FL Cane
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- Aug 26, 2018
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Another week of being just short - literally and figurately. Miami comes within 7 of another Top 10 opponent but doesn't do enough to get the W. Here are some thoughts and next steps.
- Give big credit to Tyler Van Dyke. Most on this board, I included completely discounted any chance of him playing even average football today. Ultimately, he went above and beyond, and even though he's not the vocal leader we may want, he's tough as ****. He won't be here at Miami next year, regardless of the draft or if he transfers, but wish him the best regardless. Did everything he could today to put us in a position to win.
- It's been repeated time and time again, but Mark Fletcher is gonna be a **** of a back for us. He's only going to get better, and this RB room is only going to get better.
- OL run blocking today was good, but the pass blocking was atrocious at times. Probably the most uneven performance from the OL all year. Regardless, we still had a chance to win this.
- Our inability to scheme a TE into this offense is mind-boggling. We've seen Riley Williams make catches, I don't understand why we can't give him 1-3 targets a game at least. This is an area that will hurt TE recruiting. Who wants to come play TE for an offense that uses them as an extra blocker 99% of the time?
- Restrepo had a big comeback game from last week. Jacolby and Colbie had some nice plays. This WR room is good but lacks an elite playmaker. Either get one in the portal or hope that you can develop one (on this end, there's some cause for hope. Also, #0 needs to be getting at least 10 touches a game on offense. He's electric in space.
- By far, our defense had its worst performance of the year. Brohm ran circles around Guidry. JW20 and Kam were consistently out of position and blowing coverages. We couldn't stop their tight ends. This loss is not on our offense. You'll rarely win a game if you let the other team score 38
- We were missing LT56 today. Our lack of pressure up front gave UL the ability to always be a step ahead of us on D. We need to hit the portal hard for DTs
- Tackling was atrocious today. That's all that needs to be said; it was remarkable to see us miss tackles we've made all year.
- There are games this year that we have lost because of coaching. GT and NCST are the most obvious that come to mind. All in all, though, we did not lose this game because of coaching. Coaching isn't responsible when you have two DBs crash into each other and your All-American safety takes a bad angle on a long TD. Coaching isn't responsible when the #3 safety on Mel Kipper's Draft Board blows a coverage letting a TE get an open TD. Coaching isn't responsible when your D misses a ton of tackles they've made all year. Mario Cristobal has the ultimate responsibility for the mess that has been this season and his mistakes that have cost us, but he's not the primary reason we lost today. A reason, yes, but not the main one.
- I said at the beginning of this year that 8-4 was the minimum to be expected from this team and that anything below that would be a disaster. It is, bar none, a failure. It's a shame too, because there's measured progress across the entire roster. OL is miles better than last year. RB's are miles better. WRs have done well under the beard and continue to progress. The defense has made major improvements. Last year we lost our games by: 8, 14, 3, 24, 42, 30, and 26. That's an average margin of loss of 21 points. This year we've lost by 3, 10, 14, 7, and 7. That's an average margin of loss of 8 points (granted, year isn't done yet). Unfortunately, QB has been inconsistent and coaching hasn't been what it needed to be, especially on offense. We also have some low football IQ players that have killed us with costly penalties, like today. That's where we're at, progress, but not in the column that counts.
- As for Mario Cristobal, I've said all year and will continue to say (until next year at least) that it's TBD whether he works out here. The fact is that there's plenty of CFB coaches that struggle in years 1-2 and make a jump in year three. Some examples:
- Steve Sarkisian: 5-7, 8-5
- Mike Norvell: 3-6, 5-7
- James Franklin: 7-6, 7-6
- Dabo Swinney: 9-5, 6-7
- Mack Brown: 7-6, 8-4
- This isn't to say that Mario will succeed here; again, it's TBD, but it wouldn't be surprising to take a step in Year 3.
- Ultimately, Mario was hired to win. We haven't done that enough, close to enough, at this point. Year 3 will be a make-or-break year for him. If Year 3 fails, he will fail. History shows that turnarounds routinely happen in year 3, though it does not show that it'll take till year 4. It is hard to see other teams succeed much quicker than we have, Louisville being a prime example of that. I think the big difference between our programs is that Louisville wasn't a smoldering radioactive ruin, and Brohm is a good coach. That's a program that, since Charlie Strong was hired in 2010, has been relatively successful. Meanwhile, we had five failed regimes. Their only failed regime, by comparison, was Satterfield's. Additionally, Louisville went the route of the building by the portal, bringing in 25 guys last year. Notice today that all the guys making plays for them were transfers. For better or for worse, we've decided to go the developmental route. Question marks on if we can develop, of course. I do think we need to use the portal far more and target QB, DT, and S in particular. There won't be any more patience if Year 3 is a mess too.
- There are two games left in yet another disappointing season. Bobby Bowden used to say that, "First you lose big, then you lose close. Then you win close, and finally, you win big." For this program's sake, we have to hope (and there's some evidence to show) that we're in the lose-close stage. Ultimately, it's on MC to figure out how to be a better gameday HC, and how to pull crucial transfers from the portal, and how to get to make a big jump in year three. Otherwise, we might as well call him a Scott Frost clone.
- Also, the class should be fine. The whole point of recruiting is to show prospects that "if we had you, [insert name], on this team, we'd be winning." There's definitely some positional progress to sell, and we've gone toe to toe with two Top Ten teams back-to-back weeks. This would be a completely different conversation if we were getting blown out like last year.
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