I'm just going to be honest here.
What makes Ivins SAY (not just "believe") that "Baker & Patke are more and more likely to be staying"?
Is Manny calling them both each day saying "Today, you are up to a 25% chance of staying"?
Ivins is guessing, based on the same impatient UM fan nonsense of "Well, Baker and Patke are still employed as of today".
Again, I'm not saying they WILL be fired or that they WON'T be fired. But let's not pretend that ANY "likelihood" has changed. "Per what he's hearing".