens from here and I don’t want to relive it.

Overall

Miami has an identity problem. They want their identity to be physical and they want to do that identity no matter what. The problem with that is that teams get film on you and see your tendencies. When you’re running the same play calls in week eight as week one, you are easier to prepare for and beat.

Great coaches are actively anticipating the adaptations of their offense before the defense has a jump on everything. You don’t have to be a film guy to see that SMU knew what you were going to do in certain spots because you have such tendencies. You are a poker player who plays good hands exactly the same way every time. You are a comedian who tells the same jokes at every show. You are a relic who has to change or become Encyclopedia Brittanica.

On the fateful interception that essentially ended the game in OT, you had Malachi Toney running a choice route underneath. He chose to run a Whip route against bracket coverage. SMU knew you were going to run something underneath to Toney and had a defender sink into the end zone to protect that direction, which left your second defender to live inside. As soon as Toney went outside to the Whip route he just sunk inside and waited for him to come back (he did) and he jumped the route. How many times have we seen Toney run a Whip route in big spots this season? How many times have you read me say how well he runs that route? SMU knew all of this and ended the game because Miami won’t change tendencies in the biggest spots.

Mario has proven he will shell up and retreat to conservatism as soon as things get close. There will not be creativity in these situations, which invites real variance into the games. This was a game Miami wins 90 or 95 times out of a 100 based on the simple talent differential and successful plays in this game. They lost because Mario’s conservatism and consistent tendencies in big moments allowed SMU to overcome all of their talent deficiencies with simply better coaching.


Here's a photo of Lance collecting his nuggets to recap:

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I'm so damm salty still.
 
It’s true. I saw it over the weekend and researched it myself.

In the FSU game, we had a 3rd and 2 that we converted on a throw to Bowman. And we had a 4th and 2 that we converted with a TD to Toney.

Since then, so the rest of the FSU game, all of the Louisville game, all of the Stanford game, and all of the SMU game, on every single 3rd and 2 or less and 4th and 2 or less, we have run the football with a running back.

Twenty-three consecutive such situations have been answered with twenty-three consecutive runs. Most of them converted, of course. But several that were not. I’ll put the percentages together later, but we have been stopped on several of these whereas I think we were stopped on maybe 1-2 all of last season.

The staff refuses to understand they don’t have last years OL in terms of run push, AND, at least last year maybe we’d have thrown it. Who’s to say? So defenses had to at least have that thought. This year, ****, you’ve done the same thing 23 straight times, you can bet your *** I’m putting 10 in the box and pinching everyone into the A-gaps. And yet, we continue to do it over and over again.
What I am not privy to is if Beck has the ability to throw it on some of these plays that look like RPO's. If so, he needs to throw the ball when it's a clearly better option in my opinion. I highlighted one in particular where the Glance is wide open on 3rd down in a drive we got stopped on 4th down I believe.
 
But that last interception its 3rd and 6 in OT we have a 6 yr QB it’s on him to not throw an interception. Throw out of the end zone to kick a FG worst case scenario??
You have told no lies. He wasn't open.

I'm just highlighting the reason he wasn't open is SMU knew you were going to run a Choice route to Toney and bracketed it and then your offense had nothing. Tendencies make you so much easier to defend.

It was a frustrating review.
 
You have told no lies. He wasn't open.

I'm just highlighting the reason he wasn't open is SMU knew you were going to run a Choice route to Toney and bracketed it and then your offense had nothing. Tendencies make you so much easier to defend.

It was a frustrating review.
I bet it was frustrating to review. If you need a refill on your Zoloft, let me know. I know a guy....
 
I assume Mario subscribes to theory that the team who wins rushing yards and time of possession wins games, which is true but not for the reason he thinks. Case in point, after rushing for 122 yards in regulation to SMU’s -2 yards and holding the ball for an entire quarter more than them to boot (mostly standing around waiting for the play call) this theory’s causation that running the ball and wasting time makes teams win is completely disproven.

As seen in the chart below the team that is winning runs more. That is you have to start winning then you can start running more when it becomes more valuable to burn the time off the clock.

So, at the end of the game the team with more TOP and yards rushed is merely a reflection of the scoreboard not that they found a better way to run the ball.

The chart shows you need to move efficiently for 3 quarters and then when the 4th quarter comes you bury the other team by running in all the gaps until they’re give up and the clock is gone.

If Mario and Dawson don’t get this quickly I’m not sure how you get this team or the next one to the CFP because the Jeremiah Smiths of the world are thanking their stars they didn’t sign up for this and the ones who did are going to rethink their future at the U.
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I mean, to be completely fair, the game. You have the game to lose if your QB throws a pick and now they can kick a FG. But you have to take that chance to try to win the football game.

How much better are your chances of winning a game on the road in overtime versus getting 35 yards in 25 seconds with a timeout?
Come man we lost the game anyway…

We had 25 secs with a timeout and kneeled on the ball and still LOST…

So what exactly did that strategy gain…

Wake Forest and other schools throughout Saturday last week and other weeks in that same situation at least TRIES…

At that point in the game…we had nothing to lose
 
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Here’s what I thought about it. Not the same exact situation, because Wake was down, so they had no choice, but literally LAST WEEK, Wake got the ball against SMU, down by 2, with 12 seconds, on their own 42, needing a FG to win. With NO timeouts.

They completed a 25 yard pass, spiked the ball, and kicked a game winning FG.

This wasn't 6 years ago. It was last ******* week. And our staff, with 1 timeout, 25 seconds, needing, what? 35 yards to give our kicker a reasonable shot? And we take a knee.

Absurd ***** ****. You literally just watched a team ONE WEEK AGO, that's not nearly as talented as you are, get 25 yards on one play. You probably have 4 plays? And you can run anything, since you have a TO. There's zero chance you're going to ever get to a situation where you have to punt. So the literal only thing you're scared about is throwing a pick. Nobody gets near your QB in terms of a pass rush. You're not going to give up a sack/fumble. But you're so scared of letting your QB cook with 25 seconds and timeout, that you just turtle up and play for OT. Embarrassing.

I was in favor of it two years ago against Clemson when we had Emory making his first start. But now you're paying your QB millions, plural. Go try to win the ******* game. Absolute ***** ****.
Mario playing not to lose yet again. Always erring on the side of caution.
 
We talked a lot about the Florida one, I have no issue at all with that because we were getting the ball out of halftime, and we were up 13-0 on a wet field in the rain. We were in total control of the game, and were getting the ball after halftime. IIRC, we were pretty backed up, too. I want my coaches to be aggressive by nature, but just my $0.02, I thought it was 100% the correct way to play that particular situation. I think UiF had under 50 yards of offense, there's no reason to give them the slightest chance of having a short field when you're going to get the ball out of the half.

The end of the SMU game was a completely different scenario. Ever hear the adage, you go for the tie at home and the win on the road? Your kicker has a rocket ship for a leg. I legit would throw him out there from 60, honestly. Maybe he doesn't make it, but he's got a shot to. Let's just say you need to get to the 40 for a 57 yarder. That's 35 yards. You have AT LEAST 3 plays, probably 4. And a timeout. Throw the **** ball and try to win the football game. You just scouted this team all week, one **** week ago they gave up a 25 yard completion on the first play in a similar situation. Throw a 17 yard dig and call timeout. There is no **** reason to play for OT there with a 6th year senior QB.
Our offensive operation often looks so slow, listless, and confused that we probably would’ve let the clock expire even if we did try to be aggressive in this situation 😂
 
Come man we lost the game anyway…

We had 25 secs with a timeout and kneeled on the ball and still LOST…

So what exactly did that strategy gain…

Wake Forest and other schools throughout Saturday last week and other weeks in that same situation at least TRIES…

At that point in the game…we had nothing to lose

I agree with you. I just answered your question. The answer is, the game.

You’re talking like we didn’t throw a Hail Mary down by 6 with 1 second left. That’s the definition of having nothing to lose. The game was tied. We had the game to lose if we throw a pick.

However, that’s a risk you have to be willing to take 100 times out of 100. You’re right. It was nonsense to not at least try to get into FG range there. I know we all hate him and say he sucks but imo that one decision crushes Beck’s confidence 20 fold more than anything else the entire season. Mario treated him like he treated Emory Williams in his first start. Full stop. Ridiculous.
 
I assume Mario subscribes to theory that the team who wins rushing yards and time of possession wins games, which is true but not for the reason he thinks. Case in point, after rushing for 122 yards in regulation to SMU’s -2 yards and holding the ball for an entire quarter more than them to boot (mostly standing around waiting for the play call) this theory’s causation that running the ball and wasting time makes teams win is completely disproven.

As seen in the chart below the team that is winning runs more. That is you have to start winning then you can start running more when it becomes more valuable to burn the time off the clock.

So, at the end of the game the team with more TOP and yards rushed is merely a reflection of the scoreboard not that they found a better way to run the ball.

The chart shows you need to move efficiently for 3 quarters and then when the 4th quarter comes you bury the other team by running in all the gaps until they’re give up and the clock is gone.

If Mario and Dawson don’t get this quickly I’m not sure how you get this team or the next one to the CFP because the Jeremiah Smiths of the world are thanking their stars they didn’t sign up for this and the ones who did are going to rethink their future at the U.
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Good stuff

I said something similar in another thread (**** maybe even this one) without data

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the ground and pound beat them into submission approach when you’re up by a couple scores and want to shorten the game

We just are forgetting the first part. There are people that genuinely enjoy doing things the hard way like it’s a badge of honor. Not sure if he is one of those but it feels that way
 
I agree with you. I just answered your question. The answer is, the game.

You’re talking like we didn’t throw a Hail Mary down by 6 with 1 second left. That’s the definition of having nothing to lose. The game was tied. We had the game to lose if we throw a pick.

However, that’s a risk you have to be willing to take 100 times out of 100. You’re right. It was nonsense to not at least try to get into FG range there. I know we all hate him and say he sucks but imo that one decision crushes Beck’s confidence 20 fold more than anything else the entire season. Mario treated him like he treated Emory Williams in his first start. Full stop. Ridiculous.
If Beck throws a pick on a dig route in that spot, SMU gets the ball at around maybe the 40ish with maybe like 17 seconds left. At that exact point (AFTER the INT), the probabilities of a loss are likely similar to playing a full OT against an opponent away.

That’s to say absolutely nothing of what could happen in a positive way (DPI? Broken tackle?) if the offensive attempt is successful.

There has to be someone in the entire 10+ million coaching crew that understands basic probabilities.
 
If Beck throws a pick on a dig route in that spot, SMU gets the ball at around maybe the 40ish with maybe like 17 seconds left. At that exact point (AFTER the INT), the probabilities of a loss are likely similar to playing a full OT against an opponent away.

That’s to say absolutely nothing of what could happen in a positive way (DPI? Broken tackle?) if the offensive attempt is successful.

There has to be someone in the entire 10+ million coaching crew that understands basic probabilities.

You’d think. But no. Play it like you have a true freshman QB and go to OT. Insanity. Mario has gotten more flack than he’s deserved on this board the last couple years for pure analytical decisions. He’s been halfway decent in go/kick type stuff, for the most part. This one was totally indefensible. 25 seconds is a long time. I get you don’t have Patrick Mahomes, but what did they do against Buffalo a few years ago? Was it 14 seconds?

Just ******* try to win, man.
 
You’d think. But no. Play it like you have a true freshman QB and go to OT. Insanity. Mario has gotten more flack than he’s deserved on this board the last couple years for pure analytical decisions. He’s been halfway decent in go/kick type stuff, for the most part. This one was totally indefensible. 25 seconds is a long time. I get you don’t have Patrick Mahomes, but what did they do against Buffalo a few years ago? Was it 14 seconds?

Just ******* try to win, man.
The most ****ed up thing is I was truly worried about our kicker coming into the season.

He won us the ND game, and if we had just moved the ball 40 yards in 25 whole seconds WITH a timeout AND the clock stopping on first downs, I’d bet he would have won us this slop of a disastrous game, too.

But, I was told during the UF game that my *****ing about not practicing these scenarios with 43 seconds was dumb because we won anyway and it was ‘raining.’

Watching the end of that SMU loss from those HS stands was a disturbing feeling. You should have seen and heard my section’s reaction when we kneeled with 25. None of this is revisionist stuff…
 
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The most ****ed up thing is I was truly worried about our kicker coming into the season.

He won us the ND game, and if we had just moved the ball 40 yards in 25 whole seconds WITH a timeout AND the clock stopping on first downs, I’d bet he would have won us this slop of a disastrous game, too.

But, I was told during the UF game that my *****ing about not practicing these scenarios with 43 seconds was dumb because we won anyway and it was ‘raining.’

Watching the end of that SMU loss from those HS stands was a disturbing feeling. You should have seen and heard my section’s reaction when we kneeled with 25. None of this is revisionist stuff…

What’s really bad is when they made the FG, I walked outside with the dog and my wife said “they have time left” and I said nah I’ll be back in a minute, it’s going to overtime.

There wasn’t 1% of me that was surprised he decided to take a knee. Literally. I didn’t even watch it because I knew with absolute certainty we were taking the game to OT.

A lot of being a fan is second guessing coaches. If a run didn’t work, well you should’ve passed. Etc etc. it’s easy to second guess. I promise you, if we’d have won in OT, I’d have said it was a totally gutless and flat wrong decision to kneel. The result was irrelevant. It’s a tall task to get into FG, and make it. But my god at least try. You paid your QB how much money to take a knee with 25 seconds left AND a timeout? Sickening.
 
What’s really bad is when they made the FG, I walked outside with the dog and my wife said “they have time left” and I said nah I’ll be back in a minute, it’s going to overtime.

There wasn’t 1% of me that was surprised he decided to take a knee. Literally. I didn’t even watch it because I knew with absolute certainty we were taking the game to OT.

A lot of being a fan is second guessing coaches. If a run didn’t work, well you should’ve passed. Etc etc. it’s easy to second guess. I promise you, if we’d have won in OT, I’d have said it was a totally gutless and flat wrong decision to kneel. The result was irrelevant. It’s a tall task to get into FG, and make it. But my god at least try. You paid your QB how much money to take a knee with 25 seconds left AND a timeout? Sickening.
Let’s add another sickening sequence. 1st and 10 at about midfield with about 3 min to go. Run, safe WR flick (might have even gone for a loss), 3rd and long. This is another incredibly missed opportunity. While Marion was straight up held on 3rd down, and they picked up a flag in a bizarre way, I’d prefer to see the ball pushed on an earlier down. If it’s a bad bust or TO, we still have more time to squeeze in another drive. If it’s successful, we potentially go up two possessions. In a similar scenario in 2023, Dawson went for the kill against TAMU. And, we won.
 
Let’s add another sickening sequence. 1st and 10 at about midfield with about 3 min to go. Run, safe WR flick (might have even gone for a loss), 3rd and long. This is another incredibly missed opportunity. While Marion was straight up held on 3rd down, and they picked up a flag in a bizarre way, I’d prefer to see the ball pushed on an earlier down. If it’s a bad bust or TO, we still have more time to squeeze in another drive. If it’s successful, we potentially go up two possessions. In a similar scenario in 2023, Dawson went for the kill against TAMU. And, we won.
Play action deep on first down was the dagger opportunity was still pi / holding. Sigh
 
The fact I went to both the GTech & SMU game & it legit felt the same & was a homecoming field rush is just trash smh! 1-1 in games attended this year & 2-1 last year
 
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