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UM-Duke Opening Line

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WeBallinBoyz said:
Great line from Vegas to be honest.

Remember - they don't want to pick the winning side per say; they want as close to 50/50 action as possible. The less exposure the better, and the vig (for those not familiar, the juice you pay on a bet: i.e. -110 or -115 for a spread) is their moneymaker.

-10 Immediately will get bet down as it already has, but you'll most likely see it stop around 7.5, maybe 7. At that point, public will certainly see the names alone and take Miami at home. More seasoned bettors might latch onto these possible narratives:

- Miami finally notched an ACC win and can build some momentum against a team that's severely over-achieved based on various metrics. Miami certainly has the more talented roster and is finally tailoring their play-calling to TVD's strengths.
- Duke lost in heartbreaking fashion to their rival and now is 0-2 in ACC play, tough to rebound the following week.

Miami money most likely comes pouring in later in the week, I bet this is -8.5 or -9 at kickoff. Right where they (Vegas) wants it.
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It’s at 8.5 right now.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
While that's true, I think it's more accurate for the "squarer" games (NFL, primetime college games, etc.). As we saw today - just a lot more parity in pro sports, even those double digit spreads. We'll certainly see though - if there is lopsided action, I would also think it's in Duke's favor. Could see it closing around a TD, but I don't think it'll cross 7.
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I agree. I think it should have opened at 7 if they wanted 50/50. I actually like the canes just based off the line.
 
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AboutTheU05 said:
Miami is 0-6 against the spread this year….

Actually 0-5, I don’t believe Bethune had a line
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Actually there was a line, a huge one, on the Bethune game. I forgot what it was but I found it on a site the morning of the game and made a parlay bet on Miami with the over and won. But you’re correct, other than the Bethune game our Canes are 0-5 against the spread.
 
Vegas is trying to take all of your money so you high NIL donors will have empty pockets come signing day.

Yup, that's gotta be it.
 
Ghandi said:
Duke + the points.

Miami can't defend what Duke does on offense.

They'll have the Time of Possession advantage and win by 3-6pts.
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If our DL can't set the edges, their RBs will have field day... their whole offense is running to the outside ....with the occasional QB run up the middle
 
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They probably think at some point we're gonna play a game where we don't muff punts, or drop passes, or rack up 150 penalty yards, or....

I don't think we will.
 
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