Updated flow chart for the Canes to win the Coastal

[Arileus]

as of 11.15

 

[Sigma_Cane_7]

as of 11.14

thank you but not a chance.

 

[Canes1135]

Lol.

 

[Lokest]

Just need vt to implode but not too much lmao

 

[JoNJoN]

We got dis. Clemson scurred.

 

[JTKoval]

VaTech playing poorly enough to lose to GT during the same period when playing well enough to beat Virginia. I think only we could pull that off. Wait, we did.

 

[brock]

I dont See why we would need va tech to lose twice?

if va tech, Miami, uva, Pitt all end up 5 and 3 Miami would have the tie breaker right?

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

I dont See why we would need va tech to lose twice?

if va tech, Miami, uva, Pitt all end up 5 and 3 Miami would have the tie breaker right?

I have no idea how the tie breakers work, but your logic sounds correct.

 

[chirrio]

I have no idea how the tie breakers work, but your logic sounds correct.

I think i read that the next tie breaker is record vs tied teams. VT would have the same record as Miami (2-1) in such scenario.

 

[Cognizantphotos]

I have no idea how the tie breakers work, but your logic sounds correct.

Except we lost to V-tech.

 

[ssvir]

These are my updated odds ....

 

[Lokest]

I dont See why we would need va tech to lose twice?

if va tech, Miami, uva, Pitt all end up 5 and 3 Miami would have the tie breaker right?

Miami is 4-3 with 1 ACC game left with a best possible scenario of 5-3
Virginia tech is currently 3-2 with 3 games left. Best possible scenario 6-2 which eliminates miami
Virginia leads and has one more game left against virginia tech

We need tech to end up at 4-4 (eliminating themselves) while also beating virginia so we can own the tiebreaker over virginia.

 

[L A M P]

The most simple way to figure it is VT won't lose to GT & will be representing the CoaRstal.

 

[252cane]

The most simple way to figure it is VT won't lose to GT & will be representing the CoaRstal.

I think uva will win it

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

As I’ve said in another thread, using some simple statistical modeling, our chances are 3% (0.03125). Tonight‘s result changed nothing.

The only mathematical quibble you might have with my calculation is that I assume each desired result as having a 50-50 chance of occurring. In other words a coin toss. Which considering that the remaining matches are somewhat evenly matched, that’s not a terrible assumption.

Changing some of the contests to 70/30 or 60/40, really doesn’t change the end result that much. It’s still going to be a single digit percentage probability.

In other words while the probably probability isn’t zero, it’s **** close to it

 

[calinative umstudent]

Miami is 4-3 with 1 ACC game left with a best possible scenario of 5-3
Virginia tech is currently 3-2 with 3 games left. Best possible scenario 6-2 which eliminates miami
Virginia leads and has one more game left against virginia tech

We need tech to end up at 4-4 (eliminating themselves) while also beating virginia so we can own the tiebreaker over virginia.


View attachment 101993

We don't NEED Vtech to lose to both GTech and Pitt, we just need them to lose to Pitt. It would definitely help us, but it wouldn't absolutely be neccessary. We would have the tie breaker in the event of a 4 way tie between US, UVA, VTech, and Pitt if that's what it came down to. Because UVA will have lost to us and Vtech, Vtech will have lost to Pitt and UVA, and Pitt will have lost to UVA and us. The only team in that group of 4 with 2 wins vs the other teams is us, giving us the tie breaker.

This is Minimum for us to win the Coastal:

- Miami > Duke 11/30
- Pitt > Vtech 11/23
- VTech > UVA 11/29
- BC > Pitt 11/30

That's all that matters, as far as I'm aware. If any of those specific games go a different way, we are eliminated.

 

[TriStarCane]

We ****ed

 

[calinative umstudent]

As I’ve said in another thread, using some simple statistical modeling, our chances are 3% (0.03125). Tonight‘s result changed nothing.

The only mathematical quibble you might have with my calculation is that I assume each desired result as having a 50-50 chance of occurring. In other words a coin toss. Which considering that the remaining matches are somewhat evenly matched, that’s not a terrible assumption.

Changing some of the contests to 70/30 or 60/40, really doesn’t change the end result that much. It’s still going to be a single digit percentage probability.

In other words while the probably probability isn’t zero, it’s **** close to it

We only need 4 games for us to win the Coastal. Not 5, so it'd be double those chances (assuming 50/50).

If we assume our game against Duke is a 100% chance of winning (because if we don't this is all pointless anyways), then the chances are 12.5%.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

We only need 4 games for us to win the Coastal. Not 5, so it'd be double those chances (assuming 50/50).

If we assume our game against Duke is a 100% chance of winning (because if we don't this is all pointless anyways), then the chances are 12.5%.

Yea - I was using 5 games. So you see what I was doing.

Assuming we only need four games, changes the calculation of course. But not really that much in terms of order of magnitude.

From a statistical viewpoint though, giving us 100% as a probability at Duke isn’t consistent with the other assumptions to an uninterested observer. JMO - it’s been over 20 years since I had statistics.

In any event, your assumptions or mine, the probability is very low.

 

[mdpcane]

how about some "Good Will Hunting" genius do the calculations for a formula where Rosie O'Donnell is crowned Miss Universe ? might be better odds of that happening.