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UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)

dk72 said:
I watched both games as well. L'Ville did not look better. There was NOTHING about their performance that stood out relative to ours. Their passing game was better, but they also passed a lot more and with lower completion percentage. They also got a lot of yards on two long completions that should have been interceptions, Cunningham basically threw the ball up for grabs and the defensive backs didn't get them. Their running game was nowhere near as good as ours. They averaged well under 4 yards/carry.

Defensively, they gave up just about the same number of yards we did....and about the same points. WKU and UAB are very similar in ability.

Am I confident that our LBs and CBs are up to the task? The OL and WRs? No, they are not world beaters. But again, literally nothing in the WKU game done by L'Ville showed them to be better. We very well could lose the game, but L'Ville looked no better in their game than we did.

I also watched the Notre Dame game. People are talking about Notre Dame being a possible playoff team. They struggled in their first game, against Duke. A Duke team that very well could lose to UAB if they played.

But the rule around here is if Miami doesn't look amazing....they suck, it's over, end of the world.

If any other team, including those playing against Miami, don't look amazing.....it's just to be expected, early in the season, or other "but....." excuses.
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100% agree on ND. Based on N=1, not even close to CFBPO form.
 
SouthParkCane said:
Thank you. I’m so tired of all this soft *** **** on this board man. It’s one thing to be cautious but some of you don’t even sound like CANES. We should handle this **** just like last year
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Thank you. There are far too many soft shouldered simps around here. They worry about UAB, they worry about Louisville. I can't wait to hear them talk up FSU.
 
Hurracanes said:
Has the line moved?
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The vig has at Pinnacle and it’s mostly trending in our favor. Not only is Pinnacle the most efficient with lines because it takes more action than any other casino (at least as of a few years ago, Draft Kings may have changed that with legalized sports gambling), but it moves its vig by the penny, as you can see here. This, while other casinos move the juice from -110 to -115 then maybe -120, you can see the penny moves at Pinnacle and know which way other sites will likely move their number because of the granular lines they offer. Still a lot of time before the game, I don’t see this closing at 2.5, it’ll either go to 2 or 3. And then we will have a **** good idea what to expect because the late move is often right.
6E973B40-0C9A-4942-BEB0-33EFD1117B4A.webp
 
Poptimus said:
The vig has at Pinnacle and it’s mostly trending in our favor. Not only is Pinnacle the most efficient with lines because it takes more action than any other casino (at least as of a few years ago, Draft Kings may have changed that with legalized sports gambling), but it moves its vig by the penny, as you can see here. This, while other casinos move the juice from -110 to -115 then maybe -120, you can see the penny moves at Pinnacle and know which way other sites will likely move their number because of the granular lines they offer. Still a lot of time before the game, I don’t see this closing at 2.5, it’ll either go to 2 or 3. And then we will have a **** good idea what to expect because the late move is often right.
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Have a link to this screenshot?
 
Poptimus said:
The vig has at Pinnacle and it’s mostly trending in our favor. Not only is Pinnacle the most efficient with lines because it takes more action than any other casino (at least as of a few years ago, Draft Kings may have changed that with legalized sports gambling), but it moves its vig by the penny, as you can see here. This, while other casinos move the juice from -110 to -115 then maybe -120, you can see the penny moves at Pinnacle and know which way other sites will likely move their number because of the granular lines they offer. Still a lot of time before the game, I don’t see this closing at 2.5, it’ll either go to 2 or 3. And then we will have a **** good idea what to expect because the late move is often right.
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Miami has been one of the hardest teams to bet in the last 15 years.

Made a killing during the AG tenure. Same with Richt. Last year we were double digit favorites 3 times and lost.

I wouldn’t bet on us at all in this match up.

UL is home. Has more continuity. We are terrible with extra days to prepare.

I think UL covers. Hopefully we roll them tho but I’m staying away from betting on this one
 
I was going to put some money on Miami for this game, until I saw this stat: the Canes have lost 23 of their past 26 games away from home vs. ranked teams.

Only way I'll bet this game is if the line moves up to 3. As it sits right now at 2.5, I'm not going to touch it.

If you feel Miami will win, then take the under. I don't see Miami winning in a shootout. Our defense is going to have to step up, particularly in the secondary if we're going to pull this thing out.

GO CANES!!!
 
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M3N said:
Miami has been one of the hardest teams to bet in the last 15 years.

Made a killing during the AG tenure. Same with Richt. Last year we were double digit favorites 3 times and lost.

I wouldn’t bet on us at all in this match up.

UL is home. Has more continuity. We are terrible with extra days to prepare.

I think UL covers. Hopefully we roll them tho but I’m staying away from betting on this one
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Line movement has been very accurate on our games the past few years. And although we barely covered vs. UAB, line movement was right there, too.
 
M3N said:
Miami has been one of the hardest teams to bet in the last 15 years.

Made a killing during the AG tenure. Same with Richt. Last year we were double digit favorites 3 times and lost.

I wouldn’t bet on us at all in this match up.

UL is home. Has more continuity. We are terrible with extra days to prepare.

I think UL covers. Hopefully we roll them tho but I’m staying away from betting on this one
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So you're saying we've been losing a lot of games we should win the past 15 years? I'm shocked!
 
This team has had some coaching, mental, and just unexplainable losses in the past 15 years.
I’ve rewatched that UNC game 2 times and for several stretches in that game it looked like we were going to break that game open and smoke them.
During that 15 year time span I’ve seen very few games where all 3 phases of a game actually did well for an entire game and it’s never happened for several game stretches.
With the talent and recruiting discrepancies we have with Louisville we should never be considered a 2.5 point underdog.
If it wasn’t for the vast amount of data showing the constant and repetitive underperformance of this team we would easily be at least a td favorite.
 
King of Allapattah said:
I was going to put some money on Miami for this game, until I saw this stat: the Canes have lost 23 of their past 26 games away from home vs. ranked teams.

Only way I'll bet this game is if the line moves up to 3. As it sits right now at 2.5, I'm not going to touch it.

If you feel Miami will win, then take the under. I don't see Miami winning in a shootout. Our defense is going to have to step up, particularly in the secondary if we're going to pull this thing out.

GO CANES!!!
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Be careful with the rankings theory. Would Louisville be ranked if the B1G and Pac-12 schools were playing?
 
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