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Upon Further Review: Miami vs. Miami

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Cribby said:
Playing our de’s in a two point stance and dropping them makes sense . Kelly baited the qb and almost got a pick because of it. It causes confusion for the OL and QB. They never know who’s coming outside and on both sides. That’s why Guidry causes so much chaos. His disguising was next level. It was the first time in forever I didn’t know who was coming until right before the snap. Unlike Manny.
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Miami at 12.2% Havoc rate with their front-7. DB's didn't cause any havoc this game, but didn't really get asked to.

They were at 21.3% last year, with front-7 at 14.0%.

I think this was even a vanilla game plan on defense for Miami and they can create a bit more next week when the game is closer and they aren't in cruise control. Personally, I don't mind the dropping of edge players to the flats/overhang. Think it's possible that Harvey was supposed to stop in the flat and the LB was supposed to carry the wheel. It's difficult to know without the play call.

It did look like Harvey was supposed to carry, but that could honestly been quick thinking on his part. Always good for me to acknowledge and state the caveat that without the play call, it's me inferring what I see and at times projecting what should have occurred into my write-ups.
 
Appreicate the writeup as usual Lance. Always learn something.

Couple questions:

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If Rivers were crossed up, wouldn't he be in the second level and not chasing the DE here?

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Any chance he was given a TE # so it wasn't a dead giveaway? Okunlola and Mccoy were both wearing alternate TE/WR #'s (81, 86).

Also, where do you get numbers like havoc rate and line yards? Is that through the API as well or listed somewhere?
 
Lance Roffers said:
Miami at 12.2% Havoc rate with their front-7. DB's didn't cause any havoc this game, but didn't really get asked to.

They were at 21.3% last year, with front-7 at 14.0%.

I think this was even a vanilla game plan on defense for Miami and they can create a bit more next week when the game is closer and they aren't in cruise control. Personally, I don't mind the dropping of edge players to the flats/overhang. Think it's possible that Harvey was supposed to stop in the flat and the LB was supposed to carry the wheel. It's difficult to know without the play call.

It did look like Harvey was supposed to carry, but that could honestly been quick thinking on his part. Always good for me to acknowledge and state the caveat that without the play call, it's me inferring what I see and at times projecting what should have occurred into my write-ups.
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It was very vanilla especially if you watched his Marshall defenses but I get why he stands them up. It’s like a new age nickel version of the 3-4 d built for defending spread offenses. It’s harder to show your hand against spread formations. He showed pressure looks but dropped out. I’m sure we see actual pressures this week
 
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Cribby said:
Playing our de’s in a two point stance and dropping them makes sense . Kelly baited the qb and almost got a pick because of it. It causes confusion for the OL and QB. They never know who’s coming outside and on both sides. That’s why Guidry causes so much chaos. His disguising was next level. It was the first time in forever I didn’t know who was coming until right before the snap. Unlike Manny.
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I also think what people are misconstruing are the visions of Steele's defense where we had Darrell Jackson trying to cover that FSU RB on the wheel and are now thinking Kelly is going to have someone 1 on 1, from what I saw when the DE's dropped they just dropped to a zone in the flat. Maybe some overhang, again hard to tell with the opponent but I am more than comfortable having Kelly cover the flat. He is tall, athletic, did not look out of place at all. He is not a huge liability and it will only make his pass rushing better which is his bread and butter. What I dont want to see is some DE trying to cover a TE or RB at of the backfield 1v1 but it does not appear we do that.
 
Cookie917 said:
I also think what people are misconstruing are the visions of Steele's defense where we had Darrell Jackson trying to cover that FSU RB on the wheel and are now thinking Kelly is going to have someone 1 on 1, from what I saw when the DE's dropped they just dropped to a zone in the flat. Maybe some overhang, again hard to tell with the opponent but I am more than comfortable having Kelly cover the flat. He is tall, athletic, did not look out of place at all. He is not a huge liability and it will only make his pass rushing better which is his bread and butter. What I dont want to see is some DE trying to cover a TE or RB at of the backfield 1v1 but it does not appear we do that.
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Yes , hook zones or flats but i doubt we see much man coverage lol
 
Cribby said:
It was very vanilla especially if you watched his Marshall defenses but I get why he stands them up. It’s like a new age nickel version of the 3-4 d built for defending spread offenses. It’s harder to show your hand against spread formations. He showed pressure looks but dropped out. I’m sure we see actual pressures this week
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++
 
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88 said:
Appreicate the writeup as usual Lance. Always learn something.

Couple questions:

View attachment 255005

If Rivers were crossed up, wouldn't he be in the second level and not chasing the DE here?

View attachment 255006

Any chance he was given a TE # so it wasn't a dead giveaway? Okunlola and Mccoy were both wearing alternate TE/WR #'s (81, 86).

Also, where do you get numbers like havoc rate and line yards? Is that through the API as well or listed somewhere?
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Honestly, yes most likely. The fact he starts chasing immediately is a pretty good indicator he was just beaten. I was trying to be fair to him to mention it's possible something else caused the mistake, but the most likely and simplest answer is yes, he probably just got dusted or missed the snap count (go on 2, he went on 3) type deal.

Different places have their own data, but Cover2.com has some stuff that I recreated for my own use.
 
Cookie917 said:
I also think what people are misconstruing are the visions of Steele's defense where we had Darrell Jackson trying to cover that FSU RB on the wheel and are now thinking Kelly is going to have someone 1 on 1, from what I saw when the DE's dropped they just dropped to a zone in the flat. Maybe some overhang, again hard to tell with the opponent but I am more than comfortable having Kelly cover the flat. He is tall, athletic, did not look out of place at all. He is not a huge liability and it will only make his pass rushing better which is his bread and butter. What I dont want to see is some DE trying to cover a TE or RB at of the backfield 1v1 but it does not appear we do that.
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Correct. They only covered the flats in this game. No overhang drops that I identified with DL. We mugged and simmed pressure and then dropped into overhang with LB's, of course, but not with DL/edge that I saw.

We did some match stuff as well, which was pretty neat.

I'm retired, so not beholden to doing these this year, but asked Danny if he was cool with me doing it when I felt like it. This was sort of an abridged version to keep it shorter, so I didn't get into some of the match stuff as much.
 
Outstanding analysis as others have pointed out.

I am so impressed with Anez Cooper. I think this dude has NFL guard written all over him. His block on the TD was about as perfect as it gets.
 
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@Lance Roffers great writeup as always. Is it fair to say you are much more bullish on both Dawson's and Guidry's play-calling? You rightly praised James Williams for his ST play. But how do you think he performed in his new DB/Strong Nickle role?

Also, I know you concentrated on the snaps where the game was still relatively close. But did you key in on any of the TFs late in the game? Bobby Washington and Wayne stuck out to me as being disruptive. And while he didn't get a lot of looks I saw Ray Ray Joseph running wide open a couple times. Wondering your thoughts on those guys or any true freshman not named Mauigoa, Bain or Fletcher, for that matter.
 
grover said:
@Lance Roffers great writeup as always. Is it fair to say you are much more bullish on both Dawson's and Guidry's play-calling? You rightly praised James Williams for his ST play. But how do you think he performed in his new DB/Strong Nickle role?

Also, I know you concentrated on the snaps where the game was still relatively close. But did you key in on any of the TFs late in the game? Bobby Washington and Wayne stuck out to me as being disruptive. And while he didn't get a lot of looks I saw Ray Ray Joseph running wide open a couple times. Wondering your thoughts on those guys or any true freshman not named Mauigoa, Bain or Fletcher, for that matter.
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It's tough to put too much stock in the garbage time plays against a G5 team also putting in their backups, but the thing I tend to look for in those situations is how do they look physically. How do they look from a technique standpoint.

All of the players you mentioned at least look like they could contribute this season if something were to happen.

The freshman class they brought in looks like the real deal on high school film, in person in pads, and their movements on the field thus far. Even Emory had a throw that made you sit up and say, "ok, that's nice."
 
88 said:
Lance, you think Rivers can hold up at LT this season?
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I think Rivers can be a solid starting LT in the ACC. I do not believe LT is his position in the pros, and I believe he's going to be one of those college players who moves from LT to LG his last season and really settles there.

I also believe that all five of the starting OL play in the NFL and that's something we haven't seen since the Stoutland days.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
I think Rivers can be a solid starting LT in the ACC. I do not believe LT is his position in the pros, and I believe he's going to be one of those college players who moves from LT to LG his last season and really settles there.

I also believe that all five of the starting OL play in the NFL and that's something we haven't seen since the Stoutland days.
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Interested to know if you’ve looked at the A&M DL to see how they match up. There’s another thread where someone posted their 247 writer’s opinion of the matchup and essentially said they should be able to beat us at the LOS. For example called Cohen stiff and Lee weak against big NTs.
 
Lance Roffers said:
I think Rivers can be a solid starting LT in the ACC. I do not believe LT is his position in the pros, and I believe he's going to be one of those college players who moves from LT to LG his last season and really settles there.

I also believe that all five of the starting OL play in the NFL and that's something we haven't seen since the Stoutland days.
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This is a great point. Maybe I'm a homer, but I genuinely believe all 5 of the starting offensive linemen make a 53 man roster when it's their time. How many teams in the country can say they have 5 NFL offensive linemen? I'll bet it's not many.
 
Lance Roffers said:
They don't have data that will get you there, honestly. I'm building a ML algorithm right now for recruiting and it's difficult to really get features that move the needle because we don't have the data quality.
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Have you two seen any of the Amazon Thursday Night AI ads?

Write-up
www.theverge.com

Amazon is bringing a whole lot of AI to Thursday Night Football this season

Amazon’s plan is to make it easier for you to make sense of the game on the field.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com

This technology is going to impact the game very soon but I don't believe it will impact recruiting due to the quality of HS data.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
This is a great point. Maybe I'm a homer, but I genuinely believe all 5 of the starting offensive linemen make a 53 man roster when it's their time. How many teams in the country can say they have 5 NFL offensive linemen? I'll bet it's not many.
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With the look of McCoy and Samson, we could have 8 (assuming Zion gets to 100%). Will be interesting to see if Tripp, Tinilau, and Kinsler can make the jumps like the 2022 kids.
 
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