Updated Chart

[Headhunter]

Edwards took BYU to a NY6 bowl by year 3
Holtz won a bogus Nat’l Title by year 3
Ford won a Nat’l Title by year 3
Dooley won his conference and a NY6 bowl by year 3
Bryant lost one game in year 3, won a Nat’l Title by year 4
James won his conference and a NY6 bowl by year 3

Only McCartney & Ross took a while, w/ Ross winning a Nat’l Title in year 4.

So based upon these examples, we should expect Mario to either win the ACC, win a Nat’l Title, or play for a NY6 bowl (or all 3) by next season.

Thank u for ur examples

And according to the chart Gene Chidzik is the greatest coach of the modern era

 

[Rellyrell]

And Gene Chidzik is the greatest coach of the modern era

Wouldn’t Know; he only coached 6 yrs w/ a 38-38 record & Auburn fired him 2 yrs after wining a chip.

Regardless, I think u’re having a hard time grasping the 2-3 year rule of thumb; it’s not a finite rule vs. a guideline based upon history. Providing an 8% outlier doesn’t justify or disprove the data provided.

It’s OK, most fanatics don’t b/c they’re too busy trying to rationalize vs. being objective.

 

[Headhunter]

Wouldn’t Know; he only coached 6 yrs w/ a 38-38 record & Auburn fired him 2 yrs after wining a chip.

Regardless, I think u’re having a hard time grasping the 2-3 year rule of thumb. It’s OK, most fanatics don’t b/c they’re too busy trying to rationalize vs. being objective.

no just going by the chart the numbers dont lie, Gene Chidzik had the greatest turnaround, why mad?

 

[Firesite]

It really sucks cause I am/was a Mario supporter. I have had my doubts after this year if he will be successful here. At this point Im wondering who can be successful here. We have been going around in circles the last couple decades trying to find a coach that isn't a complete moron on game day. On one hand I want to give Mario time and then on the other we can't beat Rutgers. Next year Im hoping for 9 wins but if things continue looking the way they are I can see another 7 win season.

 

[Rellyrell]

no just going by the chart the numbers dont lie, Gene Chidzik had the greatest turnaround, why mad?

And y in the world would I be mad? Lol. And where in any part of my response to u does it remotely hint that I’m mad? Lol.

Aye listen blood; lemme do u a favor; have a great night and keep hope alive. By year 3, we should see what’s being built, b/c even ur examples proved this.

 

[Headhunter]

And y in the world would I be mad? Lol. And where in any part of my response to u does it remotely hint that I’m mad? Lol.

Aye listen blood; lemme do u a favor; have a great night and keep hope alive. By year 3, we should see what’s being built, b/c even ur examples proved this.

word

 

[mcnaire2004]

okay so all these coaches below had to "stack classes" build their roster up and did not win 9 games in first 2 years::

Lavell Edwards, (7-4 , 5-6) 1984 NC

Lou Holtz, (5-6, 8-4) 88 tainted NC

Bill McCartney (2-8-1, 4-7) 1990 NC

Danny Ford (8-4, 6-5) 1981 NC

Vince Dooley (7-3-1, 6-4) 1980 NC

Bear Bryant @Bama (5-4-1) (7-2-2) 1979 NC

Bobby Ross GaTECH (2-9, 3-8) won the 1990 NC

Don James UW (6-5 ,5-6) won the 1991 NC

(omitting Shug Jordan & John McCay because both wins were prior to 1979 even though both played 10 game seasons)

1983 championship on makes 40 years. You're bringing up guys before that. At some point you have to terminate so you have more useful relevant data. For example 1936 data isn't useful today. Honestly I think BCS era forward for relevant data and there it 100% confirms to my assertion. That's 25 years. 40 years and we now have (with your help) a total of 5 exceptions. And that's with more than 40 championships (due to split titles).

Bobby Ross and Don James had "coaches poll" split championships. Don James split his with us. Their omissions were a mistake. However they still qualify as the extremely rare exception.

If you go beyond 40 years (as you have) then you start finding your point of view relevant.

 

[TheEye]

Excellent post! I doubt that the MarioBro’s will actually pay attention and see the writing on the wall. Most of them still haven’t been able to put 2 and 2 together.

The narrative has been that Mario needs top tier caliber talent in order to even win 10 games. Next season will be interesting, as almost the entire team will be made up of Mario’s recruits.

But knowing our CiS Mario die-hards, they will make up more excuses next season. It never fails.

I think the narrative is most of those coaches never answer a phone call coming from Hecht.

 

[mcnaire2004]

Just to clarify,
I have hated our offense the last two years.
I was on team Lane Train.
I do think coaching/recruiting matter equally.

This chart is a bad way to make any point. It’s subjective by using only two years. It also neglects the fact that many corches had two successful first years. Corch Clappy went undefeated. This chart also doesn’t show how much the big players have invested because they believe in Mario. Mario’s trajectory is likely tied to the QB position IMO. He is Jimbo Fisher/Dabo Swinney. Get us a Jameis, Lawrence, or Watson and we will compete for a national title. Without an NFL QB, we will struggle. I didn’t come to that conclusion by reading this stupid chart.

Jimbo and Dabo are on the list. Mario is not on their trajectory at all. The chart doesn't go into why they were successful or not. Only if they were.

You're right that it doesn't go beyond 3 years (prior to arrival and following two). There is already, with this limited perimeter, a trend. This trend is 100% for the past 25 years and near 90% at 40 years.

There are plenty of coaches who fit this and never won a championship. The reverse is not true in modern history. It is a first indicator if you will.

 

[mcnaire2004]

And according to the chart Gene Chidzik is the greatest coach of the modern era

It doesn't say that at all.

 

[Headhunter]

1983 championship on makes 40 years. You're bringing up guys before that. At some point you have to terminate so you have more useful relevant data. For example 1936 data isn't useful today. Honestly I think BCS era forward for relevant data and there it 100% confirms to my assertion. That's 25 years. 40 years and we now have (with your help) a total of 5 exceptions. And that's with more than 40 championships (due to split titles).

Bobby Ross and Don James had "coaches poll" split championships. Don James split his with us. Their omissions were a mistake. However they still qualify as the extremely rare exception.

If you go beyond 40 years (as you have) then you start finding your point of view relevant.

yes tis strange that Don James and Bobby Ross were both mysteriously expunged from the list considering their ****** first 2 years...hmmmm

Each and every coach i listed was included on the chart you are using to prove your narrative. that is your chart i didnt create it and i only went back to 1979 instead of 1983...thats only a 4 year diffrence but if you need to cut off those 4 years to empower your portrayal then feel free its your chart

 

[Headhunter]

It doesn't say that at all.

i think its pretty clear according to the chart he inherited the worst record team and had the greatest turnaround and the greatest number of wins on his 2nd year

 

[mcnaire2004]

yes tis strange that Don James and Bobby Ross were both mysteriously expunged from the list considering their ****** first 2 years...hmmmm

Each and every coach i listed was included on the chart you are using to prove your narrative. that is your chart i didnt create it and i only went back to 1979 instead of 1983...thats only a 4 year diffrence but if you need to cut off those 4 years to empower your portrayal then feel free its your chart

The chart started last year on this board as going back to the BCS era. I was bored so kept going back year after year. How long does it take championship coaches to win at least 9 games? How long do CHAMPIONS need to turn a program around.

The mistakenly omitted because they weren't AP poll champions and held a split. I have fixed the omission. If you see anymore let me know.

My point is near 90% at the 40 year mark. 100% at the 25 year mark (the BCS). How about yours?

 

[mcnaire2004]

i think its pretty clear according to the chart he inherited the worst record team and had the greatest turnaround and the greatest number of wins on his 2nd year

Yes you're using him as a point to try and say there is a myriad of ways to interpret the data. You are correct.

How can we fit him into the data? Can it be he's the greatest coach of the modern era? No, because the parameters would have to be larger to come to a conclusion on that.

What do championship coaches have in common? If you make the parameters too big it may be difficult to find strong trends. Here is a minimum stepping stone I have found championship coaches seem to accomplish.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

I’m a Mario supporter but this is absolutely a strike against him. However I will say that Mario was never shown as a “great coach”….he was shown as a guy that can assemble talent and the conference - I say he gets 4yrs to win the ACC and if nothing by then, he won’t make it to Year 5 of his deal.

As someone who has been an extremely vocal critic of Mario, the irony is that ultimately I absolutely support him because he is the head coach of my Miami Hurricanes. It's really a tough place to be because there are so many things that Mario does extremely well. Despite his well documented flaws he is as elite a recruiter as there is in the country. He is also very skilled at building program infrastructure and he has done wonders for this program in that regard. He may not be the source of the money that is rebuilding our infrastructure but that money is there because Mario is here. What makes it so difficult is that his weaknesses are so egregious and he compounds that by being so darn stubborn! It can literally drive you crazy. I'm not going to go into specifics because at this point it isn't necessary.

When Mario was hired those who knew the time of day knew that his staff hires would be of absolute paramount importance. By now it should be obvious to everyone just how important building the best staff possible is to a coach like Mario. The fact that we are still working on that is frustrating but understandable. I've said it a million times and I'll say it again. Mario needs to destroy the perception out there about him ruining QBs and about him having boring offenses. Mario is many things but he isn't so myopic that he can't see that he must shed those labels and perceptions and do it as quickly as possible. That's why it was so important for him to land a guy like Ward. Ward signs with us, comes in and has a great year with the offense moving up and down the field scoring points and in a year our offensive system has some valuable credibility with recruits and like that Mario would go a long way towards getting that stigma removed. That's how important Ward was which is why I can understand his one track mind in this case. We still have the possibility of Taulia Tuavagiloa getting his waiver and signing with us so there is hope. Whatever happens this was always going to take a few years from when he started for many reasons most of those being obvious now. I distinctly remember all of the talk of winning 10 games in year 1 and I also distinctly remember one of this boards most astute posters @Rellyrell imploring everyone to calm down and be patient because this was not going to be solved/fixed overnight. I don't know if Mario is going to get it done or not but I will say that the man is in this to play the long game. Mario frustrates the heck out of me sometimes but I also realize that if he does things his way that we are going to have to be patient. My man @Rellyrell was on point from the beginning and I'm trying my best to be patient.

 

[Coach Macho]

We're 10-2 if our QB isn't a turnover machine.

The player who has the most power in his hands, and can determine outcomes more than just about anybody on the field, decided to be a dogsh!t leader and play every game like he gave zero fvcks. (and so did quite a few other players)

You're not gonna win games while being like 94th in turnover margin.

I don't know how anybody can watch teams like Michigan and Georgia (or any 10+ win team) and think Miami has the same level of players. Watch the QB play mainly. It's not even freakin' close.

Tell me how you win games with a guy like TVD at Quarterback.
Unless yall think Mario is responsible for TVD's lackluster play.

 

[Rellyrell]

As someone who has been an extremely vocal critic of Mario, the irony is that ultimately I absolutely support him because he is the head coach of my Miami Hurricanes. It's really a tough place to be because there are so many things that Mario does extremely well. Despite his well documented flaws he is as elite a recruiter as there is in the country. He is also very skilled at building program infrastructure and he has done wonders for this program in that regard. He may not be the source of the money that is rebuilding our infrastructure but that money is there because Mario is here. What makes it so difficult is that his weaknesses are so egregious and he compounds that by being so darn stubborn! It can literally drive you crazy. I'm not going to go into specifics because at this point it isn't necessary.

When Mario was hired those who knew the time of day knew that his staff hires would be of absolute paramount importance. By now it should be obvious to everyone just how important building the best staff possible is to a coach like Mario. The fact that we are still working on that is frustrating but understandable. I've said it a million times and I'll say it again. Mario needs to destroy the perception out there about him ruining QBs and about him having boring offenses. Mario is many things but he isn't so myopic that he can't see that he must shed those labels and perceptions and do it as quickly as possible. That's why it was so important for him to land a guy like Ward. Ward signs with us, comes in and has a great year with the offense moving up and down the field scoring points and in a year our offensive system has some valuable credibility with recruits and like that Mario would go a long way towards getting that stigma removed. That's how important Ward was which is why I can understand his one track mind in this case. We still have the possibility of Taulia Tuavagiloa getting his waiver and signing with us so there is hope. Whatever happens this was always going to take a few years from when he started for many reasons most of those being obvious now. I distinctly remember all of the talk of winning 10 games in year 1 and I also distinctly remember one of this boards most astute posters @Rellyrell imploring everyone to calm down and be patient because this was not going to be solved/fixed overnight. I don't know if Mario is going to get it done or not but I will say that the man is in this to play the long game. Mario frustrates the heck out of me sometimes but I also realize that if he does things his way that we are going to have to be patient. My man @Rellyrell was on point from the beginning and I'm trying my best to be patient.

I for sure called for patience b/c I knew what was in store; however, what I thought was going to be more/less a talent acquisition issue. The concern I see has been from a coaching aspect. The kneel is one thing, but even last yr I saw poor clock management and situational coaching.

So no, I’m not throwing in the towel, & my patience is not ran out. The only ire are excuses made; there are no more excuses used for this upcoming season. It should be at least 10 wins, period. Easy schedule, great classes, Manny’s players gone except X & Rivers. No more excuses.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

I for sure called for patience b/c I knew what was in store; however, what I thought was going to be more/less a talent acquisition issue. The concern I see has been from a coaching aspect. The kneel is one thing, but even last yr I saw poor clock management and situational coaching.

So no, I’m not throwing in the towel, & my patience is not ran out. The only ire are excuses made; there are no more excuses used for this upcoming season. It should be at least 10 wins, period. Easy schedule, great classes, Manny’s players gone except X & Rivers. No more excuses.

Exactly and the issues with coaching, clock management and situational things are what I was referring to in my post when I mentioned the negative aspects of Mario that I said should be obvious to everyone right now. In terms of no more excuses I'm in complete agreement but I have to throw out a caveat about the QB situation. We must find a good consistent starter who can lead this offense and run it somewhat close to it's potential. I think 10 wins is a must and certainly not too much to ask at this point but if we do not address the QB position to satisfaction then it's very possible that this is an 8 maybe 9 win team including a possible bowl win. I'm not going to be caught off guard by Mario's coaching inadequacies. Not this time.

 

[Rellyrell]

Exactly and the issues with coaching, clock management and situational things are what I was referring to in my post when I mentioned the negative aspects of Mario that I said should be obvious to everyone right now. In terms of no more excuses I'm in complete agreement but I have to throw out a caveat about the QB situation. We must find a good consistent starter who can lead this offense and run it somewhat close to it's potential. I think 10 wins is a must and certainly not too much to ask at this point but if we do not address the QB position to satisfaction then it's very possible that this is an 8 maybe 9 win team including a possible bowl win. I'm not going to be caught off guard by Mario's coaching inadequacies. Not this time.

The reason y I can’t give that an excuse b/c the entire QB room is their evaluation now.

TVD was inherited & was completed chitted on by the fan base “all of sudden.” OK, he’s gone now; we had a whole 2024 class to obtain a top tier HS QB, but we were told Judd is the guy and he has elite traits that Mario is looking for. Cool.

Emory was said to have been an Elite 11 super star, again a hand picked guy from 2023. Cool.

Now, the staff loves the upside of FCS yardage leader Reese Poffenbarger. Another Eval.

Jacurri Brown, recruited by Manny, kept by Mario & only coached by Mario.

We’ve been told we’re dealing w/ an elite evaluator, cool. This whole QB room is on him & the staff. So if this season sucks based upon QB play, that’s strictly on him. Again, no excuses bro. I’m sorry.

 

[Bender]

Turnovers are by far the most important metric in football.

No. Points are. Parcells always pointed up to the scoreboard, because thats the only thing that matters.

Bills had three turnovers vs the Chargers, committed more penalties for much higher yardage, had a ****** inefficient run game and lost the TOP by six minutes.

They won 24-22.